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Download - HW 7 Forecasting

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Page 1: HW 7 Forecasting

Q1)

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Q2)

We can see from the output that bizexp granger causes dl_rgdp_sg but dl_nodx does not.

Dl_rgdp_sg granger causes bizexp but dl_nodx does not.

dl_rgdp_sg and bizexp do not granger cause dl_nodx.

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Q4)

Based on the results above we will use lag 1 and lag 2.

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Cholesky ordering:

Ppi , dl_rgdp_sg and bizexp

PPI( Producer Price Index) is likely to affect dl_rgdp_sg( log difference od real GDP) and Bizexp(business expectations) contemporaneously.

Dl_rgdp_sg is likely to affect bizexp and not ppi contemporaneously

Bizexp is likely to affect neither contemporaneously.


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