Appendix
HAMILTON REFERENCES EXTERIOR TO The Federalist
Code Volume Abbreviation number Title number Pages
Cont.-1 101 The Continentalist No. I I 243-248 Cont.-2 102 The Continentalist No. II I 248-253 Pac.-1 111 Pacificus No. I IV 432-444 Pac.-2 112 Pacificus No. II IV 445-455 Pac.-3 113 Pacificus No. III IV 456-460
Lodge, H. C., editor (1904). The works of Alexander Hamilton (Federal Edition). G. P. Putnam's Sons, New York and London. I and IV.
MADISON REFERENCES EXTERIOR TO The Federalist
Abbreviation: Neutral Trade
Title: An Examination of the British Doctrine, Which Subjects to Capture A Neutral Trade, Not Open in Time of Peace
Editor: Hunt, VII
Code Code number Pages number
201 204-211 211 202 214-225 212 203 226-235 213 204 235-243 214 205 243-251 215 206 251-259 216 207 259-270 217 208 270-278 218 209 278-285 219 210 285-293 220
283
Pages
293-301 302-310 310-319 319-325 325-334 334-340 340-349 349-357 357-366 366-375
284 APPENDIX
MADISON REFERENCES EXTERIOR TO The Federalist (cont.)
Code Abbreviation number Title Editor Pages
N.A.-1 121 The North American No. I Brant 571-580 N.A.-2 12~ The North American No. II Brant 580-587 Helv-1 131 Helvidius Number I (Congress) 611-621 Helv-2 132 Helvidius Number II (Congress) 621-630 Helv-3 133 Helvidius Nuinber III (Congress) 630-640 Helv-4 134 Helvidius Number IV (Congress) 64~645
Helv-5 135 Helviditis Number V (Congress) 646-654 M-1 301 Population and Emigration Hunt, VI 43-66 l\Ii:-2 315 Consolidation Hunt, VI 67-69 M-3 315 Public Opinion Hunt, VI 70 M-4 302 Money Hunt, VI 71-80 M-5 316 Government Hunt, VI 80-82 M-6 313 Charters Hunt, YI 83-85 M-7 314 Parties Hunt, VI 86 M-8 311 British Government Hunt, VI 87-88 M-9 311 Universal Peace Hunt, VI 88-91 N-1 315 Government of the Hunt, VI 91-93
United States N-2 312 Spirit of Governments Hunt, VI 93-95 N-3 314 Republican Distribution Hunt, VI 96-99
of Citizens N-4 316 Fashion Hunt, VI 99-101 N-5 312 Property Hunt, VI 101-103 N-6 314 The Union. Who Are Its Hunt, VI 104-105
Real Friends? N-7 313 A Candid State of Parties Hunt, VI 106-119 N-8 316 Who ,Are the Best Keepers Hunt, VI 12~123
of the Peopie's Liberties? N-9 141 Observations on the Hunt, V 284-294
"Draught of a Constitution for Virginia"
311 is formed by pooling M-8 and M-9; 312, N-2 and N-5; 313, M-6 and N-7; 314, M-7, N...:.3, and N-6; 315, M-2, M-3, and N-1; 316, M-5, N-4, and N-8.
Brant, 1., editor (1946). Two neglected Madison letters. The William and Mary Quarterly, III, 569-587.
Published by order of Congress (1865). Letters and other writings of James Madison. J. B. Lippincott & Co., Philadelphia. I, 1769-1793.
Hunt, G., editor (1904). The writings of James Madison. G. P. Putnam's Sons, New York and London. V, 1787-1790.
Hunt, G., editor (1906). The writings of James Madison. G. P. Putnam's Sons, New York and London. VI, 179~1802.
Hunt, G., editor (1908). The writings of James Madison. G. P. Putnam's Sons, New York and London. V1I, 1803-1807.
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Index
Symbols are listed under the entry, "Symbols." For additional names of individuals see Acknowledgments at the close of each Preface.
Adair, Douglass 2, 6, 10, 16, 285 Adams, L. La Mar 277, 285 Adjusted 2 x 2 tables
for high-frequency words 218-220 for low-frequency words 221
Adjustment factor in penalty study 183, 189-190
Agarkar, G. G. 273, 274 Anderson, T. W. 57,285 And Quiet Flows the Don 272, 273 Anscombe, F. J. 75, 97, 98, 285 Antilogs, table of 69 Approximations
need for 92-93, 119-120, 124, 266-267
to posterior expectations 138-154 to posterior modes and maximum
likelihood estimates 108-111 Aristotle 276, 277 Atlantic, The 39,243 Atwood, Angela 279 Authorship of the disputed Federalist
papers historical introduction 2-6 summary of results 263-264
Authorship problems conclusions 265 making simplified studies 249-251
Bacon, Francis 270,271 Bailey, Richard W. 268,269,272,
277,278,279,285,286
Bailey, S. A. 10, 285 Bayes'theorem 47-54,64, 112-113
for continuous variables 64 for discrete hypotheses 53-54 example of application 52-55 two stages of use 58-59, 112
Bayes, Thomas 1,285 Bayesian inference 1-2,50-51
abstract structure in classification problems 111-117
remarks and conclusions 264, 266-267
see also main study; robust Bayesian analysis
Beaton, Albert E. 43-44 Beckman, Bengt 287 Benson, Egbert 4 Benson lists 3,4, 5, 14 Berkson, Joseph 48-49,285 Beta distribution 63
291
of 7J 65,103 mean is a relative mode 107 in robust Bayesian analysis 219 role of the extreme tails 137 of T 63, 65, 103, 128
Bible, King James version 39,243 word rates for 244-248
Bible, The 270, 276, 277 Binomial dispersion index 24
frequency distribution of 28 Binomial distribution 23-24
fitted and compared to incidence distributions 24-28
292 INDEX
Blyman, Mary 212 Bona ventura 274 Bourne,E. G. 5, 252, 285 Bracketing the prior distribution
63-64, 1i6-117, 124 ff., 266 see also prior distributions; under-
lying constants Brainerd, Barron 269; 270, 271, 285 Brant, Irving 6, 284, 285 Brentano, C1. 274 Brewer 243, 286 Brougham, IIenry 274 Burr, Aaron 4 by
frequency distribution of rate 168 in penalty study 185-189 table of contributions to log odds
78
"Caesar" letters 251-252 Calibrating set of papers 200, 229
choice for weight-rate analysis 201 results for
in three-category analysis 237-238
in weight-rate analysis 207-:208 size relative to screening set 201
Carlson, Roger 215 Characteristic curve of composition
259 Charles XII (King of Sweden) 277 Cherry, L. L. 269, 287 Child, Sir Josiah 274 Classification parameter 111, 181 Classification problems
abstract structure 111 ff. conclusions 265-266 single vs. simultaneous 114
Cochran, William G. 155,286 Collocation 270, 274, 280 Combining evidence from several words
54-55 Commas, rate of 273, 274, 280 Composite Madison 195 Computer 268, 269
role of 269 UNIX 269
Conditional analysis 116-117 Contagious distributions 31,96 Contaminated normal distributions
214 Contextual dangers 18, 68, 249-250,
265-266 inadequate protection in secondary
studies 201,216,226, 236-237 introd.uced by Neutral Trade essays
·20-22 asymmetry of distribution of 'fJ
130-131 treatment in main study 68,
195-199 Cooke, Jacob E. 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 86,
286 Coolidge, Julian L. 47-49, 286 " Corrector" 5 Correlation a,nd dependence
in the abstract strUcture 111-116 between rates for different words
35-37 ; matrix for 11 words 161
between rates in successive blocks of text 23-28
effect on log odds 84, 155-163 frequency distribution of 36 multinomial 35 in the weight-rate study 200-201
Cumulants of the negative binomial distribution 94
Cut-points for rates rules for determining 231 table 232-233
D* 272,273 Damerau, Fred J, 281, 286 Darnell, A. C. 274,275,288 Davis, Miles 36,67,69, 105, 185 Delta method 139, 151
applied to sample moments 98, 127 Discriminant function 9, 200
assessing the results of 210-214 frequency distribution of 8 in the weight-rate analysis 201
Discrimination problems, see classification problems
Disputed authorships (Chapter 10) And Quiet Flow8 the Don 272, 273 Aristotle 276, 277 Bible, The 270, 276, 277 Economic history 274,275 forensic disputes 278-280 Howland will 279,280 Kesari 273,274 military history of Charles XII
277,278 Nachtwachen, Die 274 Shakespeare-Bacon 268,270,271 translations 277, 278, 281
"Disputed" papers 3-6 results for
main study 74-80,87 pilot study 14 robust Bayesian analysis 228 in summary 263-264 three-category analysis 241-242 weight-rate analysis 210-214
Distributional assumptions abstract structure 111-116 for discriminant functions 212-214 importance of careful study 264,
266 independence 103-104, 200-201 for parameters 103 for word frequencies 99, 118
Dolezel, Lobomir 269,285,286 Don Cossacks 272
Early Madison 195 Economic history 274, 275 Editing by Hamilton or Madison 15,
90 Ellegard, Alvar 269, 277, 279, 281,
286 Empirical Bayes procedures 115 enough
corrections to log odds approximation 144
counts of occurrences by individual paper 12-14
in the pilot study 11-14 table of contributions to log odds 79
Enumerations 257
INDEX 293
Erdelyi, A. 148, 153, 286 Expectations, approximate evaluation
of, 8ee posterior expectation; two-point formulas
Expected and observed log odds compared 173-176
Expected and observed penalties compared 185-190 defined 184
Exterior set of papers 11-13, 40, 283, 284
Farringdon, Jill 277, 278, 286 Farringdon, Michael 277,278,286 Federali8t, The 1 ff.
conclusions on authorship 263-264 edition used in present study 7 editions of
Cooke 2, 6, 86, 286 Gideon 4, 5, 14, 15, 286 Lodge 7,287 McLean 4, 83, 286 Modern Library 7, 286 Sesquicentennial 7, 286 Rossiter 6, 289 Wright 6, 289
history of the authorship dispute 2-6, 14-15
late Hamilton papers 83 8ee also disputed papers; editing by
Hamilton or Madison; joint papers; papers of known authorship
Felice 77, 252 Fielding, Henry 277,278 Final odds (of authorship) 50, 54-59,
69 ff., 100, 112-114, 118-119, 219-224
8ee log odds believability 88-91 effect of outrageous events on
90-91 justification within the model
88-90 in the robust Bayesian analysis
219-229 tables of, see log odds
294 INDEX
Fisher, R. A. 1,97,286 Fix, Evelyn 286 Ford, Paul Leicester 5, 251, 286 Forensic disputes 268, 278-280 Fowles, John 270 Francis, Ivor S. 36, 126, 140, 165,
215, 235 Francis, W. Nelson 281, 287 Freeman, Murray F. 157,287 Frequency distributions
empirical (tables and figures) of adjectives 8 of category of use of of 255 of X2 statistics in tests of
binomiality 28 of correlations between word rates
36 of estimates of 11 131 of estimates of (J' and T 62 of incidence, for each of 51 words
25-27 of a measure of discriminating
ability 42 of nouns 8 of numbers of Hamilton papers
with a low rate 218 of occurrences, for each of 51
words 29-30; for each of 10 words 32-33
of one- and two-letter words 8
of values of a discriminant function 8
of word length 258,260-261 of word rates: also 167; an
167; both 171; by 17,168; commonly 18; from 17 ; innovation 18; of 168; on 169; the 8; there 169; this 170; though 172; to 17,170; upon 19, 171; war 19
theoretical (tables) fitted binomial frequencies for
incidence of each of 51 words 25-27
fitted negative binomial frequencies for occurrences of each of 10 words 32-33
fitted Poisson frequencies for occurrences of each of 10 words 32-33
Poisson with mean 2,31 Poisson and negative binomial
compared 34 two Poisson's compared 153
Friedman, E. A. 39, 288 Fries, C. C. 39, 287 Function words 17,39,280
list 38
Gallaher, Miriam 256 Gamma distribution 65, 95, 96
of 6 65,103 mean is a relative mode 107
Gill, Steinar 287 Gokhale, M. K. 273, 287 Good, I. J. 191, 287 Gore, A. P. 273, 287 Granger, Gideon 5 Green, Hetty 279 Gustavsson, Sven 287
Hamilton, Alexander 1 if. word rates for 244-248 see also authorship of the disputed
Federalist papers Hamilton, John Church 5, 287 Handlin, Joanna F. 253 Hanley Concordance 243, 287 Harris, Emily 279 Harrison, P. N. 276, 287 Hearst, Patricia 279 Herdan, G. 269,287 High-frequency words
in concordances 269 in the main study
contributions to log odds 78 in the robust Bayesian analysis
definition and list 217 method of obtaining log odds
217-220 distribution of 2 x 2 tables 218
see also words Historical information
role in formal analysis 113-114
Hodges, J. L., Jr. 286, 287 Hoel, P. G. 24, 287 Hoffman,E.T.A. 274 Homogeneity problems 275-277 Hoodes, Robert A. 43 Howland, Sylvia 279 Howland will 268, 279, 280 Hunt, G. 283-284
Importance of a word in the main study 55-56,58,
158-159; table 158 in the weight-rate analysis
202-204; table 204 Independence
in the abstract structure 111, 115 of historical evidence 113 in the main study 99 of observations 274, 275 of variables 280 in the weight-rate analysis 200, 201 see also correlation and dependence
Index of performance in screening study
41-42 word index 42-43
Inefficient estimates 111 Information
Fisher 97 Shannon 191
Ingalls, Theodore S. 44 Initial odds (of authorship} 50,54-59,
. 112-114 Integrals, approximate evaluation of,
see posterior expectation
"Jackknife" technique 126-127 James, Henry 270 James, William 39 Jay,John 2,3,4,5,243
comparison with Hamilton and Madison 248
text used 243 word rates for 244-248
Jefferson, Thomas 3,5,9 Jeffreys, Harold 2, 213, 287
INDEX 295
"Joint" papers 3-6 further analysis of Paper No. 20
252-253 results for
main study 74 pilot study 14 robust Bayesian analysis 228
. in summary 263-264 three-category analysis 241-242 weight-rate analysis 210-214
Joshi, S. B. 273,287 Joyce, James 243-248 Junius 271,277,281
}(enny,llnthony 269,276,277,287 }(ent, Chancellor James 4-5 }(ent list 4-5, 14 Kesari 273, 274 }(jetsaa, Geir 272, 273, 287 }(leyle, Robert 133, 243, 259 }(lingemann, E. A. 274 }(nown papers, see papers of known
authorship }(ryukov, Fyodor 272,273 }(ucera, Henry 281,287
Laplace integral expansion 148, 153 applied to posterior expectations
multivariate 150-151 univariate 148
asymptotic development 153-154 transformation of variables 149,
152 Late Hamilton papers 83 Late Madison 195 Length of paper, see paper length Likelihood ratio 54-57,120-124
behavior of negative binomial 97, 122-124 Poisson 122
for correlated normals 155, 160 discussion of desirable shapes
120-121 estimates and confidence limits for,
in the weight-rate analysis 212-214
296 INDEX
Likelihood ratio (continued) monotone 122-124 see also log odds; odds factors
Linear discriminant function, see discriminant function
Littauer Statistical Center, Harvard University 43
Lodge, Henry Cabot 5, 71, 283, 287 Log odds 55
see also final odds in the main study
adjustments to 84-88; in penalty study 189-190
comparison of Poisson and negative binomial 75, 81
conditional and unconditional 118-119
contributions of marker and high-frequency words 81-82
effects of correlations 155-163 illustrated for 15 pairs of words
157-159; for 11 words treated jointly 160-161
mean and variance of adjustment 155-156, 160
effects of systematic variations in Madison's writings 195-199; table 196
effects of varying the prior distributions, see prior distributions, effects ofvarying
evaluation of 119-120 expected log odds
under the negative binomial model 178-180; table 164
under a normal approximation 155-156; table 158
under the Poisson model 177 ; table 164
in total, compared to observed log odds 173; paper-bypaper 174-175
by word group 176 tables of
by individual words 78-80 in total for the disputed and
joint papers 74; adjusted 88
in total for the late Hamilton papers 83
in total for the papers of known authorship 70-73
by word groups 76 in the robust Bayesian analysis
for high-frequency words 217-220
for low-frequency words 220-224
tables for disputed and joint papers 229; for papers of known authorship 225-228
in the three-category analysis interpretation 238-239 role as weights 229 rules for computing 233 table 232-233
in the weight-rate analysis 213-214; table 213
Low-frequency words in the robust Bayesian analysis
definition and list 217 method for obtaining log odds
220-224 weakness of using rates 201, 220 see also marker words; words
Madison, James 1 ff. word rates for 244-248 see also authorship of the disputed
Federalist papers Main study 46-199
abstract structure 111-117 methods illustrated for Poisson
model 51-64 results on authorship
for disputed and joint papers 74-75, 87-88
for papers of known authorship 69-73, 75
summarized 263-264 theoretical basis 92-199 two stages of analysis 58-59
Marker words 10-11 log odds for 77-82
Marlowe, Christopher 270
Mathematical model 22 Matrix inversion
use of a simple approximation 162-163
Maximum likelihood estimation iterative determination 105, 108
choice of initial values 108-111 negative binomial 97
McCulloch, J. R. 274 McMahon, L. E. 269,287 Medvedev, Roy A. 272, 273, 287 Meier, Paul 279, 287 Mendenhall, T. C.259, 270,271,287,
288 Method-of-moments estimates
in a binomial problem 129-130 in choice of Pl and P2 125-130 as initial estimates for iteration
108....;111 of negative binomial parameters
97-98 tables for 22 words 101; for
30 words 110 Method parameter p, see model
parameter; prediction method Mill, James 274 Mill, John Stuart 274 Miller, G. A. 7,39,288 Miller-Newman-Friedman list 28,
37-39, 243-248, 250, 288 sources 243 word rates for 244-248
Minimum penalty estimation 188 Mitchell, Ann 212 Mitchell, Broadus 6, 288 Mixture assumption in study of
systematic variation 195, 198-199
Modal approximation 60, 100, 119 in the abstract structure 116-117 accuracy. 85-86 methods for studying accuracy
138-154 illustrated for 5 words 143-'-146
which mode 1 104-105, 106-108 Modal estimates 67, 104-107
choice of initial estimate 108-111 iterative determination 105
table of 66, 110 for upon 136
INDEX 297
which'mode1 104-107, 139-140, 149
Model parameter p 99, 163, 181 Model II analysis of variance 52, 115 Molina, E. C. 31, 288 Monotone likelihood ratio, see
likelihood ratio Mood; A. M. 213, 288 Morris, R. 269, 287 Morton, A. Q. 268, 269, 270, 276, 278,
281, 288 Mosteller, F. 6-10, 23, 42, 43, 288
Nabokov, Vladimir 272 N achtwachen; Die 274 Negative binomial distribution 34-35,
51, 65, 93-98, 99 cumulants 94 formula 34, 93 likelihood function 97 likelihood ratio and its behavior
97, 122-124 limiting behavior 94-95 mixture representation 95, 96 parameters
choice of 96-97 estimation 97-98, 100-101 for pairs of distribution 102-103 prior distributions 65, 103; see
also prior distributions table of estimates for final words
66; of method-of-moments estimates for 22 words 101
penalty study of adequacy 185-190 possible strange behavior illustrated
for upon 135-138 relation to Poisson 93-95 sample moments 98
Newman, E. B. 39,288 Newman, Morris 163,288 Newton-Raphson iteration 105 Nonparametric methods 274,275 Non-Poissonness 35,94,96-97
combined 102 differential 101-102
298 INDEX
N on-Poissonness (continued) estimates for 22 words 100-101 transformations of 101-102,
140-141 Nuisance parameters
formal analysis 114-117
Oakman, Robert L. 269, 288 O'Brien, D. P. 274,275,288 Odds 9,53-54
see log odds; final odds; odds factor Odds factor 100,112-114,117-120 Odoroff, Charles L. 126, 140, 165, 203 of
frequency by category of use 255-256
on corrections to approximate log odds
144-145 correlation 84, 157-159 frequency distribution of rate 169 in penalty study 185-189 table of contributions to log odds
78 Outrageous events 90-91
P-values for assessing discrimination 211
Paper, defined and identified 17, 19-21;283-284
Paper length adjustments in study of regression
effects 178, 180 adjustments to log odds in robust
Bayesian analysis 221, 224 denoted by w 52, 93 as a discriminator 259 for screening and calibrating sets
209 table of 70-74; means 178
Papers of disputed and joint authorship, see disputed papers; joint papers
Papers of known authorship exterior to The Federalist 283-284 from The Federalist 3-6, 70-73
results for main study 69-73 pilot study 12-13 robust Bayesian analysis
235-239 three-category analysis 225-227 weight-rate analysis 205-208
Parameters classification 111 of data distributions 57, 60-67 distribution of estimates 62, 107 model 99 of prior distributions 52, 63; see
also underlying constants treated as random variables 58,
60 see also prior distributions; posterior
distributions; negative binomial distribution, parameters
Particles and connectives 276 Parts of speech 276 Paul,Jean 274 Pearson, Egon S. 48-49,288 Peirce, Benjamin 279 Peirce, Charles Sanders 279 Penalties
expected defined 184 relation to Shannon information
191 table of bench-mark values 185 tables for the Federalist
application 186-188 observed
choice of penalty function 191 comparison with expected
185-190 defined 184, 191 effect of adjustment factor
189-190 effect of initial odds 188-189 likelihood interpretation 192-195 minimizing, as an estimation
procedure 188 relation to log odds 192 standardized deviate 185 tables for the Federalist
application 186-190
Penalty function basis of choice 190-192 in Federalist application 183-190 minimization property 184, 191 table of bench-mark values 185 see also penalties
Penalty study 180-195 adequacy of Poisson and negative
binomial models 185-190 specification and labeling of methods
182-183 test sequence 181-182 see penalty function; penalties
Petersen, David L. 277,288 Phrases 45 Poetry versus prose 268, 270, 271 Poisson distribution 28, 31-34, 51,
95-96, 97, 99 fitted and compared to observed
and negative binomial distributions 32-34
likelihood ratio 122 penalty study of adequacy 185-190 used to describe methods for main
study 51-64 Pollatschek, Moshe A. 277,289 Portnoy, Stephen L. 277,288 Position of word in sentence 270,
274 Posterior distributions
in the abstract structure 116-117 illustrated for also 64 mode of 60, 67, 105-107
tables 66, 85 see also modal estimates
of parameters 58-59, 103-105 relative density, 107 standard deviations of 85
Posterior expectations approximate evaluation 138-154
components of error 143-144 multivariate 150-152 using means and variances 139 using modes and derivatives
139 see Laplace integral expansion
asymptotic theory 152-154 as an integral 60, 139
INDEX 299
Prediction method 181-183 comparisons, for the Federalist
application 185-190 expected and observed penalties
184 Prior distributions 48-49
see also underlying constants choice of 61, 100-102, 124-138 effects of varying 63,67,75,84-85,
132-138 tables 70-74, 134
empirical base 61-62, 266 of negative binomial parameters (1',
T, g, n 65, 103, 124-138 of parameters 58-59, 61-67, 103,
114-116 of Poisson parameters (1', T 61-63 in robust Bayesian analysis
choice of 220, 223 high-frequency words 219 low-frequency words 222
Probability of authorship, see final odds; log
odds; initial odds interpretation 47-50 see also odds; prior distributions;
posterior distributions Probability predictions
defined 181 evaluating methods of 180-195
Proportionate pairs 269, 280 "Publius" 2
Radday, Yehuda T. 277,288,289 Raiffa, H. 214, 289 Range 202 Rao, C. R. 57,289 Rao, P. S. R. S. 241 Rates, see word rates Regression effects
in the main study 163-180 expected and observed rates
compared 165-166 by single words 240-241 in the three-category analysis
239-241 in the weight-rate analysis 208-209
300 INDEX
Relative density 107 Relative mode 104-107, 139-140, 149 Rencher, Alvin C. 277,285 Robbins, Herbert 115, 289 Roberts, Paul 9, 289 Robinson, Hetty (Hetty Green) 279 Robust Bayesian analysis 215-228
methods 215-224 results
for disputed and joint papers 228 for papers of known authorship
225-227 Robustness 215 Rossiter, Clinton 6; 289 Rourke, R. E. K. 23,288 Runyon, Damon 75,289, Rush, Richard 5 Rush list 5
Savage, L. J. 51 Schelling, Fr. 274 Schlaifer, Robert 214, 289 Scott, Sir Walter 269,270 Screening set of papers 200, 229
choice of in robust Bayesian analysis
216-217 in three-category analysis ~29 in weight-rate analysis 201
results for in robust Bayesian analysis
225-226 in three-category analysis
235-236 in weight-rate analysis 205-206
Screening study 11,39-42, 250-251 list of words obtained 38
Selecting words, methods of for possible qse in study 37-43 in simplified studies 249-251 for use in final inference
main study 54-55,67-69, 195-198
robust Bayesian analysis 216-217
three-category anlJ,lysis 229-234 weight-rate analysis 201, 203
Selection effects 51-52,67-68,200,275 illustrated, for also 64
Sentencelength 6-7,273,280 average 7 standard deviation 7
Shakespeare, William 270,271 Shakespeare-Bacon controversy 268,
270, 271 Shannon, C. 191 Sholokhov, MikhlJ,il 272,273 Shore, Haim 277,288,289 Sidney, Sir Philip 271 Simultaneous classification ~O, 114,
182 Smirp.ov, N. V. 214, 289 Solzhenitsyn,AIeksandr 272 Spacing of frequent words 281 Square~root transformation 157 Stages of analysis 58-{!0
block diagram 59 St!tlin, Joseph 272 Standardized deviate
for observed penalty 185 Stewart, Ralph A., Jr. 43 Stigler, Stephen M. 275,289 Strength of a word, see importance of
., a word Strong Concordance 243, 289 Stylistics 269 boo~s on 269
Stylometrics 2~9, 270 Suffix convention 150 Sukhatme, P. V. 214,289 Symbols: a partial list of those used in
several sections with a common meaning (subscripts are omitted here)
d 98, 100 fnb 93 fp 95 m 61 nb 93, 99 P 99 s 61 t 62 w 52, 93 a 103 fl 63, 65, 103
Symbols (continued) P* 107 Y 103 (in Sections 4.2, 4.6 only) o 93-94 'YJ 102 o 111 K 93-94 It 52,93-94, 111 g 102 u 61, 102 T 61, 102 ¢ 99 A 106, 140 ~ 59,94
Synonyms 256 Systematic variation in Madison's
writings 68, 195-199
t-statistics for assessing discrimination 210-211
log odds from t 212-214 Tails of distributions
contrast between prior and data distributions 138
and likelihood ratio behavior 120-121
and robustness 215 Temple, Sir William 77, 252 Test sequence, see penalty study, test
sequence Thomas, G. B., Jr. 23, 288 Three-category analysis 229-242
method 229-234 results
for disputed and joint papers 241-242
for papers of known authorship 235-239
study of regression effects 239-241 to
corrections to approximate log odds 144
frequency distribution of rate 170 in penalty study 185-189 rates in different groups of writings
198 table of contribution to log odds 78
Tilak, B. G. 273, 274 Tolstoy, Leo 272 Torrens, R. 274
INDEX 301
Transition frequencies 274, 280 Translations 277, 278, 281 Tukey, John W. 42,126,157,288,289 Two-point formulas for expected log
odds 179-180 2000-word set of papers 173, 216
identified 216 log odds for 225-226 mean paper lengths 178
Type-token ratio 273
Ulysses 243 word rates for 244-248
Underlying constants choice of Pi and P2 124-130; of Pa
130-131; of P4 and Ps 131-132
defined 52, 63, 115 effect of varying, see prior
distributions, effect of varying formally specified 65, 103 in relation to alternative choice of
modes 107 sets used
complete table 102 final choices 65 initial choices 63 to study effects of varying prior
distributions 132 upon
changes in counts 86 comparison of observed and
expected log odds 176 corrections to approximate log odds
144-145 correlation 84, 157-159 counts of occurrences by individual
paper 12-14 detailed study of likelihood and of
log odds 135-138 discovery 11 empirical and theoretical
distributions of occurrences 32, 33
302 INDEX
upon (continued) frequency distribution of rate 19,
171 justification of magnitude of odds
89 performance in secondary studies,
paper-by-paper 204-210, 225-228, 232,235~239, 242
table of contributions to log odds in the main study 76
Validating set of papers 216 log odds for 226-228
Validation ofthe main study 69,75,83
penalty study 181-190 regression study 163-176
of the robust Bayesian 226-228 of the three-category analysis
236-239 of the weight-rate analysis
207-208 Variables for discrimination (Chapter
10) collocation 270, 274, 280 commas, rate of 273, 274, 280 function words 280 particles and connectives 276 parts of speech 276 position of word in sentence 270,
274 proportionate pairs 269, 280 sentence length 273,280 spacing of frequent words 281 transition frequencies 274, 280 type-token ratio 273 word frequencies 274,275 word length 270, 271, 273, 280
Variables for discrimination (The Federalist) 16, 45
see words; word rates . miscellaneous unsuccessful choices
256-257,259 phrases 45 sentence length 6-7 word length 259-262 words classified by use 252-256
Wallace, D. L. 43, 288 Waves A, B, C of papers 11-13,
39-42 Weight-rate analysis 200-214
method 200-203 results
for disputed and joint papers 210-214
for papers of known authorship, 205-208
study of regression effects 208-209 Weights for word rates 202,204 "Well-liked" words 68,204 Wetzel, F. G. 274 while-whilst
changes in counts 86 corrections to approximate log odds
144, 146 counts of occurrences by individual
papers 12-14 initial discovery 10 in the pilot st-ddy 10-14 table of contributions to log odds
79-80 Wickmann, Dieter 274,277,289 Wiitanen, Wayne 43 Williams, C. B. 6, 259, 269, 270, 271,
273,289 Williams, Frederick 6-10 Willson, C. Harvey 43 Word counts
distribution of, see frequency distributions
effect of errors and changes on log odds 86-87
by hand 44 by machine 43-44 paper-by-paper, for four words
12-14 suggested simplified method 250
Word frequencies 274,275 counting difficulties 269 distributional assumptions
formal 99 heuristic 96
high-frequencies 269, 270, 276 Word groups
for the main study 68-69, 77
Word groups (continued) log odds by 76-77, 83 regression effect by 176
for the robust Bayesian analysis 217
for the three-category analysis 234 results by 235-242
for the weight-rate analysis 203-204
results by 205-210 Word length
comparisons of Bacon, Shakespeare, and Sidney 271
comparisons of Hamilton's and Madison's 261-262
as a discriminating variable 258-262, 270, 271, 280
distributions of 258, 260, 261, 271 273
Word rates 17 correlation between pairs of words
35-37 matrix for 11 words 161 dependence in successive blocks of
text 23-28 distributions of 28-35 mathematical models for describing
22 ff. systematic deviations between The
Federalist and Neutral Trade 68, 194-198
tables of distributions in Hamilton, Madison
and disputed papers for 11 words 167-172; see also
INDEX 303
frequency distributions for Madison over time 21 for 165 words in 6 sources of
writing 244-248 observed and expected, for 11
words 166 variation with time 19-22
Words 16 contextual 18, 39, 51, 68, 204 function 17, 38-39 marker 10-11 meanings and uses 253-256 pools 37--43
role in main study 51-52 used in final inference
main study 66 robust Bayesian analysis 217 three-category analysis 232-233 weight-rate analysis 203-204
used in study 38,43 well-liked 68, 204 see also selection of words; word
length; word rates; by; enough; of; on; to; upon; while-whilst
Wright, Benjamin Fletcher 6, 289 Wundt, Wilhelm 7, 290
Yeager, Marie 133,243,259 Youtz, Cleo 43, 126 Yule, G. Ddny 6, 269, 290
Zabell, Sandy 279, 287
Symbols are listed under the entry, "Symbols." For additional names of individuals see Acknowledgments at the close of each Preface.
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