8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
1/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 1
Financial Analysis & ForecastingPrepared by Matt H. Evans, CPA, CMA, CFM
Purpose of Spreadsheet: Revised: 11/22/2002 active
To illustrate concepts related to financial analysis and forecasting.
The financial analysis uses a combination of ratios and industry averages toevaluate the financial performance of the company. Trend line graphs are also
generated, comparing the company's performance with the industry averages.Finally, the historical information is used to prepare a set of pro forma
financial statements using both linear and non-linear functions.
Required Inputs:
You will need to collect financial statements for several reporting periods. If you
want to benchmark the performance against the industry, then you will also need
to collect industry averages. The spreadsheet is setup to capture five reportingperiods (annual, quarterly, monthly). All input fields are highlighted in yellow.
For best results, SEC Filings are suggested since these reports provide more
detail than published financial statements.
Note: A small red triangle in the upper right corner of a cell indicates that a comment has
been inserted. Point your mouse over the cell and the comment will appear.
If a cell appears in red, this indicates a warning concerning a calculation.
Worksheets:
This spreadsheet consists of the following worksheets, divided into three sections:
A) Input Worksheets for financial analysis using historical data:
Worksheet Title Purpose
2 Enter general information here - used on several worksheets.
3 Enter comparative balances sheets for up to five periods.4 Enter comparative income statements for up to five periods.
5 Enter comparative cash flow statements for up to five periods.
Wksh2
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12
Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16
General Input
Balance SheetIncome Statement
Cash Flow Statement
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
2/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 2
Caution: If you enter less than five years of historical information, certain worksheet
formulas may have to be revised.
B) Output Worksheets for evaluating financial performance:
6 Calculates key financial information for further analysis.
7 Calculates a series of ratios for further analysis.
8 Compare ratio analysis to industry averages.
9 Horizontal analysis with corresponding trend lines.
10 Common size financials in percentages and graphs.
C) Pro Forma / Forecasted Financials for Budgeting:
11 Set of pro forma financials using simple assumptions
12 Set of pro forma financials using linear trending
13 Set of pro forma financials using exponential smoothing
14 Example of Scenario Analysis and Goal Seek Analysis15 Preliminary budget analysis
16 Set of budgets per various assumptions and forecasts.
Note: Some additional worksheets (Answer Reports 1 & 2) may appear in the spreadsheet
due to the running of Solver.
Macros:
No macros have been used in this spreadsheet to give everyone some assurance that no viruses
are contained in the spreadsheet. However, you are free to add your own macros to save time.
Tools > Macro > Record New Macro
Excel Functions:
This spreadsheet uses certain financial functions (such as =TREND) which might not be
found in your version of Microsoft Excel. To take full advantage of financial and statistical
functions, you should install the Add On package titled: Analysis TookPak. Go to the main
tool bar, select Tools => Add-Ins => check the Analysis TookPak option, insert your
Excel CD and install the Analysis ToolPak. Also, you might want to install the Solver
Add-in since this is useful for solving special forecasting issues (such as finding the
Key Financial Data
Ratio Analysis
Benchmark Analysis
Horizontal Analysis
Vertical Analysis
Pro Forma - Simple
Pro Forma - Regression
Pro Forma - Exponential
Scenario AnalysisBudget Analysis
Final Budgets
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
3/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 3
optimal exponential factor).
Compatibility:
This spreadsheet was created with Microsoft Excel 2000. Older versions of Excel (such as 97)
may not be compatible with this spreadsheet.
Corrections:
With any attempt to build an Excel Model, I can easily make some mistakes.
So if you have suggestions to make the model better, drop me an email
and Ill be glad to improve the financial model. My email address is: [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
4/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 4
General Input Panel activeThe following general information should be entered:
Note: Sample data has been entered in the input cells to help you get started.
2-1 Name of Company => X Y Z Corporation USA
2-2 Reporting Periods => Annual (Annual, Semi-annual, Quarterly or Monthly)
2-3 Number of Days in Reporting Period a 365
What reporting periods will be entered?
2-4 Most Current Period 2000(1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-5 Previous Period 1999 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-6 2nd Previous Period 1998(1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-7 3rd Previous Period 1997(1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-8 4th Previous Period 1996(1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-9 Number of historical periods to be analyzed 5
How are the amounts expressed in the financial statements?
(such as: in millions of dollars, thousands of Canadian dollars, etc.)
2-10 millions of dollars
Home
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
5/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 5
Balance Sheet for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Cash and Cash Equivalents 990 950 901 998 870
Short Term Marketable Securitie 10 15 12 6 11
Accounts Receivable 1020 1550 1830 2250 3040
Inventory 1005 1360 1650 1900 2060
Other Current Assets 870 1150 1370 1650 1530
Total Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Fixed Assets 14006 17605 21826 26950 28100
Accumulated Depreciation -1280 -1700 -2100 -2550 -3010
Net Fixed Assets 12726 15905 19726 24400 25090Longterm Investments 360 320 120 590 905
Investments in Other Companies 65 250 412
Intangibles and Other Assets 100 110 105 135 195
Total Non Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Total Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Accounts Payable 2050 3150 3290 3870 4800
Short Term Borrowings 1200 1830 2580 3100 3550
Short Term Portion of LT Debt 12 15 25 30 36
Other Current Liabilities 1050 1250 1480 1590 1301Total Current Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Longterm Debt / Borrowings 1160 1750 2600 3600 3950
Other Longterm Liabilities 650 750 701 890 995
Total Non Current Liabilities 1810 2500 3301 4490 4945
Total Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Preferred Equity
Common Equity 2044 2005 2069 2090 2120
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
6/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 6
Balance Sheet for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Additional Paid in Capital 5013 4900 5159 5626 5628
Retained Earnings 5097 7050 9840 15050 20005
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl 275 120 -550 -2147 -6722
Treasury Stock -1405 -1460 -1480 -1520 -1550
Total Shareholder Equity #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Total Liabilities & Equity #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Check: Assets = Liab + Equity #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Comment => #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
NonDepreciable Fixed Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred Taxes 112 101 90 98 109
Goodwill Write Off 0 0 0 0 0
No of Common Shares o/s 1,320 1,290 1,302 1,345 1,322
Par Value of Common Stock $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00
No of Preferred Shares o/s 0 0 0 0 0
Par Value of Preferred Stock
Market Price of Common Stock $22.65 $28.90 $37.05 $33.60 $29.40Market Price of Preferred Stock $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Preferred Dividends in Arrears 0 0 0 0 0
Liquidating value of Preferred St 0 0 0 0 0
Book Value per Share #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Dividends per Common Share $1.01 $1.49 $1.89 $1.75 $1.76
Dividend Payout Ratio #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Cash Dividends to Preferred Sto
Cash Dividends to Common Sto 1330 1918 2461 2354 2329
Total Dividends Paid 1330 1918 2461 2354 2329
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
7/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 7
Income Statement for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Net Sales 12,060 16,700 21,170 24,700 27,400
Other Operating Revenues 16 19 26 37 48
Total Revenues 12,076 16,719 21,196 24,737 27,448
Cost of Goods Sold -4950 -7050 -8233 -9050 -10150
Other Operating Expenses -11 -13 -17 -22 -28
Total Direct Expenses -4961 -7063 -8250 -9072 -10178
Selling, General & Administrativ -3300 -3880 -4637 -5670 -7120
Operating Income 3815 5776 8309 9995 10150
Interest Expenses -117 -122 -216 -282 -304Foreign Exchange (Loss) Gain
Associated Company (Loss) Gai -22
Other NonOperating (Loss) Gai 17
Income Tax Expense -790 -1005 -2050 -2105 -2660
Reserve Charges
Income Before Extra Ord Item #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Extra Ordinary Items (Loss) Gai
Tax Effects of Extraordinary Ite
Minority Interests 17 302 219 303 515
Net Income #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Primary EPS #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Earnings Before Int & Taxes #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Depreciation & Amortization -310 -420 -400 -450 -460
Research & Devel Expenses
Capitalized Interest Expense -16 -19 -33 -39 -30
Interest Income 4 6 11 19 27
Total Non Operating Expenses #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
8/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 8
Income Statement for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total Extra Ordinary Items #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Tax Rate 21.36% 17.78% 25.33% 21.67% 27.02%
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
9/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 9
Cash Flow Statement for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Net Income #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Depreciation and Amortization 310 420 400 450 460
(Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes -2 11 11 -8 -11
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets -55 45
(Increase) Decrease Current Assets -162 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab 206 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Cash Flow from Operations #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Capital Expenditures -1455 -2750 -3880 -5220 -4108Acquisition in Other Co's -135
Proceeds from Sales of Assets 112 35 150 182
Purchases of Investments -712 -1979 -1801 -2314 -2609
Sale of Investments 162 129 330 221 50
Other Investment Activities 33 -166 61 -12
Cash Provided (Used) from Investmt #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Proceeds from Borrowings 1070 1044 1460 1880 1105
Payments on Borrowings -1112 -650 -898 -801 -961
Dividends Paid to Shareholders -1330 -1918 -2461 -2354 -2329
Proceeds from Minority Interest 5 12 7 7 8
Issue Stock / Exercise Options 195 1 45 13 6
Purchase / Retire Common Stock
Other Financing Activities -75 -12
Cash Provided (Used) from Financin #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Increase (Decrease) to Cash #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Beginning Cash Balance 1010 990 950 901 998
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
10/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 10
Cash Flow Statement for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Ending Cash Balance #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Check: Should agree to Balance Sheet #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Comment => #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
11/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 11
Key Financial Data for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 EBITDA :
Income before ExtraOrd Items #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Interest Expense 117 122 216 282 304
Capitalized Interest Expense 16 19 33 39 30
Income Tax Expense 790 1005 2050 2105 2660
Reserve Charges
Depreciation and Amortization 310 420 400 450 460
EBITDA #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
EBITDA Margin #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Free Cash Flow:
Operating Cash Flow #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Investment Cash Flows #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Preferred Dividends Paid (fixed)
Redemption of Fixed Obligations -1112 -650 -898 -801 -961
Other Critical Outlays -35 -45 -42 -30 -25
Free Cash Flow #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Working Capital:
Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Current Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Working Capital #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Liquid Capital:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 990 950 901 998 870
Marketable Securities 10 15 12 6 11
Accounts Receivable 1020 1550 1830 2250 3040
Notes Receivable 0 0 0 0 0
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
12/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 12
Key Financial Data for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total Current Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Long Term Debt -1160 -1750 -2600 -3600 -3950
Preferred Equity
Liquid Capital #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
The following valuation indicators are very simple and basic; they are used as quick, rough estmat
Market Capitalization:
Market Cap - Common Stk $29,898 $37,281 $48,239 $45,192 $38,867Market Cap - Preferred Stk $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Total Market Capitalization $29,898 $37,281 $48,239 $45,192 $38,867
Present Value:
Normalized Cash Flow Weight %' 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 30.00% 40.00%
Normalized Cash Flow #REF!
Number of Future Periods 15
Required Rate of Return 11.00%
Present Value of Free Cash Flow #REF!
Present Value of Selling Price $315,000
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
13/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 13
Key Financial Data for
X Y Z Corporation USAmillions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Normalized Net Income #REF!
Capitalization Rate 12.00%
Nominal Growth Rate 3.50%
Net Capitalization Rate 8.50%
Value based on Earnings #REF!
Operating Leverage #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Financial Leverage #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Total Leverage #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Check Totals 0.00 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
14/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 14
Ratio Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Title of Ratio 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Acid Test Ratio 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.40
Current Ratio #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Operating Cash Flow to Net Incom #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Liquidity Index:
Cash - Days Removed 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Balance 990 950 901 998 870
Cash Balance Total 0 0 0 0 0
Marketable Sec - Days Removed 11 12 16 15 14
Marketable Securities Balance 10 15 12 6 11
Marketable Securities Total 110 180 192 90 154
Receivables - Days Removed 34 30 31 32 36
Receivable Balance 1020 1550 1830 2250 3040
Receivable Balance Total 34257 46158 56217 72213 110751
Inventory - Days Removed 79 61 67 72 71
Inventory Balance 1005 1360 1650 1900 2060
Inventory Balance Total 79745 83261 110092 136018 146676
Other - Days Removed 16 22 26 21 19Other Current Assets Balance 870 1150 1370 1650 1530
Other Current Assets Total 13920 25300 35620 34650 29070
Liquidity Index (Days) 33 31 35 36 38
Z Score:
1.2 x (working capital / total assets) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
1.4 x (retained earn / total assets) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
3.3 x (EBIT / total assets) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
15/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 15
Ratio Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Title of Ratio 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 .6 x (market value equity / b.v. debt) 15.46 12.78 11.13 7.53 5.90
.999 x (sales / total assets) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Z Score #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Receivable Turnover:
Credit Sales 11520 15750 20080 23200 26500
Average Receivable Balance 1060 1285 1690 2040 2645
Receivable Turnover 10.9 12.3 11.9 11.4 10.0
Days Required to Collect A/R 34 30 31 32 36
Inventory Turnover:
Average Inventory Balance 1,046 1183 1505 1775 1980
Inventory Turnover 4.6 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.1
Days in Inventory 79 61 67 72 71
Total Asset Turnover #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Operating Assets Ratio #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Gross Profit Margin 59% 58% 61% 63% 63%
Operating Margin 32% 35% 39% 40% 37%
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
16/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 16
Ratio Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Title of Ratio 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Net Profit Margin #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Direct Cost to Operating Revenue 41% 42% 39% 37% 37%
Capitalization Rate / Asset Return:
Net Operating Income 3000 4749 6204 7829 7408
Total Investments / Operating Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Capitalization Rate / Return #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Return on Shareholder Equity 24% 33% 35% 33% 26%
Debt to Total Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Debt to Common Equity 1 1 1 1 1
Times Interest Earned #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Price to Earnings (P/E) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Price to Book Value #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Stock Yield 4.45% 5.14% 5.10% 5.21% 5.99%
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
17/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 17
Benchmark Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
active You need to collect benchmark data on the respective industry for the subject company.
Enter the benchmark data in the appropriate input cells. This information is used to
generate trend line graphs in this worksheet. If you do not have any benchmark data,then fill in the highlighted yellow cell with numeric zero "0". The "industry" line will be null
in the graph and show only the company specific ratio trend.
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
8-1 Acid Test Ratio - Industry 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.48
7-1 Acid Test Ratio - Company 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.40
8-2 Current Ratio - Industry 1.12 1.10 1.05 1.08 1.07
7-2 Current Ratio - Company #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8-3 Receivable Turnover - Industry 8.50 8.70 8.40 8.20 8.30
7-21 Receivable Turnover - Company 10.87 12.26 11.88 11.37 10.02
8-4 Days to Collect A/R - Industry 41 39 40 41 41
7-22 Days to Collect A/R - Company 34 30 31 32 36
8-5 Inventory Turnover - Industry 4.40 4.45 4.20 4.30 4.387-25 Inventory Turnover - Company 4.60 5.96 5.47 5.10 5.13
8-6 Days in Inventory - Industry 86 88 81 89 82
7-26 Days in Inventory - Company 79 61 67 72 71
8-7 Asset Turnover - Industry 1.60 1.55 1.62 1.68 1.69
7-27 Asset Turnover - Company #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8-8 Gross Profit Margin - Industry 55.00% 52.00% 60.00% 62.00% 63.00%
Home Wksh2
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7
Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
18/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 18
7-29 Gross Profit Margin - Company 58.96% 57.78% 61.11% 63.36% 62.96%
8-10 Net Profit Margin - Industry 20.00% 23.00% 22.00% 19.00% 20.00%
7-31 Net Profit Margin - Company #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8-11 Return on Total Assets - Industry 38.00% 36.00% 37.00% 34.00% 36.00%
8-12 Return on Total Assets - Company 30.00% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8-13 Return on Equity - Industry 26.00% 22.00% 24.00% 19.00% 20.00%
8-14 Return on Equity - Company 23.93% 33.44% 35.28% 33.42% 25.89%
8-15 Debt to Equity - Industry 35% 38% 31% 34% 32%
7-38 Debt to Equity - Company 50% 63% 63% 57% 53%
8-16 Times Interest Earned - Industry 40 38 36 39 43
7-39 Times Interest Earned - Company #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
We added the following two ratios to assess if the Company has excessive growth:
4-13 Provision for Taxes -790 -1005 -2050 -2105 -2660
8-17 Trading Ratio - Company #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8-18 Trading Ratio - Industry 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.30 1.27
8-19 Net Sales to Net Worth - Company #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8-20 Net Sales to Net Worth - Industry 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.22 1.20
Source for Benchmark Data: Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios by Leo Troy, Prentice Hall
Graphs appear below for each of the above comparisons:
0.60
Acid Ratio Comparison
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
19/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 19
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Acid Test Ratio- Industry
Acid Test Ratio- Company
Periods
Ratio
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Current Ratio Comparison
Current Ratio -Industry
Current Ratio -Company
Periods
Ratio
Receivable Turnover Comparison
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
20/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 20
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00
2.00
4.006.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00ReceivableTurnover -Industry
Receivable
Turnover -Company
Periods
Turnove
rRate
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
10
20
30
40
50
Receivable Collection Comparison
Days to CollectA/R - Industry
Days to CollectA/R - Company
Periods
Daysto
CollectA/R
Inventor Turnover Com arison
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
21/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 21
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.005.00
6.00
7.00InventoryTurnover -
IndustryInventoryTurnover -Company
Periods
Turnover
Rate
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
20
40
60
80
100
Inventory Days Comparison
Days inInventory -Industry
Days in
Inventory -Company
Periods
DaysHeldin
Invent o
ry
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
22/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 22
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Asset Turnover Comparison
Asset Turnover- Industry
Asset Turnover- Company
Periods
TurnoverRate
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
Gross Profit Margin
Gross ProfitMargin -
IndustryGross ProfitMargin -Company
GrossPro
fitMa
rgin
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
23/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 23
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Net Profit Margin
Net ProfitMargin -Industry
Net ProfitMargin -Company
Periods
NetProfitMargin
96 97 98 99 00
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
Return on Total Assets
Return on TotalAssets -Industry
Return on TotalAssets -Company
eturnonTotalAss e
ts
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
24/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 24
1 1 1 1 2
Periods
R
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
Return on Equity Comparison
Return on TotalAssets -Industry
Return on TotalAssets -Company
PeriodsReturnonCommon
Equity
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Debt to Equity Comparison
Debt to Equity -Industry
Debt to Equity -Company
toEquityRatio
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
25/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 25
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000%
Periods
Debt
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000
10
20
30
40
50
60
Times Interest Earned
Times InterestEarned -Industry
Times Interest
Earned -Company
Periods
TimesInter
estEarn
ed
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Trading Ratio Comparison
Trading Ratio -Industry
Trading Ratio -tio
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
26/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 26
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00
0.50
1.00
Periods
Ra
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.002.50
3.00
Sales to Worth Comparison
Net Sales toNet Worth -Industry
Net Sales toNet Worth -CompanyR
atio
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
27/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 27
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
28/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 28
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
29/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 29
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
30/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 30
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
31/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 31
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
32/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 32
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
33/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 33
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
34/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 34
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
35/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 35
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
36/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 36
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
37/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 37
Horizontal Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Horizontal Analysis expresses change between periods as percentages for each account in
the financial statements. The basic formula for horizontal analysis is:
% change = (most recent period - previous period) / previous period
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Growth in Net Sales 32.50% 38.47% 26.77% 16.67% 10.93%
Cost of Goods Sold 29.00% 42.42% 16.78% 9.92% 12.15%
Growth in Gross Profits 2.90% -1.99% 5.76% 3.68% -0.64%
Growth in Interest Expense 16.50% 4.27% 77.05% 30.56% 7.80%
Growth in Income Tax Expense 12.90% 27.22% 103.98% 2.68% 26.37%
Growth in Non Operating Expenses 3.80% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Growth in Minority Interest 96.00% 1676.47% -27.48% 38.36% 69.97%
Growth in Net Income 33.50% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Growth in Earnings Per Share 32.60% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Cash and Cash Equivalents 3.08% -4.04% -5.16% 10.77% -12.83%
Short Term Marketable Securities 12.00% 50.00% -20.00% -50.00% 83.33%
Accounts Receivable 26.70% 51.96% 18.06% 22.95% 35.11%
Inventory 19.90% 35.32% 21.32% 15.15% 8.42%
Other Current Assets 26.70% 32.18% 19.13% 20.44% -7.27%
Total Current Assets 21.50% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
38/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 38
Net Fixed Assets 17.80% 24.98% 24.02% 23.69% 2.83%
Longterm Investments 6.20% -11.11% -62.50% 391.67% 53.39%
Investments in Other Companies 0.00% -100.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 64.80%
Intangibles and Other Assets 16.50% 10.00% -4.55% 28.57% 44.44%
Total Non Current Assets 32.50% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Growth in Total Assets 1.05% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Accounts Payable 26.20% 53.66% 4.44% 17.63% 24.03%
Short Term Borrowings 33.50% 52.50% 40.98% 20.16% 14.52%
Short Term Portion of LT Debt 16.70% 25.00% 66.67% 20.00% 20.00%
Other Current Liabilities 12.80% 19.05% 18.40% 7.43% -18.18%
Total Current Liabilities 38.02% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Longterm Debt / Borrowings 46.00% 50.86% 48.57% 38.46% 9.72%
Other Longterm Liabilities 11.30% 15.38% -6.53% 26.96% 11.80%
Total Non Current Liabilities 37.10% 38.12% 32.04% 36.02% 10.13%
Growth in Total Liabilities 31.05% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Preferred Equity 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Common Equity 2.60% -1.91% 3.19% 1.01% 1.44%
Additional Paid in Capital 1.50% -2.25% 5.29% 9.05% 0.04%
Retained Earnings 38.00% 38.32% 39.57% 52.95% 32.92%
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl -166.00% -56.36% -558.33% 290.36% 213.09%
Treasury Stock 2.01% 3.91% 1.37% 2.70% 1.97%
Growth in Total Equity (Net Worth) 6.11% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Sustainable Growth Rate #1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Sustainable Growth Rate #2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Growth in Market Capitalization 14.50% 24.69% 29.39% -6.32% -14.00%
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
39/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 39
Vertical Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Vertical analysis expresses financial statements as percentages. On the Balance Sheet,
Total Assets is assigned 100% and on the Income Statement, Total Revenues is assigned 100%.
expressed in percentages
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Account Title 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Cash and Cash Equivalents #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Short Term Marketable Securities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Accounts Receivable #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Inventory #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Other Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Net Fixed Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Longterm Investments #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Investments in Other Companies #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Intangibles and Other Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Non Current Assets 77.28% 76.47% 77.59% 78.86% 77.98%
Total Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Accounts Payable #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Short Term Borrowings #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Short Term Portion of LT Debt #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Other Current Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Total Current Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Longterm Debt / Borrowings #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Other Longterm Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Total NonCurrent Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
40/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 40
Total Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Preferred Equity #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Common Equity #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Additional Paid in Capital #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Retained Earnings #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?Adj for Foreign Currency Transl #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Treasury Stock #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Total Equity #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Total Liabilities & Equity #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Total Revenues 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Cost of Goods Sold 40.99% 42.17% 38.84% 36.58% 36.98%
Gross Profit 58.96% 57.78% 61.11% 63.36% 62.96%
Operating Expenses 27.42% 23.28% 21.96% 23.01% 26.04%
Non Operating Expenses 7.51% 6.64% 10.79% 9.65% 10.80%
Income Before Extra Ord Items #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Net Income #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
41/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 41
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Enter Your Forecast Periods => 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro Forma Income Statement
Gross Revenues 30,742 34,431 38,562 43,190 48,373Growth Assumptions 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%
Cost of Goods Sold -12024 -13467 -15083 -16893 -18920
Growth Assumptions 39.11% 39.11% 39.11% 39.11% 39.11%
Operating Expenses -7483 -8381 -9387 -10513 -11775
Growth Assumptions 24.34% 24.34% 24.34% 24.34% 24.34%
NonOperating Expenses -3200 -3200 -3600 -3600 -4000
ExtraOrdinary Items 650 650 650 700 700
Net Income 8685 10033 11143 12884 14378
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
Sources of Operating Cash Flow:
Net Income 8685 10033 11143 12884 14378Depreciation and Amortization 470 490 500 520 550
(Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 9 2 3 6
(Increase) Decrease Current Assets #REF! -996 -1116 -1249 -1399
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab #REF! 1291 1446 1620 1814
Operating Cash Flow #REF! 10827 11975 13777 15348
Investment Sources of Cash Flow:
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
42/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 42
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Enter Your Forecast Periods => 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Planned Sale of Assets 100 60 20 25 35
Planned Sale of Investments 2200 2100 1900 1800 1700
Other Investment Sources to be usedTotal Investment Sources of Cash 2300 2160 1920 1825 1735
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures -3500 -3000 -3100 -2700 -2600
Acquisitions in Other Co's -500 -750 -1200 -650 -350
Purchases of Investments -3000 -3500 -4500 -6000 -7000
Total Investment Applications of Cash -7000 -7250 -8800 -9350 -9950
Cash Flow from Financing Activities:
Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1300 1000 950 750 650Proceeds from Minority Interest 20 60 80 90 100
Other Financing Activities
Total Financing Sources of Cash 1320 1060 1030 840 750
Cash Flow Applied for Financing:
Payments on Loans & Debt -1500 -1000 -600 -500 -500
Dividends Paid to Shareholders -2500 -3000 -4000 -5500 -7000
Purchase / Retire Stock -2000 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500
Other Financing Activities
Total Financing Applications of Cash -6000 -6000 -6100 -7000 -8000
Total Change to Cash #REF! 797 25 92 -117
Beginning Cash Balance 870 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Forecasted Ending Balance #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
43/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 43
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Enter Your Forecast Periods => 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cash and Cash Equivalents #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Short Term Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable 3074 3443 3856 4319 4837Inventory 2459 2754 3085 3455 3870
Other Current Assets 1998 2238 2507 2807 3144
Total Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Fixed Assets 31600 34600 37700 40400 43000
Accumulated Depreciation -3480 -3970 -4470 -4990 -5540
Net Fixed Assets 28120 30630 33230 35410 37460
Longterm Investments 1705 3105 5705 9905 15205
Investments in Other Companies 912 1662 2862 3512 3862
Intangibles and Other Assets 200 240 320 400 650Total Non Current Assets 30937 35637 42117 49227 57177
Total Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Accounts Payable 5226 5853 6556 7342 8223
Short Term Borrowings 3689 4132 4627 5183 5805
Short Term Portion of LT Debt 30 30 25 20 15
Other Current Liabilities 1845 2066 2314 2591 2902
Total Current Liabilities 10790 12081 13522 15136 16945
Longterm Debt / Borrowings 3750 3750 4100 4350 4500
Other Longterm Liabilities 700 750 800 800 800
Total Non Current Liabilities 4450 4500 4900 5150 5300
Total Liabilities 15240 16581 18422 20286 22245
Preferred Equity
Common Equity 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200
Additional Paid in Capital 5700 5700 5700 5700 5700
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
44/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 44
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Enter Your Forecast Periods => 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Retained Earnings 26190 33222 40365 47748 55126
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl -5000 -4000 -2500 -1500 -500
Treasury Stock -3550 -5550 -7050 -8050 -8550Total Equity 25540 31572 38715 46098 53976
External Financing Required (EFR) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
45/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 45
ProForma Financials (Linear Trend Model)
X Y Z Corporation USA
A set of pro forma (forecasted) financial statements are generated using the results of
the historical analysis in the previous worksheets. A statistical method known as
active linear regression is used to predict future values. If you have important assumptions
that are important to the forecast, then these assumptions should over-ride thelinear calculations since we want our forecast to be as accurate as possible.
Key Point => If your historical information has gradual trends, then linear regression
is an appropriate model for forecasting. However, if your historical information has
distinct steps up or down, then you should consider using a smoothing model .
Before we adopt a regression model, it's a good idea to generate a scatter graph of the actual data
and observe if there is a clear trend for fitting a straight regression line into the data:
The calculation of linear values is determined by defining the slope of the line and the y intercept:
Order Total Rev Linear Slope Intercept
Formula for Linear Trendline: Year variable x actual y Value y m factor b factor
1996 1 12,076 12,683 3876.20 8806.60
y = ( m * x ) + b 1997 2 16,719 16,559
Home Wksh2
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11
Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16
1994 1996 1998 2000 20020
5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000
Total Revenues
TotalRevenues
Periods
TotalReve
nues
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
46/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 46
1998 3 21,196 20,435
m: slope of line 1999 4 24,737 24,311
x: independent variable 2000 5 27,448 28,188
b: y intercept 2001 6 32,064
2002 7 35,940
2003 8 39,816
2004 9 43,6922005 10 47,569
The degree of linear fit with the actual data can be expressed as R Sq 0.9888
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro Forma Income Statement
12-1 Gross Revenues 32064 35940 39816 43692 47569
12-2 Cost of Goods Sold -11607 -12847 -14087 -15327 -16567
12-3 Operating Expenses -7750 -8693 -9636 -10579 -11522
12-4 Operating Income 12707 14400 16093 17786 19480
12-5 Non Operating Expenses #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
4-25 Extra Ordinary Items #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Net Income #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
Sources of Operating Cash Flow:
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
47/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 47
Net Income #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Depreciation and Amortization 470 490 500 520 550
(Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 9 2 3 6
(Increase) Decrease Current Asset #REF! -1047 -1047 -1047 -1047
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab #REF! 1357 1357 1357 1357
Operating Cash Flow #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Investment Sources of Cash Flow:
Planned Sale of Assets 100 60 20 25 35
Planned Sale of Investments 2200 2100 1900 1800 1700
Other Investment Sources to be us
Total Investment Sources of Cash 2300 2160 1920 1825 1735
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures -3500 -3000 -3100 -2700 -2600
Acquisitions -500 -750 -1200 -650 -350
Purchases of Investments -3000 -3500 -4500 -6000 -7000
Total Investment Applications of C -7000 -7250 -8800 -9350 -9950
Cash Flow from Financing Activities:
Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1300 1000 950 750 650
Proceeds from Minority Interest 20 60 80 90 100
Other Financing Activities
Total Financing Sources of Cash 1320 1060 1030 840 750
Cash Flow Applied for Financing:Payments on Loans & Debt -1500 -1000 -600 -500 -500
Dividends Paid to Shareholders -2500 -3000 -4000 -5500 -7000
Purchase / Retire Stock -2000 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500
Other Financing Activities
Total Financing Applications of Cas -6000 -6000 -6100 -7000 -8000
Total Change to Cash #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
48/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 48
Beginning Cash Balance 870 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Forecasted Ending Balance #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Cash and Cash Equivalents #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!Short Term Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable 3206 3594 3982 4369 4757
Inventory 2565 2875 3185 3495 3805
Other Current Assets 2084 2336 2588 2840 3092
Total Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Fixed Assets 31600 34600 37700 40400 43000
Accumulated Depreciation -3480 -3970 -4470 -4990 -5540
Net Fixed Assets 28120 30630 33230 35410 37460
Longterm Investments 1705 3105 5705 9905 15205
Investments in Other Companies 912 1662 2862 3512 3862
Intangibles and Other Assets 200 240 320 400 650
Total Non Current Assets 30937 35637 42117 49227 57177
Total Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Accounts Payable 5451 6110 6769 7428 8087
Short Term Borrowings 3848 4313 4778 5243 5708
Short Term Portion of LT Debt 30 30 25 20 15
Other Current Liabilities 1924 2156 2389 2622 2854
Total Current Liabilities 11252 12609 13961 15312 16664
Longterm Debt / Borrowings 3750 3750 4100 4350 4500
Other Longterm Liabilities 700 750 800 800 800
Total Non Current Liabilities 4450 4500 4900 5150 5300
Total Liabilities 15702 17109 18861 20462 21964
Preferred Equity
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
49/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 49
Common Equity 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200
Additional Paid in Capital 5700 5700 5700 5700 5700
Retained Earnings #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl -5000 -4000 -2500 -1500 -500
Treasury Stock -3550 -5550 -7050 -8050 -8550
Total Equity #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
External Financing Required (EFR) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
50/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 50
ProForma Financials (Exponential Smoothing / Weighted Moving Average)
X Y Z Corporation USA
A set of pro forma (forecasted) financial statements are generated using the results of
the historical analysis in the previous worksheets. A statistical method known as
exponential smoothing is used to plot a trend over historical data. Additionally, we
active can use a weighted moving average to forecast future periods.Key Point => If you have a general upward historical trend, weighted average will tend
to underestimate forecasted values and vice versa (downward trend = overestimate).
Exponential Smoothing and Weighted Moving Averages for Total Revenues:
Years => 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Total Revenues - Historical 12076 16719 21196 24737 27448
Total Revenues - Exponential 12076 12076 16719 21196 24737
Total Revenues - Wt Moving Avg 11105 15230 18890 21605 22965 26070
Smoothing Factor must be between 0 and 1 1 Total weights should add up to => 100.00%
Set Smoothing Factor 1
Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00% 1.50% 4.50% 34.50% 59.50% 100.00%
Find the Optimal Smoothing Factor:
Total Exponent
Revenues Amounts Difference Square
12076 12076
16719 12076 4643 21557449
21196 16719 4477 20043529
24737 21196 3541 12538681
27448 24737 2711 7349521
Mean Squared Error 12297836
Find the Optimal Moving Weights:
Total Weighted
Revenues Amounts Difference Square
12076 11105 971 942841
Home Wksh2
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12
Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
51/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 51
16719 15230 1489 2217121
21196 18890 2306 5317636
24737 21605 3132 9809424
27448 22965 4483 20100607
Mean Squared Error 7677526
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro Forma Income Statement
Gross Revenues 26070 26413 26316 26355 26340
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Exponential Comparison
TotalRevenues -Historical
Total
Revenues -Exponential
TotalRevenues - WtMoving Avg
Periods
TotalReve n
ues
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
52/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 52
Cost of Goods Sold -10197 -10207 -9860 -9694 -9740
Operating Expenses -6346 -6226 -6229 -6464 -6859
Operating Income 9527 9979 10227 10197 9740
NonOperating Expenses -3200 -3200 -3600 -3600 -4000
ExtraOrdinary Items 650 650 650 700 700
Net Income 6977 7429 7277 7297 6440
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
Sources of Operating Cash Flow:
Net Income 6977 7429 7277 7297 6440
Depreciation and Amortization 470 490 500 520 550
(Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes 0 0 0 0 0
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 9 2 3 6
(Increase) Decrease Current Assets #REF! -92 26 -11 4
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab #REF! 120 -34 14 -5
Operating Cash Flow #REF! 7956 7771 7824 6995
Investment Sources of Cash Flow:
Planned Sale of Assets 100 60 20 25 35
Planned Sale of Investments 2200 2100 1900 1800 1700Other Investment Sources to be used
Total Investment Sources of Cash 2300 2160 1920 1825 1735
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures -3500 -3000 -3100 -3900 -4600
Acquisitions -500 -750 -500
Purchases of Investments -2000 -3000 -3000 -1000 -1000
Total Investment Applications of Cash -6000 -6750 -6600 -4900 -5600
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
53/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 53
Cash Flow from Financing Activities:
Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1300 2000 3000 4500 7000
Proceeds from Minority Interest 20 60 80 90 100
Other Financing Activities
Total Financing Sources of Cash 1320 2060 3080 4590 7100
Cash Flow Applied for Financing:
Payments on Loans & Debt -1500 -1800 -2500 -4000 -6000
Dividends Paid to Shareholders -2500 -3000 -4000 -4000 -3000
Purchase / Retire Stock
Other Financing Activities
Total Financing Applications of Cash -4000 -4800 -6500 -8000 -9000
Total Change to Cash #REF! 626 -329 1339 1230
Beginning Cash Balance 870 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Forecasted Ending Balance #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Cash and Cash Equivalents #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Short Term Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable 2607 2641 2632 2636 2634
Inventory 2086 2113 2105 2108 2107
Other Current Assets 1695 1717 1711 1713 1712
Total Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Fixed Assets 31600 34600 37700 41600 46200
Accumulated Depreciation -3480 -3970 -4470 -4990 -5540
Net Fixed Assets 28120 30630 33230 36610 40660
Longterm Investments 705 1605 2705 1905 1205
Investments in Other Companies 912 1662 2162 2162 2162
Intangibles and Other Assets 75 100 150 150 100
Total Non Current Assets 29812 33997 38247 40827 44127
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
54/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 54
Total Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Accounts Payable 4432 4490 4474 4480 4478
Short Term Borrowings 3128 3170 3158 3163 3161
Short Term Portion of LT Debt 30 30 25 20 15
Other Current Liabilities 1564 1585 1579 1581 1580Total Current Liabilities 9155 9274 9236 9244 9234
Longterm Debt / Borrowings 3750 3950 4450 4950 5950
Other Longterm Liabilities 700 750 800 800 800
Total Non Current Liabilities 4450 4700 5250 5750 6750
Total Liabilities 13605 13974 14486 14994 15984
Preferred Equity
Common Equity 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200
Additional Paid in Capital 5700 5700 5700 5700 5700
Retained Earnings 17505 14505 10505 6505 3505
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl -5000 -3500 -1000
Treasury Stock -1550 -1550 -1550 -1550 -1550
Total Equity 18855 17355 15855 12855 9855
External Financing Required (EFR) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
55/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 55
2002 2003 2004 2005
26413 26316 26,355 26,340
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
56/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 56
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
57/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 57
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
58/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 58
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
59/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 59
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
60/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 60
Scenario Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
We can copy our forecast into a new worksheet and do scenario analysis and goal-seek analysis.
Although Microsoft Excel includes Scenario Manager, it can be easier and quicker to simply do our
scenario analysis manually. We can use Goal Seek to find a value for a cell given a corresponding
active formula in another cell.
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro Forma Income Statement (Simple Projection Method)
Scenario => Non Operating Expenses will decline by $ 100,000 in year 2003 and again in year 2005:
Gross Revenues 30742 34431 38562 43190 48373
Cost of Goods Sold -12024 -13467 -15083 -16893 -18920Operating Expenses -7483 -8381 -9387 -10513 -11775
NonOperating Expenses -3200 -3200 -3100 -3100 -3000
ExtraOrdinary Items 650 650 650 700 700
Net Income 8,685 10,033 11,643 13,384 15,378
Instead of copying our forecast into this worksheet, we can simply do scenario analysis directly in
the forecast itself.
Pro Forma Income Statement (Linear Trend Method)
Goal Seek => What total revenues are required if Net Income must be $ 13.5 million in Year 2004?
Gross Revenues 32064 35940 39816 44301 47569
Cost of Goods Sold -11607 -12847 -14087 -15327 -16567
Operating Expenses -7750 -8693 -9636 -10579 -11522
Non Operating Expenses -3549 -4088 -4627 -5166 -5705
Extra Ordinary Items 271 271 271 271 271
Net Income (formula cells) 9430 10584 11738 13500 14046
Do not change formula cells (goals) to values
Home Wksh2
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12
Wksh13
Wksh15 Wksh16
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
61/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 61
when using Goal Seek (Tools > Goal Seek)
This is the target cell that Goal Seek is seeking
to change per the value 13,500 in cell G34
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
62/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 62
Budget Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Once we complete our forecast, we can summarize and review it before finalizing it
into the form of budgets. We also need to summarize our assumptions that should
go into our final budget. We can start our budget process by reviewing the different
revenue forecast:active
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Summarize Revenue Forecast:
Simple Projection Model 30,742 34,431 38,562 43,190 48,373
Linear Trend Model 32064 35940 39816 43692 47569
Wt Moving Avg Model 26070 26413 26316 26355 26340Declining Growth Model 29644 31422 32679 33170 31000
Historical Data 12076 16719 21196 24737 27448
Projection using declining growth rates:
Gross Revenues 29644 31422 32679 33170 31000
Home Wksh2
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12
Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh16
40,000
50,000
60,000
Forecast Comparisons
SimpleProjectionModel
Linear TrendModel
Wt Movingenues
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
63/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 63
In addition to using linear models for forecasting, we can apply several non-linear (curve) models:
Logarithmic - Used when rate of change in data suddenly shifts upward or downward.
Power - Used when rate of change in data occurs at a specific rate.
Exponential - Used when rate of change is increasing or decreasing at ever higher rates.
Polynomial - Used when rate of change fluctuates with no pattern.
Logarithmic Trend
Actual Predicted Slope Intercept
Formula for Logarithmic Trendline x factor Values Value y c factor b factor
1 12,076 -11242 9600.92 11242.34
y = ( c * LN (x)) - b 2 16,719 -4587
3 21,196 -695
LN: Natural Logarithm 4 24,737 2067
5 27,448 4210
6 5960
7 74408 8722
9 9853
10 10865
Power Trendline
Actual Predicted Slope Intercept
y = b * x^c x factor Values Value y c factor b factor
1 12,076 11951 0.52 9.39
2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
10,000
20,000
, Avg ModelDecliningGrowth Model
Historical Data
Periods
TotalRe
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
64/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 64
2 16,719 17109 11951.33
3 21,196 21104
4 24,737 24493
5 27,448 27491
6 30212
7 32721
8 350639 37267
10 39356
Exponential Trendline < - calculate using c an
Actual Predicted Slope Intercept
x factor Values Value y c factor b factor ( c * x) EXP
y = b * EXP ( c * x ) 1 12,076 13061 0.2 9.27 0.20339 1.23
2 16,719 16007 10657.5 0.40678 1.5
3 21,196 19618 0.61017 1.84
4 24,737 24043 0.81356 2.26
5 27,448 29465 1.01695 2.766 36111 1.22034 3.39
7 44256 1.42373 4.15
8 54238 1.62712 5.09
9 66472 1.83051 6.24
10 81464 2.03390 7.64
Polynomial Trendline
Actual Predicted
y = (c2 * x^2) + (c1 * x^1) + b x factor Values Value y c2 c1 b
1 12,076 11997 -342.86 5933.34 6406.62 16,719 16902
3 21,196 21121
4 24,737 24654
5 27,448 27502
6 29664
7 31140
8 31930
9 32035
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
65/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 65
10 31454
Summarize Non Linear Curves on Graph:
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Logarithmic Trendline -11242 -4587 -695 2067 4210 5960 7440
Power Trendline 11951 17109 21104 24493 27491 30212 32721
Exponential Trendline 13061 16007 19618 24043 29465 36111 44256
Polynomial Trendline 11997 16902 21121 24654 27502 29664 31140
Actual Revenues 12,076 16,719 21,196 24,737 27,448
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
(20,000)
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Non Linear Trends
LogarithmicTrendline
PowerTrendline
ExponentialTrendline
PolynomialTrendline
ActualRevenues
TotalR
evenue
s
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
66/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 66
Variance Analysis of Past Budgets:
Accuracy in the budget process should be examined to determine the degree of error or
variance in the budget process. If the variance is high, this indicates a need to improve
planning techniques within the company. TBD: To be Determined
(Wksht 16)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Income Statement Items
Total Revenues - Budgeted 10500 14500 22500 28500 30000 30500
Total Revenues - Actual 12076 16719 21196 24737 27448 TBD
% difference from actual -13% -13% 6% 15% 9% #VALUE!
Cost of Goods Sold - Budgeted -4500 -6500 -8648 -9650 -11000 -11929
Cost of Goods Sold - Actual -4950 -7050 -8233 -9050 -10150 TBD
% difference from actual -9% -8% 5% 7% 8% #VALUE!
Operating Income - Budgeted 3100 4900 9000 11000 10,500 11146
Operating Income - Actual 3815 5776 8309 9995 10150 TBD
% difference from actual -19% -15% 8% 10% 3% #VALUE!
Net Income - Budgeted 2100 4100 6500 9000 9300 7986
Net Income - Actual #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? TBD% difference from actual #NAME? -17% 4% 14% 21% #VALUE!
Balance Sheet Items
Current Assets - Budgeted 3450 4400 6250 7500 7900 #REF!
Current Assets - Actual #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! TBD
% difference from actual #REF! -12% 8% 10% 5% #VALUE!
NonCurrent Assets - Budgeted 10900 14000 22000 27500 29,500 31555
Periods
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
67/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 67
NonCurrent Assets - Actual #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! TBD
% difference from actual #REF! -14% 10% 8% 11% #VALUE!
Current Liabilities - Budgeted 3750 5600 8200 9050 9400 10715
Current Liabilities - Actual #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! TBD
% difference from actual #REF! -10% 11% 5% -3% #VALUE!
NonCurrent Liabilities - Budgeted 1750 2450 3750 4900 5100 5250
NonCurrent Liabilities - Actual 1810 2500 3301 4490 4945 TBD
% difference from actual -3% -2% 14% 9% 3% #VALUE!
Ratio Items
Current Ratio - Budgeted 1 1 1 1 0.80 #REF!
Current Ratio - Actual #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! TBD
% difference from actual #REF! -2% -2% 5% 3% #VALUE!
Total Asset Turnover - Budgeted 0.68 0.72 0.80 0.80 0.79 #REF!
Total Asset Turnover - Actual #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! TBD% difference from actual #REF! -8% -3% 4% -2% #VALUE!
Gross Profit Margin - Budgeted 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 1
Gross Profit Margin - Actual 59% 58% 61% 63% 63% TBD
% difference from actual 2% 4% -2% -5% -5% #VALUE!
Net Profit Margin - Budgeted 19% 25% 28% 30% 28% 26%
Net Profit Margin - Actual #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? TBD
% difference from actual #NAME? -16% -5% -6% 0% #VALUE!
Debt to Common Equity - Budget 0.45 0.50 0.60 0.65 0.55 #REF!
Debt to Common Equity - Actual 1 1 1 1 1 TBD
% difference from actual -11% -20% -4% 13% 4% #VALUE!
Return on Equity - Budgeted 20% 29% 32% 35% 30% #REF!
Return on Equity - Actual 24% 33% 35% 33% 26% TBD
% difference from actual -16% -13% -9% 5% 16% #VALUE!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
68/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 68
We can use specific measurements to track and control forecasting errors:
Mean Absolute Error - An absolute value of forecast errors, does not place weight on the
amount of the error. Calculated as the sum of (actual values - predicted values) / n.
Mean Square Error - Similar to Mean Absolute Error, but does place more emphasis on
the amount of error; i.e. an error of 8 is twice as significant as 4. Calculated as the
sum of (actual values - predicted values)^2 / n.
Root Mean Square Error - To make the Mean Square Error useful and comparable to the Mean
Absolute Error, we can take the square root of the Mean Square Error. We can then use this
as a guide to establish an error limit or standard for flagging unacceptable errors. Is Error
Actual Forecasted Error Outside
Example: Total Revenues Period Revenues Revenues Error Absolute Squared Limit?
n: total number of periods 1996 12076 10500 1576 1576 2483776 No
1997 16719 14500 2219 2219 4923961 Yes
1998 21196 22500 -1304 1304 1700416 No1999 24737 28500 -3763 3763 14160169 Yes
2000 27448 30000 -2552 2552 6512704 Yes
n => 5 Sum => -3824 3824 14622976 Yes
Mean Absolute Error 765
Mean Square Error 2924595
Root Mean Sqr Error 1,710
Establish Error Limits 1,710
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
69/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 69
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
70/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 70
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
71/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 71
d b factor - >
Predicted
Value y
13061
16007
19618
24043
2946536111
44256
54238
66472
81464
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
72/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 72
2003 2004 2005
8722 9853 10865
35063 37267 39356
54238 66472 81464
31930 32035 31454
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
73/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 73
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
74/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 74
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
75/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 75
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
76/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 76
Final Budgets for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Now that we have analyzed our historical data and placed it into a set of
forecast, we can pull it all together with our assumptions for a final budget.
Many of these assumptions should be included in our forecast for improved
accuracy. However, we need to fine tune and finalize all assumptionsactive so that we can produce a final finished budget for planning purposes.
Budget
Period
Ref 2001 Assumptions & Comments
Operating Plan
16-1 Total Revenues 30500 Based on review of Pro Forma Financials, Marketing, etc.
16-2 Cost of Goods Sold -11929 Volume projections, production budgets, and vertical analysis16-3 Operating Expenses -7424 Average % of Sales per Vertical Analysis16-4 Operating Income 11146
16-5 Interest Expenses -310 Based on anticipated levels of debt and past history
16-6 Income Taxes -3300 Based on anticipated taxable income and effective rate16-7 Other Non Operating Expenses -200 Provision for contingency was added on this line item
16-8 Earnings Before Extra Ord Items 733616-9 Extra Ordinary Items 650 Per our Simple Model Forecast
16-10 Net Income 7986
Financial Plan
Budgeted Cash Flows
16-11 Net Income 798616-12 Depreciation and Amortization 470 Review of Simple Model Forecast and Capital Expenditure Bud
16-13 (Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes
Home Wksh2
Wksh3 Wksh4
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12
Wksh13 Wksh14Wksh15
http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/http://opt/scribd/conversion/tmp/scratch2631/8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
77/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 77
16-14 (Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 Per Simple Forecast Model
16-15 (Increase) Decrease Current Assets #REF! Same formula as used in forecast models
16-16 (Increase) Decrease Current Liab #REF! Same formula as used in forecast models
16-17 Operating Cash Flow #REF!
Investment Sources of Cash:
16-18 Planned Sale of Assets 100 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-19 Planned Sale of Investments 2200 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-20 Other Investment Sources to be use
16-21 Total Investment Sources of Cash 2300
Planned Investments:
16-22 Capital Expenditures -4500 Budgeted $ 4.5 million in Capital Expenditure Budget
16-23 Acquisitions in Other Co's -350 Per forecast, strategic plan, and other budgets
16-24 Purchases of Investments -2500 Per forecast, strategic plan, and other budgets
16-25 Total Investment Applications of Cas -7350
Cash Flow from Financing Activities
16-26 Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1450 Per Financing Requirements and other budgets
16-27 Proceeds from Minority Interest 15 Per historical financials and investment budget
16-28 Other Financing Activities
16-29 Total Financing Sources of Cash 1465
Cash Flow Applied for Financing:
16-30 Payments on Loans and Debt -1250 Per forecast and other budgets
16-31 Dividends Paid to Shareholders -2500 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-32 Purchase / Retire Stock -1500 Per strategic plan and other budgets16-33 Other Financing Activities
16-34 Total Financing Applications of Cas -5250
16-35 Total Change to Cash #REF!
16-36 Beginning Cash Balance 870
16-37 Forecasted Ending Balance #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
78/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 78
Budgeted Balance Sheet
16-38 Cash and Cash Equivalents #REF! Per above
16-39 Short Term Marketable Securities 10 Per historical financials
16-40 Accounts Receivable 3050 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-41 Inventory 2440 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-42 Other Current Assets 1983 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-43 Total Current Assets #REF!
16-44 Fixed Assets 32600 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-45 Accumulated Depreciation -3480 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-46 Net Fixed Assets 29120
16-47 Longterm Investments 1205 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-48 Investments in Other Companies 1000 Per review of forecast and strategic plans
16-49 Intangibles and Other Assets 230 Per review of forecast and historical balances
16-50 Total Non Current Assets 31555
16-51 Total Assets #REF!
16-52 Accounts Payable 5185 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-53 Short Term Borrowings 3660 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-54 Short Term Portion of LT Debt 40 Per review of forecast and historical information
16-55 Other Current Liabilities 1830 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-56 Total Current Liabilities 10715
16-57 Longterm Debt / Borrowings 4150 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-58 Other Longterm Liabilities 1100 Per review of historical information and expected growth rates.
16-59 Total Non Current Liabilities 5250
16-60 Total Liabilities 15965
16-61 Preferred Stock
16-62 Common Equity 2200 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-63 Additional Paid in Capital 5700 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-64 Retained Earnings 25491 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-65 Adj for Foreign Currency Translation -5000 Per Simple Model Forecast
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
79/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 79
16-66 Treasury Stock -3050 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-67 Total Equity 25341
16-68 Total Liabilities and Equity 41306
16-69 External Financing Required #REF!
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
80/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 80
get
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
81/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 81
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
82/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 82
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
83/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 83
Microsoft Excel 9 0 Answer Report
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
84/85
Prepared by Matt H. Evans 06/15/2011 Page 84
Microsoft Excel 9.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [Detail_Analysis.xls]13 - Pro Forma (Exp)
Report Created: 3/16/2002 3:42:28 PM
Target Cell (Min)
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$G$60Mean Squared Error Square 20525549 12297836
Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 1 1
Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$D$23Smoothing Factor must be between 0 and $D$23>=$D$2 Binding
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 1 $D$24
8/6/2019 FS Analisis Lengkap
85/85
Microsoft Excel 9.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [Detail_Analysis.xls]13 - Pro Forma (Exp)
Report Created: 3/16/2002 5:19:05 PM
Target Cell (Min)
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$G$46Mean Squared Error Square 65536151 59853342
Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$D$25Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00% 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 2.00% 1.50%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up t 5.00% 4.50%
$G$25Assign weights to appropriate periods 35.00% 34.50%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 60.00% 59.50%
Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$I$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 100.00% $I$25=$E$23 Binding 0
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00% $D$25=$D$2 Not Binding ###