Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook
Roham AbtahiNat’l Hydrologic Information Coordinator
OCWWS HSD
Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook
Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook
How is LRO produced?
RFCs1. Run Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction (ESP)2. Run script which parses CS data
by % of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stage
3. Transmits output to NIDS, who populates national level AHPS “Experimental Long Range River Flood Risk” tab
Issuance Timing4. RFCs are required to transmit 3
month outlooks by the 28th of each month.
5. At 23z on the 28th, the national map switches to the next three month valid time
6. Can send updates as often as they like, but updates are not required
WFO Hydro Program Manager Role
WFOs1. Check your local HSA to make sure
long range probs look reasonable
2. Look for inconsistencies between color of forecast point, and actual exceedance graph of that point
What do I do if I find an error?3. Call RFC and let them know – most
errors will be solved at this level
4. Contact your Regional HPM
5. Submit a TOC ticket (rare case)[email protected]
FYIRaw national level compilation of RFC probability data
water.weather.gov/ahps/download.php
Questions?
Alaska Region: [email protected]
Western Region: [email protected]
Central Region: [email protected]
Southern Region: [email protected]
Eastern Region: [email protected]
Pacific Region: No long range forecast points
Me: [email protected] 301-713-0006 ext 150