ConneCtivity
LoCaLisation
GLobaLisation
Cooperation
infLation
Happiness
Debt
DefLation
Introduction 5
Trendblend2009+ 6-7
TheTenTrends 8-18
100Wordstodescribe2009 19
Thingsthataresupposedtobedead 20-21
TheWorldinNumbers 22-23
PastTrends 24
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“ Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward
those who are not regarded as members of the herd. ”
BertrandRussell
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Welcome to 2009. This report is an annual review of the year ahead and is generally fairly easy to put together. Not this year. The problem has been events. More specifically, the speed at which things continue to change. Impossible really is nothing these days.
Last year two key themes highlighted in the introduction were the question of who would inherit the US economy (“an economy balanced on a knife edge”) and the Beijing Olympics (“a coming out party for what will one day be the largest and most powerful nation on earth… Maybe”). This year two of the biggest questions are whether or not Barack Obama can rebuild America’s shattered economy and reputation worldwide and whether or not China will follow America into the economic twilight zone.
One major trend that flows from all this uncertainty is anxiety, which will in turn drive an interest in safety, security and permanence. People are no longer in the mood to experiment and we can therefore expect the return of simplicity, no-frills, back to basics, seriousness, saving and fiscal conservatism.
The other thought that flows from current events is the degree to which events follow historical or predictable patterns. One of the main reasons that the world is in the mess it is today is that some people forgot about cycles. People borrowed heavily to purchase what they wanted or used paper profits created by real estate to support lifestyles that were unsustainable, particularly if they had an eye on economic cycles or the performance of real estate over a long enough period. Therefore, perhaps 2009 will be the year when people finally say enough to the pervasive influence of materialism and reconnect with some of the simpler pleasures of life. Perhaps we will see a subtle cultural shift from ‘me’ to ‘we.’ We’ll see. If the economy picks up sooner than expected I’d imagine that most people will just dust themselves off and carry on as though nothing ever happened.
Richard Watson, January 2009.
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This year’s edition of Ten Trends is printed in black & white in line with one of the trends for 2009, namely back to basics. Hopefully 2010 will turn out to be more colourful.
SocietyGlobal Risk
Dangerous currents
Possible red herring
* Size of circle denotes likely impact of trend (hey, it’s just an educated guess).
Technology
Economy
Environment
Politics
Business
Family
Media
Trend Blend 2009+a m a p o f t i m e a n d t i d e
L E G E N D
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1264
5783
23
4
5
6
7
1
8
/gas price spikes
Alternative energy bubble
Outsourcing backlash
Low cost competition
Resource shortages
Skills shortages
Increased regulation
Asset price uncertainty
Networked risk
Rehiring of retirees
Energy insecurity
Web 2.0 campaigning
Immigration backlash
Green taxes
ProtectionismVirtual protests
EMF radiation
Rapid growth oftransnational crime
Map by Richard Watson with help from Ben. More at www.nowandnext.com
Credit default swaps
Collapse of nuclear non-proliferation treaty
Global supply chain disruption
Electricity shortages
People taking trend maps too seriously
Slowdown in growth
Industry consolidation
Growth of autocracy
Rising protectionism
Globalisation in retreat
Fall of US Empire
De-leveraging
Virtualisation
Simplicity
Data security
Energy storage
Telepresence
Device convergence
Cloud computing
Merchantilism
Pensions funding
Prediction markets
Shorter product lifecycles
Re-regulation
Inflation
2-speed economies
Sovereign wealth funds
Deflation
Allowable luxuries
Debt stress
Single person households
IMBYs
Extended financial families
Renting things
Home cooked meals
Unplugging
Middle class unrest
Gated communitiesBack to basics
AgeingGRIN tech
Web 2.0
Green IT
Iran
Utility
Authenticity
Trust
Islands of Tranquility
Enoughism
Old skool
We not meSearch forcontrol
Space weather
Power Shift Eastwards
Climatechange
crisisDigitalisation
Anxiety
Debt
GlobalConnectivity
Sustainability
Uncertainty
Obesity
Volatility
Facebook fatigue
Flight to quality
Seriousness
e-books
Fantasy & escape
Micro-boredom
Digital diets
Digital privacy
Influenza pandemic
Severe heatwaves
Return of SARS
Religious and ethnic tension
Increased societalappetite for risk
Food shortages
Nicole Kidman winsanother Oscar
Majorinternet
failure
Criticalinfrastructure
attack
Major earthquake ineconomic centre
Severe water shortages
Storytelling
Too muchinformation
Online video
Short formats
Skimming
Urbanisation
Green cities
Nuclear power
Energy dashboards
Negawatts
Peak landfill
Declining water quality
Bio-fuel backlash
Eco-Cynics
Vertical agriculture
Nano-solar
Wind powerClean coal
Oi
Collapse of US dollar
CSR
Transparency
Income inequality
Pakistan
l
This map is published under a Creative Commons Attribution - ShareAlike License.
Robotics
Gesture based computing
Mobile computing
Geo-fencing
Wearelivinginanxioustimes.FirstitwasY2Kandthen9/11.Morerecentlywe’vebeenworriedbythethreatof a global flupandemic,SARS,DeepVeinThrombosis, rogueasteroids, climate changeandnow1929returning.Runninginparalleltoallthis,trustinlargeinstitutions(especiallygovernmentandbigbusiness)hasallbutevaporated(orwe’vebecomemorecynicalabouttheabilityoftheseinstitutionstotellusthetruthordeliver).Theresultisanewageofanxiety.Peopleareworriedaboutjobs,homes,savingsandtheplanet.Thisinsecurityistosomeextentgenerational,butthereisageneralfeelingthattheworldhasspunoutofcontrolandthatsomeoneistoblame.
Peoplearelookingforscapegoatsbuttheyarealsolookingforsafety,reassuranceandcontrol.Thismeansthatpeoplewill tendtostickwith individualsand institutionsthattheyknowandtrust.Hence individualsmoving out of shares towards ‘safe savings’ such as gilts and low risk bonds. People will stay in jobsand education for longer and will aspire to public sector jobs due to perceived security. Finally, peoplewillmoveawayfromsillyspendingonthingssuchasorganicwater,althoughtherewillstillbeamarketforpermissibleindulgences.
We may also see a demand for salary and profit caps in certain industries and there could also beanincreaseinadhoccampaignstargetingspecificorganizationsthatpeoplefeelareguiltyofbreachingnewbehaviouralnorms.
Intermsofopportunities,productsandservicesthatgiveasenseofsecurityorreducestresswilldowell.Thiscouldbeprovidedbytechnologybutgenerallyit’sreassurancewithahumanfaceattachedthatpeopleareafter.Nostalgicproductsandexperiencesthattapintothe(largelyfalse)beliefthatweoncelivedinsaferandmorecertaintimeswillalsodowell
Fear,uncertainty,debt,debt-stress,climatechange,unemploymentandtrust.
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1. Fear&Loathing
2. De-Leveraging
3. BacktoBasics
4. DigitalDiets
5. Enoughism
6. IMBY’s
7. Seriousness
8. TheHumanBrain
9. Eco-Wars
10. FearoftheUnknown
Bye bye complex financial products – at least for a while. Following the sub-prime fiasco, simplicity,transparencyandproductsthatarenotover-engineeredoroverlycomplexareback invogue.Sotooarelocallenderswherewhatyouseeiswhatyouget.Butthisswingbacktotheoldskooldoesn’tjustapplytofinancialservices.Uncertaintyandanxietyaredrivingpeopletowardspeopleandproductsthattheyknowandunderstandinallspheres.
Ifpeoplearestrappedforcashtheywilldomanyofthethingsthattheydidthelasttimetherewasamajorrecession.Thereforeexpecttoseearesurgenceoffreshhomecookedmeals(becausecookingfromscratchcosts lessmoneybutalsobecausehomecooking tends topull the immediate familyback together).Weshouldalsoseemorepeoplegrowingtheirownfood,mendingtheirownclothes,cleaningtheirownhousesandfixingtheirowncars.Atleastwewillforawhileuntilpeoplerememberhowdifficultandfrustratingsomeoftheseactivitiesareandreverttopreviousbehaviour.
Productsthatarebasicinthesenseofbeingstrippeddownorsimpletounderstandanduse.Forinstance,own brand or house brand products in supermarkets will do well as will supermarket brands that arethemselvesbasic(e.g.AldiandLidl).Wemayalsoexperienceanincreasedlevelofinterestinold-fashioned,ecologicallyresponsibleitemssuchashand-poweredlawnmowers,washinglinesandbicycles.Havingsaidthis,iftheeconomiccrisisisshort-livedpeoplewillrevertbacktotypeprettyquickly.
Nostalgia,simplicity,localisation,provenance,no-frills,austerity,valueformoney.
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Whatcheapcreditand irrationalexuberancegiveth,tighter lendingcontrolsanduncertaintytakethaway.Growthisslowingdownandinstitutionsandindividualswillgetridofasmuchdebtasfastastheycan.Thelastdecadesawanunprecedentedlevelofspending,mostofitdrivenbycheapmoneyandtheattitudethatwhatwentupno longerwentdown.The impactoffinancialderegulationand innovationalsomeantthatpeoplewereofferednewwaystoowemoremoneytomorepeople.Noneofthisisnecessarilyaproblemifyouhaveajob,butifyoudon’tthingscanturnverynastyveryquicklyindeed.
Organisationswill reducetheirdependencyondebt.Thismeansthat theywillsellassetsalthoughbysodoingtheywillinadvertentlypushthevalueoftheseassetsevenlower.Forindividualssellingassetsismoreproblematicbecausetheirlargestassetisgenerallytheirhome.Hencetheonlyrealstrategyistospendlessbycuttingbackonnon-essentials.Thismeansbuyingless,fixingthingsratherthanthrowingthemawayandpossiblyrentingthingsratherthanbuyingthemoutright.
Intermsofbusiness,expecttoseemoreconsolidationwithmarketsbecomingmorepolarisedbetweentheverylargeandtheverysmall.Inthepublicsector,expecttoseegovernmentdebtsoar,resultinginavarietyofu-turnsoverspendingpledgesinareassuchasclimatechange,education,healthandtransport.
Thedebtbingeisnotgoingawaycompletelybutit’slikelythatweareenteringaneweraofthriftanddelayedgratification.Themainforcedrivingthisistheeconomybuttheenvironmentisalsoafactor.
Industry consolidation, deferred gratification, cost savings, clothing swaps, second-hand stores, garagesalesandsellingonauctionsites.
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People are becoming alarmed about the health of the planet and especially the pervasive influence ofmaterialismupon their lives.Somepeople have thereforedecided to takepersonal responsibility anddosomethingaboutit.Enoughismisaboutswitchingthingsoff,buyinglessstuffandseekingtoreconnectwiththesimplerpleasuresoflife.Itisaworldwherequalitycounts.Peoplearestillpreparedtopayforthingsbuttheyexpectthemtolast.ThetrendisbestsummedupbyTomHodgkinsoninhisbook‘HowtoBeFree’,whotalksabouttheshiftfromfindingoutwhatyouwanttodiscoveringwhatyoucandowithout.
Organizations will become increasingly values-driven. They will also become more connected with theircommunities,beitageographicareaorthewidercommunityofemployees,customersandsuppliers.
Peoplewillbespendingmoretimewiththeirimmediatefamilyandfriends.Thisisanopportunitybecausepeoplewillbeinterestedinthingsthatenablethisortapintotheneedtoslowthingsdownalittle.However,using technology togivepeoplesuperficialor remoteaccess is liable tobackfire.Hencechildcare robots(currentlyavailableinJapan)willnotbeaninstanthit.
Down-shifting,work/lifebalance,searchformeaningandspirituality.
Peoplearedrowningindigitaldata.Forexample,accordingtoanAustraliansurvey,63%ofpeoplefeelthattheyareoverloadedwith informationand40%havedifficultyrememberingmorethan3phonenumbers.Peoplearealsorealisingthatbeinglessconnectedcanactuallybeagoodthing.Forexample,somepeopleare starting to findout that youcanhave toomanydigital friends.Hencenot responding to friendshipsrequestsordroppingoutofsocialnetworkswillbecomecommonplace.Similarlypeopleareslowlywakinguptothefactthattheywasteanextraordinaryamountoftimeandmoneyontechnologythatdoesn’tmaketheirlivesanyeasierorbetter.Thusunpluggingonagenerallevelwillbecomepopularasawayofrebalancingfranticandfreneticlives.
Inmanyinstancesthistrendwillbedrivenbynecessity.Itisawayofsavingmoneyorreclaimingpersonalorfamilytime.However,thereisalsoanaspirationalelementtothistrend.Inthesamewaythatowningamobilephonewasonceseenasamarkofsophistication,notowningone(orusingonesparingly)isbecomingasignalthatapersonhassortedouttheirprioritiesorhasrebalancedtheirlife.Peoplemayalsodecidethatinsomeinstancestheoldwayswerethebetterwaysandwillstarttouseproductsandservicesthatdonotrequirepowerorareanantidotetofastdigitalalternatives.
Expecttoseeaninterestinanalogueproducts.Forexample,fountainpens,wet-filmphotography,landlinetelephones,paperdiariesandvinylrecords.
NoemailFridays,noBlackberryBankHolidays,FacebookFatigue,MySpaceMalaise,unpluggedvacations(camping,canoeingandwalkingetc).
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Intimesofseriouseconomicupheavalindividualshavetwooptions.Thefirstoptionistoburyonesheadinthesandandgosomewhereelse(everythingfromescapistmoviestovirtualworlds).Thesecondrouteistofindoutwhat’sgoingon.SeriousnewspapersandmagazinessuchasTheFinancialTimesandTheEconomistareseeing increases incirculationand theyarebeing joinedbyaplethoraof steadfastlyold-fashionedink-on-dead-treetitlessuchasProspect,TheWeeklyStandard,Harper’sandTheMonthly.Thistrendisprimarilyevidentwithinnewspapersandmagazinesbutthesameaffectcanbeseenwithnon-fictionbooks.
Thereisundoubtedlyalargemarketforinformationandentertainmentthatisdumbeddownandservedinsmallbite-sizedchunks.However,thereisalsoalargemarketfortheanalysisofcomplexissuesandideas.Outsideofmediaexpectthingstobecomemoreseriousinotherareastoo.Fashionwillbecomesmarterandmoreformal(atleastatwork)andhaircutswillgetshorter.
Physicalobjectsandliveexperiencestailoredtoaneedtoknow.
Documentaries,literaryfestivals,publicdebates,seriouspolitictions.
7. Seriousness
Peoplearebecomingdisillusionedwiththeeffectsofglobalisation.Thuswearestartingtoseethedevelopmentofcampaignstomakeproductionandconsumptionmorelocal.HenceIMBYs(InMyBackYard).ThistrendistheoppositeofthepreviousNIMBYtrend(NotInMyBackYard).
Thislinkswithenvironmentalconcernsbutisalsodrivenbyadesiretocontroloutcomes.Thus,inthesamewaythatpeopleoncecampaignedtostopthingshappeninglocally,therewillnowbecampaignstoensurethateverythingfromfactoriestoschoolsarebuiltaroundthecornerandsupportthelocalcommunity.
Thetrendismostevidentwithfoodwherelocalisationandprovenancearealreadyimportantbutthetrendwillmovebeyondthistoaffecteverythingfrompoliticstobusiness.
An interest inall things local, includingprotests.Addapinchofausterityand thriftcausedbyeconomiccircumstancesandthistrendcouldbeacatalystforamajorshifttowardslocalinteractions.Alsoexpecttoseeboomindomestictravelandlocalholidays.
Life-Storylabellingofproductsandserviceswhentheseproductsandservicesare‘homegrown’.
Economicprotectionism,localisation,nationalism,regulationandprovenance.
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Haveyounoticedhowglobalwarminghasturnedintoareligiouscrusadeoflate?Ononesidewehavetheevangelicalbelieversthattalkinapocalyptictermsaboutthe‘endofdays.’Opposingthemarethehereticswhodenyanythingishappeningorinsistthatitisstilluncertainwhysomethingishappeningorwhattheconsequenceswillbe.Bothsidesusearmiesoffactstofighttheirbattlesalthoughbothsidesseemtoforgetthatthese‘facts’arehistoricalandthatanyforecastisjustapredictionandnotanempiricalobservation.Somewhereinthemiddleofthisarethevastmajorityofpeoplewhosuspectthatsomethingsignificantisgoingonbutaren’ttoosurewhat,duetothecomplexityofthedebate.
Thedebatewillcontinuetopolarisealongtheoldlinesofleftandright.Radicalenvironmentalistswillarguethataccumulatingwealthismorallysuspectandwillpursueananti-consumeristandanti-capitalistagendathat includespopulationcontrol,highertaxation,newregulatoryregimesandradicalchangestopersonalattitudesandbehaviour.Theothersidewillincreasinglyarguethatthemindofmanisattimestakenoverbyanxietyandapprehensionwhenphysicalenemiesdisappear.
Onthebalanceofprobabilityclimatechangeisarealissueandorganizationsshouldbedoingsomethingaboutit,ifonlyfromariskmanagementperspective.InotherwordsweowetheEarththebenefitofthedoubt.Havingsaidthisthereareworsecatastrophesimaginableandtheremightbebetterwaysofspendingtrillionsofdollarsifyourfundamentalobjectiveiseithertosavethemostlivesortoimprovethequalityoflifeforthegreatestnumberofpeople.
Globalwarming,globalcooling,greenwashing,declineoftrust(oratleastanincreaseincynicism),carbonlabelling,carbonfootprintsandcarbonoffsets
Withneuro-enhancementaroundthecornerthebrainisbecomingsexyandissettobecomethemedia’sfavouriteorganin2009.Thislinkstodevelopmentsinneuroscience,mostnotablyMRIandfMRItechnology.Italso linkswith the fact thatdigital interfacesarestarting topenetratehumanfleshandbrain implantsare being developed to treat serious diseases such as epilepsy. The starting point for this trendwill bedevelopments in technology, especially within medicine, but the impactions go beyond treating diseasetowardswhoownswhat’sinsideyourownhead.
Expecttoseearushofbooksontheinnerworkingofthehumanbrainandhowthisrelatestoeverythingfromourappreciationofmusictoworkandhumanrelationships.Onthelessserioussidetherewillbearashofproductsandservicesaimedathelpingpeopletoexercisetheirbrainandalsoabunchofpseudosciencesurroundingtheuseofbrainscanstounderstandcustomerbehaviourandrefinecommercialmessages.
Expecttoseemoreseriousmedicaldiagnosisandmonitoringproducts.Alsotheemergenceofmind-controlinterfaces(productsthatpeoplecancontroljustbythinkingaboutit).Therewillalsobeacontinuinginterestinbrain-enhancingfoods,brain-enhancingdrugsandbrain-enhancinggames,especiallyfortheover-55s.
Braintraininggames,neuroethics,neuroplasticityandcollectiveintelligence.
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Anxiety Austerity Authenticity Badoo Basic Blue Busy Change Classic Cloud
Community Compliance Connectivity Control Conviction Core Crisis Debt Deflation
Demur Earthy Eco Enough Ergomorphic Eviction Experience Family Factual Fear
Free Frugal Gardening Grateful Green Haptics Home Honest Hopeful Indebted
Inflation Infrastructure Intimacy Juncture Keepsake Local Meta Natural
OutlierOverwhelmed Pamphlet Payoff Polarisation Privacy Protectionism
Prudery Purpose Quality Reassurance Recession Recovery Redundancy
Regulation Resentment Resignation Renovation Restraint Risk Saving Security
Serious Shaken Shortage Shredding Simplicity Slow Smart Sparkle Spike
Stress Stagflation Struggling Surviving Technophobic Telepresence Thrift
Tired Traditional Trustworthy Uncertain Unfashioning Unplugged
Unwind Unwired Virtual Volatile Water White
Xenophobic Yearning Zeitgeist
.
Thepointofthistrendistopushhomethepointthatthefutureisultimatelyunknowable.Yesyoucanseegeneralpatternsandmakewell-educatedspeculationsaboutnextweekornextyearbasedpartlyonpasteventsandhumanbehaviour.But ifhistoryteachesusanything it issurelythattotallyunexpected ideas,inventionsandevents(theso-called‘BlackSwans’in2008speak)haveahabitofruininglogicalandwelllaid-outplans.Uncertaintyalsolinkswithideassurroundinganxietyandcomplexityanditisinterestingtonotethatduringpreviousperiodsofrapidchangeandupheaval,superstitionanddogmaticreligiousbeliefsbothflourished.
Anythingcanhappen.Havingsaidthisthereareclearlythingsweknow.Therearealsothingsweknowwedon’tknowandtherearethingswedon’tknowthatwedon’tknow.Trend#10isaboutthesecondgroupofunknowns(highlyimprobablebuthighlyimpactfuleventsthattendnottofollowtrendlinesorlogic-thoseBlackSwansagain).
Thistrend(OK,it’sreallymoreofanideaorobservation)isabouthowwhensomethingbigandunexpectedhappens(e.g.afinancialcrisis)weoverreactaftertheevent.Weassumethatthesamethingwillhappenagainandmakeplanstostopit.Forexample,ifterroriststakeoversomeplanesandflythemintobuildingsweassumethattheywilldoitagain,inthesamewayandpossiblyevenonthesamedate.Thebiglinkhereiswithouraversiontoriskandthe(largelyfalse)ideathatwecantotallycontrolriskorliveina100%riskfreeenvironment.
Anythingcanwork.Anythingcan’t.
Almostanything.
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Ifyoustilldoubttheexistenceofcyclesconsiderthefollowinglistwhichappropriatelyenough,includesbotheconomiccyclesandbicycles.
PeopleforgetthatabouttenyearsagoAppleComputer(theyusedthewordComputerinthosedays)wasalmostbankrupt.SteveJobsgotkickedoutofthecompanyandmostanalystsregardedthecompanyasanalsoranthatwouldeventuallyrunoutofsteam.SteveJobsthencamebackasCEO
inwhatmustsurelybeoneofthegreatestsecondactsinbusinesshistoryandAppleistransformingitselfintoaglobalconsumerelectronicscolossus.
Twentyyearsagothetheatrewassupposedtobedeadandnothingwasmoreunpopularthanmusicals.Nowyoucan’tgetaseatforMamaMia,CatsorWeWillRockYouforloveormoney.
TheEndofHistory?Hardly.Aspredictionsgo,thisone,fromFrancisFukayamaprovedtobemorethanalittleoffthemark.
Yestheyarebadforyouandwestoppedeatinganddrinkingdairyproductsforawhilebutnowwehavemuchbiggerthingstoworryaboutoverourskinnylatte.
Whenrockbandssplituptheyarenotsupposedtocomeback.Notanymore.AwaveofboomerandGenXnostalgiahasrebuiltthelostcareersofbandsasdiverseasTheEagles,LedZeppelin,TakeThat,BlurandTheSexPistols.
Thehumblepedalcycleisaclassicexampleofaconsumermarketthatmostpeoplehadwrittenoffasamarketinterminaldecline.However,someoneinCaliforniastartedtoplayaroundandsooninventedthemountainbike.Thishappenedataboutthesametime
thattheexerciseandfitnessboomtookoffinthe1980sandheyprestothemarketwasreborn.Proof,ifyouneedit,thatthereisnosuchthingasatiredanddecliningmarket–onlytiredanddecliningmarketers.
RelationsbetweentheUSandRussiathawedoutforawhilebuttheyarenowstartingtofreezeoveragain.Asfordictatorsandauthoritariangovernmentstheyneverwentaway.
ItwaswidelyassumedthatphonebankingandthenonlineandInternetbankingwouldkillphysicalbankbranches.Notso.Therearenow10%morephysicalbanksintheUSthantherewere10
yearsago.Gofigure.
No,Idon’tunderstandeither.
Foodinflation,Energyinflation,Generalinflation.Theyareallcoming.Trustme.
Mostoftheworldisslippingintorecessionbutatthesametimeinflationisrisingalmostuniversally.Stagflationwaslastseeninthe1970sandwaswidelythoughttobeadeadeconomicphenomenon.
Wellyou’rereadingthisaren’tyou?Maybephysicalmediawillbedeadinthefuturebutnotforaverylongtimeyet.
Somepeoplethoughtthatreligionwouldbedeadbynow,killedeitherbyascientifictheorythatexplainedcreationorbytheinternet,underwhichitwouldbeimpossibletohidefrominformationthatchallengedyourbeliefs.
Neitherhashappened. Indeed in timesof insecurity,complexity,andanxietyan increasingnumberofpeoplearetuningtowardsonefaithoranotherbecausetheyofferbothcertaintyandsimplicity.
MargaretThatcheroncefamouslyproclaimedthatsocietyisdead.Itisn’t.
Thepageantwasdoneawaywithbyfeministsbutwasbewilderinglyresurrectedbytelevisionexecutives.
Whatgoesaroundcomesaround,inthiscaselargelyduetobaddiet,inactivityandapinchofcomplacency.
We’reallsupposedtobetelecommutingandvideoconferencingremember?
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InAlgeria,70%oflawyersand60%ofjudgesarewomen.
MurderistheleadingcauseofdeathamongpregnantwomenintheUS.
Therearenow3.3billionmobilephoneaccountsglobally,afigureroughlyequaltohalftheworld’spopulation.
Sharkskillaround10peopleeachyear.Fallingcoconutskillapproximately150.
Itisestimatedthatfinancialservicescompaniesholdaround30%ofallofficespaceinLondon.
Thereisexpectedtobea36%increaseinthenumberofpeopleaged75+inJapanbetween2005and2015.Duringthesameperiodthenumberofpeopleagedunder5years-of-ageispredictedtodeclineby13%.
TheSelf-storageindustryinAmericahasgrownmorethan40-foldsincethe1960sandnowconsistsofoverabillionsquare-feetofempty(andnotsoempty)space.InvaluetermstheindustryisnowconsiderablylargerthantheUSmusicindustry.
AccordingtoGartner,80%ofInternetuserswillhaveavatarsordigitalreplicasofthemselvesbytheyear2011.
Approximately2,600peopledieand330,000peopleareseriouslyinjuredeveryyearintheUSduetotalkingandtextingoncell-phoneswhilstdriving.
24%ofRussiansexpecttoseeaclashwiththeUSinthenearfuturecomparedwithonly4%ofChinese.
Around80%ofallnewsavailableontheInternetoriginatesinnewspapers.
9.5millionpeoplenowhavefinancialassetsofatleastUS$1million.
TheUSDepartmentofDefenceisaimingtoreplace33%ofarmedvehicleswithrobotsbytheyear2015.
Almost10%ofBritishhomesnolongerhavealandlinetelephone.
14,000newcarstaketotheroadinChinaeverysingleday.
SalesofCDmusictitlessoldinpaperjackets(i.e.reminiscentofvinylrecords)roseby100%inJapanin2005.
90%ofallscientistsandengineerswithPhDswillliveinAsiaby2010.
Ofthe120,000blogscreateddaily,50%areaboutthesamesubject-thewriter.
Bytheyear2015,WestAfricawillbecometheworld’slargestsourceofcrudeoiloutsideoftheMiddleEast.
AreportbytheKaiserFamilyFoundationsaysthat53%ofUSstudents(grades7-12)consumedanotherformofmediawhilst‘watching’television.
ThefineforpossessingahamsterinVietnamisUS$1,900.
1%ofalladultsintheUSareinjail.
FamiliesintheUKspendGB£14,800peryearonhouseholdbills.Fiveyearsagothefigurewas£8,000.
Therearenowmorepensionersaged>sixty(11.2million)thanchildrenaged<sixteen(11.1million)intheUK.
Petsoutnumberpeople1.5:1inAustralia
ThelatestJustinTimberlakeAlbumisavailablein115formats.
Therewasa400%riseinChinesepatentapplicationsbetween1995and2005.
Thenumberofbreast-augmentationsurgeriesperformedonfemaleteensroseby55%intheUSbetween2006and2007.
50%ofNewYorkUniversitystudentssaidtheywould“permanentlyforfeit”therighttovoteinexchangeforaone-offpaymentofUS$1million.
Between1991and2005deathsdirectlyrelatedtoalcoholnearlydoubledintheUK.
80%ofUKwealthisheldbypeopleaged55+
Around100millionpeoplearethoughttohavediedprematurelyduringthe20thCenturyduetocigarettesmoking.
In2005,40%ofUKweddingsinvolvedsomeonethatwasgettingmarriedforatleastthesecondtime.
2.9millionroomshavebeen‘lost’inBritishhomessince2003duetoopen-planhomeconversions.
Consumerspendingbythoseaged65-74intheUKispredictedtoincreaseby40%by2017.
In2003,theminimumwageintheUKwas£4.20perhour.IntheUSitwas$5.15.InChinaitwas18pence(29cents)anditIndiaitwas7pence(11cents).
74%ofBritonsthinkthat‘greentaxes’areacon.
Thenumberofnon-foodantibacterialproductslaunchedgloballygrewfromlessthan200in2003to1,610in2006accordingtoMintel’sNewProductsDatabase.
US$750billionisnowmanagedgloballyunderIslamicorShariaprinciples.
In2020thedominantfamilytypeinAustraliawillbecoupleswithoutchildren.
Smokingkills25%ofallmeninthedevelopingworld.
Salesofthefivemajorpainkillingmedicinesgrewby88%intheUSbetween1997-2005.
Chinahas21%oftheworld’spopulationbutonly1.8%oftheworld’soilsupply.
Ford’s2007carfleetaveraged18.7mpg.A1908FordModelTcouldreach25mpg.
TheUK’sDNADatabasecontainsinformationon40%ofblackmeninBritain.
AccordingtotheGeneralSocialSurvey(US)therehasbeena300%increaseinthenumberofAmericansthathaveabsolutelynobodytotalktoabouttheirproblems.
50%ofmenintheUKsaythattheywouldgiveupsexforsixmonthsinreturnfora50-inchplasmatelevision.However,only17%wouldgiveuptheinternetinexchangeforthetelevision.
40%oftheworld’s923,000industrialrobotsresideinJapan.
Between1980-2000membershipofpoliticalpartiesintheWestfellbyalmost50%
ItispredictedthattheretailspacedevotedtorecordedmusicintheUSwillhavefallenby30%during2008.
90%ofmenthathavewalkedonthemoonwereonceBoyScouts.
85%ofprimaryschoolteachersintheUKarefemaleand39%ofboysaged8-11havenomaleteacherswhatsoever.
Fewerthan5%ofAmericanstakepublictransporttowork.
In1970,80%ofBritishchildrenwalkedtoschool.By2007thefigurehadfallento9%.
86%oftheworld’spopulationwillliveinemergingmarketsbytheyear2050
In2007,only6%ofAmericanmenworeatietoworkeveryday.In2002thefigurewas10%.
Oilmajorscontrollessthan10percentofworldresourcesofgasandoil,against70percentinthe1970s.
Thereare26millionbusinessesintheUSand20millionofthesehavenoemployees.
35%ofUSsmall-businessownersaredyslexics.
In1992girlsaged14drank3.8units(roughly2/3ofabottle)ofwineaweek.By2004thefigurehadrisento9.7unitsperweek.
Britonsspend20%oftheirannualincomeonleisure,upfrom9%in1957
TomakeacottonT-Shirtrequires27,000litresofwater
42%oftheworld’spopulationnowlivesunderdouble-digitinflation.
Therewere8,987newcasesofMRSAintheUSin2005,resultingin1,598deaths.Thetotalnumberofdeathssince2005standsat18,650,whichcomparesto17,011deathsfromAIDS.
Cementproductionaccountsfor5%ofglobalcarbondioxideemissions.
81,000peoplediedonChineseroadsduring2007
14%ofAmericandogssufferfromseparationanxiety.
AccordingtotheUniversityofEastAnglia(UK)thechanceoffindingintelligentlifeonanotherplanetoverthenext4billionyearsis0.01%
Morethan85%oftheinformationheldbyorganizationsisunstructured.
Accordingtoa2007UNICEFstudy,theUKisrankedlastof27surveyedcountrieswhenitcomestochildwellbeing.
InChinathereare228millionInternetuserscomparedto217millionintheUS.
55%ofwomeninAmericadietheirhair.
12.6%ofUSresidents(37.6millionpeople)areillegalimmigrants.
31%ofpeoplelivinginLondonwerebornoutsideoftheUK.
62%ofpeoplelivinginBritainaged18-24saytheybelieveinhoroscopesversus38%whosaytheybelieveintheBible.
10%ofAmericansbelievethattheInternetbringsthemclosertoGodversus6%thatsayitmakesthemfeelmoredistant.
TheaveragecosttocreateacancerdrugisUS$1.04billion.TheFDAsapprovalrateforcancerdrugsbetween1990-2007was8%.
2.5millionUSchildrenareonprescribedantipsychoticdrugs.
In2004,therichest1%oftheAmericanpopulationtookhomeUS$1.35trillioninpay.Thisismorethanthetotalnationaltake-homepayinCanada,ItalyorFrance.
52%ofKoreaninfantsaged3-5regularlyusetheInternet,spendingonaverage4hourseveryweekonline.
77billioncorporateemailsaresenteveryworkingday.By2012thenumberisexpectedtobearound150billion.
5%ofSovietofficialsunderPresidentGorbachevhad
securityservicebackgrounds.UnderPutinthefigurewas78%.
70%ofpeopleintheUKhavenotieswhatsoevertoanylocalgrouporassociation.
Therewere411,000bookspublishedintheUSin2007
Over50%ofHarvard
24 www.nowandnext.com www.nowandnext.com
Howarethetrendpredictionsfrompreviousissuesofthispublicationdoing?Lookingbackitseemstheyarestandingupquitewell.Forexample,HappinesswasidentifiedasanissuebackinJanuary2006.Rememberthoughthatmajortrendsdon’tchangeveryfast,somostofthesehistoricaltrendsarestillveryactivetoday.Inotherwords,don’tignorethesetrendssimplybecausetheyareold.
1. Rhythm&balance 2. Karmacapitalism 3. Makingthings 4. Somethingfornothing 5. Industrialprovenance 6. Robotics 7. Datavisualisation 8. Realitymining 9. Eco-exhaustion 10. Fantasy&escape
1. Simplicity 2. Myway 3. Selfreliance 4. Carbon 5. Water 6. Open 7. Privateequity 8. Lowcost 9. Luxury 10. Meaning
1. Anxiety 2. Connectedness 3. Speeding-up 4. Mobility 5. Convergence 6. Privacy 7. Nostalgia 8. Localisation 9. Authenticity 10. Happiness
2007+2007+10 Trends: Predictions & Provocations
2007+2007+10 Trends: Predictions & Provocations
2007+2007+10 Trends: Predictions & Provocations