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This is Your Brain on Stocks:
Behavioral Economics, Neuro-Finance,
& Investor Decision-making
Presentation by Barry Ritholtz
Forbes Investor Conference
Crystal Symphony Day at Sea
Thursday, July 5, 2012
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Agenda
Behavioral Economics, Neurofinance, & Cognitive
Psychology: A brief overview of how it impacts the
decision-making processes of Investors/Traders.
The 10 Biggest Mistakes Investors Make
The Coming Generational Bull Market
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This is Your Brain.
This is Your Brain on Drugs1987 PSA
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Thisis
your
brain
Your brain weighs 3 pounds, and is 100,000 years old. It is a
dynamic, opportunistic, self-organizing system of systems.
MRI machines & Neurologists have revealed what our brains looks like. We can observe it 1) in real time;
2) under actual conditions, and 3) as it reacts to stimuli of risk/reward in capital markets.
Once we begin trading stocks, however, our brains begin to undergo subtle physical change that we canactually see in the MRIs of Traders . . .
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Thisis
your
brainon
stocks
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How Does Your Brain Interfere With Your Investing?
1. Herding, Groupthink
2. Experts: Articulate Incompetents
3. Optimism Bias
4. Confirmation Bias
5. Recency Effect
6. Emotions change the way we
perceive events (e.g., Sports, Politics)
7. Anticipation vs. Rewards
8. Selective Perception & Retention
9. A Species of Dopamine Addicts
10. Anticipation versus Reward
11. Monkeys Love a Narrative
12. Cognitive Errors Impact Processes
Behavioral Economics Neuro-Finance
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A brief intro to
BehavioralEconomics
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Source: Kal, Economist
Herding
Mutual of Omaha
Lone Gazelle
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Sources: Ritholtz.com, NYT, McKinsey, Marketwatch
Wall St. Groupthink: Buy Buy Buy!
1. Only 5% of Wall StreetRecommendations Are SELLS-NYT, May 15, 2008
2. Why Analysts Keep Telling Investors
to Buy-NYT, February 8, 2009
3. Equity Analysts Too Bullish and
Bearish at the Exact Wrong Times-McKinsey, June 2nd, 2010
4. None of the S&P 1500 have a Wall St.
Consensus Sell on them-Robert Powell, Editor, Retirement Weekly, August
2011
It is better for one's reputation to fail
conventionally than to succeed
unconventionally.-John Maynard Kyenes
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Expert Forecasting versus Ambiguous Uncertainty
Source: Zweig, Your Money & Your Brain; Grants Interest Rate Observer,
Bennett Goodspeed, The Tao Jones (1984)discussed
The articulate incompetents:
Expert forecasters do no better than the average
member of the public;
The more confident an expert sounds, the more likely
he is to be believed by TV viewers
Experts who acknowledge that the future is inherently
unknowable are perceived as being uncertain and
therefore less trustworthy. (Isaiah Berlin: Hedgehog vs
Fox)
The more self-confident an expert appears, the worse
their track record is likely to be.
Forecasters who get a single big outlier correct are
more likely to underperform the rest of the time.
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Optimism Bias
Dunning Kruger Effect: DK is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous
conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize these mistakes.
Metacognition: The less competent you are at a task, the more likely you are to over-estimate your ability to accomplish it
well. Competence in a given field actually weakensself-confidence.
This has devastating consequences in the investment world.
Here, Kitty, Kitty, Kitty
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Analysts: Over-Optimistic GroupThink
Source: Ritholtz.com, McKinsey
Analysts have been persistently overoptimistic for the past
25 years, with [earnings] estimates ranging from 10 to 12
percent a year, compared with actual earnings growth of 6
percent On average, analysts forecasts have been
almost 100 percent too high
-McKinsey study
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Beware the Recency Effect
Source: Ritholtz.com, WSJ
WSJ: 2007 WSJ: 2010
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What Just Happened vs. What is Going to Happen
Source: Ritholtz.com, Fortune, Time
Time, June 2005 Fortune, June 2005
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Confirmation Bias
1. We tend to read that which we
agree with; We avoid that which
disagrees with our preconceived
biases, notions or ideologies;
2. Our biases change the way we
perceive objects literally, the way
we see the world.
3. The same biases affect ourmemories we retain less of what
we disagree with . . .
4.Expectations Affect Perception
Selective Perception & Retention
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Source: Ritholtz.com BigCharts.com
These are poorly designed tax cuts - Stay Out of Markets!
2003: Politics and Asset Management Dont Mix
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2003: Politics and Asset Management Dont Mix
Source: Ritholtz.com, BigCharts.com
2003 Tax Cuts > $1 Trillion
How did that political trade up over 90% over 4 years
work out for you . . . ?
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2009: Political Investing
Source: Ritholtz.com, BigCharts.com
Obama is a Socialist! Stay Out of Markets!
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2009: Politics and Asset Management Dont Mix
Source: Ritholtz.com, BigCharts.com
FASB 157, ZIRP, QE +VERY Oversold Markets
The political trader missed the best rally in a generation
Up 108% over 36 months
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A brief intro to
Neuro
Finance
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If u cn rd ths
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This animation . . .
. . . is not an animation
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A Species of Dopamine Addicts
What does this mean for active traders?
We have an Optimism bias for survival.
Our brains are better at processing good news about the future than bad.
Anticipation of financial reward> stimulus than actual benefits (Buy Rumor, Sell News)
Gamblers, Alcoholics, Sex Addicts, Shopaholics, Hyper-Traders all go for the dopamine high.
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We prefer stories to data
Pre-writing, story-telling is how
Humans evolved to share information
We are vulnerable to anecdotes that
mislead or present false conclusionsunsupported by data
Monkeys Love a Narrative
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100 Years of Secular Markets, P/E Expansion & Contraction
Source: Ritholtz.com, Crestmont Research
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Sentiment Cycle
Source: Ritholtz.com
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Composite29SecularBearMarkets
Source: Ritholtz.com, Morgan Stanley Europe
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What Drives the Long Cycle ?
Source: Ritholtz.com
Drivers of Long Cycles Major Societal Shifts Technology Innovation Entrepreneurship Public Works Sociology & Lifestyle
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US Bonds Are A Safe Haven During Crises
Source: Ritholtz.com
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How to avoid:
The 10 Biggest
Investing Errors
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Top 10 Investor Errors
1. High Fees Are A Drag on Returns
2. Reaching for Yield
3. You (and your Behavior) Are Your Own Worst
Enemy
4. Asset Allocation Matters More than Stock
Picking
5. Passive vs. Active Management
6. Mutual Fund vs. ETFs
7. Not Understanding the Long Cycle
8. Cognitive Errors
9. Confusing Past Performance With Future
Potential
10. When Paying Fees, Get What You Pay For
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The Coming Generational Bull Market
Source: Ritholtz.com
Factors Creative destruction wrought by Youth Post Gen-Y think of themselves as their own brand Expanding beyond traditional technology regions Every generation seeks to bypass their elders Not Left vs Right debate, but small & nimble mammals versus slow-witted Dinosaurs Attracting immigrants to US will remain key competitive advantage
Key Areas Mobile Cloud, Software, Social Web 3.0 Cheap energy driving US manufacturing renaissance Nano technology, Materials Science Biotech, Genome Design, 3D Printing
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Barry L. Ritholtz
CEO, Director of Equity ResearchFusion IQ
535 Fifth Avenue, 25th floor
New York, NY 10017
212-661-2022 [email protected]
The Big Picture
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
for more information, please contact