Global biomass availability in light of policy development – iLUC Focus
Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Erwin Schmid, Uwe A. Schneider
AND MANY OTHER COLLABORATORS
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Forestry Program, Austria
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU),
Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Austria
University of Hamburg, Sustainability and Global Change (FNU), Germany
BECOTEPS Workshops – Non Food Chains, Brussels, 6-8 October 2009
What I will NOT talk about!!
www.cc-tame.eu – European Policy Value of R&D policy portfolios Impact of stable expectations on investment (Climate Policy) Flexibility (Fuel Switching,polyproduction) Portfolio
Economies of Scale (BE&CCS vs. PolyPr)
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…Biomass: The Serving Butler for Multiple Masters
Climate Protection
EnergySecurity
Rural Development
Global Energy Portfolio – 2DG Global Energy Portfolio – 2DG TargetTarget
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Source: Obersteiner et al. forthcoming
Land is Finite Biomass Availability
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II. Model: GLOBIOMII. Model: GLOBIOMGlobal Biomass Optimization ModelCoverage: the Earth, Ag-For-BiomassBasic resolution: 28 regions
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Wood Processing
Bioenergy Processing
Livestock Feeding
Unmanaged Forest
Managed Forest
Short RotationTree Plantations
Cropland
Grassland
Other Natural Vegetation
Energy products:Ethanol (1st gen.)Biodiesel (1st gen.)Ethanol (2nd gen)BTLHeatPowerGasFuel wood
Forest products:SawnwoodWoodpulp
Livestock:Animal Calories
Crops:BarleyCornCotton …
II. Model presentation: Supply II. Model presentation: Supply chainschains
BIOPHYSICAL INPUT DATABIOPHYSICAL INPUT DATASimulation Units (SimU) = HRU & PX30 & Country zone
Source: Skalský et al. (2007)
Country HRU*PX30
PX5
SimU delineation relatedstatistics on LC classes and
Cropland management systems
reference for geo-coded data on crop management;
input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;
LC&LUstat
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• Weather• Hydrology• Erosion• Carbon sequestration• Crop growth• Crop rotations• Fertilization• Tillage• Irrigation• Drainage• Pesticide• Grazing• Manure
Processes
Major outputs:Crop yields, Environmental effects (e.g. soil carbon, )
40 crops (>85% of harvested area)4 management systems: High input, Low input, Irrigated, Subsistence
II. Model presentation: Cropland - II. Model presentation: Cropland - EPICEPIC
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II. Model presentation: EPIC - YieldsII. Model presentation: EPIC - Yields
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II. Model presentation: Forests – II. Model presentation: Forests – G4MG4MStep 2: Forest growth functions estimated from yield tables
Major outputs:Mean annual incrementTree sizeSawn wood suitabilityHarvesting cost
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Productivity distribution
II. Model presentation: Forest II. Model presentation: Forest plantationsplantations
Woody Bioenergy Supply for 2000-2100 B1 (Price < 6$/GJ)
Source: Rokitianskii et al. 2006
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III. Model application for iLUCIII. Model application for iLUCSimulation horizon: 2000–2020
Main drivers: Population (IIASA SRES projections)Diets (FAO, 2006)Bio-energy demand (POLES team, JRC Seville, and WEO, 2008)(GDP, technological change,…)
Scenarios
1st dimension:
+/- 100 biofuel mandates WEO 2020 reference
2nd dimension: POLICIES
1. Global scale of mandates – EU27 x World
2. Trade with biofuels – YES x NO
3. Deforestation allowed – YES x NO
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III. Model application: Scenarios III. Model application: Scenarios settingsetting
Mha, based on WEO 2020 targets, If not constrained (e.g. by REDD) important deforestation occurs
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World biofuel targets, no trade
World biofuel targets, with trade
EU biofuel targets, no trade
EU biofuel targets, with trade
Deforestation due to biofuels expansion
In Mha, EU mandates in 2020 put pressure on deforestation elsewhere even without trade – iLUC!
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0SouthAmerica
PacificAsia
Africa SouthAsia
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PacificAsia
Africa SouthAsia
Deforestation due to EU biofuel expansion
With tradeWithout trade
Crop price index, avoiding deforestation further increases the effect of biofuels on crop prices
With trade, allowing deforestation
With trade, preventing deforestation
Without trade, allowing deforestation
Without trade, preventing deforestation
1.10
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World biofuels expansion and crop prices
19Avoiding deforestation further increases the effect of biofuels on crop prices.
Crop Price IndexCrop Price IndexBTL ETHANOL
Source: Havlik et al. 2008
21Crop management adjustments necessary to avoid higher price increases.
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Biofuel mandates lead to increases of Soil N2O emissions.
REDD policies may slow them down.
Biofuel policy benefitsTime is crucial!!!!
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Total carbon balance [MtCO2eq/year]: T1
POLES_S1_G1 POLES_S1_G2
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Total carbon balance [MtCO2eq/year]: T5
POLES_S1_G1 POLES_S1_G2
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Total carbon balance [MtCO2eq/year]: T10
POLES_S1_G1 POLES_S1_G2
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Total carbon balance [MtCO2eq/year]: T20
POLES_S1_G1 POLES_S1_G2
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Total carbon balance [MtCO2eq/year]: T30
POLES_S1_G1 POLES_S1_G2
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V. Conclusions iLUCV. Conclusions iLUC
- Biofuel expansion generates important iLUC GHG emissions.
- iLUC depends more on the possibility to source biofuels efficiently on
international markets than on the global scale of production,
ALTHOUGH for the larger scale iLUC per energy unit increases.
- Policies (like REDD) aiming at reducing the negative (i)LUC effects
will fortify the pressure on crop prices,
UNLESS management systems adapted (feasible?)
- Unit iLUC effects contingent on the global multiple policy setting
to be taken into account if iLUC factors should be calculated
…Biomass: The Serving Butler for Multiple Masters
Climate Protection
EnergySecurity
Rural Development
•R&D now!•Diffuse later!•Trade & LCA!•Stable Expectations