Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Siri Kanjanasiri, Research Analyst
ASEAN Powertrain Compliance and Forecasting
Global Electrified Vehicles Outlook
September 18, 2018
PTT Synergy Hall, Energy Complex,
Bangkok
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Contents
ADNEGA 2
SHI TUOBA MARKIT 3
EV OUTLOOK 4-10
VEx fo metsys noisluporP by IHS Markit automotive 5
kooltuo noitcudorp (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele labolG 6
kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele labolG 7
8 kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele NAESA
9 kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele dnaliahT
VEx sMEO production forecast outlook 10
VE ROF SROTCAF YEK 11-20
(VEx) elcihev deifirtcele fo krowemarf tekraM 12
evitcepsrep tnemnrevoG 13-14
evitcepsrep yrtsudnI 15-16
evitcepsrep remusnoC 17-18
evitcepsrep ygolonhceT 19-20
IMPLICATION TO GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET 21-23
dnamed leseid dna enilosag VL yrlaviR 22
32 dnamed leseid dna enilosag VL ymonotuA
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018
2
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
We think about the world in a distinct way.IHS Markit is harnessing the deepest sources of information, analytics and expertise to forge solutions for the industries and
markets that drive economies worldwide.
We call this The New Intelligence.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018About IHS Markit
3
The automotive sector is one of the biggest and
most competitive markets in the world and relies
on in-depth analysis for its daily operations.
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EV Outlook
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018
4
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Propulsion system definition of xEV by IHS Markit Automotive
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook
5
100% 0%
ICE
MHEV
HEV
xEVBEV
H
FCEV
Ele
ctr
ific
ation
Internal Combustion
Engine
Mild Hybrid
Electric Vehicle
Fossil fuels (Co2)
Hybrid
Electric Vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid
Electric Vehicle
Fuel Cell
Electric VehicleBattery
Electric Vehicle
PHEV
Source: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook
6
20
30
20
18
0.6M
4.4M
North America
20
30
20
18
1.2M
16.5M
Europe 20
30
20
18
1.2M26.6M
China
20
30
20
18
40k
0.9M
ASEAN
20
30
0.8M
South America
20
30
20
18
20k
0.4M
Middle East/Africa
20
30
20
18
2.7M
India
0.2M
20
30
20
18
2.3M
7.4M
Japan/Korea
Global Electrified Vehicles (xEV) production outlook China takes lead as largest EV market/production region globally. Growth for xEV overtakes the conventional
vehicles and volumes will surge from only 5.5M today to 60M by 2030.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle (xEV) OutlookxEV production is expected to reach over 50% of total global light vehicle production by 2030. Production demand
growth for ICE is decreasing over time.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Mill
ion
s
BEV PHEV HEV ICE
96M
Global Light Vehicle Production by Propulsion System through 2030
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
ICE vs xEV in 2025 / 2030
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
BEV7% PHEV
6%
HEV28%
ICE59%
2025
BEV9% PHEV
8%
HEV36%
ICE47%
2030
116M
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
ASEAN electrified vehicle (xEV) outlookElectrified Vehicle (xEV) expected to eventually grow at slower pace in the region, mainly driven by government EV
schemes, however, ICE remains the mainstream.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook
ASEAN xEV market outlook by propulsion system through 2030
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Mill
ion
s
BEV xHEV ICE
8
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Mill
ion
s
BEV xHEV ICE Optimistic Forecast Scenario
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook
9
Thailand xEV market outlook by propulsion system through 2030
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
ICE vs xEV in 2025 / 2030
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
xEV CAGR: 80%
(2016-2020)xEV CAGR: 12%
(2021-2025)
xEV CAGR: 7.4%
(2026-2030)
BEV2%
xHEV21%
ICE77%
2030
BEV1%
xHEV15%
ICE84%
2025
Thailand electrified vehicle (xEV) outlookIHS Markit expected xEVs will reach over 0.65M units or 23% of total production by 2030.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook
10
Thailand xEV forecast by OEMs through 2030
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2018 2022 2026 2030
Tho
usands
Toyota Honda Nissan Mercedes-Benz BMW
• Toyota invested the battery production facilities in
Thailand for their hybrid model lineups for domestic and
export with annual capacity 70K units, and will be
operational from 2020. Most passenger cars expected to
equip with hybrid, while BEV is likely to be assembled
from 2021.
• Honda is anticipated to establish the battery and hybrid
component facilities for the local production of their hybrid
vehicles within 2020.
• Nissan planned to participate both hybrid (HEV) and
battery electric vehicle (BEV) scheme and make Thailand
as export base of HEVs in the region.
• Mercedes-Benz is currently assembling all model line up
with Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV), its local battery facilities will
be ready for production from 2019.
• BMW also established the battery plant in Rayong and
will be ready for local production from 2020.
OEM’s xEV production forecast outlook
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Key Factors for EV
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018
11
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Market framework of electrified vehicle (xEV)
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
12
Market Framework $
H
Policy & Regulatory Compliance
Cost Optimization
Energy Density & Range
Charging times
Charging Infrastructure
EV Subsidies/Incentives
BEV
FCEV
PHEV
HEVMHEV
ICE
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Government perspective
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
13
Market Framework $
H
Policy & Regulatory Compliance
Energy Density & Range
Charging times
Charging Infrastructure
EV Subsidies/Incentives
BEV
FCEV
PHEV
HEVMHEV
ICE
Cost Optimization
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
14
Compliance
Target and
Production
Regulations
US
• GHG is focusing on
CO2 emission.
• CAFE is focusing on
fuel consumption.
• National regulation
applies to 40 US states.
OEMs have to comply
with GHG and CAFE.
• However, California
ZEV is stricter targets
than national regulation.
• Target CO2 emission
reduction of 15% by
2025 and 30% by 2030
for passenger vehicles
and vans.
• The diesel scandal
made governments and
the EU turn against the
technology.
• OEMs are force to
produce NEVs credit into
market.
2019: 10% V.
2020: 12% V.
• Up to 30 cities to
introduce city restrictions
for ICE vehicles and
promote NEV
penetration.
EU China
ZEV
GHG
CAFE
CO2NEV Credit
CAFC
• Thai government
expected to increase
1.2M units of EV on the
road by 2036.
However, Government
EV scheme is only
investment incentive
programs not a
compulsory.
• Indonesia plans to
announce the Low
Emission Carbon
Emission Vehicle
(LCEV) regulation in
late 2018 but remains
unclear.
ASEAN
Only emission
standard adoption
Government perspectiveEV is significantly pushed by compliance target and regulations in developed regions and China, while a long road
ahead for EV in ASEAN that remains unclear.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Industry perspective
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
15
Market Framework $
H
Policy & Regulatory Compliance
Energy Density & Range
Charging times
Charging Infrastructure
EV Subsidies/Incentives
BEV
FCEV
PHEV
HEVMHEV
ICE
Cost Optimization
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
16
Industry
Perspective
• By 2010, a battery pack
used to cost $1,000 kWh,
then decline to $270 kWh
in 2017, then expected to
stand at $100/kWh in
2030.
• Chinese battery suppliers
increasingly in response to
local demand and exports.
• Battery costs to decrease
thanks to growing xEV
demand.
• Range (along with Fuel
Price) remains the key
bottleneck for overall mass
market.
- PHEV: 30-50 km
- BEV: >200 km
• Initial BEV volume
potential restricted mainly
to urban areas and for
secondary vehicles.
• Home charging possibilities,
while public charging
remains obstacle.
• Changing time expected to
shorter thanks to upcoming
battery technology (Solid
state).
• Quick charging technology
expected to be faster and
become more practical.
CostEnergy Density &
RangeCharging Time
• Thailand: Charging
station to quickly expand
by private and
government parties, e.g.
Daimler 70 stations, EA
1000 stations, EVAT 150
stations, but remains
inadequate especially in
rural areas.
• By 2017-18, compared to
number of charging
station are as follows
- China: nearly 630,000
stations
- US: approx. 48,000
stations
- EU: approx. 100,000
stations
Charging
Infrastructure
Industry perspectiveOverall situation is being developed in a way that supports xEV, but growth is different across the regions for many
reasons.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Consumer perspective
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
17
Market Framework $
H
Policy & Regulatory Compliance
Energy Density & Range
Charging times
Charging Infrastructure
EV Subsidies/Incentives
BEV
FCEV
PHEV
HEVMHEV
ICE
Cost Optimization
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
18
Consumer
Perspective
• Subsidies to play a significant role in the short-term forecast as they strongly increase the attractiveness of xEVs.
• In US, Incentives expected to run out at the end of the forecast timeframe.
• In China, Central Government: Purchasing incentives on BEVs and PHEVs – scope decreasing every two years and program to run
out in 2021 and not expected to be renewed.
- Purchase Tax: 10% tax reduction on the net price for NEVs – expected to remain in place.
- Local Governments: Several local governments with direct incentives for NEVs (e.g. Beijing & Shanghai).
• In Thailand, the Thai government has announced excise tax rates focused on increasing adoption of alternative powertrain vehicles
in the country. Under the new tax structure, the excise tax on battery-electric vehicles has been reduced from 10% to 2%.
EV subsidies/incentives
Consumer perspectiveSubsidies or incentives are the key to attract consumer acceptance at the beginning.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Technology perspective
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
19
Market Framework $
H
Policy & Regulatory Compliance
Energy Density & Range
Charging times
Charging Infrastructure
EV Subsidies/Incentives
BEV
FCEV
PHEV
HEVMHEV
ICE
Cost Optimization
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV
20
Technology
Perspective
• ICE production continues
in emerging markets with
stricter regulation and
higher vehicle efficiency
• Developed markets, e.g.
US, China and EU
introduced compliance
targets which increase
pressure for OEMs to
develop new framework for
xEV
• xEV Technology cost down
expected to reach a tipping
point for only some
markets
• MHEV demand expected to increase globally thanks to
reachable technology as a way to reduce emission,
particularly developed by Japanese OEMs
• Government incentives and lower vehicle prices expected to
trigger HEV growth in emerging markets driven by mid- to
high income people, while small engines vehicle remains
mainstream.
• More OEMs to compete in PHEV globally given emission
advantage, but price offering of the PHEV remains high due
to technology cost
• BEV is on the rise for some regions where the situation has
been successfully developed to attract local demand, e.g. US,
EU, and China, whereas, BEV in ASEAN is still in the initial
stage.
• Implementation of FCEV
technology remains
difficulties for most
markets in the world, but
development continues
particularly from Japanese
OEMs
• Infrastructure remains
constraints and limited
ICExEV
(Excluded FCEV)FCEVH
Technology perspectivePolicy makers make it hard for ICE technology, while xEV opportunities opens globally regardless market.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Implication to Global Energy Market
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018
21
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Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rivalry scenario: World LV gasoline and diesel demand
Note: Gasoline demand includes two-wheelers in addition to LVs. Other demand sources are not included. Diesel demand is for LVs only.
Source: IHS Markit, IEA © 2018 IHS Markit
MM
b/d
Gasoline, Rivalry 2018
Gasoline, Rivalry 2017
Gasoline history
Diesel, Rivalry 2017
Diesel, Rivalry 2018Diesel history
Implication to Global Energy Market
Rivalry LV gasoline and diesel demandComparison of 2017 and 2018 scenario outlooks.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Autonomy scenario: World LV gasoline and diesel demand
Note: Gasoline demand includes two-wheelers in addition to LVs. Other demand sources are not included. Diesel demand is for LVs only.
Source: Projections from IHS Markit; history from IHS Markit and IEA © 2018 IHS Markit
MM
b/d
Gasoline, Autonomy 2018
Gasoline, Autonomy 2017
Gasoline history
Diesel, Autonomy 2017
Diesel, Autonomy 2018Diesel history
Implication to Global Energy Market
Autonomy global LV gasoline and diesel demandComparison of 2017 and 2018 scenario outlooks.
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2018 Spring Automotive Client Briefing - CITY