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Page 1: GCOS and IPCC Future directions of IPCC and

GCOS and IPCC

Future directions of IPCC and how GCOS can support climate science and assessment

Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC

Geneva, 14 October 2008

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Observations of physical climate

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Observations - Some key uncertainties

• Total and low level cloud change over oceans• Quantifying trends in precipitation• Soil moisture and streamflow• Extreme events • In situ snow data • Thickness of Arctic ice • Glacier mass loss • Mass balance of ice sheets and ice sheet flow• Trends in the MOC

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It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and

biological systems

Observed changes in physical and biological systems since 1970

Marked scarcity of observational data in developing countries IPCC

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Observed impacts - research needs

Improved observation networks • to enhance research capability on changes in

physical, biological and socio-economic systems, particularly in regions with sparse data;

• to improve functional understanding of the responses of natural and managed systems to climate change.

• Documented evidence on adaptation to regional climate trends just emerging

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Post-AR4: Closing the loop between mitigation and impacts(Parry, et al., Nature Reviews Climate Change, 2008)

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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

1. Further guidance by IPCC-30 – March/April 2009

2. Scoping meeting(s) – 2009

3. Approval of outline by IPCC-31 – end 2009/early 2010

4. Finalization of WG I Report – early 2013

5. Finalization of Reports by Working Groups II and III – 2014

6. Finalization of the Synthesis report – 2014• Start planning for SYR earlier in the process

Timetable determined by work on new scenarios carried out by scientific community to enable significant use of the

new scenarios in developing the AR5

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The new IPCC Bureau and TFBElected on 4 September for AR5 Period

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New scenarios development process – parallel vs. sequential approach

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New scenarios development process –interactions for scenario development

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Product PhaseTime to Produce Short Description

Product 1: Representative Concentration

Pathways (RCPs)

Prep. Phase12

months

Four RCPs will be produced and include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover (see Table A1.1). Extension of RCPs to 2300 a research issue.

Product 2: Climate Model Ensembles and Pattern Scaling

Parallel Phase

<24 months

The long-term scenarios are expected to be run at approximately 2° resolution, while the near-term scenarios may have higher (0.5° to 1°) resolution. Pattern scaling a research challenge.

Product 3: New IAM Scenarios

Parallel Phase

24 months

New socio-economic and emissions scenarios developed by the IAM community (with the IAV community).

Product 4: Global Narrative Storylines

Parallel Phase

24 months

Detailed descriptions of assumptions associated with the four RCPs and new scenarios to encourage coordination across finer scale work at regional scale. This remains a key research issue.

Product 5: Integrated Scenarios

Integration Phase

18 months

Synthesis of IAM, CM, and IAV work, including incorporation of feedbacks. Also still recognized as a research challenge.

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New scenarios development process and indicative AR5 timeline

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    AR5 Scoping            

                WG I    

                  WG II  

                  WG III  

                          SYR

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AR5 scope – some key questions

• Future changes in climate, impacts and socio economic conditions based on new scenarios • Economics of vulnerability and adaptation• Development of a regional approach in complement to

the global approach, particularly in assessing the impacts and vulnerability• Coordinated treatment of adaptation and mitigation

within an integrated sustainable development strategy • Regional knowledge on adaptation and mitigation

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Specific suggestions for Special Reports or AR5 Focus

• Abrupt changes in the climate system• Synergy with other environmental conventions and SD • Adaptation, including an assessment of current

practice • Specific regional or sub-regional IAV assessments

including coastal areas, deltas and SIDS • Effectiveness of mitigation measures, including

emissions trading • Sectoral assessments addressing technology,

renewable energy and energy efficiency; lifestyle and consumption patters, forests and deforestation; water; health; transport

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Other planned or potential IPCC outputs

Special Report on Renewable Energy sources

• LA selection ongoing, first LA meeting January 2009, • Report to be finalized end of 2010

?? Special Report on Special Report on managing risks of extreme events to advance climate change adaptation

• Scoping meeting to be held early 2009• IPCC-30 will decide on SR or integration in AR5

?? Methodology work on alternative common metrics to calculate the CO2 equivalence of anthropogenic emissions

• Expert meeting planned to advise on next steps

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IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis

TGICA • facilitates wide availability of climate change related data and scenarios

relevant to impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation research,

• Manages the Data Distribution Center (DDC) • and contributes to building capacity in the use of data and

scenarios for climate related research

DDC provides • data sets (climatological baselines, observations, other

environmental, technological, and socio-economic factors) • climate and other scenarios • other materials (e.g., technical guidelines on use of scenarios)

Next Meeting of TGICA 19-21 Nov 2008 in Geneva

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