The Future of MediaGeoffrey RamseyCEO, Co-Founder
The Future of MediaGeoffrey RamseyCEO, Co-Founder
Key Measurementsfor Campaigns:•Hits•Click-throughs
Jupiter Conference,circa 1999
“90% of what we say today will be wrong tomorrow.”
--Rishad Tobaccowala, Denuo
“48.62% of what we say today will be wrong tomorrow.”
$13 trillion lost in American wealth
Glass half full, or half empty???
Glass half full, or half empty???
Media SpendingTrends???“The only function of economic forecasting…”
--John Kenneth Galbraith
“The real world won’t change for the better until 2010… when greed has overcome fear yet again.”
--Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP
Date 2009 2010
Barclays Capital June 2009 -13.5% -0.3%
Carat Insight Oct. 2009 -16.3% -2.6%
Citi Investment Jan. 2009 -7.0% 5.0%
Cowen & Co. Jan. 2009 -14.0% 1.0%
eMarketer Oct. 2009 -14.6% -0.5%
MAGNA July 2009 -15.5% -0.4%
Myers Publishing March 2009 -13.3% -4.8%
Morgan Stanley Oct. 2009 -15.4% 4.2%
Oppenheimer & Co. Feb. 2009 -9.9% 4.2%
UBS Feb. 2009 -12.3% 3.1%
ZenithOptimedia July 2009 -10.6% -4.4%
Media Spending Growth in the U.S.
-14.6%Aug 2009 Study of 128 Marketers:
77% said they were cutting ad media spending
Aug 2009 Study of 128 Marketers:
77% said they were cutting ad media spending
75% of US ad and media professionalsexpect to shift more than a quarter of
their ad budgets away from traditional outlets over the next 5 years. (Jan ’09)
75% of US ad and media professionalsexpect to shift more than a quarter of
their ad budgets away from traditional outlets over the next 5 years. (Jan ’09)
TELEVISION: BMO Capital…... -8.1%TNS (1st Half)….. -10.0%VSS…………….. -10.1%Jack Myers…….. -10.4%UBS…………….. -11.1%Barclays………... -13.7%Oppenheimer….. -13.8%MAGNA………… -14.4%
TELEVISION: BMO Capital…... -8.1%TNS (1st Half)….. -10.0%VSS…………….. -10.1%Jack Myers…….. -10.4%UBS…………….. -11.1%Barclays………... -13.7%Oppenheimer….. -13.8%MAGNA………… -14.4%
Traditional Media Growth (?) in 2009RADIO: VSS……….….... -11.7%Wachovia……… -13.0%Zenith………….. -14.4%Barclays……….. -15.1%Oppenheimer…. -16.0%eMarketer……. -17.2%Jack Myers……. -18.4%MAGNA……….. -21.0%
RADIO: VSS……….….... -11.7%Wachovia……… -13.0%Zenith………….. -14.4%Barclays……….. -15.1%Oppenheimer…. -16.0%eMarketer……. -17.2%Jack Myers……. -18.4%MAGNA……….. -21.0%
NEWSPAPERS: Zenith………… -15.0%eMarketer……. -15.8%UBS…............... -17.6%Oppenheimer… -18.3%VSS…………… -18.7%Barclay’s……… -21.0%Jack Myers…… -22.5%MAGNA………. -29.5%
NEWSPAPERS: Zenith………… -15.0%eMarketer……. -15.8%UBS…............... -17.6%Oppenheimer… -18.3%VSS…………… -18.7%Barclay’s……… -21.0%Jack Myers…… -22.5%MAGNA………. -29.5%
Are we inin a cycle???
US online ad spending growth for 2009
9.2%
7.4%
5.0%
4.3%
4.0%
2.3%
6.2%
VSS (Jul '09)
Zenith (Apr '09)
SNL Kagan (May '09)
Collins Stewart (May '09)
Citi (Jan '09)
GroupM (Sep '09)
Barclays (Mar '09)
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2009Cowen (May ’09) -6.0% -5.0%UBS (Feb ’09)
eMarketer (Oct ’09) -2.9%
-3.7%Morgan (Oct ’09)
???
Search...... +4.0%Banners…. -0.5%
Search...... +4.0%Banners…. -0.5%
+5.9% growth in 2010
+6.6% growth in 2011
--eMarketer
55% of global marketing execsplan to cut spending on traditionalmedia in order to fund increased
online efforts (June 2008) 59% of U.S. marketers plan to increasebudget for interactive by pulling fundsout of traditional media (March 2009)
70% shifting media funds from traditional to digital media (June 2009)
70% shifting media funds from traditional to digital media (June 2009)
By 2012, online will reach $29 billion, or 17% of total media spending--eMarketer
$30.42
$28.44
$28.9
$28.6
$62.4$51.1
$38.2$31.8
$29.4
$27.9
Kelsey Group
IDC
ThinkPanmure
Bernstein Research
Thomas Weisel
Barclays
MAGNA
eMarketer
Cowen & Co.
Yankee Group
Myers
US online ad spending in 2012
$28.8
???
Mathematician John Von Neumann:
“There’s no sense in being precise when you don’t even know what you’re talking about.”
50%
50%“We’re heading into a
50-50 world, where half of spending goes to digital
and interactive campaigns”
--Laura Desmond, Starcom MediaVest
“Over time, all ad money will go through a digital platform.”
--Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft
“In the long run, we’re all dead.”
--John Maynard Keynes, economist
7 Implications for the Future of Media
Rishad of Denuo:
“If parts of the company need to be blown up, you might as well get the bomb thrower to come from somewhere you know and trust.”
#1. Even post-recession, total media dollars will continue to shrink…
Opposing forces
Opposing forces
• Accountability mandate will strengthen demand for lower cost, more efficient media
• Media fragmentation will force marketers to target their messages to ever smaller, niche audiences
• Digital technology creates new opportunities for self-marketing, e.g., via Web sites, online videos, Twitter, etc.
• Inevitable shift towards “earned media”, as opposed to “paid media”
#2. Media will not only implode, it will also explode, becoming more:
• Distributed – same content available in multiple locations, formats and media channels
• Personalized – media will be tailored to reflect what you’ve watched/read/experienced/shared
• Contextualized – when and where you get your information will dictate its content and format, and will, in turn, shape how you interact with and share it
#3. Proportionately, advertising will carry less and less of the load for media content
Explosion of MediaExplosion of Media
AdvertisingPay for
content
“Advertising simply cannot support all the media that out’s there.”
--Wenda Millard Harris, (while at MSL)
“Advertising simply cannot support all the media that out’s there.”
--Wenda Millard Harris, (while at MSL)
“People reading news for free on the Web, that’s got to change.”
--Rupert Murdoch
“People reading news for free on the Web, that’s got to change.”
--Rupert Murdoch
“We’re in a transition of what will be a proliferation of models, many of which will include getting more compensation from readers and
users.”
--Thomas Curley, CEO, Associated Press
All media owners need to ask the
VALUE question...
…what can we createthat people will be
willing to pay for???
FREEAd-supported
FREEAd-supported
Social media moms
Rishadof Denuo:
“We are hungry for information and value those who do a superior job of editing the ocean of material there is.”
“We are hungry for information and value those who do a superior job of editing the ocean of material there is.”
“We have a massive lost of trust.”
“We have a massive lost of trust.”
#4. Brands willstruggle to
engender trust
In 2007, only 17% said they trusted advertisersBy late 2008, only
10% rated advertising
practitioners as honest
Word Association –Describe Advertising:
Source: Nielsen Online, 2008
“FALSE”
Consumer TRUST Levels for Media Types
-- Nielsen Online global survey, April 2009 --
0%
Opt-in email 55%
Magazine ads 62%
Editorial content 70%
100%
Recos from peopleI know 92%
Ads before movies 53%
Mobile text ads 18%
Search ads 37%
TV & Radio ads 61%
Banner ads 24%Brand sites 69%
Source: Nielsen Online, April, 2009; n = 25,000
Newspaper ads 66%
8%?
NewNeurosis:Why 8% ofAmericans Don’t TrustTheir Familyand Friends
Keller Fay Group:Consumers consider word-of-mouth as 2X as trustworthy as traditional media when choosing products
How can you create trust for your brand?
• Figure out ways to earn and leverage the trust of communities that are relevant to your product or brand
• Make your product and customer service as good as they can be (no more hiding!)
• Emphasize listening over loud-speaking
“I view listening as an important analytic. Listening and other analytics can drive your strategy at a macro-level... They can either reinforce your strategy or correct it.”
--Michael Mendenhall, CMO, Hewlett-Packard
“I view listening as an important analytic. Listening and other analytics can drive your strategy at a macro-level... They can either reinforce your strategy or correct it.”
--Michael Mendenhall, CMO, Hewlett-Packard
Only 16% of U.S. marketing chiefs say their firms regularly
monitor social forums
Only 16% of U.S. marketing chiefs say their firms regularly
monitor social forums
…be transparent
Transparency = Trust
“What about social
media?”
“What about social
media?”
#5. Social sites will never attract a large share of ad dollars
17%of Internet Time
--Nielsen, 2009
$$$$
today?
“1 billion
dollars”
“1 billion
dollars”
Social “ad” spending will
actually decline 3% this year
% of Marketers Planning to Boost Spending on Social Media in ‘09:
Unisfair (Sept ’09)…………… 75%Reardon Smith (Jun ‘09)……. 69%Millward Brown (Apr ’09)……. 64%StrongMail (July ’09)………… 58%Forrester (2009)……………… 57%MarketingSherpa (Nov ’08)….. 48%Datran Media* (Jan ’09)…….. 44%ANA (May 2009)………………. 26%
*Worldwide
Forrester: While only 41% of marketers are placing ads on
social networks, 64% say they’re building their own social
media presence
Forrester: While only 41% of marketers are placing ads on
social networks, 64% say they’re building their own social
media presenceBy 2011, ad spending will still be under $1.5 billion (eMarketer)
Think less about buying social media, and more about how you can earn
and own it!
Think less about buying social media, and more about how you can earn
and own it!
Size of Audience
Depth of Brand Interaction
WidgetsVideoSites
Heavy Engagement
#6. Marketers will trade off reachto get a deeper engagement
Apps NicheSocial Sites“[In the future, online media buying will be] about the re-aggregation of a fragmented audience that’s actually watching different things.”
--Adam Gerber, Quantcast
Chaos Theory
BreakoutSessions
Today’s Panels:• Digital re-aggregration of media dust
• Digital is making the media universe fly apart at an accelerated rate
Rishad
Peter
John
Bob
#7. The classic interruption/disruptionmodel of advertising will continue to erode…
We interrupt
this program
to sell you stuff
We interrupt this
programming to sell
you stuff!
“The way the world is headed is voluntary engagement. The work has to be a magnet.”
--David Lubars, Chairman, BBDO North America
“The way the world is headed is voluntary engagement. The work has to be a magnet.”
--David Lubars, Chairman, BBDO North America
Downloaded
400,000 times
“Ads placed in front of searchers aren’t interruptions – they’re exactly what the searchers are after.”
–Danny Sullivan, Search Guru at Large
Marketers will need to think less about grabbing attention, and more about capturing and measuring:
• Intentions… serving messages based on the assumed intentions of each consumer.
• Mentions… the things people say about your brand is more important than what you say.
• Imaginations… your communications must be entertaining, useful, relevant and compelling enough to demand inherent interest…
“The challenge is to build technological capabilities that allow you to see the complete digital footprint a customer leaves when they engage with your brand.”
“You’ll need advanced analytical tools so you can map ad strategies to audience behavior and deliver a range of appropriate campaign messages, in real time, to multiple devices, in multiple formats.”
--Karin von Abrams, eMarketer analyst
IT’S TOUGHOUT THERE.
You have 3 choices...
The Skill
The Till
The Will
73% of marketers plan to increase marketing spending 3 – 6 months before the recession ends (to make sure their brands are top of mind when spending resumes)
Final Stats:Final Stats:
23 minutes23 minutes
29 slides29 slides
1,396 builds1,396 builds
55,000 charts55,000 charts
Final Stats:Final Stats:
23 minutes23 minutes
29 slides29 slides
1,396 builds1,396 builds
55,000 charts55,000 charts= 0.0007% of info= 0.0007% of info= 0.0007% of info= 0.0007% of info
To get the expanded version of this
presentation, please contact me at:
[email protected]: @geofframsey
