Future Oil & Gas Production: A Forecast
Ian Atkinson, P. Geo.
Oil & Gas Development Partnership
Memorial University of Newfoundland
May 16, 2007
Warning!
The following presentation is for Mature Audiences Viewer discretion is advised
Sedimentary Basins of
Atlantic Canada
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mill
ions
of B
arre
ls
0
10
20
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50
60
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80
90
Hibernia Terra Nova White Rose Oil Price
Hibernia
Terra Nova
White Rose
Locke 2007, C-NLOPB
Oil Production Forecast
Sedimentary Basins of
Atlantic Canada
The Jeanne d’Arc Basin
C-NLOPB and
the Dept. of Natural Resources
Significant Discoveries on the
Labrador Shelf
Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board
Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board
North Bjarni Field: 2.2 Tcf gas, 82 MMbbls NGL’s
Gudrid Field: 918 Bcf gas, 6.9 MMbbls NGL’s
Bjarni Field: 858 Bcf gas, 31.4 MMbbls NGL’s
Hopedale Field: 106 Bcf gas, 2.5 MMbbls NGL’s
Snorri Field: 106 Bcf gas, 2.5 MMbbls NGL’s
(P50 values, see DeSilva, 1999)
Sedimentary
Basins of
Atlantic Canada
The Dept of Natural Resources
The Department of Natural Resources
Onshore and Offshore Exploration Licences of
Newfoundland and Labrador
Sedimentary
Basins of
Atlantic Canada
The Dept. of Natural Resources
Western Newfoundland
Exploration Licences
The Department of Natural Resources
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mill
ions
of B
arre
ls
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Hibernia Terra Nova White Rose Oil Price
Hebron/Ben Nevis
Orphan Basin?
Western Newfoundland?
Laurentian Basin?
Labrador Gas?
Jeanne d’Arc Gas?White Rose
Terra Nova
Hibernia
White Rose +
Oil Production Forecast - Base Case
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
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09
20
11
20
13
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15
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17
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25
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27
20
29
Year
An
nu
al
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
illi
on
bb
ls) Hebron
White RoseTerra NovaHibernia
Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board
Western Newfoundland?
Jeanne d’Arc Gas?
Labrador Gas?
Laurentian Basin
Orphan Basin
White Rose +
Hebron
White Rose
Terra Nova
Hibernia
Sedimentary
Basins of
Atlantic Canada
Thank You
The Oil & Gas Development Partnership