AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
GLOBAL OCEAN TRENDS
▪ More than 100 vessels are anchored and awaiting entry to the Port of
Shanghai – expect further impacts to the global supply chain.
▪ On-time performance for most carriers fell below 40% in September.
▪ Carriers continue to focus on yields and record profits, fueling
predictions that while shippers may see slight temporary relief, rates will
ultimately rise alongside capacity manipulation into 2022.
▪ Markets already ordering for the holiday season are facing numerous
final mile and supply chain constraints, which could increase port wait
times, tying up capacity at anchor.
▪ Shippers’ focus remains on near-term equipment and space availability
as conditions are expected to intensify through the beginning of 2022.
World Container Index Global Port Throughput Bunker
So
urc
e: D
rew
ry M
arin
e R
ese
arc
h
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
▪ Idle tonnage growth was noted in September; however, the increase was negligible. Carriers are still looking to implement
tonnage as demand remains very high.
▪ Approximately 176 ships accounting for 686,264 TEU are showing idle (2.8% of global capacity), some due to COVID-19
quarantine requirements.
▪ Nearly 90,000 TEUs launched with new vessels in September. Both MSC and Evergreen took delivery of Megamax vessels.
CAPACITY AND IDLE FLEET
Idle Fleet
Source: Drewry Marine ResearchSource: Alphaliner
Tonnage Inactive
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
OCEAN TRADE LANES
▪ With tonnage being redeployed consistently to the lucrative
head haul trades, second-tier trade lanes are feeling the
impact. For example, 50% of sailings were blanked on the
Far East to Middle East trade lane due to both congestion
and a lack of tonnage. Even with second-tier trade lanes
seeing record increases in rates, the head haul lanes
remain the primary target for carriers chasing record profits.
▪ Container supplies remain tight for imports to Europe and
North America from Asia-Pacific origins.
▪ U.S. ports are showing record throughput despite the highly
congested environment. To facilitate the U.S. market’s
ordering, LA and LGB have implemented extended hours in
an effort to manage backlogs.
▪ Faced with rising fuel costs and driver shortages, the United
Kingdom is calling for support in advance of the peak
season due to concerns that constricted throughput may
impact holiday orders.
Trade Lane Status Comments
TPEB to USEC Utilization 100%
TPEB to USWC Utilization 100%
CBP to N EurRate increases
expected
CBP to MED
SE Asia to N Eur
SE Asia to MED
ISC to US
N Eur to ISC Rate increases
expected
Trade Lane Status Comments
N Eur to APRate increases
expected
MED to AP
US to N Eur
US to MED
MED to USRates increases
are likely
N Eur to USRate increases
expected
US to ISC
Med to ISC Rate increases
expected
Available space; quick booking turn
time.
Capacity well utilized; some space
available.
Demand higher than supply; space
agreements challenged.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
OCEANCARRIER UPDATES
▪ MSC added Portland, Oregon on the U.S. West Coast, to its “Santana” service from
China. The new call was slotted ahead of Tacoma, Washington as the first U.S. port
inbound from the Far East.
▪ CMA CGM will improve its direct connections between India, Pakistan and the U.S.
East Coast. In late October, the French carrier will join Hapag-Lloyd as a vessel
provider on the “INDAMEX 2” service.
▪ Port congestion and operational disruptions in Northern Europe and North America
have compelled Maersk and MSC to adjust the schedule of the “TA2/NEUATL2”
service. The early October fleet addition of the 7,154-TEU Santa Rosa will enable the
service to turn in six weeks while adding Charleston, South Carolina to the rotation.
▪ Sea Lead Shipping has emerged as the vessel operator of the new twice-monthly Far
East-North Europe service from EShipping Gateways, a joint venture between OOCL
Logistics and JD Logistics (part of e-Commerce retailer JD.com).
▪ A terminal catering to feeder vessels will be constructed in Busan New Port in order
to cut trucking costs from Busan’s North Port. New Port is primarily used by mainline
operators as a port of call on the Asia-Europe and transpacific routes. Construction is
to be completed by 2026 and facilitate upwards of 3.5 million TEU annually.
2M
MSC
Maersk
OOCL
CMA CGM
COSCO Shipping
Evergreen Line
Ocean Alliance THE Alliance
Hapag-Lloyd
ONE
Yang Ming
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICS
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
MEXICO AND TRANSBORDER
Transborder Crossings
▪ Tijuana and Mexicali – No impacts. Current crossing times are SB one hour and
NB two hours.
▪ Juarez – No impacts. Current crossing times are SB one hour and NB two hours.
▪ Laredo – No impacts. Current crossing times are SB one hour and NB two hours.
Need 48 to 72 hours for transfers along the border.
View up-to-the-minute border wait times: https://bwt.cbp.gov/details/06240201/COV
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICS
Over the Road/FTL
▪ Capacity from Mexico to the United States remains extremely strained.
▪ AIT recommends advance booking of one week, if possible.
▪ Exiting Mexico, direct trailers are at a premium, with the average cost holding at
more than $5,500.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
Ocean market remains impacted for importers
▪ Capacity and equipment shortages remain challenging for Mexico consignees.
▪ Turn times for vessels at the ports of Ensenada and Manzanillo are stable.
▪ Inland capacity continues to have the greatest impact for container delivery
times, with capacity strained for both rail and trucking.
MEXICO AND TRANSBORDER
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICS
Air and Ocean Updates
Air capacity
▪ Sufficient capacity for exports to Europe, the United States and Asia.
▪ The Mexico-Brazil lane is the most congested due to high demand.
▪ Increasing air freight demand at the border.
▪ Mexican airports are helping to ease U.S. West Coast port congestion.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
AIR FREIGHT OVERVIEW
▪ Demand remains strong.
▪ Global cargo capacity is still constrained
due to the lack of belly space on
international passenger flights. This
translates into elevated load factors.
▪ Capacity is expected to increase in
November when the U.S. eases
restrictions for international visitors.
▪ With the boost to capacity, revenues are
also expected to increase for airlines.
▪ Air carriers continue to see trade growth
as demand outweighs supply. With
ocean carriers continuing to command
record high rates, air has become a
viable option for more shippers.
Air Cargo Growth v. Global Goods Trade
Sourc
e:
IAT
A A
ir C
arg
o M
ark
et
Analy
sis
GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
Sourc
e:
Seabury
Inte
l
International Air Cargo Capacity Growth 2021 vs. 2019▪ Air capacity recovery has reduced its deficit to
less than 10% below 2019 levels.
▪ Capacity is expected to be gradually added to the
market in November; however, we expect rates
will continue to rise.
▪ Recovery is being hindered by COVID-19
containment measures in China (mainly
Shanghai, where capacity reduction is down 19%
from the first week of September). This is likely to
increase further as cargo is relocated.
▪ Carriers remain focused on prioritizing higher
yielding cargo opportunities and premium rates to
facilitate loading.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
AIR TRADE LANES
Trade Lane Status Comments
AP to US Utilization 98%
US to AP Utilization 98%
Europe to APStrained capacity
ex U.K.
AP to Europe Utilization 98%
Europe to US
Destination ATL has
slightly more
capacity
US to EuropeUtilization 98%
Trade Lane Status Comments
US to LATAM Utilization 95%
LATAM to US Utilization 90%
Europe to
LATAM
Congestions from
DE and U.K.
LATAM to
EuropeUtilization 90%
India to US Utilization 100%
US to India Utilization 100%
Available space; quick booking turn
time.
Capacity well utilized; some space
available
Demand higher than supply; space
agreements challenged.
▪ Reduction of global capacity and increased rates out
of Asia in recent weeks are largely due to China’s
restrictions to curb the spread of the delta variant,
compounded by peak season.
▪ Some October and November charter prices from Asia
to the United States reached more than $2.5 million.
▪ Vietnam air freight traffic is strongly increasing after
the end of quarantine measures, with a growing
backlog. This is expected to impact the whole of Asia,
and shippers are already trucking to Hong Kong to find
space.
▪ Retail clients are buying charters in bulk ahead of
holiday demand.
▪ Congestion at U.S. destinations remains a challenge
with shortages of workers who break down cargo.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
AIRLINE UPDATES
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICS
CURRENT STATE
▪ COVID-19 outbreaks in Asia continue to impact the air market due to pressure on
ground-handling efficiencies. Expect rates to remain at high levels through the end of
the year.
▪ The Australia and U.S. governments have announced intentions to ease travel
restrictions. This will support stabilization of certain lanes, though major head haul
trade lanes are expected to remain volatile with capacity challenges.
▪ Charters are still a primary source of lift from the Asia-Pacific region. However,
backlogs are growing and expected to intensify due to China lockdowns and
pressure from ocean shippers seeking urgent air capacity.
▪ Due to shipments to China being suspended as a result of the pandemic, some
European and North American exporters are facing issues with cargo being left
behind.
FUTURE STATE
▪ The European air market is projected to remain free-sales driven with frequent
fluctuations.
▪ Additional rate hikes are anticipated in Q4 due to seasonal pressures.
▪ High volumes and a shortage of supply chain components in North America and
Europe are expected to generate a highly intense peak season.
▪ In Asia, expect additional congestion leading to new price increases ahead of the
holiday season.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021 AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICS
DirectionCapacity
Development
Rate
Trend
Equipment
Availability
Europe to China
China to Europe
▪ If route and corridor are flexible,
regular space can be acquired for
Westbound traffic.
▪ Westbound rates are expected to
hold near September levels with
slight increases possible.
▪ Eastbound service to Suzhou has
weekly departures and can
accommodate freight at favorable
rates.
SILK ROAD
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
NORTH AMERICAN TRANSPORTATION
▪ Truck rates are rising sharply as demand tightens into the fourth quarter amid shrinking capacity.
▪ As of Sept. 1, peak season surcharges are in effect for all major ground carriers through the end of the year.
▪ AIT’s air/ground hybrid service provides a third-day shipping alternative.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
NORTH AMERICAN TRANSPORTATION
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICS
▪ The load-to-truck ratio is
exclusively calculated by the dry van full
truck load availability and varies by
state.
▪ Truck capacity is tightening
as projected; this trend will continue
through the fourth quarter.
▪ West Coast truck capacity is challenged
due to ocean transload congestion, with
ships anchored and awaiting availability.
▪ AIT’s truck network adds
controlled capacity in response to rising
costs and limited space with carriers.
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021 AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICS
For more information on U.S. import-related questions please contact
According to China’s General Administration of Customs, random inspections
will now take place on 20 categories of import and export commodities.
Imported goods
▪ Dishwashers, air purifiers, electronic toilets, food waste disposal systems,
induction cookers, printers, stationery, simulation accessories, interior car parts,
clothing, helmets, child safety seats, paper or cardboard plates, saucers, ports,
cups and similar products.
Exported goods
▪ Holiday string lights, LED lighting sources, children’s bicycles, children’s
scooters, electric strollers, toys, plastic food contact products, etc.
Learn more
CUSTOMS BROKERAGE
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
▪ The September U.S. ISM
Manufacturing Index measured 59.90,
up slightly from 59.50 in August and
from 56.00 one year ago.
▪ Retailers face uncertainty over the
scale of online orders versus in-store
sales due to the delta variant.
▪ The third quarter shows a decline in
consumer confidence and spending
as product bottlenecks impact growth.
▪ While analysts project a large decline
in the GDP growth rate in 2022, an
increase of capacity across all modes
isn’t expected until well into the
second quarter.
GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
AIT WORLDWIDE LOGISTICSGLOBAL TRANSPORTATION MARKET REPORT | OCTOBER 2021
TURN INSIGHTS INTO ACTION WITH AIT
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