FuturinggExecutive Education2014 UNICON Directors´ Conference @HKUSTApril 2, 2014 © Mia de [email protected] www.profitpowereconomics.com
Mia de KuijperFuturing at UNICONAn Introduction
© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.
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Futuring at UNICONWh t h l d b t S i St t ?What have we learned about Scenario Strategy?
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2014 UNICON Directors´ Conference @ HKUSTFUTURING Executive Education, 2nd April, 2014U U G ecut e ducat o , p , 0
9:00-10:30• Questionnaire Results• Lecture: Scenario Planning for a Connected and Turbulent World• Small Team Discussion: What is the Focal Question for YOUR institution?
10:30-11:00 Break11:00-12:30
• Lecture: The Critical Elements of Modern Scenarios• Break Out: Drivers, Uncertainties and Power Nodes in Executive Education • Team presentations
12:30-13:30 Lunch13:30-15:30
• Building Scenarios• Break Out:: Building Scenarios for Executive Education• Team Presentations and Voting
15:30-16:00 Break16:00-17:00
• Announcing Winners, Break Out : Living the Scenarios, Implications--Actions
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The QuestionsQ1: What is your Value Proposition?Q2a: Which trends, drivers concern you +/-?Q , y /Q2b: Which uncertainties might deliver surprises?Q3: If your outlook became reality, would your
Value Proposition be future-proof?Q4: How well and how fast could you adapt?
© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.
FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q1: What is your Value Proposition?Quest o a e esu ts Q at s you a ue opos t o
of Mentions
Academic based
Transformational Exec Ed
Cli C i i
Blended Learning
Academic based
of Mentions
Outreach, branding
Client Centricity
0 5 10 15 20
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© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.
FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q2a: which trends, drivers Quest o a e esu ts Q a c t e ds, d e sgive you cause for concern or excitement?
# of mentions
Bl d d T h l
Entrants, MOOCs
Price cost
Faculty Mismatch
Blended, Technology
Demand growth
Globalization
Price, cost # of mentions
0 5 10 15 20
Open vd Custom
Demand growth
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0 5 10 15 20
3-Dimensional Competition, New EntrantsMOOCSConsultantsIn-house client trainingAggregatorsInternational institutionsFaculty want to become (MOOC) starsFaculty want to become (MOOC) stars
Fading industry boundariesWebinarsC hiCoachingBusiness simulationsEntutainment
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Talent Assessment
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FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q2b: Which UncertaintiesQuest o a e esu ts Q b c U ce ta t escould deliver upside or downside surprises?cause s # of Mentions
B model consolidation
Economy
Technology
B-model, consolidation
# of Mentions
Funding
Entrants
0 5 10 15 20
g
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FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results: Q3 if your outlook became realityQuestionnaire Results: Q3 if your outlook became reality,
would your Value Proposition be future-proof?# of responses
5
10
0yes no maybe # of responses
-10
-5y y
-15
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Yes, Maybe, But..We would need to narrow our portfolioThe WHAT and the HOW would have to changeWill have to redo it…We could survive as a professional service firmWe might have to become a boutiqueWe would need more international alliancesWe would need more international alliancesWe would need to reduce costs, and deliver more applied learning at reduced pricesWe could become a niche playerWe could become a niche playerWe would change our model from faculty/program-based to solutions-orientedW ld d t l t t d bl d d l i
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We would need to accelerate moves towards blended learningHigher investment would be needed
FUTURING Executive EducationQuestionnaire Results Q4: if your outlook become reality, Quest o a e esu ts Q you out oo beco e ea ty,
how well and how fast would your institution adapt?
14
16
maybe
4
6
8
10
12
yes
no
maybe
yes
no
0
2
4
adapt welladapt fast
© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.
Business schools are better atBusiness schools are better at analyzing disruptive innovation than dealing with it
Demand for good management is spreading to the emerging world and to public and voluntary sectorsBut (they) face huge risks while changes are sweeping through the education industry◦ No barriers to entry
Captured by the academic guild◦ Captured by the academic guild ◦ Emerging price competition
◦ Source: The Economist Feb 8, 2014
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¨There is a pressing need for large organizations to build their leadership pipeline …
AND we live in a hyper-competitive industry, ripe for disruptionby new entrants and new technologies
We as an industry are still faculty-centric, not client-centric. If we don´t learn to be more sharply focused on our clients, we will become irrelevant
The Exec Ed space is changing rapidly
If we can adapt, there will be many opportunities¨
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Scenario Planning for a Connected and Turbulent WorldConnected and Turbulent World
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Today´s World:
We want to improve our ability to anticipate, andand We need to increase our agility to take action
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Scenarios do:
Anticipating transforming changesPreviewing the futureO i th t d t di tOvercoming the tendency to predictSeeing multiple possibilites for the futureSense-making, spotting patternsg, p g pGenerating options: for actions and strategiesSensing: being alert to signals earlyConversing strategically: sharing understanding:Conversing strategically: sharing understanding: this future and that future
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Steps in Scenario Planning• Identify Focal Questions• Bring outside in, expand mental maps
Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment• Use Scenarios: Implications Options Actions• Use Scenarios: Implications, Options, Actions• Sense the environment
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Identify the focal questions
ff f© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.
The official future The 7 questions
Bring the outside in, expand Bring the outside in, expand MentalMental MapsMapsMental Mental MapsMaps
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The rabbit that is already in the hat
A driving force is an issue/force/trend that is already at work and that will shape the futurealready at work and that will shape the future inevitably—we just do not know yet how
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Steps in Scenario Planning• Identify Focal Questions• Bring outside in, expand mental maps
Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment• Implications Options Actions• Implications, Options, Actions• Sense the environment
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1 Brand 2 Secret 3 Regulatory 4 Focused1. Brand 2. SecretIngredient
3. RegulatoryProtection
4. FocusedFinancialResources
5. CustomerBase withSwitching
6. ProprietaryProcess
7. DistributionGateways
8. DominantPosition ina Layer
Cost
9. IncreasingM l
10. AikidoA
11. Filtersd
12. HubsMutualUtility
Assets andBrokers
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Source: Profit Power Economics © Mia de Kuijper
Steps in Scenario Planning• Identify Focal Questions• Bring outside in, expand mental maps
Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment• Implications Options Actions• Implications, Options, Actions• Sense the environment
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Scenarios: Telling the StoryScenarios: Telling the Story
“ Oil is NOT a COMMODITY!” Oil is NOT a COMMODITY!
© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved..
Steps in Scenario Planning• Identify Focal Questions• Bring outside in, expand mental maps
Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment• Implications Options Actions• Implications, Options, Actions• Sense the environment
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Sense the environmentSense the environment
© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.©1984 FarWorks, Inc.
©1984 FarWorks, Inc.
Steps in Scenario Planning• Identify Focal Questions• Bring outside in, expand mental maps
Identify Driving Forces Uncertainties• Identify Driving Forces, Uncertainties• Identify Power Node Dynamics• Develop Scenarios• Present the Scenarios, Tell the Story• Sense the environment - add aikido• Use the Scenarios: Implications Actions• Use the Scenarios: Implications, Actions• Sense the environment
© Copyright by Mia de Kuijper 2010. All rights reserved.© Mia de Kuijper