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Gleanings Published by Raymond James & Associates

© 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved.

International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863

Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, [email protected]

Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., (727) 567-2603, [email protected]

Andrew Adams, CMT, (727) 567-4807, [email protected]

August 23, 2016

Gleanings

A Monthly Chart Presentation and Discussion Pulling Together the Disciplines of Economics, Fundamentals, Technical Analysis, and Quantitative Analysis

“It’s All About Earnings” Warren Buffett has said, “In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” In business school they teach you that over the long cycle, stock prices are a function of two metrics: 1) corporate earnings, and 2) the price/earnings (P/E) multiple investors are willing to pay for those earnings. Total stock returns are a combination of the stock price (1 + 2) and (3) the dividends investors receive over time. We revisit this business school mantra because it is our belief the equity markets are transitioning from an interest rate-driven bull market to an earnings-driven market.

There are two kinds of bull markets, an interest rate-driven one where interest rates decline and P/E multiples expand; and an earnings-driven bull market where interest rates rise, P/E multiples contract, and earnings grow. As our friend Rich Bernstein (RBA Advisors) writes:

It is virtually a mathematical tautology that valuation multiples increase when longer-term interest rates fall because of present value theory. As interest rates fall, investors are more willing to expand the time horizon of their investments (i.e., P/E multiples expand) because there are fewer shorter-duration investments that offer competitive returns. Portfolio construction during periods of falling interest rates typically focuses on making sure that P/E multiples expand by “P” going up rather than by “E” going down. Conversely, portfolio construction during an earnings-driven market needs to focus on P/E contraction, ensuring that multiples contract by “E” going up rather than by “P” going down. Cyclicals tend to out-perform stable growth during earnings-driven markets because cyclical companies’ incremental earnings growth more than offsets the negative effect of rising rates. Stable growth companies, by definition, are stable and have little or no incremental growth. Stable companies’ P/Es usually contract by “P” going down because “E” is stable.

This “stable companies” comment is not unimportant for as we have written, “Another one of the other more ubiquitous questions we are fielding is regarding low volatility investments, or what I have termed ‘chicken longs.’ To me, Kimberly Clark trading at a P/E multiple of 24x is expensive given that Intel trades at 16x earnings. Speaking to low-vol Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), our friends at JP Morgan Asset Management have done a lot of work on the subject and concluded, “This style is now up ~74% relative to the market since the beginning of this cycle in 2009, pushing its valuation to reach a new record high. Additionally, Low Volatility has become even more correlated to Momentum, a vulnerable trade that has become increasingly crowded. This suggests Low Volatility may be in a bubble and subject to negative tail risk. The high valuation multiples for Low Volatility are becoming unjustified based on fundamentals.”

Text continues on page 3.

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Raymond James Gleanings


International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 2

Contents

Market Review with Jeffrey Saut ................................................ 3

Economic & Market Update ..................................................... 12

Stock Trends/Quantitative Analysis with Andrew Adams ......... 13

Economic Review with Scott Brown ......................................... 19

Important Disclosures .............................................................. 40




Jeffrey Saut

“It’s All About Earnings” Continued from page 1.

Earnings growth for the S&P 500 has been negative since late 2014, which is why many pundits suggest stocks are overvalued.

However, we think the worm is turning with the most recent quarter’s earnings reports. As we surmised, earnings have come in

better than the lowered bar expectations. Moreover, in the next few quarters, earnings comparisons should look great given last

year’s lousy reports. This is how earnings-driven bull markets evolve. Also of note, recently year-over-year growth in sales has

“flipped” for the first time since 2Q14.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX/2182.64) has broken out to new all-time highs as we suspected, yet very few trust said breakout. In

our recent visits with Alex.Brown financial advisors, as well as portfolio managers, everyone is pretty cautious, except in our meeting

with Bill Miller. As often stated, however, “Nobody can consistently ‘time’ the various markets, yet if one ‘listens’ to the message of

the markets you can certainly decide if you want to be playing hard, or not so hard.” We have been playing pretty hard since our

model targeted the mid-February lows. So, one more time, here’s the trifecta setup:

1) In all the previous times when the S&P 500 has made a new all-time high, following at least 52 weeks below the old high water

mark, the average return over the next 12 months has been 12.28% (median +12.30%) with an average pullback of 5.48%

(median 2.73%).

2) The Coppock Curve (Curve) is a technical indicator that measures how fast the S&P 500 is currently rising, versus 11 and 14

months ago, to identify good buying opportunities. When it moves from a negative to a positive position, like now, it is

considered a buying opportunity.

3) The Bollinger Bands (Bands) have contracted to one of their narrowest readings in decades. In the six times this narrowness has

occurred since 1960, the returns for the S&P 500 have been significant over the next 12 months.

It is worth noting that following tight trading ranges, like we have seen over the past few years, these “quiet periods” have almost

always been followed by significant rallies (sidebar: yesterday was the 26th trading session were the SPX has not moved by more

than 1%). Moreover, when all three indices (D-J Industrials, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite) have simultaneously made new all-times

highs, it has been a bullish thing. In studying the ensuing chart on page 11, one can observe that since 1980 there have been 149

instances when these three indexes made new all-time highs on the same day as represented by the red dots. As shown, when the

red dots begin to appear, it is usually not an isolated event and tends to be followed by clusters of more red dots.

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/coppock-curve.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp




Jeffrey Saut

“Earnings-Driven Bull Market” The next leg of the secular bull market should be driven by a marked improvement in earnings. Certainly, the next few quarters’ earnings comparisons should look great given last year’s terrible 3Q and 4Q earnings. To be sure, 4Q15 marked the “profit trough” for the S&P 500 and this chart from Richard Bernstein Advisors shows how stocks typically perform following a profit trough.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Richard Bernstein Advisors.




Jeffrey Saut

“S&P 500 Earnings” If S&P’s current bottom-up operating earnings estimate for 2017 is anywhere near the mark ($132.76e) the S&P 500 is trading at 16.4x 2017 estimates. Looking through the rearview mirror, on a trailing four-quarter basis, the S&P is trading at 18.3x trailing earnings (as of June). Holding that P/E multiple constant renders a price target for the S&P 500 of ~2440 in 2017 (18.3 x $132.76). Importantly, we are no longer hearing about how the strong U.S. dollar is hurting earnings on the earnings calls we listen to.

12-Month Earnings per Share

Operating Earnings As Reported Earnings (estimates are bottom-up) (estimates are bottom-up)

2017 $132.76 $121.97

$128.56 $118.30

$124.23 $114.13

$117.44 $107.33

2016 $110.85 $101.12

$102.55 $90.53

$98.36 $86.66

2015 $100.45 $86.53

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Raymond James Research.




Jeffrey Saut

But, for Over a Year We Have Suggested the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Was Forming a Giant Top and Would No Longer Be a Headwind for Earnings. QED…




Jeffrey Saut

Similarly, Our Houston-Based Energy Team Nailed the February Lows in Crude Oil and Does Not Expect Prices to Go Back to Triple Digits.

They Are, However, Using a Long-Term “Price Deck” of $70+ per barrel. “Not Too Hot and Not Too Cold” (Read: No Headwinds)

Source: FactSet prices.




Jeffrey Saut

New All-Time Highs

Source: Bespoke Investment Group.

S & P New ATH After >1 Year PauseForward Returns

Date 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year Max Drawdown

1/22/1929 -0.64% 2.71% 14.24% -11.41% -29.56%

9/22/1954 0.41% 10.44% 14.50% 41.84% -1.00%

9/24/1958 2.07% 8.70% 11.39% 14.06% -0.42%

1/27/1961 3.58% 6.65% 9.01% 11.32% -0.16%

9/3/1963 0.23% 1.57% 7.43% 13.28% -4.20%

5/4/1967 -4.34% 1.42% -1.71% 4.86% -7.00%

3/6/1972 0.60% 0.05% 2.52% 5.02% -3.71%

7/17/1980 1.61% 10.10% 10.98% 7.67% -0.58%

11/3/1982 -0.77% 0.25% 14.31% 14.54% -6.96%

1/21/1985 2.83% 3.12% 10.91% 18.43% 0.00%

7/26/1989 3.69% 1.67% -2.30% 5.63% -4.46%

2/14/1995 2.69% 9.46% 15.75% 36.88% -0.12%

5/30/2007 -1.76% -6.40% -6.67% -8.62% -16.79%

3/28/2013 1.81% 2.80% 8.25% 18.38% -1.76%

7/11/2016 2.27% ? ? ? ?

Average 0.86% 3.75% 7.76% 12.28% -5.48%

Median 1.10% 2.76% 9.96% 12.30% -2.73%




Jeffrey Saut

The Coppock Curve The Coppock Curve is an indicator that takes a 10-month weighted-moving average of the sum of the 14-month and 11-month rate-of-change for an index like the S&P 500 and does not generate many signals when using monthly data. Interestingly enough, Coppock chose 11 and 14 months as the inputs because an Episcopalian priest said this was the average mourning period when grieving the loss of a loved one, and Coppock theorized that the recovery period for stock market losses would be similar to this timeframe (source: Stockcharts.com). The buy signal comes when the indicator crosses from negative territory into positive territory, which has recently occurred, and as you can see on the chart, it typically has done a good job identifying the big bull moves going back to the early 1980s.

Source: Stockcharts.com




Jeffrey Saut

The Bollinger Bands® The Bollinger Bands® have contracted to one of their narrowest spreads in history. This suggests the upside breakout is legitimate and is telegraphing higher prices. Further, the S&P 500 has been in one of the tightest trading ranges in years. If past is prelude, the upside breakout portends for much higher prices.




Jeffrey Saut

Connect the Dots! When all three indices (D-J Industrials, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite) have simultaneously made new all-time highs (like recently), it has been a bullish thing. In studying the chart, one can observe that since 1980 there have been 149 instances when these three indexes made new all-time highs on the same day as represented by the red dots. As shown, when the red dots begin to appear, it is usually not an isolated event and tends to be followed by clusters of more red dots.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group.




Economic & Market Update

Equity Markets/ Technical Analysis

Monetary Policy, Inflation, FX

U.S. Economy Global Economy

While the S&P 500 has held above recent breakout levels, which should be seen as a positive, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite have also made recent all-time highs. All three indices have no price resistance above current levels.

The S&P 500 is consolidating right below 2200 near all-time highs; near-term support at 2175, 2150, 2135, and 2120

Near-term: Equity valuations appear high and the slightly overbought state of the market points to a possible pullback, which should be shallow: buying opportunity.

Earnings: As of August 19, 95% of the S&P 500 has now reported. Seventy-one percent have beat consensus EPS expectations. Health Care and Technology led the way with more than 80% of companies beating expectations.

Oil: Has yet to close a week above $50 since rebounding in February; near-term support at $46.50, $44.50, and $43 while resistance is found at $50 and $51.60. Possible inverse head & shoulders pattern forming.

Inflows into equity funds continue, especially those invested in emerging markets, suggesting a renewed “risk on” attitude. Likewise, there is evidence of rotation into higher-beta/more cyclical sectors.

Kansas City Federal Reserve annual Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY August 25-27). The symposium’s theme this year is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.” With an eye to the future, central bankers take the opportunity to look back at not only rates, but other “tools” (Quantitative Easing) and communication strategies (guidance on rates).

FOMC Minutes from July 26-27 meeting (August 17) – FOMC shows division. Majority of FOMC participants believe there is time to wait for more information (no change); others worried labor market has tightened enough (prefer to raise rates). Hawkish view among members (cast votes) seems to be minority.

Fed Policy Outlook - The Fed remains in tightening mode, but is expected to proceed cautiously as it normalizes policy. Decisions will remain data-dependent, focusing on the job market and the inflation outlook. A September 21 rate hike is possible; but unlikely. Fed officials have repeatedly revised lower the projected path of increases to the federal funds rate (dot plot). This is likely to continue at the September FOMC meeting.

Exchange rates (August 22): EUR/USD: $1.133 GBP/USD: $1.318 USD/JPY: ¥100.1 CAD/USD: $1.290 CHF/USD: $1.040

With moderate growth and an economy not necessarily firing on all cylinders, data can be all over the place. Financial markets are susceptible to this noise (Fed looks at bigger picture).

Employment Report (August 5) – Stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 255,000. Net positive revision to May and June.

Retail Sales (Census Bureau August 12) – Weaker than expected in July (median forecast +0.4%); June revised higher.

Producer Price Index (August 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics) – weaker than expected; reflective of lower food & energy prices and drop in trade services.

Housing Starts/Building Permits (August 16 Commerce Dept.) – Permits were a bit lower than expected in July. Single-family permits (key figure) fell 3.7% over June, but the 2.4% y/y increase supports trend of continued improvement in single-family and pullback in multi-family.

Jobless Claims (Labor Dept. August 4) – As expected; still very low trend.

Consumer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics August 16) – Largely in line, while inflation was below expectations (modest deflation in “stuff”/modest inflation in services).

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda hints at chance of further easing in September, which could come in the form of rates dipping further into negative territory.

EU Summit (August 22) – German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollande, and Italian PM Renzi meet once more post-Brexit to discuss future of EU.

ECB (August 23) – Benoit Coeure (Draghi lieutenant) calls on Eurozone governments to enact fiscal and structural reform to match the central bank’s stimulus efforts. Inflation below target/high unemployment. Rates already in negative territory.

BOE Monetary Policy Decision (August 4) – Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cuts Bank Rate by 25 bp to 0.25% and expands asset purchase “scheme.”

Source: FactSet, Raymond James Research.




Andrew Adams

Only Space Up Above Now that the NASDAQ Composite Index (black line) has joined the S&P 500 (blue line) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (red line) in making new all-time highs, all three major indices are literally in uncharted territory with no price resistance above current values.

Source: Stockcharts.com.




Andrew Adams

Breadth Breakout The breakout in the major indices has also been accompanied by much better breadth than what we have seen in the past few years. The five-day total of New Highs-New Lows on the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX is trending up, meaning more stocks are participating in this rally than lagging. The breakout in this indicator that occurred earlier this year looks a lot like the one we experienced in early 2009, with a strong thrust upcoming on the heels of about three years of steady declines.





Andrew Adams

Bollinger Bands® For those not familiar, standard Bollinger Bands® use a 20-period moving average to determine the recent trend and then add volatility bands 2 standard deviations above and below that average to help determine a range that prices are expected to stay within based on recent volatility. The bands can be used in many different ways, but I like to monitor the indicator at the bottom of the chart that tracks the width of those bands to help determine when volatility is expanding or contracting in a stock or index. And as you would expect, volatility has contracted considerably recently, and the bands are actually about as narrow as they ever get on the S&P 500. The vertical lines below show the instances in the past 20 years when the bands were this narrow, and as you can see on the top index chart, this usually occurs during the middle of a pretty powerful bull run. Boring markets, it seems, are usually very good markets.





Andrew Adams

Interest Rates vs. Stock Prices One reason so many people are expecting tough times ahead for the stock market is that, after almost 35 years of mostly falling interest rates, it is expected that we will enter a rising-rate environment over the next few years. And when you look at the below of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate (blue line) compared to the S&P 500 (red line), it is very easy to see the divergence that has occurred since the early 1980s. However, we do not believe the “jaws are going to close” and that we’re going to experience a large reversion to the mean. In fact, while the inflationary 1970s were not a great time for the stock market by any means, keep in mind the S&P 500 still clearly trended up from the early 1950s until the 1980s despite the rising-rate environment, and we do not foresee anything like the crazy inflationary 1970s happening again that will force rates up at a quick pace. Bottom line: it’s likely going to be a while before interest rates are attractive compared with the possible returns of stocks.

Source: FactSet.




Andrew Adams

Zoomed-In View And if we focus just on the last 35 years when interest rates were largely moving down (blue line), we can still see that the stock market (red line) has generally done well during those times when rates have risen. In particular, rising rates in 1986, 1998, 2003, 2009, and 2012 were accompanied by gains in the S&P 500, while even the rising-rate periods of 1980, 1983, and 1993 didn’t result in large losses for stocks. This goes back to a point we have often made over the last couple of years – as long as interest rates rise as a result of improving fundamentals and economic data, it should also be good for the stock market.





Andrew Adams

Higher Beta = Higher Returns? We have also mentioned a few times recently how low volatility strategies may have hit a periodic top and that the more active, cyclical stocks appear to be the place to be at the moment. That is a good sign for the market, as whole, since you can see from the chart below that outperformance by higher beta stocks tends to coincide with better gains in the S&P 500. Whenever the relative strength line in the top panel moves up, the S&P 500 High Beta portfolio is outperforming, while the S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio is doing better whenever the line falls. The S&P 500 is in the bottom panel and does have a history of doing better the last few years whenever high beta is in favor, so we want that top line to keep moving up!





Scott Brown

U.S. Economic Outlook – Key Themes

Moderate growth

Domestic economy

o Consumer fundamentals remain strong

Although the pace of job growth has slowed somewhat relative to 2014-2015

Positive benefit of low gasoline prices will fade over time

o Housing fundamentals are strong

o Business fixed investment has been weak (suggesting a “slow patch,” not a recession)

Little help from the rest of the world

o Brexit

Start of negotiations likely to be later in 2017 (with a two-year window for completion)

Mixed views on how much of a drag on U.K. GDP growth

Uncertainty should restrain business fixed investment in the near term

o Continued concerns elsewhere

Chinese economic restructuring

Continued weakness in Latin America

Federal Reserve

Fed will be cautious and gradual in raising short-term interest rates

o Still in tightening mode, but in no hurry (and still data-dependent)

o Job market data will play a key role in the policy outlook

o Monitoring global risks




Scott Brown

2Q16 GDP: Strong Consumer Spending, Slow Inventories




Scott Brown

Job Growth Has Trended at a Moderately Strong Pace




Scott Brown

Unemployment Insurance Claims Are Trending Low




Scott Brown

Unemployment Is Trending Lower (but More Slowly)




Scott Brown

Employment Rates Are Trending Higher




Scott Brown

Growth in Average Hourly Earnings Is Moderately Strong




Scott Brown

Consumer Spending Picked Up in 2Q16




Scott Brown

Real Income Per Capita Has Slowed




Scott Brown

Retail Sales Slowed in July, but Are Often Volatile




Scott Brown

Industrial Production Picked Up in July




Scott Brown

A Seasonal Adjustment Quirk Likely Added to Auto Output




Scott Brown

Hot Weather Boosted the Output of Utilities




Scott Brown

Energy Exploration May Have Bottomed




Scott Brown

The CPI Is Still Trending Low




Scott Brown

The Fed’s Chief Inflation Gauge Remains Below Target




Scott Brown

Fed Reserve Policy

There are seven members of the Fed’s Board of Governors (currently five, with two nominees languishing in the Senate).

The are 12 Fed district banks, each with a president.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is made of the Fed governors, the New York district bank president, and four other district bank presidents (who rotate every year).

The federal funds rate is the rate that banks charge each other for overnight borrowing. The FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate.

The discount rate (also called the primary credit rate) is the rate that the Fed charges banks for short-term borrowing. It also defines the upper end of the target range for the federal funds rate. Requests to change the discount rate are submitted by one or more of the district banks, then approved (or not) by the Fed’s Board of Governors.

In mid-June, 6 of the 12 Fed district banks requested an increase in the discount rate (not approved by the governors). The governors considered, but did not approve, requests to increase the discount rate in late July.




Scott Brown

FOMC Minutes

(from the July 26-27 policy meeting)

“…participants discussed the conditions that could warrant taking another step in removing monetary policy accommodation. With inflation continuing to run below the Committee's 2% objective, many judged that it was appropriate to wait for additional information... Several suggested that the Committee would likely have ample time to react if inflation rose more quickly than they currently anticipated... Although near-term downside risks to the outlook had diminished, some participants stressed that the Committee needed to consider the constraints on the conduct of monetary policy associated with proximity to the effective lower bound on short-term interest rates. However, some other participants viewed recent economic developments as indicating that labor market conditions were at or close to those consistent with maximum employment. They judged that another increase in the federal funds rate was or would soon be warranted, with a couple of them advocating an increase at this meeting... A few emphasized the risk to the economic expansion that would be associated with allowing labor market conditions to tighten to an extent that could lead to an unwanted buildup of inflation pressures and thus eventually require a rapid increase in the federal funds rate. Several expressed concern that an extended period of low interest rates risked intensifying incentives for investors to reach for yield and could lead to the misallocation of capital and mispricing of risk, with possible adverse consequences for financial stability.”

Monetary policy action is still “data-dependent.” A September rate hike is possible (depending on the data), but not likely.




Scott Brown

Election Outlook

White House: Much like in 2012, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida will be key for the presidential race. Based on current trends, the Republican candidate will likely need to win all three of these states to garner at least 270 electoral votes; the Democratic candidate will need to win only one.

Senate: A third of the seats are contested every two years. The Republicans currently hold a four-seat advantage. Democrats are defending 10 seats (but have already secured California), while the Republicans are defending 24 seats. If Hillary Clinton is elected president, the Democrats would need to pick up at least four seats from the Republicans for a majority (the Vice President would break a 50-50 tie). However, a party needs to have a filibuster-proof 60-seat super-majority to pass legislation without compromise.

House: All 435 seats are contested every two years. The Republicans currently hold a 247-to-186 advantage. The Democrats would need to pick up 32 seats, but only a little over 60 races are seen as competitive.

A lot can happen between now and November 8, but current polling suggests strong odds of a Clinton victory and a good chance that the Democrats flip the Senate (but without a super-majority). It will be much harder to flip the House.




Scott Brown

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicator Status Comments

Growth GDP growth is expected to be supported by an inventory rebuild in 3Q16, but growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 have been edging lower.

Employment Nonfarm payrolls have been a bit uneven in recent months. The trend is moderately strong, but somewhat slower than in the last two years. Job destruction remains low.

Consumer Spending Aggregate income growth slowed into 2Q16, but real average wages remain moderate. Results have been mixed across categories.

Business Investment Orders and shipments have been weak, but not “recessionary” weak. Businesses are expected to remain relatively cautious in the near term.

Manufacturing An uptick in factory output in July likely reflected seasonal adjustment issues (watch for confirmation or a possible correction in the data for August).

Housing and Construction

A bit choppy from month to month, but a general trend of improvement. Supply constraints remain a factor, lifting home prices and rents.

Inflation

Some mild deflationary pressure in consumer goods. Prices of services have been mixed, but generally higher (shelter, medical care). Firms still generally have a limited ability to raise prices. Labor cost pressures are moderate, but should increase in the next couple of years.

Monetary Policy

With labor market slack being reduced, the Fed remains in tightening mode, looking to resume the process of policy normalization, but officials will proceed cautiously, aware of the potential downside risks from global economic and financial developments.

Long-Term Interest Rates

Long-term interest rates should drift gradually higher as the economy improves and the Fed raises short-term rates. However, in the near term, we should see limited concern about inflation and a continued flight to safety (lower bond yields) due to global concerns.

Fiscal Policy State and local government budgets are in better shape and spending should add a bit to GDP growth. Demographics (an aging population) will boost spending on entitlements (Social Security and Medicare) in the years ahead.

The Dollar The dollar is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, supported by expectations of gradual Fed tightening and worries about the rest of the world.

Rest of the World The global outlook remains relatively soft by historical standards, with a number of downside risks. China’s restructuring will be difficult. Brexit adds uncertainty.




Scott Brown

Key Calendar Dates

August 23 – New Home Sales (July)

August 24 – Existing Home Sales (July)

August 25 – Durable Goods Orders

August 26 – Real GDP (2Q16, 2nd estimate)

Yellen Speech (Jackson Hole)

August 31 – ADP Payroll Estimate (August)

September 1 – ISM Manufacturing Index (July)

Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

September 2 – Employment Report (August)

September 5 – Labor Day Holiday (markets closed)

September 6 – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (August)

September 21 – Fed Policy Decision, Yellen press conference

October 7 – Employment Report (September)

November 8 – Election Day




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Simple Moving Average (SMA) - A simple, or arithmetic, moving average is calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) - A type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data. Relative Strength Index (RSI) - The Relative Strength Index is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.

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