Global Climate Change: The Heart of the Matter
• What we can see (observations)
• What is causing it (causes and evidence)
• What can happen (projections)
• What we can do (responses)
The Heart of the Matter
• What we can see (observations)
• What is causing it (causes and evidence)
• What can happen (projections)
• What we can do (responses)
The Heart of the Matter
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Warming is Unequivocal
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
And Not Uniform
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/royal-weddings-and-climate-change1/
NASA
2003 European Heat Wave
After Schaer et al., 2004
Switzerland Summer Temperature
2003 European Heat Wave
• What we can see (observations)
• What is causing it (causes and evidence)
• What can happen (projections)
• What we can do (responses)
The Heart of the Matter
Ice Core Records
Radiative Forcing
IPCC, 2007Black = ObservedGold = Human and Natural ForcingsBlue = Only Natural Forcings
Fingerprint Analysis
• What we can see (observations)
• What is causing it (causes and evidence)
• What can happen (projections)
• What we can do (responses)
The Heart of the Matter
UCS
UCS
Projected Changes in CA Summer Temperature
Diminishing Sierra SnowpackPercentage Remaining, Relative to 1961-1990
UCS
Tipping elements in the Earth system
Lenton et al., PNAS 2008
• What we can see (observations)
• What is causing it (causes and evidence)
• What can happen (projections)
• What we can do (responses)
The Heart of the Matter
Mitigation
Adaptation
Climate Stabilization
Raupach et al., 2007
Regional CO2 Emissions
2004 2000-2004Growth
Davis and Caldeira, 2010
Davis and Caldeira, 2010
IPCC, 2007
28
Extreme Events: Heat
IPCC, 2007
Extreme Events: Heat
29