×
+ All Categories
Log in
English
Français
Español
Deutsch
Download -
Henry Stewart Survival Analysis
Download
Transcript
1. Applications of Survival Analysis to Customer Management Henry Stewart Briefing for Users of Marketing Analytics 4 December 2008, Mayfair Conference Centre, Marble Arch, London William De Genst
2. Survival Analysis
3. Survival Analysis Understanding Customer Attrition
4. Survival Analysis Techniques
5. Survival Analysis Distributions of lifetimes
6. Survival Analysis Distributions of lifetimes
7. Survival Analysis Joining Time Time Survey end Actual Time Time from common origin Distributions of lifetimes
8. Survival Analysis Estimation
9. Survival Analysis Estimation
10. Survival Analysis Trial contract Non-trial contract Log-rank test (Mantel-Haenszel) Chisq= 30.2 on 1 degrees of freedom, p= 3.98e-08 Estimation
11. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model
12. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Var SE( ) z p v 1 0.09 0.03 3.19 0.01 v 2 -0.35 0.19 -1.83 0.06 v n -0.34 0.38 -0.90 0.37
13. Survival Analysis Schoenfeld residuals ~ time Martingale residuals ~ covariate Cox proportional hazards model
14. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Smoothed term
15. Lifetime Value Analysis Customer Lifetime Value
16. Lifetime Value Analysis time Survival probability Customer spend time
Marketing campaign
Initial cost
Initial return
Loyal customers spend
more over time
Return on investment
Customer Lifetime Value
17. Case Study Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
18. Case Study Free trials Year 1 renewal Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
19. Case Study DD cancelation Free trials going on to other products Original Payment Method
20. Case Study Payment method as strata
Decreased hazard:
More product switches
Method payment
Downgrading (customer finds fee unjustified for usage)
Increased income
Increased hazard:
Higher household density
Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign coef exp(coef) se(coef) z p productswitches -0.21 0.81 0.08 -2.58 0.01 methodswitches -2.76 0.06 0.15 -17.99 0.00 downgrades -1.63 0.20 0.58 -2.80 0.01 income 0.03 1.03 0.01 1.76 0.08 HHdensity 0.06 1.06 0.03 1.95 0.05
21. Case Study
- Loyal customers tend to spend more over time
- Free trial customers that subsequently subscribe to a paid subscription
gradually spend more, to reach same level as paid subscribers
Paid Free trial Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
22. Case Study break-even in week 65 Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
23. Case Study Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
24. Conclusions
LOAD MORE
Top Related
Case Studies Henry Stewart Publications Case Studies · • Electronic communications monitoring, the broken windows theory and artificial intelligence - German Florez, Senior Compliance
Documents
Case Studies Henry Stewart Publications Case Studies · • Jean Noël Kapferer, Professor, HEC Paris • Kevin Marshall, Creative Director of Global Packaging and Content, Microsoft
Documents
Case Studies Henry Stewart Publications Case Studies · Curation and Dallas Pillen, Archivist for Metadata and Digital Projects, Bentley Historical Library, University of Michigan
Documents
Fully engaged · 2016-02-26 · culture lies with making employees happy through creating a desirable working environment. Henry Stewart, author of “The Happy Manifesto,” writes
Documents
Henry Stewart Slides
Education
ICAWC 2013 - Creating a Happy & Productive Workplace - Henry Stewart
Business
Orangutan Species Survival Plan (SSP)© 2012 Field Advisor ...€¦ · Orangutan Species Survival Plan (SSP)© 2012 Field Advisor Updates Ronda Schwetz –Zoo Director, Henry Vilas
Documents
HENRY&STEWART&& - Amazon Web ServicesHappy Workplaces Henry Stewart @happyhenry Happy Ltd Best Workplaces: UK Top 20 People work best when they feel good about themselves How would
Documents