Sreeja NairThe Energy and Resources
Institute
Evolution of approaches towards evaluation of adaptive responses
The Evaluation Conclave, 25 October 2010. Evaluating Adaptive Responses to Climate Change workshop
Complex Adaptive Systems Evolution of evaluation of adaptive
responses in Social-Ecological Systems. Adaptive policymaking under
uncertaintySummary
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Overview
Social-Ecological Systems (SES), are complex adaptive systems experiencing multiple cross-scale interactions ( Cash et al. 1996) (‘complex’) and with time, adjusting to conditions of stress such as climate change (‘adaptive’) (Hughes et al 1997)
SES do not rapidly change their form owing to several self-reinforcing mechanisms that try to maintain the original structure and function (Walker et al 2002).
Under stress, SES assimilate the new conditions while trying to maintain their earlier critical processes, attempt to self-organize while learning and adjusting to the new conditions (Carpenter and Brock 2008).
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Being ‘complex’ and ‘adaptive’
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Responding to Structured and unstructured problems
Hisschemoller and Hoppe,1989
Unstructured problems are characterized by uncertainty and difference in perception about the problem, its cause and solution; boundaries of the problem are nebulous.
YesNo
Yes
No
Certainty about knowledge
Agreement on perception about the problem
Unstructured problem
Moderately structured problem
Moderately structured problem
Structured problem
Understanding Uncertainty
• Adaptive responses may be elicited across a continuum of uncertainty: moving from
Determinism, TO Complete ignorance
Walker et al 2010
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Evolution of empirical and theoretical approaches
Single stress e.g. climate change
Climate variability and change
Multiple stresses
Scen
ari
o-
based
m
od
ellin
g
Ind
icato
r-
based
ap
pro
ach
es
Com
mu
nit y
in
tera
cti
on
Source: TERI
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Adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and fertility
Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure
Globalizationvulnerability
Climate changevulnerability
Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)
Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)
Example: Macro and micro assessments Impacts of climate change and globalization on Indian agriculture
Source: TERI, 2003
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Regions with highest climate sensitivity and exposure are
not necessarily the most
vulnerable
Assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture to ‘double exposure’ (climate change and globalization)- a case study (Source: TERI, 2003)
Vulnerability profiles
Drought prone and flood prone basins selected to understand differential vulnerability and adaptation options
Village selection: Irrigation & Infrastructure indexHousehold-level surveys; Unit of analyses- land
holding sizeIncome Impact Index: Identification of significant
variables that enable households to ‘maintain’ income levels between a normal and stress year
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Example : Basin-level assessment
Source: TERI – World Bank study, 2008
Weights and scores for biophysical, social and technological vulnerability
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A State Vulnerability Index
Bid
Pune
Nashik
Dhule
Solapur
Akola
Satara
Gadchirol
Yavatmal
Jalgaon
Ahmadnagar
Thane
Amravati
Jalna
Latur
Sangli
Nagpur
Nanded
Parbhani
Buldana
Chandrapu
Bhandara
Aurangabad
Ratnagiri
Kolhapur
Raigarh
Wardha
Osmanabad
Sindhudur
Vulnerable Zones 2001
Maharastra
Gross cropped area in Ha. (1991)137400 - 271327
271328 - 578000
578001 - 856200
856201 - 1068700
1068701 - 1398300
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Godavari river basin
Extremely High
No data
BID
PUNE
NASHIK
SOLAPUR
THANE
SATARA
YAVATMAL
JALGAON
NANDED
JALNAAHMADNAGAR
AMRAVATI
NAGPUR
GADCHIROLI
SANGLI
DHULE
BULDANA
LATUR
CHANDRAPUR
AKOLA
RATNAGIRI
AURANGABAD
RAIGARH
KOLHAPUR
WARDHA
PARBHANI
WASHIM
OSMANABAD
HINGOLI
GONDIYA
NANDURBAR
BHANDARA
SINDHUDURG
MUMBAI (SUBURB)MUMBAI
Vulnerable Zones 2001
Maharastra
Gross cropped area in Ha. (2001)181500 - 328200
328201 - 486100
486101 - 591900
591901 - 837400
837401 - 1327500
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Godavari river basin
Extremely High
No data
Source: TERI – World Bank study, 2008
Evaluating responses within the Development: Adaptation ContinuumAdaptation needs often appear to being largely defined from a developmental perspective and mostly with reference to baseline vulnerabilities
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Example: Climate risk screening
Climate risk assessment as a tool/approach for reducing climatic risks to developmental objectives and integrating adaptation options within developmental programmes at the national and sub-national levels
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The ORCHID process Sensitisation and awareness-
raising
Initial Portfolio Screening
Strategic Overview
Climate change and disasters
profile
Adaptation options integratedRisk screening of future
programming
Multi criteria analysis of
options
Cost benefit analysis
Climate change and disasters assessment
Adaptation / Risk reduction
options
1. Climate science
2. Vulnerability
3. Economic impacts
Selects high risk projects
Risk assessment and adaptation optionsCost benefit analysis
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Criteria for climate risk screening: comparison of scenariosNo programme scenario: without interventionsProgramme scenario: partial risk reduction due
to programme implementationProgramme plus scenario: risk reduction with
additional components added within the present programme portfolio
Climate-risk screening of projects
Source: Tanner et al, 2007
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State level programme: Urban Services for the Poor
Identified climate risks
Climate Risk management and adaptationCurrent practices Additional opportunitiesKUSP MPUSP
Urban flooding In- situ slum upgradation Strengthening O and M Comprehensive urban planning
considering climatic risks Health risks due to contamination of water supplies
O and M of existing water supplies and drainage systems
Enabling ULBs to develop and follow environmental standards for sanitation and drinking water
Development of a spatial and temporal database for water quality surveillance
Raising plinth level of toilets Better insulation of toilet pits to
reduce seepage into the soil and groundwater
Source: Tanner et al, 2007
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Example: Trans-disciplinary assessmentsHighNoon : adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat & changing monsoon pattern
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Example: HighNoon adaptation assessment framework
www.eu-highnoon.org
Policies can promote continuous learning and adapt in response to experience over time (Dewey 1927)
Holling 1978: Adaptive policies and responses in SESAdaptive policies are ‘designed to test clearly
formulated hypotheses about the behaviour of an ecosystem being changed by human use’ (Lee 1993)
Most policies involve Complex Adaptive Systems hence conventional approaches based on single-model projections and optimization will produce static policies catered towards only the best estimate (Bankes 2002).
Adaptive policies -‘not only optimal for a best estimate future but robust across a range of plausible futures’ (Walker and Marchau 2003).
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Evolution of adaptive policy concepts
Swanson and Bhadwal, Creating Adaptive Policies: IISD-IDRC-TERI 2009
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Adaptive PolicyAbility of policy to
adapt to anticipated conditions
(based on a good understanding of cause
and effect)
(based on a good understanding of system
dynamics and complexity)
Ability of policy toadapt to unanticipated
conditions
Adaptive policies are ‘designed to function more effectively under complex, dynamic and uncertain conditions’.
Swanson and Bhadwal, Creating Adaptive Policies: IISD-IDRC-TERI 200920
Integrated and Forward-looking
Analysis
By identifying key factors that affect policy performance and identifying scenarios for how these factors might evolve in the future, policies can be made robust to a range of anticipated conditions, and indicators developed to help trigger important policy adjustments when needed.
The Policy Wind Tunnel
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Ranking Importance and Uncertainty
Import
ance
Uncertaintylow
high
high
CriticalUncertainties
‘inevitables’
Key factors
Multi-stakeholder Deliberation
Expands ability of policy to incorporate a range of anticipated conditions.
By providing access to different perspectives, different sources of knowledge, and different ways of knowing in order to consider new information and new views of the problem.
Rapid adjustment and response to unanticipated conditions.
By building the social cohesion, shared vision and capacity for collective action
Decentralization of Decision-making
Decentralizing the authority and responsibility for decision-making to the lowest effective and accountable unit of governance, whether existing or newly created, can increase the capacity of a policy to perform successfully when confronted with unforeseen events.
Built-in Policy Adjustment
Some of the inherent variability in socio-economic and ecological conditions can be anticipated, and monitoring of key indicators can help trigger important policy adjustments to keep the policy functioning well.
Formal Review and Continuous Learning
Regular review, even when the policy is performing well, and the use of well-designed pilots throughout the life of the policy to test assumptions related to performance, can help address emerging issues and trigger important policy adjustments.
1. Pre-defined time interval, e.g., once in a year
2. Monitoring of system performance indicators relating to intended (and unintended) policy outcomes
3. Stakeholder feedback
4. Availability of critical new information
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Triggers for a Review
Promoting Variation
Given the complexity of most policy settings, implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes. Diversity of responses also forms a common risk-management approach, facilitating the ability to perform efficiently in the face of unanticipated conditions.
• As an architect: designing and implementing a variety of policy options
• As a facilitator: creating an enabling environment for variation
• As a learner: studying from the past and current and adapting in the process
Promoting variation: Multiple roles of a policymaker
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Enabling Self-organization and Social
Networking
The capacity of individuals and groups to self-organize around problems and stresses affects the ability of communities to adapt to changing conditions. Ensuring that policies do not undermine existing social capital; creating forums that enable social networking; facilitating the sharing of good practices; and removing barriers to self-organization, strengthen the ability of stakeholders to respond to unanticipated events in a variety of innovative ways.
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Assessments have evolved from considering single stresses to existence of multiple stresses in the real world
Need to bring in adaptive thinking into empirical and theoretical approaches for evaluation in an increasingly complex, uncertain and dynamic world.
Need to capture heterogeneity of responding systems, innovation and feedback into assessment approaches.
Need to evaluate adaptive responses with respect to the ‘changing baseline’
Adaptive decision-making approaches can enable evaluation of adaptive responses under uncertainty.
Summary
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