2010 CONSULTING PARTNERS MEETING
Exploring the role of water security in regional economic development
Dr Mohamed AIT KADI
Technical Committee Chair
Stockholm, September 2010
13 Regional Water Partnerships
73 Country Water Partnerships
2,069 Partners in 149 countries
Creating platforms for regional cooperation
Water as a catalyst for regional cooperation
«but the water problems of our world need not be only a cause of tension; they can also
be a catalyst for cooperation…If we work together, a secure and sustainable water future
can be ours… » Kofi Annan
5
Plan of this talk
• Why the present Age of Globalisation should be supplemented by an Age of Global/Regional Cooperation?
• What are the drivers of Regional Water Cooperation?
• What are the key implications for GWP?
Why global/regional cooperation?
Water
Food
Energy
CC
Finance
Conflicts
Problems are interconnected Cannot be solved by 1 country
WaterClimateChange
EnergyAgriculture
The problems are interconnected
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Agriculture-Water-Climate Change nexus
WATER
AGRICULTURE CLIMATECHANGE
FSRai
nfed
/ Irr
igat
ion
Gre
en W
ater
/Blu
e W
ater
Scarcity/Droughts/Floods
IWR
MMitigation /AdaptationAg. Reforms
Yield declinesCrop and livestock losses
Change in agricultural geographyBiofuels
Problems can’t be solved by countries acting in isolation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
200
400
600
800
US
$/b
arre
l
US
$/to
n
Corn
Wheat
Rice
Oil (right scale)
Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.
Diverse policy responses to food crisis
Trade restriction
Trade liberaliz.
Consumer subsidy
Social protection
Increase supply
AsiaBangladesh X X X XChina X X X XIndia X X X X XIndonesia X X XMalaysia X X XThailand X X X
Latin AmericaArgentina X X X XBrazil X X XMexico X X XPeru X X XVenezuela X X X X
AfricaEgypt X X X XEthiopia X X X XGhana X XKenya XNigeria X X XTanzania X X X
Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports, 2007-08.
The age of consequences
State failures
International conflicts
MigrationsDifficulties of supplying cities
Increasing food insecurityMore competition over water resources
Rio
ts
Political Stability
Food Security
Energy Security
The volatility in food prices in 2008 should be treated as a warning sign of what is to come!
Opportunities for Water Cooperation
Type of Cooperation The Challenge The Opportunities
Increasing the benefits to the river
Degraded water quality, watersheds, wetlands, and biodiversity
Improved water quality, river flow characteristics, soil conservation, biodiversity and overall sustainability
Increasing benefits from the river
Increasing demands for water, sub-optimal WRM-D
Improved WRM (Agri +hydrop) flood-drought management, navigation, environmental conservation, water quality and recreation
Reduced costs because of the river
Tense regional relations and political economy impacts
Coop & Dev (dispute/conflict resolution, food/ energy self-sufficiency), security
Increasing benefits beyond the river
Regional fragmentation Integration of regional infrastructure, markets and trade
C.W. Sadoff, D. Grey / Water Policy (2002)
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Plan of this talk
• Why the present Age of Globalisation should be supplemented by an Age of Global/Regional Cooperation?
• What are the drivers of Regional Water Cooperation?
• What are the key implications for GWP?
Geography
Resources endowment/variability
Trade
Democracy & Governance
Power asymmetries
Diplomatic relations
Political regimes
Colonial heritages….
Drivers of regional water cooperation
Resources endowments
coopCoop
wsS
Climate change impact on resources endowment & variability
Coop
WS
Model-Projected Runoff Change (%)[(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)]
(Milly et al., 2005)
Increasing risk
Trade
Trade
Geography
Resources endowment/variability
Trade
Democracy & Governance
Power asymmetries
Diplomatic relations
Political regimes
Colonial heritages….
Drivers of regional water cooperation
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Plan of this talk
• Why the present Age of Globalisation should be supplemented by an Age of Global/Regional Cooperation ?
• What are the drivers of Regional Water Cooperation?
• What are the key implications for GWP?
Key implications for GWP
Promote water security within the water/food/energy/trade/economic development nexus.
Identify opportunities for building regional cooperation.
Encourage the inclusion of water on regional economic integration agendas.
Key implications for GWP
IWRM deserves constant reinforcement through technical and political requirements
Catalyse multisectoral platforms on development challenges and their solutions.
Nurture shared visions of the future that can serve as a basis for cooperation.
Comment nourrir l’humanité?