HISPANIC BATTLEGROUND SURVEY
April 25-29, 2021
2
The Hispanic Battleground survey was conducted April 25-29, 2021. 1200 Hispanic likely voters in
AZ, FL, GA, NV, NC, PA, WI, OHMargin of error is +/- 2.82%.
Methodology
3
5
78
910
11
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Hispanic Percentage of Electorate
4
• The Emerging Democratic Majority -2002• By Judis and Teixeira
• Thesis: •Minority voters – primarily Hispanics –
will grow as a share of the electorate by 2 percentage points every four years. • Demographic shifts bring Democrats’
long-term political dominance, the nation will become California.
Demography is Destiny!
5
“Obama mobilized the Democrats' new ‘coalition of the ascendant,’ winning enough support among young people, minorities and college-educated
whites…”- Ron Brownstein, Nov 7, 2012
Coalition of the Ascendant?
44
38
33
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
2012 2016 2020
6
10% of Electorate
11% of Electorate
13% of Electorate
Democrat Margin of Victory in Presidential Elections
7
“One important thing about the decline in Hispanic support for Democrats is that it was pretty broad.
This isn’t just about Cubans in South Florida. It happened in New York and California and Arizona and Texas. Really, we saw large drops all over the
country.”
-David Shor, Democrat pollster/Obama campaign data guru
The Coalition of the Ascendant is Now Descending
8
• Democrats have forgotten the American working class and Hispanics are the fastest growing part of it.• Democrats have failed to grasp or understand the values
and aspirations of Hispanics voters.• Democrats believe all minorities reflexively agree with
them, no matter how bizarre and left wing Dems become.
The Coalition of the Ascendant is Now Descending
Hispanic Voters Reject Socialism
63
17 20
Capitalism Socialism DK/Refused
Thinking about different forms of government, which of the following statements do you agree with most?
Some people say free market capitalism is the best form of
government because it gives people the freedom to work and achieve
their potential.
Other people say that socialism is the best form of government
because it is more fair and equitable to working class people.
67
17 16
Capitalism Socialism DK/Refused
HISPANIC BATTLEGROUND ALL VOTERS
Capitalism vs. Socialism
63
17 20
Capitalism Socialism DK/Refused
CAPITALISM VS . SOCIALISM
Thinking about different forms of government, which of the following statements do you agree with most?
Some people say free market capitalism is the best form of government because it gives people the freedom to
work and achieve their potential.
Other people say that socialism is the best form of government because it is more fair and equitable to
working class people.
57
7361
74
59
2110
169
23
Mexican Cuban Puerto Rican South American Central American /Dominican41% 11% 15% 13%
11%
Hispanic Voters Are Aspirational
46
13 4
21
15
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
I’m very concerned that America is declining, and my kids won’t have the same opportunities me and my family came here to find.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused
67
28
Declining Opportunities
4228
2
16
13
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
Too many people in this country no longer want to work and are happy to just live off of government assistance.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused58
41
Too Many Living off government
3757
85
6141
14
Democrat Independent Republican
69 64 57 53
29 3443 45
Rural Small Town Suburban Urban
15
40% 27% 31%
AgreeDisagree
16%12% 42%27%
Too Many Living off government
3420
11
16
19
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
Many of the policies that democrats say help all minorities actually end up hurting Hispanic families.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused
5039
Democrat Policies Hurt Hispanic Families
17
25
51
80
64
36
11
Democrat Independent Republican40% 27% 31%
AgreeDisagree
Democrat Policies Hurt Hispanic Families
12
56
5
14
13
Favor Oppose DK/Refused
Allowing illegal immigrants to receive the same welfare and unemployment benefits as citizens.
Strongly FavorSomewhat FavorSomewhat OpposeStrongly OpposeDK/Refused
26
69
Welfare and Unemployment for Illegal Immigrants
60
8 3
20
8
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
Many public-school systems in America are failing and our children are falling behind the rest of the world.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused
80
16
Public Schools are Failing
American Values and Culture
52
165
15
12
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
Too many Americans, especially young Americans, no longer believe in God and we are losing our traditional values centered on faith, family and
freedom.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused
67
28
Losing Traditional Values
64
8 4
15
8
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
Social media companies have too much power and have used it to expand their control of the public debate and politics.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused
79
16
Big Tech Has Too Much Power
48
13 11
18
11
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement. Cancel culture has gotten out of hand and many normal people have been punished unjustly and had their lives ruined for something they said many years ago.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused
66
24
Cancel Culture
19
51
7
12
10
Favor Oppose DK/Refused
As you may have heard, Major League Baseball recently moved the All-Star Game out of Atlanta to protest an election reform law passed in Georgia. Other big corporations have also made threats to punish Georgia’s economy and any state that doesn’t do what they demand. Do you favor or oppose corporations using their power to punish states they disagree with?
Strongly FavorSomewhat FavorSomewhat OpposeStrongly OpposeDK/Refused
31
61
MLB Controversy
16
51
12
11
10
Favor Oppose DK/Refused
Would you favor or oppose a law about transgender people that requires all schools and universities to allow people born male to play on women’s sports
teams and use women’s locker rooms if they identify as female.
Strongly FavorSomewhat FavorSomewhat OpposeStrongly OpposeDK/Refused
27
61
Women’s Sports
20
48
10
13
9
Favor Oppose DK/Refused
As you may know, President Biden and Democrats in Congress are considering adding three additional judges on the Supreme Court so that they would have a liberal majority on the Court and their most liberal policies will not be struct down as
unconstitutional. This effort is called Court packing. Do you favor or oppose Democrat efforts to pack the Supreme Court with liberal judges?
Strongly FavorSomewhat FavorSomewhat OpposeStrongly OpposeDK/Refused
33
57
Court Packing
Border SecurityElection Security
52
12 5
20
11
Agree Disagree DK/Refused
We should do what is necessary to control our southern border and stop the surge of illegal immigration happening right now.
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/Refused
72
23
6981 75 72 68
2515 20 22 24
Mexican Cuban Puerto Rican South American Central American41% 11% 15% 13% 11%
We Need to Control the Border
2337
15
15
11
More Likely Dem Less Likely Dem DK/Refused
Have the policies Joe Biden and Democrats enacted which caused the crisis on our southern border made you more or less likely to support Democrat
candidates in the 2022 election for Congress?
Much More Likely DemSomewhat More Likely DemSomewhat Less Likely DemMuch Less Likely DemDK/Refused38
48
Border Crisis Impact on Vote
7
71
46
12
Favor Oppose DK/Refused
Do you favor or oppose allowing illegal immigrants to vote in state and federal elections.
Strongly FavorSomewhat FavorSomewhat OpposeStrongly OpposeDK/Refused
13
83
Non Citizens Voting
20
55
6
9
10
Favor Oppose DK/Refused
Many states require that you show a valid photo ID in order to vote. They say showing ID to vote cuts down on people fraudulently casting ballots for other people or people
who have died. The Democrats in Washington are currently trying to pass a bill that would make it illegal for any state to require showing a valid photo ID in order to vote.
Do you favor or oppose the Democrats bill that would make voter ID illegal?
Strongly FavorSomewhat FavorSomewhat OpposeStrongly OpposeDK/Refused
29
65
Voter ID Ban
32
49
23
9
43
73
89
Democrat Independent Republican40% 27% 31%
FavorOppose
Voter ID Ban
33
• 2016 Results among Hispanics• Rubio 48% / Murphy 50%• Scott 48% / Nelson 48%
• Twice as many FL voters in 2020 as did in 2000. • The Florida electorate is substantially less white than it
was in in 2000. • And yet, more Republican than it was 20 years ago.
Florida Case StudyFL, not CA, is the future
HISPANIC BATTLEGROUND
SURVEY
April 25-29, 2021