CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 1CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TX
HIGH-RESOLUTION FLASH FLOOD
FORECASTING FOR THE DALLAS-
FORT WORTH METROPLEX (DFW)
DONG-JUN SEO1, AREZOO RAFIEEI NASAB1, BEHZAD NAZARI1, AMIR
NOROUZI1, PLOY JANGYODSUK2, JEAN GAO2, HAONAN CHEN3, V.
CHANDRASEKAR3, BRENDA PHILIPS4, ERIC LYONS4
1Dept. Of Civil Eng., The Univ. of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX2Dept of Computer Sci. & Eng., The Univ. of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX3Dept. of Electrical & Computer Eng., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO4Eng. Res. Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere,
Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 2CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014
Acknowledgements
• NWS/OHD – Zhengtao Cui, Brian Cosgrove, Victor Koren, Mike Smith
• NWS/WFO Dallas-Fort Worth – Tom Bradshaw, Greg Patrick
• NWS/WGRFC – Just about everyone
• NWS/MARFC – Seann Reed
• NWS/APRFC – Dave Streubel
• University of Texas at Arlington/CE – Xinbao Yu, John McEnery
• AECOM – Zubin Sukheswalla
• University of Louisiana at Lafayette – Emad Habib
• The City of Fort Worth – Anthony Garma, Tim Royer
• The City of Arlington - Bill Brown, Mandy Clark
• The City of Grand Prairie – Gabe Johnson, Mazan Kawasmi, David McKee
• DEC Data Systems – Donald Colton
• Freese & Nichols – Justin Naylor
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 3
High resolution flash flood forecasting
• more than three-quarters of the population live in urban
areas which collectively comprise only about 3% of the
land area.
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 4CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014
Urban flash flood warning for the City of
Fort Worth Part of NSF AIR project (2013~2015)
Work in progress
Develop and implement a prototype flash flood forecasting system
for the City of Fort Worth
High-resolution quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE)
Precipitation nowcasting
Hydrologic modeling
City-wide
Hydraulic modeling
At selected locations
Decision support
High resolution flash flood forecasting
In this presentation
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 5CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014
DFW Urban Testbed
• Goals
Demonstrate the CASA radar system’s public safety and economic benefits in a
densely populated urban environment
Improve the capacity of the North Central Texas emergency management,
environmental, and transportation systems and other benefits
http://droc1.srh.noaa.gov/dfw/
High resolution flash flood forecasting
UT Arlington
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 6CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014
Hydrologic models
• The Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model
(HL-RDHM) developed by the NWS Hydrology Laboratory
• Koren et al. (2004), many DMIP and other references
• Designed for flash flood forecasting, river forecasting and water
resources applications
• Used at Weather Forecast Offices (WFO), River Forecast Centers
(RFC) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
• Supports gridded modeling (w/ or w/o routing)
• Flexible I/O in standard NWS formats
• Multiple resolutions
• Rainfall-runoff (SAC-HT), snow, frozen ground, hillslope and
channel routing (kinematic wave)
• Simulation and calibration modes
High resolution flash flood forecasting
Models used in this work
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 7
The HLRDHM
domain
encompassing
Fort Worth,
Arlington and
Grand Prairie.
Overlaid is the
500x500 m2
CASA QPE
grid.
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 8
Composite of all impervious layersHigh resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 9
Imperviousness map on 1/16 HRAP (~250 m) gridHigh resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 10
High resolution flash flood forecasting
~500 m ~250 m
~1 km~2 km~4 km
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 11
Total precipitation for June 24, 2014
MPE (1 HRAP, 1 hr) CASA (1/8 HRAP, 1 min)
High resolution flash flood forecasting
1 HRAP ~ 4 km 1/8 HRAP ~ 500 m
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7clxVjQWj1Q (from 0:10)
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 12
Total precipitation for June 25, 2014
High resolution flash flood forecasting
MPE (1 HRAP, 1 hr) CASA (1/8 HRAP, 1 min)
1 HRAP ~ 4 km 1/8 HRAP ~ 500 m
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 13CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014
June 24, 2014, flash flooding in Fort Worth, TX
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
434 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT
* AT 433 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
LAKESIDE TO DOWNTOWN FORT WORTH TO PANTEGO. THE STORMS PRODUCING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NEARLY STATIONARY. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY…AND ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 630 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND…DONT
DROWN. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF MOVING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST
VEHICLES…INCLUDING PICKUPS AND SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL WATER
RECEDES. CHILDREN SHOULD NEVER PLAY AROUND HIGH WATER…DRAINAGE
DITCHES…STORM DRAINS…OR FLOODED STREAMS.
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 14CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014
MPE precipitation
MPE-forced streamflow
MPE-forced runoff
The empty black circles represent
the locations of flooding reports by
residents during the course of each
day of the 2-day period.
The circles turn red at the time when
flooding was first reported.
High resolution flash flood forecasting
4 km, hourly precipitation uniformly
disaggregated to 500 m, 15 min
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 15
CASA precipitation
CASA-forced streamflow
CASA-forced runoff
The empty black circles represent
the locations of flooding reports by
residents during the course of each
day of the 2-day period.
The circles turn red at the time when
flooding was first reported.
High resolution flash flood forecasting
500 m, 1 min
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 16
X (HRAP)
Y (
HR
AP
)
Streamflow (m3/min)
576 578 580 582 584 586 588 590
260
258
256
254
252
250
248
246
1
2
3
4
5
6
Storm drains
modeled
Fort Worth
~350 mi2Edgecliff Branch of
Sycamore Creek
~4.7 mi2
Channel flow modeled
by HLRDHM
1-D channel and storm drain
flow + 2D surface water flow
modeled by SWMM for the
Edgecliff Branch of the
Sycamore Creek
1D-2D flow modeled
by SWMM for upper
part of the Edgecliff
Branch
Upper Edgecliff
Branch
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 17
High resolution flash flood forecasting
Oct 12, 2011, event - Water depth
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 18
High resolution flash flood forecasting
Oct 12, 2011, event – Water velocity
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 19
Hydrologic evaluation
Water level observations
using pressure transducers
http://www.highsierraelectronics.com/products
Fort Worth
Arlington
Grand Prairie
High-resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 20
Urban flash flood forecasting
1 HRAP
(~4x4 km2)
Water level sensor locations and the contributing areas in Fort Worth (left), Arlington
(middle) and Grand Prairie (right). Also shown in yellow are the Edgecliff Branch of
the Sycamore Creek (lower) and the Forest Park-Berry (upper) Catchments.
Fort Worth Arlington Grand Prairie
High-water
warning flasher
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 21
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 22
High resolution flash flood forecasting
High-resolution precipitation
Soil moisture
Crowd-sourced water obs
Water level, quality
Improving understanding and
prediction of the urban water cycle
via improved observation, modeling
and model-data fusion
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 23
Parameter est./opt.
Initial conditions
Model
output
Statistical modeling,
causal inference
Model parameters
Models
Historical data
High-
resolution QPI
Forecasts,
projections
Wireless
sensor
observations
Existing
observations
Crowdsourced
observations
Real-time data
Ensemble
prediction
framework
Decision
support
Data assimilation
Cloud computing Advanced
sensing
Data-enabled
discovery
Non-real time
Real time
QPE fusion
Verification
Cities
Consultants
NCTCOG
NWS
EPA
USGS
USACE
FEMA
TRA
TRWD
Dallas Utility
Users and
stakeholders
Education and workforce development
• Flash flood
forecasting
• Inundation
mapping
• Water quality
forecasting
• Stormwater
management
• Urbanization
impact
assessment
• Climate change
impact
assessment
• Climate change
adaptation
• life cycle
analysis
• LID
• SUDS
Urban sustainability
applications
Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 24
High resolution flash flood forecasting
Yesterday in
Fort Worth, TX
Changes in observed 20-yr return value of the daily accumulated precipitation (in.)
from 1948 to 2010 (Kunkel et al. 2013)
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 25
THANK YOU
Q/A, Discussion
For more info, contact
High resolution flash flood forecasting
CAHMDA-HEPEX/DAFOH Workshop, Austin, TXSep 11, 2014 26
To benefit from high-resolution modeling, high-
resolution high-quality QPE is necessary
Urban flash flood warning
Coarse Very fine
Model resolution
Perc
ent
err
or
in s
tream
flow
sim
ula
tion
Perfect
QPE
Very poor
QPE
Good QPE
Poor QPE
Adapted from Koren et al. 2003