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JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc
January 2010
Rukhshad Shroff, CFARajendra Nair, CFA
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Two consecutive, outlier years
Positive Years: 22 (73%) 2004 13
Negative Years: 8 (27%)2002 4
1997 19
2001 -18 1994 17 2007 47
2000 -21 1993 29 2006 47
1998 -16 1989 17 2005 42 2009 80
1996 -1 1984 7 1992 37 2003 73
1995 -21 1983 7 1990 35 1999 64
1987 -16 1982 4 1988 51 1991 82
2008 -52 1986 -1 1980 25 1981 54 1985 94
Year % Year % Year % Year % Year %
-30 to -60 -30 to 0 0 to 30 30 to 60 >60
Range of returns (%)
Source: MOSL, 11/1/10
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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustCumulative performance to 30thSeptember 2009
* Includes the return from the bonus of subscription shares in November 2008Source: Morningstar, JPMAM. Total returns in .
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years % % % %
JPM IndianDiluted NAV 28.7 35.5 205.7 350.0
JPM IndianUndiluted NAV 37.5 44.8 226.6 380.8
JPM IndianReturn to Shareholders 45.1* 34.5 198.0 490.1
MSCI India Index# 47.1 56.6 238.7 255.6
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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustPerformance update
^ Inception: 1/7/94* Undiluted. Excludes the impact of any subscription share dilutionSource: Morningstar, JPMAM. Total returns in .
Since Inception^6 months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Annualised
% % % % % %
JPM IndianNAV* 25.2 59.2 36.0 186.5 260.9 9.9
MSCI India Index# 31.4 80.6 50.5 206.7 235.7 7.6
Relative performance -6.2 -21.4 -14.5 -20.2 25.2 2.3
Fund Size 462.3m
As at 31stDecember 2009
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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustCumulative performance since launch
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
7/94 7/95 7/96 7/97 7/98 7/99 7/00 7/01 7/02 7/03 7/04 7/05 7/06 7/07 7/08 7/09
JPM Indian IT (NAV)
JPM Indian IT (Share Price)
MSCI India (NDR) (Prior to 1 Oct 03, BSE100)
Source: Bloomberg, JPMAM, Thomson Reuters Datastream
As at 31stDecember 2009
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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustTop ten holdings
Stock Name Sector Market Cap m % of Fund
1 Reliance Industries Energy 47,691 12.0
2 Infosys Technologies Information Technology 19,836 10.8
3 HDFC Bank Financials 9,666 6.7
4 Housing Development Finance Corp. Financials 10,136 6.7
5 ICICI Bank Financials 12,993 6.0
6 Bharat Heavy Electricals Industrials 15,655 4.9
7 Tata Consultancy Services Information Technology 19,540 3.5
8 Tata Motors Industrials 2,660 2.8
9 Maruti Suzuki India Consumer Discretionary 5,998 2.7
10 Infrastructure Development Finance Financials 12,603 2.7
58.82
Source: JPMAM
As at 31stDecember 2009
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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustSector weighting
Source: JPMAM
As at 31stDecember 2009
5.6%
12.4%
3.9%2.6%
4.6%
14.2%
1.0%
30.1%
15.8%
9.8%
Financials
Energy
Information Technology
IndustrialsMaterials
Consumer Discretionary
Utilities
Health Care
Consumer Staples
Cash
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Big picture view
We think the Indian economy can double in 5-6 years time to ~US$2 trillion.
The share of investment, historically neglected, will increase as India finally takes infrastructure seriously.
Consumption will continue to grow and remain dominant, driven by favourable demographics.
Corporate earnings could double in ~4-5 years
Foreign investment + re-allocation of domestic savings pool = positive for equities
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India remains a compelling early stage growth opportunity
Source: IMF, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Years from Beginning of Economic Progress
PPP-Adjusted Per Capita GDP, US$
India Philippines
Malaysia
Korea Taiwan
Japan
Hong Kong
China
Singapore
Thailand
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Reaping the demographic dividend
Source: NCAER; E= NCAER estimates, 7/1/10
Growing Middle Class (% Share of Households)
* Note: Africa includes a group of 56 countries. Source: UN, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10
India the Largest Contributor to Growth in the Working Population Over the Next 10 Years
WorldAfrica
IndiaSouth East
Latin America
ChinaWestern AsiaUSA
JapanEurope
Addition to working agepopulation by 2019
StockPosition 2009E
4457568765388379
96314521082500
534159
13854
51
333212
-8-18
In Millions
Low (114)
Middle (75)
Upper-Middle (22)
High (10) 4%
10%
34%
52%Low (135)
Middle (41)Upper-Middle (9)
High (3) 1%5%22%
72%
F2002 F2006E F2010E
Low (132)
Middle (53)
Upper-Middle (14)
High (5) 2%7%
26%
65%
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Positive demographics = growing savings pool = sustainable growth
Source: CEIC, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research, 20/1/10Source: CEIC, CSO, Morgan Stanley Research, 20/1/10
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
F1970 F1976 F1982 F1988 F1994 F2000 F2006
Savings Investments
% of GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
China
Singapore
Malaysia
India
Thailand
HongKong
Ind
onesia
Korea
Japan
Taiwan
EU
US
% of GDP
Savings as % of GDP, 2008
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Low penetration will drive consumption
Source: IIFL,15/1/10
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Government Statistics Departments, 7/1/10
Domestic Two Wheeler Volumes % of Population Owning Two Wheelers
Auto Penetration (vehicles per thousand) versus GDP perCapita (PPP adjusted)
Source: IIFL,15/1/10
0
2
4
6
8
10
FY84
FY85
FY86
FY87
FY88
FY89
FY90
FY91
FY92
FY93
FY94
FY95
FY96
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10ii
Mn units
0
20
40
60
80
Malaysia
Thailand
VietnamItaly
Indonesia
Japan
Spain
Germany
France
China
Brazil
ArgentinaIran
India
UK
Russia
P
hilippines
TurkeyUS
Mexico
%
China
U.S.
Japan
UKGermany
Poland Czech Republic
PortugalDenmark
France
Spain
Netherlands
Italy Canada
Taiwan
South Korea
Brazil
MexicoRussia
MalaysiaHungary
Norway
India0
250
500
750
1,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
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...while rising infrastructure spending will be another pillar of growth
E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates;Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates;Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
India: Infrastructure InvestmentIndia: Infrastructure Investment
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
F2000
F2001
F2002
F2003
F2004
F2005
F2006
F2007
F2008
F2009E
F2010E
F2011E
F2012E
% of GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
F2000
F2001
F2002
F2003
F2004
F2005
F2006
F2007
F2008
F2009E
F2010E
F2011E
F2012E
US$ bn
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Infrastructure: Where is the money going?
Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 20/1/10
US$ bn
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Electricity Roads Telecom Railways Irrigation Water Ports Airports Storage Gas
F1998-F2002 IXth F2003-F2007 Xth
F2008-F2012 Xith (E)
Infrastructure Spending
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E = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesSource: Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10
E = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesSource: Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10
India & China: Infrastructure Investment (US$ bn)India & China: Infrastructure Investment
Chindia: Comparisons are at least indicative
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
India China
% of GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
India China
US$ bn
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C + I = higher and more resilient growth
Source: CSO, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, 1/12/09
Quarterly GDP Growth Trend (% YoY)
6.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
6/97 12/97 6/98 12/98 6/99 12/99 6/00 12/00 6/01 12/01 6/02 12/02 6/03 12/03 6/04 12/04 6/05 12/05 6/06 12/06 6/07 12/07 6/08 12/08 6/09
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Source: CSO, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10 Source: Ministry of Commerce, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10
Export Decline NarrowsIndustrial Production
A near V shaped recovery
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
YoY%YoY%, 3MMA
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
6/96 6/98 6/00 6/02 6/04 6/06 6/08
US$ Terms
Rupee Terms
YoY%, 3MMA
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Ultimately feeding through into corporate earnings
Source: MOSL, 11/1/10 Source: MOSL, 11/1/10
Sensex EBITDA GrowthSensex Sales Growth
Source: MOSL, 11/1/10
Sensex PAT Growth (YoY)
25283942 33
24
126
313043 33 30 26
171925 21
-11-16-20-18
18
39
1QFY05
2QFY05
3QFY05
4QFY05
1QFY06
2QFY06
3QFY06
4QFY06
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10E
4QFY10E
2027
34
23 21 20 1622
33 30 3222
37 36 3844
31 28
4
-7-12
-5
1928
1QFY05
2QFY05
3QFY05
4QFY05
1QFY06
2QFY06
3QFY06
4QFY06
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10E
4QFY10E
1724
37
24 26
10 1118
2531
37
22 2628
20 2325
19
-8-13-10
-5
25
41
1QFY05
2QFY05
3QFY05
4QFY05
1QFY06
2QFY06
3QFY06
4QFY06
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10E
4QFY10E
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Earnings could double in less than 5 years
81 129
181 250 266 291 278 280 216 236
272 348
450 523
718833 820 814
1076
1308
1576
1874
FY93
FY94
FY95
FY96
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
FY93-96:
45% CAGR
FY96-03: 1% CAGR
FY03-08:
25% CAGR
FY08-10E:
-1% CAGR
FY10-14:
23% CAGR
Source: MOSL, 11/1/10
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Valuations: Not cheap, but.
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
MSCI India PE
5
10
15
20
25
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Average
since 1995
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
MSCI India PB
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Average
since 1995
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Institutional activity is getting more balanced
Source: SEBI, BSE, Morgan Stanley Research, 19/1/10 Source: SEBI, BSE, Morgan Stanley Research, 19/1/10
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
C2000 C2001 C2002 C2003 C2004 C2005 C2006 C2007 C2008 C2009
FII (Cash)Domestic mutual funds flowsInsurance co. flows
US$ mn
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Risks
Inflation and interest rates
Global risk appetite
Oil price
Twin deficits
Geopolitics
The unexpected
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Summary
India remains a compelling early stage growth opportunity
Infrastructure spending and consumption will drive GDP growth
Which in turn will drive earnings growth and profitability
The opportunity will be punctuated by risks and volatility
yet, the market could potentially double in 3-4 years
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Appendix
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The JF and JPMorgan India team
The India team
Edward PullingManaging Director,
15 years of India-related experience
Rukhshad ShroffManaging Director,
18 years of India-related experience
Rajendra NairVice President,
10 years of India-related experience
Johnny WongDealer,
12 years of India-related experience
Nandkumar SurtiVice President,
18 years of India-related experience
Harshad PatwardhanVice President,
16 years of India-related experience
Amit Gadgil
6 years of India-related experience
Ravi Ratanpal4 years of India-
related experience
Rohit Agarwal4 years of India-related
experience
Karan Sikka4 years of India-
related experience
The Hong Kong team
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2009: An extraordinary turnaround
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Bloomberg, 14/1/10Please note : China A Share : SHCOMP, for H-Share : HSCEIACWI : All countries world index (Developed world + Emerging markets)World Index : Developed markets
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
Indonesia
India
ChinaA-
Share
Taiwan
EM
Korea
APxJ
Singapore
ChinaH-
Share
ACWI
Europe
2009 2008
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..as BRIC economies lived up to the hype
Source: IMF, 11/1/10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1
990
1
991
1
992
1
993
1
994
1
995
1
996
1
997
1
998
1
999
2
000
2
001
2
002
2
003
2
004
2
005
2
006
2
007
2
008
20
09F
20
10F
20
11F
20
12F
20
13F
20
14F
Brazil China India Russia US Euro zone
%
GDP growth %
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Relative performance (on a FY basis)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
F95 F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09
Fund return
Benchmark Return
%
Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co., 31/12/09Benchmark: MSCI India Net
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Performance review: 2009 = the worst of all worlds
Bottom up, stock specific
Medium/long term time frame, with an average of3 years holding period
Overweight domestic growth plays
Quality & blue chips penalised
~9% cash in 1Q
Our Strategy The Market
Macro, factor driven
Extreme volatility in the last 12 months, withstrong rotational tendencies
Driven by global commodities, beta and leverage
Leverage and beta rewarded
~100% move up in 3 months
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XIth Five Year Plan Infrastructure Spending EstimatesInfrastructure Spending
Infrastructure
Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012
Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
VIIIth IXth Xth Xith est
Infrastructure Spending
Five Year Plans
US$ bn
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
Planning Commission MS
XIth Five Year plan Infrastructure Spending Estimates
US$ bn
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Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10
Source: Planning Commission, 15/1/10
Source of FundingSources of Funding: Debt & Non-Debt
But who will fund it?
Non-Debt
US$267 bn
DebtUS$247 bn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
F2002-F2007 F2008-F2012
Publ ic Private
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Infrastructure: Where is the money going?
Sector F1998-F2002 F2003-F2007 F2008-F2012
IXth plan Xth plan Xith plan (E)
Electricity 29 64 167
Roads 3 32 79
Telecom 10 23 65
Railways 10 26 65Irrigation 13 24 63
Water 9 14 36
Ports 2 3 22
Airports 2 1 8
Storage 0 1 6
Gas 0 2 4
Total spending (US$ bn) 78 190 514
Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 20/1/10
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Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10
Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10
Debt Sources
Infrastructure financing
Gap
US$41 bn
Domestic Bank
CreditUS$106 bnPension/
Insurance Companies
US$14 bn
External Commercial
Borrowing
US$31 bn
Non-Bank Finance Companies
US$56 bn
Centre
US$191 bn
Private
US$155 bn
States
US$168 bn
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Urbanisation will be a structural growth driver
Source: UN population division, World Urbanisation prospects, 7/1/10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
USA European union China India
2005 2030
%
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Investment themesRoads: Ambitious plans
Source: NHAI, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
6/05 9/05 12/05 3/06 6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 9/07 12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 11/09 Target
Qtrly Avg in
F2006 = 245kms Qtrly Avg inF2007 = 193kms
Qtrly Avg in
F2008 = 475kms
Qtrly Avg in
F2009 = 656kms Avg b/w
Jun-Nov09 = 498kms
Target is to take the qtrly avg to 1750kms
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Investment themesInsurance
World Insurance Penetration Rate(Premium as % of GDP) in 2008
World Non-Life Insurance Premium Growth5 Year (CAGR)
World Life Insurance Premium Growth5 Year (CAGR)
16.2 15.7
11.89.2 8.7 7.8 6.6
4.4 4.3 3.3 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.3
0
5
10
15
20
Taiwan
U
K
South
Kore
a
Franc
e
U
S
Singapore
German
y
Ind
ia
Malaysia
Chin
a
Brazil
Russia
Mexic
o
Philippine
s
Indones
ia
%
-40
-20
0
20
40
Indonesia
India
China
Brazil
Mexico
UK
Taiwan
Singapore
Philippines
Malaysia
SKorea
World
France
US
Germany
Russia
%
Source: IIFL, 11/1/10 Source: Swiss Re, CEIC, IIFL Research, 11/1/10
Source: IIFL, 11/1/10
0
10
20
30
Russia
China In
dia
Brazil
South
Korea
Mexico
Indonesia
Philippines
World
Singapore
Malaysia
France
Taiwan
US
Germany UK
%
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Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,15/1/10 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,15/1/10
China leads India by a wide margin..
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
03 04 05 06 07 08 09
India Bank Credit to Commercial Sector
China: Credit
US$ bn
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09
India Credit to GDP
China: Credit to GDP
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but does she offer a glimpse into Indias future?
Source: FactSet, 15/1/10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
SBI ICBC Bharti Airtel China Mobile RIL PetroChina
US$ bn
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Relative valuations
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
MSCI PB: India relative to EM
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Average
since 1995
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
MSCI PE: India relative to EM
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Average
since 1995
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The valuation premium is well deserved
Source: Worldscope, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
India EM AC World Asia Pac ex-Japan BRIC
ROE trends
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Risks: Inflation is a concern in the short term..
Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, 19/1/10
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4/95 2/96 12/96 10/97 8/98 6/99 4/00 2/01 12/01 10/02 8/03 6/04 4/05 2/06 12/06 10/07 8/08 6/09
Headline Inflation (WPI)Non Food InflationFood Inflation
YoY%, monthly average
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but monetary tightening is not bad for equities in the long term
Source: Bloomberg, RBI & CLSA 15/1/10
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1/04 7/04 1/05 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
CRR Sensex (RHS) Repo
(%)
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Risks: Fiscal deficit is a concern but is improving incrementally
Note: *Here the off-budget items include expenditure on food, fertilizer and oil. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Source: RBI, Economic Survey, Ministry of Finance, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
F1990
F1991
F1992
F1993
F1994
F1995
F1996
F1997
F1998
F1999
F2000
F2001
F2002
F2003
F2004
F2005
F2006
F2007
F2008
F2009E
F2010E
F2011E
F2012E
Central Fiscal Deficit State Fiscal DeficitIntergovt Transfers Major off-budget itemsCombined Headline Deficit*
As % of GDP
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Risks: Global risk appetite
Source: Bloomberg, 14/1/10
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200BSE Sensex Trend EMBI spread (RHS)
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RisksOil!
Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10 Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
3/01 12/0 9/02 6/03 3/04 12/0 9/05 6/06 3/07 12/0 9/08 6/09
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
WTI US$ per barrel (RHS)
Current Account (as % of GDP, annualized)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
3/01 12/0 9/02 6/03 3/04 12/0 9/05 6/06 3/07 12/0 9/08 6/09
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%WPI Inflation (RHS)
WTI US$ Per Barrel
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Risks: Geopolitics has been a perennial concern
Source: Anand Rathi Securities, 14/1/10
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
1/91 8/92 3/94 10/95 5/97 12/98 7/00 2/02 9/03 4/05 11/06 6/08 1/10
Sensex
Sensex
PM Rajiv
Gandhi's
assasination
Mumbai Serial
Bomb Blasts
Communal riots
across the country
Coimbatore bomb
blast kill 60
Serial blast in
Jaipur
Blast in Indo -
Pak Train
Mumbai train Blasts
Multiple bomb
blasts in Delhi
Twin bomb blasts in
Mumbai including atthe Gateway of India
Indo - Pak Border
Tension
Terror attack on
Indian Parliament
Border conflict
with Pakistan
Nuclear
Tests
Mumbai
Terror
attacks
Blast in Delhi
Blasts inAhmedabad
UPA's
win inGeneral
election
Assam
serial
blasts
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Macro economic forecasts
* Total of Central and State Government deficit does not tally due to inter-governmental transactions. E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates; Source: RBI, CSO, Budget Documents, and MorganStanley Research.
Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, Bloomberg, SEBI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
Years Ending March 31 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010E F2011E F2012ENational Income
GDP (US$ bn) 478 507 600 700 810 913 1,173 1,157 1,232 1,490 1,814Gross domestic product 5.8% 3.8% 8.5% 7.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.0% 6.7% 6.7% 8.0% 7.6%Agriculture and Allied activities (incl. mining) 5.9% -5.9% 9.3% 0.8% 5.7% 4.4% 4.7% 1.8% -1.1% 5.0% 3.0%Manufacturing, Constn, Electricity 2.8% 6.9% 7.8% 10.5% 10.7% 11.2% 8.5% 3.9% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3%Services 7.2% 7.5% 8.5% 9.1% 10.6% 11.2% 10.9% 9.7% 8.6% 8.7% 8.7%Money and BankingMoney Supply (M3) growth (avg) 16.2% 16.3% 13.1% 14.2% 16.1% 19.6% 21.8% 20.3% 18.0% 20.0% 20.0%Bank non-food credit (avg y-y increase) 11.9% 25.0% 17.2% 27.5% 33.7% 31.3% 24.3% 24.1% 15.0% 23.0% 25.0%Interest rates91-Day T-Bill Yield (year-end) 6.2% 5.8% 4.3% 5.2% 6.5% 7.4% 7.3% 4.7% 5.3% 6.8% 7.0%Repo Rate (year-end) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 7.5% 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 6.5% 6.8%PricesWholesale price index (avg y-y increase) 3.7% 3.4% 5.5% 6.5% 4.4% 5.4% 4.7% 8.4% 3.2% 5.3% 5.5%External sectorCurrent account 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports (US$ bn) 44.7 53.8 66.3 85.2 105.2 128.9 166.2 188.2 173.9 216.9 261.5Imports (US$ bn) 56.3 64.5 80.0 118.9 157.1 190.7 257.8 301.9 293.4 364.2 441.6Exports as % of Imports 79% 83% 83% 72% 67% 68% 64% 62% 59% 60% 59%Invisibles, net (US$ bn) 15.0 17.0 27.8 31.2 42.0 52.2 74.6 89.6 92.5 115.2 138.3Current account balance (US$ bn) 3.4 6.3 14.1 (2.5) (9.9) (9.6) (17.0) (24.1) (27.0) (32.2) (41.8)Debt creating capital inflows (US$ bn) 2.3 (1.8) (2.1) 6.2 7.0 22.2 24.9 15.1 8.1 14.5 16.5Total capital -net (US$ bn) 8.6 10.8 16.7 28.0 25.5 45.2 108.0 2.4 56.2 67.3 74.8Foreign currency reserves (US$ bn)* 54.1 75.4 111.6 140.1 150.9 198.7 308.7 251.3 292.7 325.0 363.3
Average exchange rate (USD/INR) 47.7 48.4 45.9 45.0 44.3 45.2 40.3 46.0 48.0 44.9 41.6Year end exchange rate (USD/INR) 48.7 47.6 45.0 43.7 44.5 44.0 40.4 51.3 49.0 42.9 41.0
External debt (US$ bn) 98.8 105.0 111.7 123.2 138.1 171.3 224.6 229.9 239.6 255.6 272.1External debt as a percentage of GDP 20.7% 20.7% 18.6% 17.6% 17.1% 18.8% 19.1% 19.9% 19.5% 17.2% 15.0%Fiscal deficit (As % of GDP)-----Central government 6.2% 5.9% 4.5% 4.0% 4.1% 3.5% 2.7% 6.1% 6.8% 5.8% 4.7%
-----State government 4.1% 4.1% 4.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.9% 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% 2.3%-----Consolidated Deficit * 9.9% 9.6% 8.5% 7.5% 6.7% 5.6% 4.9% 9.4% 10.0% 8.4% 6.9%
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Macro indicators
Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, Bloomberg, SEBI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
Trade Balance (US$ billion) -6.1 -1.7 -3.1 -5.0 -5.2 -6.2 -6 .0 -8.4 -7.8 -8.8 -9.7 NA
Exports (US$ billion) 12.4 11.4 12.9 10.7 11.0 12.8 13.6 14.3 13.6 13.2 13.2 NAExports (YoY) -16.8% -24% -25% -33% -29% -28% -28% -19% -14% -7% 18% NA
Imports (US$ billion) 18.5 -1.7 -3.1 -5.0 -5.2 -6.2 -6.0 -8.4 -7.8 -8.8 -9.7 NAImports (YoY) -19.2% -37% -32% -37% -39% -29% -37% -32% -31% -15% -3% NA
Foreign Direct Investment (US$ million) 2733 1488 1956 2339 2095 2582 3476 3268 1512 NA NA NA
Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ billion) 247.8 248.5 251.3 252.1 261.1 263.3 270.3 275.0 278.5 282.8 285.3 282.1
Net FII Flows (US$ million) -869 -539 64 1,477 4,257 695 2,403 827 4,141 1,791 1,142 1,520
Rs/US$1 (period average) 48.8 49.2 51.2 50.1 48.5 47.8 48.4 48.4 48.4 46.7 46.6 46.6
M3 (YoY) 17.9% 19.6% 18.6% 20.8% 20.5% 20.2% 20.0% 19.4% 19.0% 18.3% 17.8% 17.2%
Bank Loans (Non-food credit, YoY) 19.4% 18.5% 17.5% 18.1% 16.1% 15.2% 15.9% 14.2% 13.0% 10.1% 10.5% 12.7%
Deposit Growth Rate (YoY) 20.8% 18.7% 21.0% 19.8% 22.5% 22.0% 21.6% 21.8% 20.5% 19.8% 18.9% 18.0%
Prime Lending Rate 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%
One Year Deposit Rate 8.5% 8.5% 7.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%364 day T-Bill Yield 4.6% 4.7% 5.0% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
91 day T-Bill Yield 4.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.3%
10 yr Government Bond Yield 5.9% 6.0% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
Industrial Production 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 2.1% 8.3% 7.2% 10.6% 9.6% 10.3% 11.7% NAManufacturing( in %) 1.0% 0.2% -0.3% 0.4% 1.8% 8.0% 7.4% 10.6% 10.0% 11.1% 12.7% NA
Consumer Goods 3.6% -1.3% 1.3% -4.6% -1.1% 4.4% 9.7% 10.9% 9.4% 11.9% 11.1% NA
Basic Goods -0.7% -0.1% 1.9% 4.5% 3.8% 10.7% 4.7% 7.7% 6.5% 4.6% 6.0% NACapital Goods 6.6% 15.9% 11.8% -6.3% -5.9% -3.6% 13.4% 1.7% 9.2% 13.3% 11.0% NA
Intermediate Goods -7.2% -3.0% 1.9% 7.9% 6.6% 7.9% 9.8% 14.4% 11.2% 15.2% 19.4% NA
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 8.7% 8.6% 9.3% 11.9% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 11.5% NA
Wholesale Price Index (YoY)
- All Commodities 4.9% 3.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% -1.4% -0.7% -0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 4.8% NA