The Role of Universities in City Foresight
Final report of the Future of Cities Research Network
PaulCowie,JohnGoddardandMarkTewdwr-Jones
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The Role of Universities in City Foresight
Final report of the Future of Cities Research Network
March2016
PaulCowie,JohnGoddardandMarkTewdwr-Jones
Thisreportisintendedfor:
Policymakersandawiderangeofprofessionalsandresearcherswhoseinterestsrelatetoallaspectsofthefutureofcitiesandtheroleofhighereducationinstitutions.ThereportsummariesworkfundedbytheGovernmentOfficeforScienceForesightFutureofCitiesprojectandisbasedontheongoingactivitiesoftheresearchnetworkpartners:NewcastleUniversity,CardiffUniversity,UniversityofLiverpool,UniversityofManchester,andUniversityCollegeLondon.Thenetworkleadacademicscomprisedof:
DrPaulCowie,ProfessorJohnGoddardandProfessorMarkTewdwr-Jones,Newcastle.
ProfessorKevinMorganandDrDavidWaite,Cardiff.
ProfessorAlanHardingandDrNicolaHeadlam,Liverpool.
DrJoeRavetzandProfessorIanMiles,Manchester.
DrMicheleAcutoandDrElizabethRapoport,UCL.
Thereportshouldbecitedas:
Cowie,P.,Goddard,J.andTewdwr-Jones,M.(2016),TheRoleofUniversitiesinCityForesight.FinalreportoftheFutureofCitiesResearchNetwork,NewcastleInstituteforSocialRenewal,NewcastleUniversity,Newcastle.
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Contents
1. Introduction2. ResearchNetworkevents3. Thenetwork’srelationshiptootherForesightFutureofCitiesinitiatives
4. Lessonsfromthenetwork5. Goingforward6. TheCivicUniversityandCityForesight7. Aproofofconcept
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1. Introduction
1.1AstheUKGovernmentOfficeforSciencenationalForesightFutureofCitiesproject(2013-15)developedandprogressed,itbecameincreasinglyapparentthatagrowingnumberofcitiesaroundtheUKsawanopportunitytoinitiatetheirownForesightprojectatalocalscale.Inseveralinstances,thisresultedinthelocaluniversityoruniversitiesplayingakeyroleinmobilisingacademicandotherlocalsourcesofknowledgeandexpertisetobuildcapacitytoundertakeanongoingandsustainablecityfuturesprocess.MorespecificallyintheForesightprocess,theuniversitiesaredemonstratingthatbyworkinginpartnershipwithothers,theycanplayaleadershiproleasan‘anchorinstitution’,linkingthecitytoglobalbodiesofknowledge.
1.2TherangeofcityeventshostedbynationalForesighthaverevealedawiderangeofmethodsthatcanbeusedtobuildthislocalcapacity,includinglocalvariantsofnationalForesightstructuresandprocesses(suchasLeadExpertGroup,StakeholderGroup,stateofknowledgereviews,scenariosandsystemsmapping).Inaddition,othermethodscontinuetobedeployedsuchaspublicexhibitions,Delphisurveys,competitions,varioussocialmediaandcivicleadershipdevelopmentprogrammeswiththeaimoffacilitatingtheparticipationofcivilsocietymorewidelyindebateaboutthefutureofthecity.
1.3TheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetwork,fundedbytheGovernmentOfficeforScience,wasestablishedinJanuary2015.ThisnetworkhasbeenabletoengagefourcitieswherethelinkbetweenauniversityandcityintheForesightprocessistakingshape.TheseareNewcastleUniversityinNewcastle,UniversityofLiverpoolinLiverpool,CardiffUniversityinCardiffandUniversityofManchesterinManchester.Inaddition,UCLhasbeenlinkedtotheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetworktobuildoninternationalworkoncityleadershipthatisrelevanttoUCL’smissiontobe‘London’sGlobalUniversity’.
1.4Thisreportoutlineswhatthenetworkhasachievedsofar.Thenextsectiongivesanoverviewofthenetworkingactivityundertakensincetheinceptionofthenetworkin2015.Thereportthengoesontogiveamoredetailedreviewofeachofthenetworkmeetingsbeforehighlightingsomeoftheinitialoutcomesandfindingsgeneratedbythenetwork.Finally,intrueforesightingtradition,itlookstothefutureofthenetworkandoutlinesopportunitiestotakethenetworkforward.
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2. ResearchNetworkevents
2.1TheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetworkcomprisesofacoreof5cities:Newcastle(networkcoordinators),Manchester,Liverpool,CardiffandLondon.Eachcitywithinthenetworkhasapartnershipbetweenauniversityandatleastonecivicinstitutionfromthatcityregion.Table2.1setsouteachofthecitiesandthepartnershipsinvolvedintheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetwork.
Table1:FutureofCities-networkcitiesandtheirpartnerships
CityRegion PartnershipsNewcastle NewcastleUniversity,NorthumbriaUniversity,
NewcastleCityCouncil&NELEPGreaterManchester ManchesterUniversity,GMLEPLiverpool LiverpoolUniversity,LCRLEP,NorthHousingCardiff CardiffUniversity,CardiffCityCouncil,Welsh
AssemblyLondonUCL N/A
2.2ItshouldbenotedthatinLondon,UCLweremembersofthenetworkbutwerenotinvolvedinundertakingaForesight-fundedlocalcasestudyfortheGovernmentOfficeforScience.
2.3TheNetworkmet4timesduring2015-16andtable2.2outlineseachofthemeetingsandtheparticipantsatthosemeetings.
MeetingVenue AttendeesNewcastle16thJan2015
Prof.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityDrPaulCowie,NewcastleUniversityPatRichie,CEXNewcastleCityCouncilProf.AlanHarding,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityProf.IanMiles,ManchesterUniversityProf.KevinMorgan,CardiffUniversityDrElizabethRapoport,UCLDrJamesPaskins,UCLProf.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScienceEleriJones,GovernmentOfficeforScience
Liverpool21stMay2015
DrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityProf.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityProf.AlanHarding,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversity
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Prof.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScienceDrMicheleAcuto,UCL
Manchester24thJune2015
DrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityProf.IanMiles,ManchesterUniversityProf.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityProf.AlanHarding,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrDavidWaite,CardiffUniversityProf.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScience
Cardiff7thJuly2015
Prof.KevinMorgan,CardiffUniversityDrSimonLannon,CardiffUniversityDrCarlaDeLaurentis,CardiffUniversityDrDavidWaite,CardiffUniversityMarkBarry,AdvisorWelshGovernmentPaulOrdersCEX,CardiffCCJaneForshaw,DirectorEnvironment,CardiffCCProfJonGoddard,NewcastleUniversityDrPaulCowie,NewcastleUniversityProf.TimDixon,ReadingUniversityDrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversity
UCL28thJanuary2016
DrMicheleAcuto,UCLProfBrianCollins,UCL–UKCRICProf.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityDrPaulCowie,NewcastleUniversityAndrewLewis,NewcastleCityCouncilProf.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScienceDrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityIneSteenmans,GovernmentOfficeforScience
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3. Thenetwork’srelationshiptootherForesightFutureofCitiesinitiatives
3.1Figure1givesanoverviewofthevariouscityfuturesinitiativescentredaroundthenationalForesightFutureofCitiesprojectandtherelationshipbetweentheseinitiatives.
Figure1:FutureofCitiesNetworkanditsrelationshiptootherprojects
NationalForesight
FutureofCitiesNetwork CityPilots CityVision
Community
Newcastle
Cardiff
Manchester
Liverpool
London:UCLcityleadership
DevolutionAgenda/Societal
Challenges
ForesightWorkingPapers
•Rochdale•Bristol•MiltonKeynes
•Belfast•Birmingham•Cambridge•Derby•Derry/Londonderry•Edinburgh•Glasgow•Lancaster•LeedsLeicester
•London•Nottingham•Oxford•Reading•Sheffield•Newcastle•Liverpool•Manchester•Cardiff
Otherfuturecity/regioninitiatives• NorthernPowerhouse• Catapult– FutureCities• ESRCUrbanTransformations• Etc……….
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4. Lessonsfromthenetwork
4.1Eachofthecasestudycitieshashighlightedhowcontextandplacespecificallyinfluencedthenetwork’spartnersapproachestoforesighting.Figure2.2givesanoverviewoftheforesightmethodologyasadaptedtotheregionalscale:
Figure2:OverviewofaRegionalForesightMethodology
RegionalForesightMethod:Methodology:Governance
PrivateSector Public
Universities Stakeholders
LeadExpertGroup
• Mobilisingtheacademy• Collatingevidence
Stage1:Baseline
• Internal– Placebased• External– Societalchallenges
Stage2:Driversforchange
Stage3:Scenariosforfuture
• PoliticalEngagement• Publicdebate
Stage4:Pathwaystoscenario
Stakeholderengagementmethods•UrbanRoom•Stakeholderworkshops•Culturalevents:Debates,Theatre,festivalsetc•Onlinetools:gamingorblogging• SocialMedia•DelphiSurvey•Etc………
Policyengagementmethods• PolicyCabinets• Jointcommittees•Workinggroups•Etc…….
CitiesNetwork
NationalPolicy
Atallstagesoftheprocess
4.2Inthetophalfofthefiguresitsthegovernancearrangements.Thisrelatestoboththegovernanceoftheforesightprocessaswellasthegovernanceinstitutionsandcapacityoftheregionitself.Thedifferentcasestudiesundertakenrevealedarangeofdifferentapproachestothis.
4.3InNewcastle,theprocesswasinitiatedbytheuniversitywhothensoughttodrawintheotherthreeelementsoftheregion:privatesector,publicsectorandcivilsociety.Asoutlinedinthe“NewcastleCityFutures2065”report(Tewdwr-Jonesetal,2015;seewww.newcastlecityufutures.org),thisjoiningupofsectoralinterestswasdonethroughavarietyofstakeholderevents.Thejoined-upapproachtofutureplanninghassincebeenformalisedthroughtheCityFuturesDevelopmentGroup(CFDG).CFDGisacollaborativearrangementbetweenthetwoNewcastleuniversities,NewcastleCityCouncil,theNELEP,andotherpolicyorganisations.ThispartnershipisafirstinNewcastlebutalsoisinnovativefornortherncorecitiesandintendstogeneratelongtermthinkingforthecityanditswiderregion,relateongoingandnewresearchtopolicymakers,andinitiatecollaborativeandcoproductionarrangementsforfutureresearchgrantsandthedeliveryofdemonstratorprojects.
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4.4ThepurposeoftheCFDG,therefore,istoprovideaone-stopshopfortheuniversities,Council,NELEP&industrytodiscussemergingandnewareasofresearchthatcouldbeofbenefittothecity,toidentifyongoingresearchbeingundertakenattheuniversitiesandcollegesthatcouldbedisseminatedtoapolicyaudience,andtohearofcityintelligenceneedstoinformfutureresearchprojectbids.
4.5Incontrast,Cardiffisapproachingtheissuefromadifferentdirection.Thereareanumberofpolicysectorspecificinitiativeslookingtothefuturebuttheinitiativesintheregionlackcoordination.CardiffUniversityisnowseekingtofulfilthisroleandbringtogetherthecomplimentaryfutureplans.
4.6Theexperienceoftwoothercitiesinthenetworkhighlightthechallengesinvolvedinthistypeofcollaborativeproject.InbothLiverpoolandManchester,ithasbeendifficultfortheuniversitytodevelopaworkingrelationshipwiththecityinstitution(s).Inbothcases,attemptsweremadetobringthecityintotheprojectwithlittlesuccessotherthanthereceiptoffundinginthecaseofLiverpool.Thismaybeduetoserendipityoralackofit.InthecaseofbothNewcastleandCardiff,thecitieswereatanearlystageofinitiatingfuturethinkingandwerejustbeginningtogettogripswiththeimplicationsofdevolvedgovernance.InthecaseofManchesterandtoaslightlylesserextentLiverpool,thecityregionshadalreadybeenthroughacycleoffuturesthinkingalbeitoverashortertimeperiodasthe50yearstackledintheForesightFutureofCitiesproject.Agooddealofpoliticalandinstitutionalcapitalhasbeencommittedtothe‘ManchesterModel’andsotointroduceanewelementtothisexistingprocesshasprovedtobedifficult.
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5. GoingForward
5.1Thereareundoubtedchallengesinbringingtwodiverseinstitutions,suchasuniversitiesandcitycouncils,togethertodeveloplongtermthinkingcapacityinthepartnershiparoundcityfutures.Thevariouscitiesinthenetworkhadtackledthisindifferentways:NewcastlewasabletousetheForesightprojectasacatalysttobuildandstrengthennascentconnectionsbetweentheuniversityandthecity.Thiswasperhapsinspiteof,ratherbecauseof,theongoingdevolutionagenda.Incontrast,Cardiffhasbeenusingopportunitiesarounddevolutiontocreateamorestrategicapproachtofutureplanning.InthecasesofLiverpoolandManchester,therehasbeenalackofconnectivitybetweenthecityauthoritiesandagenciesanduniversityforesightprojectthatpreventedanylongtermcapacitytobedeveloped.
5.2Futureresearchisneededtounderstandtheissuesunderpinningthesefailuresaswellasresearchintowhatworks.Thisexperiencewassummedupwellbythequestionaroundthetermsofcivicengagementofuniversities:“Shouldcitiesbeanchoredinuniversitiesaswellas(orinplaceof)universitiesbeinganchoredincities?”
5.3Thisleadsontotheissueofcapacityandleadershipintheprocessofcityfutures.OneofthelessonstocomeoutofthecityfuturesResearchNetworkwastheneedforcapacityandresourcesinbothsetsofinstitutions.Foresight(longterm)thinkingislowonthelistofprioritiesforlocalgovernment.Inthecurrentageofausterity,localauthoritiesareworkingflatoutwithlessstafftomanagethecurrentsituation.Inthiscontext,takingastrategiclongtermapproachtoshapingtheirfuturesisperhapsseenasanunnecessaryburdenorevenluxurywhiletheyarepreoccupiedwithmoreimmediateservicedeliveryconcerns.
5.4Therearealsoconstraintstothistypeoflongtermcapacitybuildingwithinuniversities.Notwithstandingthegreaterprofile‘impact’isgettingwithinframeworkssuchastheResearchExcellenceFramework(REF),thechallengespresentedofengaginginforesightthinkingwithoutsideinstitutionsbecomesnotable.Longtermcollaborationandco-productionhastoovercomeawholerangeofinternalinstitutionalbarrierswithinuniversities.Firstandforemostofthesebarriersisthecommitmentofresourcestoanon-academicendeavour.Citiesandfuturesthinkingisofteninter-disciplinary;assuchittendstofallbetweenthenaturalandsocialsciences.Thiscanleadtocompetitionforleadershipofcitiesinitiativesorelseabenignneglectbyboth,eachexpectingtheothertotakethelead.Thesecondissueisthatofacademicattainment.Oneofthemaingoalsofacademicsistopublishinternational-respectedresearchintheirdisciplinaryfield.Partoftheforesightmethodreliesonresearchofthistypetoinformdecisionmakingprocesses,butagreaterpartofthestoryisaboutthetranslationtoappliedworking.Thisdoesnotnecessarilytickenoughboxesinthemetric-drivenworlduniversitiesareincreasinglybecoming.
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5.5WithinWhitehall,policyinterventionislimitedtoperceivedmarketfailure.Inallotherinstances,barrierstothefreeoperationofthemarketmustberemoved.ThisposessomethingofadilemmafortheForesightMethodfoundedasitisontheideaoflongtermplanningandstrategicdecisionmakingbetweenthefourelementsofcivicsociety:privatesector;publicsector;theacademyandcivicsociety.Thatitnottosaythemarketisabsentfromfuturesplanning,butthatitarguablydoesnotholdthedominantpositionitdoeswithindaytodaypolicyagendas.Forexample,futuresthinkingaroundwhatareoftenreferredtoasthegrandsocietalchallenges(eghealth,demography,sustainability,democracy)requiresstrategieswhichmaynotbeconsideredtobeentirelymarketfriendly.Itmaybethatfutureworkoncityforesightmethodologyneedstobridgethegapbetweenamarketandplannedsolutiontothesocietalchallengesfacingcities.
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6. TheCivicUniversityandCityForesightthroughAnchoring
6.1Goingforward,theForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetworkhasdemonstratedthroughevidencethatthereisastrongargumentforuniversitiestoplayapivotalroleasacoordinatingandfacilitatingmechanismatthecityscale.ThroughForesightplace-basedmechanisms,universitiescanenhancetheirroleasurban‘anchorinstitutions’,withtheacademiccommunityassistinginurbanknowledgecreationandsharingtoinformpolicyandpracticethathasabearingonthefutureofthecity.
6.2Inthepastfewyears,theconceptoflocal‘anchorinstitutions’hasgrownbeyonditsorigininU.S.urbanpolicyandstartedtogainawidercurrency.Theconceptofanchoringlacksapreciseorconsistentdefinitionbutgenerallyreferstolargelocally-embeddedinstitutions,typicallynon-governmentalpublicsector,culturalorothercivicorganisations,thatareofsignificantimportancetotheeconomyandwidercommunitylifeofthecitiesinwhichtheyarebased.Thepresenceoftheseinstitutionsisunderstoodtogeneratepositiveexternalitiesandrelationshipsthatcansupportor‘anchor’widereconomicactivitywithinthelocality.
6.3AccordingtotheWorkFoundation:
“anchorinstitutionsdonothaveademocraticmandateandtheirprimarymissionsdonotinvolveregenerationorlocaleconomicdevelopment.Nonethelesstheirscale,localrootednessandcommunitylinksaresuchthattheyareacknowledgedtoplayakeyroleinlocaldevelopmentandeconomicgrowth,representingthe‘stickycapital’aroundwhicheconomicgrowthstrategiescanbebuilt.”(TheWorkFoundation,2010,p.3).
6.4IntheForesightprocess,universitiesandcitiescanidentifyassetsandopportunitiesthrough:thedisseminationofexistingdataandintelligencetovariedaudiences;theprovisionofnewdataandintelligence;developingsystemsthinkingacrossfragmentedgovernanceanddeliverybodies;promotingnewnetworkingrelationshipsbetweenactorsandagencies;andundertakingfuturesworkthatrelatesmorereadilytocircumstancesineachcitythanthematicexercisesrelatingtoasingleknowledgedomain.
6.5Suchactivitiesaccordwithagrowingrecognitionofthecivicroleofpublicuniversitiesastheyseektorespondtomajorlongtermsocietalchallengessuchclimateanddemographicchangethathavelocalaswellasglobalmanifestations.Thiscanbeillustratedbythestructuresandinternalinstitutionscreatedbytheuniversitiesinthisnetwork:UCL-SustainableCitiesGrandChallenge;Manchester-Cities@Manchester;Liverpool-HeseltineInstitute;andNewcastle-SocietalChallengethemes.Theseinternalstructuresareattemptstomarshaltheirresearchthattranscendindividualschoolandfacultydisciplinestoaddresstheinnovativespacesbetweenthemasaresponsetograndsocietalchallenges.
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7. Aproofofconcept
7.1Thisnetworkandtheactivitiesofitsmembershasdelivereda‘proofofconcept’modelforaregionallybasedforesightmethod.Intwooutofthefourcitycases,stableandongoinginstitutionalrelationshipshavebeendevelopedbetweenthefoursectors:university,publicsector,privatesectorandcivilsociety.Moreworkneedstobeundertakentounderstandthebarriersthatpreventsimilarcapacitybuildingtooccurinothercities.However,pursuingforesightlongtermthinkingincitiesisnotstraightforwardinobjectiveorpractice.Constantmanagementofrelationshipsandpartnerships,togetherwitharequirementtoraisethinkingandexpectationsbeyondnarrowagendasandpoliticalshorttermism,ispartoftheprocess;andforeverysuccessinthisregardtherewillalsobesetbacks.Thesesetbacksareonlytobeexpectedwhenseekingtoattemptaproofofconcept;indeedtheexperiencefromsetbacksisoftenmorevaluablethantheexperienceofsuccess.Whatisimportant,however,isthataworkingandreplicablemodelofregionalforesightcanbepursued,developedandadoptedbyothers.