OECD Steel Committee Meeting, March 25, 2019, ParisGlobal Steel Market Outlook
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Key observations:Mild deceleration in steel demand amid elevated uncertainties
Steel demand in 2018 remained resilient despite volatile
environment 2018 saw rapid deterioration in environment with peaking of cycle, elevated uncertainty
Chinese steel demand showed stable deceleration thanks to boost from mild stimulus on real estate. Some statistical issues
Emerging economies continued to recover, but weaker than expected growth
2019/20 will continue to see deceleration in global steel demand Uncertainties remain escalated, mostly politically driven
Developed economies moderating, still positive growth in EU and US expected
China’s deceleration will be cushioned by stimulus measures
While featuring overall slow growth, the picture of other developing economies seems mixed: resilient Asia vs slowly recovering LA vs troubled Turkey vs muted CIS vs emerging North Africa vs struggling Middle East
Downside risks vs upside risks Deteriorating confidence vs Stimulus 3
Global overviewSteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)
1 595.4 million tonnes, 5.0%/ 2.6%* growth
1 657.9 million tonnes, 3.9%/ 2.1%* growth
1 681.2 million tonnes, 1.4% growth
2017
2018 (forecasts)
2019 (forecasts)
4
*- Series based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics
db
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Austria3.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.411
Belgium-Luxembourg4.6005.5005.6005.4004.1004.6115.0344.2484.1914.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.741
Czech Republic5.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472
Finland2.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942
France14.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.100
Germany35.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.900
Hungary2.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.750
Italy31.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854
Netherlands3.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.641
Poland8.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.300
Slovak Republic1.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638
Slovenia1.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.020
Spain20.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563
Sweden4.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.183
United Kingdom12.54614.14314.31613.0337.8789.89410.2259.6479.59310.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.759
Rest of EU (28)16.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.117
European Union (28)167.164191.563203.048186.553121.249146.664156.992140.683142.380148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.391
European Union (15)141.642160.269167.136152.29799.519120.499128.122113.930115.184118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.252
Turkey18.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754
Rest of Other Europe5.7227.2165.3766.2985.1395.2445.7285.5905.6056.2385.7176.6296.5256.6546.762
Other Europe24.16228.43829.14627.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.516
Kazakhstan2.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.823
Russia29.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.193
Ukraine5.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.772
Rest of CIS4.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.501
CIS41.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.289
Canada16.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252
Mexico15.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.239
United States105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177
NAFTA137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.668
Argentina3.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.069
Brazil16.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.360
Chile2.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.860
Colombia2.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.761
Peru1.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905
Venezuela2.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.511
Rest of C & S America4.1084.5685.6865.8304.3044.7754.9645.4036.7747.1137.3637.0897.1957.3937.592
Central & South America32.59137.34442.62245.33934.29045.93247.38149.05551.68449.25846.07339.93341.77343.20045.058
Algeria2.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047
Egypt4.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.567
Morocco1.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246
South Africa4.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.780
Rest of Africa5.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.691
Africa19.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.332
Iran14.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.456
Saudi Arabia7.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263
United Arab Emirates4.9946.4977.71212.0926.2416.6286.8337.0446.8207.1497.1367.8337.9318.0708.069
Rest of the Middle East8.4098.1619.18610.74312.22411.62211.30112.18212.79613.38513.46013.94913.60113.96914.331
Middle East34.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.119
587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040
China347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040
India39.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65275.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.287
Indonesia7.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.417
Japan76.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.800
Malaysia6.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.017
Philippines3.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241
Singapore3.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.750
South Korea47.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725
Taiwan, China19.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588
Thailand13.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82917.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.964
Vietnam5.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.628
Rest of Asia0.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.172
Asia570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021026.4251011.133977.4941000.5631058.4541110.4731124.627
Australia6.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.052
New Zealand0.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.820
Other Oceania0.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.364
Oceania7.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.236
Asia & Oceania578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321033.2531018.713984.9181007.5101065.0131117.7651131.863
3.0002.0000.000
World1036.2301134.0911223.9321230.3601152.6891315.4361418.2681445.5571544.6011549.7301504.1681519.7931595.4121657.8861681.235
World excl. China688.758756.427805.507783.499601.246727.855777.045785.452803.155838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.195
BRIC433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879
MENA44.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344
Developed Economies434.228473.368473.768446.569298.051372.353395.287386.893387.074410.838395.751395.076407.245411.158416.122
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)602.002660.723750.165783.791854.638943.0831022.9821058.6651157.5271138.8921108.4171124.7171188.1671246.7271265.113
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China254.530283.059331.739336.930303.195355.502381.759398.560416.081428.124436.077443.697451.337465.687484.073
World excl. BRIC602.715657.374691.586672.546499.950599.501639.673643.703658.175694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.356
Developing Asia420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.526
Developing Asia excl. China72.68176.86198.01399.313103.612118.388128.439137.019142.857151.217161.335176.169178.215188.649201.486
ASEAN (5)36.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04462.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266
Developed Asia150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.102
Northern Europe82.95592.67599.12794.09062.71577.35384.78978.93578.84381.20481.43884.19486.65087.49988.900
Southern Europe58.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.39940.09142.04543.67144.352
Middle East excl. Iran20.86922.55425.31632.44828.47128.97030.13431.76632.91634.63434.09633.98233.36634.00334.663
MENA excl. Iran30.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.78153.28254.888
GCC14.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.30724.73125.208
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa4.8946.6587.3949.5648.6198.95810.56410.67611.3319.8938.6588.8319.096
World excl. China and EU521.594564.864602.459596.946479.997581.191620.053644.770660.775690.015678.097681.159695.565710.262730.805
European Union (13)25.52182631.29346535.91219934.25596821.73002626.16497928.8705726.752898327.19631630.809226631.893854233.329187434.322440735.414445729736.1388784287
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)5.5426.5126.61294998787.27465231215.5228847.6023928.3787049.18963088.9559.49110.3219.68593159.9779810.219030710.5255616
Mercosur23.23626.58430.53432.434268529324.70458133.91858834.49444534.926740836.41414433.118719428.857149923.661560425.099464226.233523827.6056054
North Africa11.5969911.2433412.1181415.42320.0458916.66415.497618.708620.1700521.5970522.05722.74621.53930622.46978323.455293
Sub-Saharan Africa10.70147812.78431111.84986914.56457713.9514714.22441516.25259115.79359116.62508114.86312713.36437613.521677313.876215619
presentation
2017
1,595.4million tonnes,5.0%/ 2.6%*growth
2018 (forecasts)
1,657.9million tonnes,3.9%/ 2.1%*growth
2019 (forecasts)
1,681.2million tonnes,1.4%growth
Regional summarySteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)
5
-8-6-4-202468
10
EuropeanUnion (28)
Other Europe CIS NAFTA Central &South
America
Africa Middle East DevelopedAsia
DevelopingAsia excl.
China
China World
% 2017* 2018* 2019
2019 (Mt):
169.4 42.5 55.3 144.7 45.1 37.3 55.1 142.1 781.0 1 681.2201.5
*- Series based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics
2017 2018 2019 17/16 18/17 19/18 2019 as % of 2007
World 1 595.4 1 657.9 1 681.2 5.0/ 2.6* 3.9/ 2.1* 1.4 137.4
Developed Economies 407.2 411.2 416.1 3.1 1.0 1.2 87.8Emerging & Developing Economies excl. China
451.3 465.7 484.1 1.7 3.2 3.9 145.9
China 736.8 781.0 781.0 8.2/ 3.0* 6.0/ 2.0* 0.0 186.7
Mt %
db
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Austria3.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.411
Belgium-Luxembourg4.6005.5005.6005.4004.1004.6115.0344.2484.1914.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.741
Czech Republic5.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472
Finland2.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942
France14.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.100
Germany35.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.900
Hungary2.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.750
Italy31.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854
Netherlands3.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.641
Poland8.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.300
Slovak Republic1.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638
Slovenia1.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.020
Spain20.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563
Sweden4.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.183
United Kingdom12.54614.14314.31613.0337.8789.89410.2259.6479.59310.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.759
Rest of EU (28)16.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.117
European Union (28)167.164191.563203.048186.553121.249146.664156.992140.683142.380148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.391
European Union (15)141.642160.269167.136152.29799.519120.499128.122113.930115.184118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.252
Turkey18.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754
Rest of Other Europe5.7227.2165.3766.2985.1395.2445.7285.5905.6056.2385.7176.6296.5256.6546.762
Other Europe24.16228.43829.14627.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.516
Kazakhstan2.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.823
Russia29.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.193
Ukraine5.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.772
Rest of CIS4.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.501
CIS41.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.289
Canada16.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252
Mexico15.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.239
United States105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177
NAFTA137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.668
Argentina3.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.069
Brazil16.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.360
Chile2.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.860
Colombia2.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.761
Peru1.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905
Venezuela2.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.511
Rest of C & S America4.1084.5685.6865.8304.3044.7754.9645.4036.7747.1137.3637.0897.1957.3937.592
Central & South America32.59137.34442.62245.33934.29045.93247.38149.05551.68449.25846.07339.93341.77343.20045.058
Algeria2.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047
Egypt4.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.567
Morocco1.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246
South Africa4.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.780
Rest of Africa5.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.691
Africa19.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.332
Iran14.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.456
Saudi Arabia7.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263
United Arab Emirates4.9946.4977.71212.0926.2416.6286.8337.0446.8207.1497.1367.8337.9318.0708.069
Rest of the Middle East8.4098.1619.18610.74312.22411.62211.30112.18212.79613.38513.46013.94913.60113.96914.331
Middle East34.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.119
587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040
China347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040
India39.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65275.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.287
Indonesia7.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.417
Japan76.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.800
Malaysia6.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.017
Philippines3.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241
Singapore3.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.750
South Korea47.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725
Taiwan, China19.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588
Thailand13.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82917.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.964
Vietnam5.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.628
Rest of Asia0.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.172
Asia570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021,026.4251,011.133977.4941,000.5631,058.4541,110.4731,124.627
Australia6.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.052
New Zealand0.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.820
Other Oceania0.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.364
Oceania7.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.236
Asia & Oceania578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321,033.2531,018.713984.9181,007.5101,065.0131,117.7651,131.863
3.0002.0000.000
World1,036.2301,134.0911,223.9321,230.3601,152.6891,315.4361,418.2681,445.5571,544.6011,549.7301,504.1681,519.7931,595.4121,657.8861,681.235
World excl. China688.758756.427805.507783.499601.246727.855777.045785.452803.155838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.195
BRIC433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879
MENA44.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344
Developed Economies434.228473.368473.768446.569298.051372.353395.287386.893387.074410.838395.751395.076407.245411.158416.122
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)602.002660.723750.165783.791854.638943.0831,022.9821,058.6651,157.5271,138.8921,108.4171,124.7171,188.1671,246.7271,265.113
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China254.530283.059331.739336.930303.195355.502381.759398.560416.081428.124436.077443.697451.337465.687484.073
World excl. BRIC602.715657.374691.586672.546499.950599.501639.673643.703658.175694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.356
Developing Asia420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.526
Developing Asia excl. China72.68176.86198.01399.313103.612118.388128.439137.019142.857151.217161.335176.169178.215188.649201.486
ASEAN (5)36.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04462.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266
Developed Asia150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.102
Northern Europe82.95592.67599.12794.09062.71577.35384.78978.93578.84381.20481.43884.19486.65087.49988.900
Southern Europe58.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.39940.09142.04543.67144.352
Middle East excl. Iran20.86922.55425.31632.44828.47128.97030.13431.76632.91634.63434.09633.98233.36634.00334.663
MENA excl. Iran30.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.78153.28254.888
GCC14.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.30724.73125.208
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa4.8946.6587.3949.5648.6198.95810.56410.67611.3319.8938.6588.8319.096
World excl. China and EU521.594564.864602.459596.946479.997581.191620.053644.770660.775690.015678.097681.159695.565710.262730.805
European Union (13)25.52231.29335.91234.25621.73026.16528.87126.75327.19630.80931.89433.32934.32235.41436.139
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)5.5426.5126.6137.2755.5237.6028.3799.1908.9559.49110.3219.6869.97810.21910.526
Mercosur23.23626.58430.53432.43424.70533.91934.49434.92736.41433.11928.85723.66225.09926.23427.606
North Africa11.59711.24312.11815.42320.04616.66415.49818.70920.17021.59722.05722.74621.53922.47023.455
Sub-Saharan Africa10.70112.78411.85014.56513.95114.22416.25315.79416.62514.86313.36413.52213.876
presentation
Mt%
20172018201917/1618/1719/182019 as % of 2007
World1,595.41,657.91,681.25.0/ 2.6*3.9/ 2.1*1.4137.4
Developed Economies407.2411.2416.13.11.01.287.8
Emerging & Developing Economies excl. China451.3465.7484.11.73.23.9145.9
China736.8781.0781.08.2/ 3.0*6.0/ 2.0*0.0186.7
Developments in China Mt %2017 2018 2019 17/16 18/17 19/18 2019 as % of 2007
World 1 595.4 1 657.9 1 681.2 5.0/ 2.6* 3.9/ 2.1* 1.4 137.4China 736.8 781.0 781.0 8.2/ 3.0* 6.0/ 2.0* 0.0 186.7
*- Series based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics
In 2018, despite decelerating economy and poor industrial performance, mild stimulus on real estate supported steel demand, but not as high as nominal growth rate suggests.
In 2019, stimulus measures to finetune the economy are expected to boost steel demand. Upside risk from the effect of stimulus is noted.
China Steel Using Sectors Index
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
GDP & FAI Growth
GDP(LHS)
Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)
6
db
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Austria3.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.411
Belgium-Luxembourg4.6005.5005.6005.4004.1004.6115.0344.2484.1914.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.741
Czech Republic5.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472
Finland2.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942
France14.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.100
Germany35.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.900
Hungary2.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.750
Italy31.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854
Netherlands3.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.641
Poland8.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.300
Slovak Republic1.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638
Slovenia1.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.020
Spain20.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563
Sweden4.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.183
United Kingdom12.54614.14314.31613.0337.8789.89410.2259.6479.59310.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.759
Rest of EU (28)16.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.117
European Union (28)167.164191.563203.048186.553121.249146.664156.992140.683142.380148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.391
European Union (15)141.642160.269167.136152.29799.519120.499128.122113.930115.184118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.252
Turkey18.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754
Rest of Other Europe5.7227.2165.3766.2985.1395.2445.7285.5905.6056.2385.7176.6296.5256.6546.762
Other Europe24.16228.43829.14627.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.516
Kazakhstan2.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.823
Russia29.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.193
Ukraine5.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.772
Rest of CIS4.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.501
CIS41.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.289
Canada16.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252
Mexico15.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.239
United States105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177
NAFTA137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.668
Argentina3.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.069
Brazil16.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.360
Chile2.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.860
Colombia2.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.761
Peru1.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905
Venezuela2.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.511
Rest of C & S America4.1084.5685.6865.8304.3044.7754.9645.4036.7747.1137.3637.0897.1957.3937.592
Central & South America32.59137.34442.62245.33934.29045.93247.38149.05551.68449.25846.07339.93341.77343.20045.058
Algeria2.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047
Egypt4.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.567
Morocco1.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246
South Africa4.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.780
Rest of Africa5.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.691
Africa19.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.332
Iran14.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.456
Saudi Arabia7.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263
United Arab Emirates4.9946.4977.71212.0926.2416.6286.8337.0446.8207.1497.1367.8337.9318.0708.069
Rest of the Middle East8.4098.1619.18610.74312.22411.62211.30112.18212.79613.38513.46013.94913.60113.96914.331
Middle East34.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.119
587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040
China347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040
India39.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65275.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.287
Indonesia7.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.417
Japan76.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.800
Malaysia6.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.017
Philippines3.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241
Singapore3.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.750
South Korea47.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725
Taiwan, China19.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588
Thailand13.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82917.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.964
Vietnam5.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.628
Rest of Asia0.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.172
Asia570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021,026.4251,011.133977.4941,000.5631,058.4541,110.4731,124.627
Australia6.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.052
New Zealand0.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.820
Other Oceania0.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.364
Oceania7.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.236
Asia & Oceania578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321,033.2531,018.713984.9181,007.5101,065.0131,117.7651,131.863
3.0002.0000.000
World1,036.2301,134.0911,223.9321,230.3601,152.6891,315.4361,418.2681,445.5571,544.6011,549.7301,504.1681,519.7931,595.4121,657.8861,681.235
World excl. China688.758756.427805.507783.499601.246727.855777.045785.452803.155838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.195
BRIC433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879
MENA44.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344
Developed Economies434.228473.368473.768446.569298.051372.353395.287386.893387.074410.838395.751395.076407.245411.158416.122
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)602.002660.723750.165783.791854.638943.0831,022.9821,058.6651,157.5271,138.8921,108.4171,124.7171,188.1671,246.7271,265.113
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China254.530283.059331.739336.930303.195355.502381.759398.560416.081428.124436.077443.697451.337465.687484.073
World excl. BRIC602.715657.374691.586672.546499.950599.501639.673643.703658.175694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.356
Developing Asia420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.526
Developing Asia excl. China72.68176.86198.01399.313103.612118.388128.439137.019142.857151.217161.335176.169178.215188.649201.486
ASEAN (5)36.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04462.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266
Developed Asia150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.102
Northern Europe82.95592.67599.12794.09062.71577.35384.78978.93578.84381.20481.43884.19486.65087.49988.900
Southern Europe58.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.39940.09142.04543.67144.352
Middle East excl. Iran20.86922.55425.31632.44828.47128.97030.13431.76632.91634.63434.09633.98233.36634.00334.663
MENA excl. Iran30.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.78153.28254.888
GCC14.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.30724.73125.208
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa4.8946.6587.3949.5648.6198.95810.56410.67611.3319.8938.6588.8319.096
World excl. China and EU521.594564.864602.459596.946479.997581.191620.053644.770660.775690.015678.097681.159695.565710.262730.805
European Union (13)25.52231.29335.91234.25621.73026.16528.87126.75327.19630.80931.89433.32934.32235.41436.139
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)5.5426.5126.6137.2755.5237.6028.3799.1908.9559.49110.3219.6869.97810.21910.526
Mercosur23.23626.58430.53432.43424.70533.91934.49434.92736.41433.11928.85723.66225.09926.23427.606
North Africa11.59711.24312.11815.42320.04616.66415.49818.70920.17021.59722.05722.74621.53922.47023.455
Sub-Saharan Africa10.70112.78411.85014.56513.95114.22416.25315.79416.62514.86313.36413.52213.876
presentation
Mt%
20172018201917/1618/1719/182019 as % of 2007
World1,595.41,657.91,681.25.0/ 2.6*3.9/ 2.1*1.4137.4
China736.8781.0781.08.2/ 3.0*6.0/ 2.0*0.0186.7
Developments in key regions (1/4) Asia India (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 7.5% & 7.3%)
The Indian economy is returning to faster growth overcoming the twin shocks of demonetization and GST. Steel demand will be supported by plentiful infrastructure projects, strong consumption and recovery of private investment.
ASEAN 5: (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 3.8% & 6.2%)After a contraction in 2017 due to stock building and delay of construction projects, ASEAN steel demand resumed high growth in 2018 backed by infrastructure development and industrial growth. Outlook for 2018/19 remains strong. Elections, deceleration of the global economy and trade tensions raise challenges.
Japan: (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 0.2% & 0.5%)Steel demand got boost from favorable investment environment and public projects and the effect of consumption tax in 2018, but outlook will weaken as these effects fade and export environment worsens.
Korea: (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: -4.1% & 1.1%)Steel demand contraction is expected due to weak steel using sector activities, in particular auto and shipbuilding. Toughened real estate measures and deteriorating trade environment will put additional pressure on steel demand despite some recovery in shipbuilding.
7
Developments in key regions (2/4) EU (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 2.2% & 1.7% ) EU economy which passed the peak of business cycle during 2018 gets additional
pressure from trade tensions and Brexit uncertainties. Industrial production is decelerating sharply especially in export dependent economies. Investment and construction is also expected to moderate with falling confidence.
NAFTA US (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 2.3% & 1.3% )
US economy is likely to decelerate in 2019/20 to potential growth, with the effect of fiscal stimulus fading. Steel demand growth is expected to decelerate in 2019/20 with most steel using sectors slowing down. Investment in the energy sector is also expected to decelerate. Mexico (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -1.9% & 1.2% )
In 2018, uncertainties surrounding the NAFTA renegotiation and the election took toll on Mexican steel demand with declining auto production. Weak mining investment, fiscal budget constraint and slowing US economy along with policy uncertainties are likely to continue to constrain Mexico’s steel demand in 2019/20.
8
Developments in key regions (3/4) South America Broadly shared recovery of South American economies is taking place despite
deteriorating external environment, but faces policy uncertainties.
Brazil (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : 4.9% & 6.2% )
Despite the disruptions from the truckers’ strike, recovery in steel demand continued in 2018. Despite uncertainties on reform policies, confidence is high and construction sector is expected to recover to support continued recovery in 2019&20.
CIS and Other Europe Russia (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -1.1% & 0.3% )
Steady recovery in steel demand continues, but at a slow speed, due to structural issues and geopolitical tensions.
Turkey (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -2.3% & 1.5% )
Currency crisis of August 2018 continues drag down the economy and 2019 will continue to see contraction of steel demand.
9
Developments in key regions (4/4) MENA
GCC (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : 1.7% & 1.9% )
While economic diversification continues, fiscal consolidation continues to constrain steel demand with scaled down construction projects .
North Africa (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -1.9% & 1.2% )
Outlook for North Africa improves, with recovery in oil price, infrastructure projects and investment friendly policies. Egypt is expected to rebound strongly with improved fundamentals following structural reforms and infrastructure spending on energy and housing development
Iran (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : 2.5% & 0% )
Reinstatement of US sanctions weakens the economy and hence steel demand outlook.
10
Revisions from October 2018 forecastsSteel demand, finished steel (October 2018 and April 2019)
Mt % Mt ∆ growth rate ∆ accel.
2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 20/19
World 1 657.9 1 681.2 3.9/ 2.1* 1.4EU (28) 166.6 169.4 2.2 1.7Other Europe 41.9 42.5 -1.6 1.5CIS 54.8 55.3 1.4 0.9NAFTA 143.2 144.7 1.7 1.0C&S America 43.2 45.1 3.4 4.3Africa 36.0 37.3 3.1 3.7Middle East 54.5 55.1 2.1 1.2Asia & Oceania 1 117.8 1 131.9 5.0 1.3
China 781.0 781.0 6.0/ 2.0* 0.0Developing Asia excl. China
188.6 201.5 5.9 6.8
Developed Asia 140.8 142.1 -1.8 0.9
SRO October 2018 SRO April 2019
11
*- Series based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics
*
*
db
201420152016201720182019
Austria3.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.4106
Belgium-Luxembourg4.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.741141
Czech Republic6.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472067
Finland1.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942
France12.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.1
Germany39.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.9
Hungary2.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.75
Italy21.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854369
Netherlands3.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.6408204
Poland12.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.3
Slovak Republic2.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638418
Slovenia0.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.02
Spain11.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563016
Sweden3.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.1825542
United Kingdom10.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.7589279
Rest of EU (28)12.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.1167805556
European Union (28)148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.3906940556
European Union (15)118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.251815627
Turkey30.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754
Rest of Other Europe6.2385.7176.6296.5256.6546.7617965915
Other Europe37.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.5157965915
Kazakhstan2.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.82332507
Russia43.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.192794
Ukraine4.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.7719839
Rest of CIS7.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.5011039596
CIS57.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.2892069296
Canada15.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252
Mexico23.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.2389079
United States106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177
NAFTA146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.6679079
Argentina5.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.0688
Brazil25.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.36
Chile2.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.86
Colombia3.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.7605616
Peru2.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905
Venezuela2.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.5113705
Rest of C & S America7.1137.3637.0897.1957.3937.5924534812
Central & South America49.25846.07339.93341.77343.20045.0581855812
Algeria6.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047473
Egypt10.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.56672
Morocco2.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246443
South Africa5.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.78
Rest of Africa13.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.690872619
Africa37.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.331508619
Iran19.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.455925
Saudi Arabia14.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263
United Arab Emirates7.1497.1367.8337.9318.0708.069
Rest of the Middle East13.38513.46013.94913.60113.96914.3306437089
Middle East54.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.1185687089
710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.0398
China710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.0398
India75.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.286619
Indonesia12.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.416936
Japan67.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.8
Malaysia10.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.016731
Philippines7.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241053
Singapore3.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.75
South Korea55.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725
Taiwan, China19.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588
Thailand17.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.963952
Vietnam14.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.627604
Rest of Asia15.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.171749339
Asia1011.133977.4941000.5631058.4541110.4731124.6274443391
Australia6.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.0519186
New Zealand0.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.82
Other Oceania0.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.363892857
Oceania7.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.235811457
Asia & Oceania1018.713984.9181007.5101065.0131117.7651131.8632557961
3.0002.0000
World1549.7301504.1681519.7931595.4121657.8861681.2351241819
World excl. China838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.1953241819
BRIC855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879213
MENA73.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344313
Developed Economies410.838395.751395.076407.245411.158416.1218772662
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1138.8921108.4171124.7171188.1671246.7271265.1132469158
Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China428.124436.077443.697451.337465.687484.0734469158
World excl. BRIC694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.3559111819
Developing Asia861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.5258562915
Developing Asia excl. China151.217161.335176.169178.215188.649201.4860562915
ASEAN (5)62.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266276
Developed Asia149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.1015880475
Northern Europe81.203853581.437681284.19369977786.65087.49988.8997940677
Southern Europe36.93464940.39918840.09131242.04543.67144.3520215593
Middle East excl. Iran34.634037334.09602533.98192433.36634.00334.6626437089
MENA excl. Iran53.618318353.22680353.46214151.78153.28254.888388
GCC25.722418325.30852824.628324.30724.73125.207777
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa10.67624911.3312289.8930428.6588.8319.096215619
World excl. China and EU690.01476384678.09749545681.15896133695.565710.262730.8046301263
European Union (13)30.809226631.893854233.329187434.32235.41436.1388784287
The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)9.49110.3219.68593159.97810.21910.5255616
Mercosur33.118719428.857149923.661560425.09926.23427.6056054
North Africa21.5970522.05722.74621.53922.47023.455293
Sub-Saharan Africa15.79359116.62508114.86312713.36413.52213.876215619
presentation
Mt%Mt ∆growth rate ∆accel.
2018201920182019201820192018201920/19
SRO October 2018SRO April 2019
World1,657.91,681.2!3.9/ 2.1*1.4
EU (28)166.6169.42.21.7
Other Europe41.942.5-1.61.5
CIS54.855.31.40.9
NAFTA143.2144.71.71.0
C&S America43.245.13.44.3
Africa36.037.33.13.7
Middle East54.555.12.11.2
Asia & Oceania1,117.81,131.95.01.3
China781.0781.06.0/ 2.0*0.0
Developing Asia excl. China188.6201.55.96.8
Developed Asia140.8142.1-1.80.9
Long term steel demand outlook
12
Global steel demand expected to grow, very slowly Shift in global economic & political environment + megatrend forces
will have further impact on steel demand The impact of circular economy thinking is like to grow over time and
needs to be assessed carefully
Thank you for your attention.
13
For further information contact:
Dr Nae Hee Han | Director, Economic Studies and StatisticsWorld Steel [email protected] | T: +32 (0)2 702 8913 | worldsteel.org
worldsteel.org
Global Steel Market OutlookDisclaimer textKey observations:�Mild deceleration in steel demand amid elevated uncertaintiesGlobal overview�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)Regional summary�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)Developments in China�Developments in key regions (1/4)Developments in key regions (2/4)Developments in key regions (3/4)Developments in key regions (4/4)Slide Number 11Long term steel demand outlookSlide Number 13Slide Number 14