Global outlook for Clean Coal Technologies
and the work of the IEA Clean Coal Centre
4th
EU - South Africa Coal and Clean Coal Working Group Meeting
5 to 6 November 2012, Johannesburg
Geoff Morrison
Programme Manager
IEA Clean Coal Centre
Contents
Coal aspects from IEA World Energy
Outlook
Improving plant efficiency and the High
Efficiency Low Emissions (HELE) Coal
Roadmap
Prospects for CCS
The work of IEA Clean Coal Centre
World Energy Outlook
Published by IEA November 2011
The views expressed do not necessarily reflect
those of the IEA
IEA WEO 2011: Emerging economies continue
to drive global energy demand
Growth in primary energy demand
Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035,
with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mto
e
China
India
Other developing Asia
Russia
Middle East
Rest of world
OECD
IEA WEO 2011: Coal won the energy race in the
first decade of the 21st century
Growth in global energy demand, 2000-2010
Coal accounted for almost half the increase in energy use over the past decade,
with the bulk of growth coming from the power sector in emerging economies
Nuclear
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
Coal Mto
e
Natural gas
Oil
Renewables
Coal production since 1971
IEA WEO 2011: Asia, the arena of future coal
trade
International coal markets & prices become increasingly sensitive to
developments in Asia; India surpasses China as the biggest coal importer soon
after 2020
Share of global hard coal trade
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2020 2035
India
China
Japan
European Union
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
IEA HELE Roadmap - Rationale
Coal fired power plant build in China
and India making the IEA’s 2DS
scenario (2oC temp rise by 2050)
almost unattainable
No plans to incorporate CCS in the
near or medium term – especially true
in India
SE Asia following an even less climate
friendly path: many smaller, sub-
critical units constructed
So best practice in terms of efficiency
becomes relatively more important
Hence need for High Efficiency, Low
Emissions (HELE) Roadmap for coal
fired power plant
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gt
CO
2 1) Deploy USC/ A-USC and
retrofit to raise efficiency
4) CCS with low energy penalty
2) Close older existing coal plants 3) Replace coal plants by gas, renewables, …
Action items for CO2 reduction 1st step 2nd step
1st step (to 2030): 1) Deployment of USC/A-USC, 2) Closure of old plants, 3) Coal to gas/renewables
2nd step (beyond 2030): 4) Deployment CCS with lower energy penalty
USC and A-USC for new installation and retrofit will be largely deployed. Policies enacted to lead to closure of old existing plants. Replacement of coal plants by, eg gas and renewables to be promoted.
Following successful demonstration of large scale integrated plant and reduction of its energy penalty, CCS will be equipped for deployment in both newly installed and existing plants.
Vision: courtesy of Osamu Ito, IEA
HELE technologies reduce the CO2/kWh for
capture
Increasing plant efficiency is important to
reduce the cost of CO2 abatement.
Sh
are
o
f C
CS
(1
=1
00
%)
Efficiency
improvement
CO2
abatement
by CCS
Avera
ge C
O2 in
tensity f
acto
r in
2D
S
(gC
O2/k
Wh)
33% 34% 37% 42% 43%
Raising efficiency significantly reduces the
CO2/kWh emitted
Efficiency in 2DS
Impact of efficiency improvement
on CO2 abatement
Large Scale Integrated CCS Projects
GCCSI – 2012 summary
The size of the challenge is clear
P
rim
ary
energ
y d
em
an
d for
coal (M
tce
)
4DS
2DS
6DS
Medium-Term
Coal Market Report
Near-term projections are not consistent with a low-
carbon scenario
China - CO2 capture and utilisation trials
in the coal-fired power sector
In 2008, Huaneng Group
established a side stream
post-combustion capture
unit on the 800MWe
Gaobadian PC CHP plant in
Beijing, with an annual CO2
capture capacity of 3000
tonnes.
In 2010, Huaneng installed
a larger unit on the 2x660
MWe Shidongkou No. 2
Power Plant in Shanghai,
which can capture 120,000
tonnes of CO2 each year.
In both cases, captured CO2
is sold to the food and
beverage industries.
Summary
Coal extraction and trade are set to continue to expand over
the next 2 decades
Trade will increasingly focus on China, India, and other Asian
countries
The opportunity to limit average global temperature rise to no
more than 2oC is disappearing fast
The coal use community can do better by making more use of
advanced more efficient technologies with commensurate
improvements in clean air
CCS is taking off more slowly than had been hoped. It is
happening with much technical success but hampered by
non-technical issues
The global
resource on the
clean use of
coal
Italy Japan
Rep. of
Korea
UK
Xstrata
BHEL
Anglo American
Thermal Coal
USA
S Africa
Netherlands Group
Austria
Canada
Germany CEC
Beijing Research
Inst Coal Chemistry
Australia
Coal Assoc
NZ Eletrobras Danish Power
Group
Suek
Vattenfall Banpu
Poland
GCCSI
CCC Reports published in the last year (1)
Integrating intermittent renewable energy technologies with
coal-fired power plant
Oct 2011
Pre-combustion capture of CO2 in IGCC plants Nov 2011
Prospects for coal & clean coal technologies in Kazakhstan Dec 2011
Cofiring high ratios of biomass with coal Jan 2012
CO2 abatement in iron and steel making plant Jan 2012
Carbon management for emerging economies Apr 2012
Legislation, standards and methods for mercury Apr 2012
Non-greenhouse emissions from coal fired power plants in China Apr 2012
Market impacts of seaborne trade on coal-importing countries Aug 2012
CO2 emissions from future coal-fired power generation July 2012
Update on lignite firing July 2012
Trace element emissions from coal Aug 2012
Hybrid carbon capture systems Sep 2012
Understanding pulverised coal, biomass and waste combustion Sep 2012
Coal-fired CCS demonstration plants, 2012 Oct 2012
An early deployment strategy for carbon capture, utilisation &
storage technologies
Oct 2012
CCC Reports published in the last year (2)
Reports in draft
Support mechanisms for cofiring secondary fuels
with coal
Coal prospects in the Philippines
Low water FGD technologies
Losses in the coal supply chain
Gaseous emissions from stockpiles
Energy issues for Mongolia
Public attitudes to biomass cofiring
IEA CCC Workshops
Upgrading and efficiency improvements in coal-
fired power plants
Mercury emissions from coal
Underground coal gasification
Advanced ultrasupercritical coal-fired power
plants
Cofiring biomass with coal
UCG Network
Meeting
Network meeting held on August 22-23 in Banff
with 70 UCG experts
Presentations over the two days covered the
status of UCG globally and within Canada
Legal and regulatory issues
Modelling
Project development
Engineering and geosciences, and
financing of UCG projects
19-20th
September 2012
EVN Forum, Vienna, Austria
Current state of A-USC
technology
National
programme
Steam
temperature Efficiency
(LHV, net )
Programme
start date
Demonstration plant
operational by (size) Also includes:
EU 700ºC >50% 1998 2021 (500 MWe) Coatings, biomass co-firing,
cycling
USA 760ºC 45-47%
(HHV, net)
2000 2021 (600 MWe) Oxyfuel, coatings, high
sulphur coal
Japan 700ºC >50% 2008 2021 (600 MW) Biomass co-firing
China 700ºC 46-50% 2011 2021 (660 MWe) -
India 700ºC >50% 2011 2017 (800 MWe) -
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India
China
Japan
USA
EU
Timeline showing duration between programme start date and the
planned date for an operational demonstration plant
One and a half day event with 16 technical papers covering:
Overview presentations from IEA and IEA CCC
Policies to encourage efficiency improvement
Industrial, national and international efficiency improvement
programmes
Reporting, monitoring and verification of programmes
Technical issues and case studies, and
Basic research
To be held at E.ON’s Technology Centre at Ratcliffe-on-Soar, UK
on 19-20 March 2013
Call for papers now open
http://upgrading2.coalconferences.org