European Scenarios of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation:
Focus on PolandJ. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok,
C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, L. Hoeglund-Isaksson, P. Rafaj, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter, F. Wagner
Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development (APD) Programme
Outline
• European air pollution policy process
• Methodology of integrated assessment modeling
• Revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and links to the EU climate policy
• Results for Poland
Air pollution control policy in Europe
• UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution – 2008: Gothenburg Protocol under review
• EU level, recent developments:– 2003: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) Programme established– 2005: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP)
proposed– 2008: Revision of the NEC Directive based on targets from
TSAP
The RAINS approach
for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies
SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM
Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone
Policy targets on air quality
IIASA’s RAINSoptimization model
The GAINS approachfor identifying cost-effective emission control strategies
(GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies )
SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM
Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone
Policy targets on air quality
IIASA’s GAINSoptimization model
GHGs
Policy target on
GHG emissions
NEC revision process
• Several scenarios for 2020 analyzed• IIASA calculated
– Ceilings for air pollutants– Impact indicators– Control costs
• Bilateral consultations with Member States• Interim results presented to expert groups• Final scenarios ready, currently discussed within the
Commission• Proposal for the revised NEC Directive expected
soon
Activity scenarios for NEC analysis
• Climate and Energy Package (C&E):– minus 20 % GHG, access to CDM– 20 % renewable energy target– continuation of the ETS system– targets for non-ETS sectors– reductions of non-CO2 GHG based on GAINS analysis– energy demand and CO2 reduction – PRIMES energy model– agriculture – national scenarios
• Sensitivities:– PRIMES Baseline (continuation of the ETS system)– National energy scenarios
Cost curves for non-CO2 GHG for 2020 – an example
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140%
Emissions relative to 2005
Mar
gin
al c
ost
s, E
uro
/t C
O2e
q
CH4 N2O F-gases Total non-CO2 c n f t
Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months
2020 (4.2 months)
2000 (8 months)
Forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, %
2020 (3% of total)
2000 (19 % of total)
Poland: Non-ETS GHG emissions in 2020
Source: EC, DG ENV
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005 Baseline C&E Package
CO2 Non CO2
Poland: “current policy” emissions of air pollutants
To achieve Thematic Strategy targets, emissions need to be further reduced by 5-20 % of 2000 level
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 NMVOC
kilo
ton
s/ye
ar
2000 2020 National
2020 PRIMES Baseline 2020 PRIMES C&E Package
Poland: Environmental effects of the NEC scenario
Unit 2000 Improvement
Loss of life expectancy due to exposure to particulate matter
months 10 45%
Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification
% 60 97%
Premature mortality from ozone Number of cases 1350 20%
Concluding remarks
• Revision of European air pollution control legislation will bring substantial environmental benefits
• European level research does not replace national assessment
• Exchange of information between European and national models facilitated through NIAM network
• IIASA will be happy to share the experience with Polish modellers
More information:
www.iiasa.ac.at/rains
