ICES Advice for 2009
South Western WatersSWWRAC, Lisbon, 08July08
Manuela Azevedo
(on behalf of ACOM Chair)
Hake pescada
Megrim areeiro Sole linguado
Anglerfish tamboril
Nephrops lagostim
Precautionary approach
Fpa
Blim
Flim
Bpa
Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB)
Fish
ing
mort
alit
yUsed to determine state of the stock and basis for advice
Bmsy Bmax
Fmsy
Fmax
Status of fish stocks• Expressed relative to precautionary reference
points– Biomass
– Fishing mortality
Reduced reproductive capacity
Full reproductive capacity
At risk of reduced
reproductive capacity
low
highBlim Bpa
Harvested unsustainablyHarvested sustainably
At risk of unsustainable
harvesting
low
highFpa Flim
Basis for the advice– If biomass
below Bpa : F that will achieve SSB at Bpa in 2010
below Blim : zero catch or Recovery Plan
– If management plans evaluated to be precautionary• Advice according to management plan
– If no assessment available• Indications of stable population: no increase effort/catch
– e.g. apply recent average catch• Indications of declining population: decrease effort/catch• Indications of depleted population: lowest possible/zero catch
Northern HakeIIIa, IV, VI, VII, VIIIabd
ICES advice
Landings in 2009 should not exceed 51 500 t → decrease in TAC of 5%
According to Fpa
Management objectives - Increase SSB above 140 th t: F < 0.25 but TAC±15%- If SSB >= 140 th t for 2 consecutive years then Management Plan
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
020
000
4000
060
000
Landingsto
nnes
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Fishing mortality
F(2
-6) Fpa
Flim
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
010
0000
2500
00
Recruitment
age
0 ()
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
010
0000
2500
00
SSB
Bpa
Blim
SSB > Bpa Fsq = Fpa Fsq > Fmax
Management considerations
• Discards of juvenile hake can be substantial in some areas and fleets. The spawning biomass and the long-term yield can be substantially improved by reducing mortality of small fish: technical measures that reduce unwanted bycatch and other measures that shift the selection pattern towards larger fish.
• The northern hake stock met the SSB target in the recovery plan of 140 000 t for two consecutive years, according to the results from the 2006 and 2007 assessments. Article 3 of the recovery plan indicated that a management plan should now be implemented and one is under development.
•The reduction of fishing mortality to levels around Fpa (0.25) has promoted the increase in SSB in recent years.
SoleBay of Biscay (VIIIabd)
ICES advice
Landings in 2009 should not exceed 4 430 t → increase in TAC of 6%
According to Fpa
Management objectives - Increase SSB above 13 th t in 2008
10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%
SSB ~ Bpa Fsq ~ Fpa Fsq > Fmax
FISHING MORTALITY
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
84 88 92 96 00 04
Year
F (3
-6,u
)
Flim
Fpa
SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS (SSB)
-113579
11131517
84 88 92 96 00 04
Year
(Tho
usan
d to
nnes
) Bpa
LANDINGS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
84 88 92 96 00 04
Year
(Tho
usan
d to
nnes
)
RECRUITMENT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
84 88 92 96 00 04
Year
2 YEAR
OLD
S (M
illion
s)
GM
Management considerations
• Since the stock is estimated close to the target SSB of 13 000t, according to article 3 of the multi-annual plan it is necessary for EC to decide on a long-term target fishing mortality rate and a rate of reduction to achieve the target.
Megrim in Divisions VIIb-k and VIIIabd
L. whiffiagonis
ICES advice
Landings in 2009 should not exceed 13 000 t Basis: average landings of 2004–2006
Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for this stock
• New survey data do not change stock perception: “.. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stock being stable.”
• No new advice: to be updated next year
Anglerfish in VIIb-k and VIIIabdL. piscatorius and L. budegassa
ICES advice
Landings in 2009 should not exceed 33 000 t Basis: average landings of 2004–2006
Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for these stocks
• New survey data do not change stock perception: “.. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stocks being stable.”
• No new advice: to be updated next year
-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Longitude (º W )
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Latit
ude
(º N
)
23
24
3125
26
27
28
29 30IXa
IXb
VIIIa
VIIIb
VIIIc
VIIIdVIIIe
Nephrops VIIIab (Bay of Biscay)
Functional Units 23 and 24:
Assessed as one entity
ICES advice
Landings in 2009 should not exceed 3 400 t Basis: average catch of 2005–2007
Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for this fishery
Reference points not defined Fsq > Fmax
FISHING MORTALITY
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Year
RECRUITMENT (AT AGE 1)
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Year
SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS (SSB)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Year
REMOVALS AND LANDINGS
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Year
landings
removals
F(2-5)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
SSB
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
R (age 1)
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Underestimation of Fishing mortality
Overestimation of Spawning Biomass
Major revision on Recruits
Short-term forecast not provided due to the high uncertainty of recent levels of recruitment. Short-term forecasts are particularly sensitive to uncertainty in recent recruitment
Management considerations
• Although the stock seems to have been relatively stable there is an opportunity to greatly increase the long-term yield from this fishery as well as the SSB.
This can be achieved by lowering the fishing mortality and improving the selection pattern. Since the present fishing mortality is three times the fishing mortality related to high long-term yield, a management plan should be established to reduce fishing mortality and also to improve the selection pattern, in particular by reducing discarding.
Iberian Waters (VIIIc and IXa)
ICES advice
Zero catch in 2009 According to Bpa
Management objectivesIncrease SSB above 35 th t by reducing F to 0.27 by 2015
10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%
Hake in VIIIc and IXa (Southern hake)
SSB < Blim Fsq > Flim Fsq > Fmax
Fsq > 0.27
Increased!
Well below Blim !
TAC overshot
Management considerations
• The implementation of the recovery plan has not been effective. Fishing mortality is increasing, the TAC is overshot, and discard rates are high.
• Had a 10% annual reduction in fishing mortality been achieved since 2006 according to the recovery plan, the fishing mortality in 2009 would be less than half of the most recent estimate.
• Recent increases in SSB and yield are due to good recruitment in recent years, but at the Fsq level there is a high probability of reversing the upwards trend in SSB unless F in 2009 is reduced by at least 40%
ICES advice
Landings in 2009 should not exceed 1 430 t230 t (megrim) + 1200 t (4-spotted-megrim)
Basis: No increase in F
Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for these stocks
• New survey and commercial data do not change stock perception: “ .. SSB stable for L. whiffiagonis and increasing for L. boscii.”
• No new advice: to be updated next year
Megrim in VIIIc and IXa
ICES advice
Close the fishery and develop a Recovery Plan According to PA
Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for these stocks
• There are no indications that the stock has improved Last year: Fishing mortality equal to zero in 2008 was not
expected to bring the stock back to BMSY. • No new advice: to be updated next year
Anglerfish in VIIIc and IXa
-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Longitude (º W )
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Latit
ude
(º N
)
23
24
3125
26
27
28
29 30IXa
IXb
VIIIa
VIIIb
VIIIc
VIIIdVIIIe
Nephrops
VIIIc
FU 25 – North Galicia
FU 31 – Cantabrian Sea
IXaFU 26-27 - West Galicia & North Portugal
FU 28-29 - SW & S Portugal
FU 30 - Gulf of Cadiz
Management objectivesRebuild the stock within 10 years (RPlan since end January 2006)10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%
Apply to all FU in Iberian waters
ICES advice FU 25: Reduce catches to zero FU 31: Reduce catches to zero
Landings
0
40
80
120
160
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Landin
gs (to
nnes)
Effort
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Effort (days fis
hin
g)
Avilés + Santander fleets
Santander fleet
LPUE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 L
PU
E (kg / in
dex)
Avilés fleet
Santander fleet
Mean sizes
32
36
40
44
48
52
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Mean s
ize (m
m c
ara
pace length
)
Landings Mal
Landings Fem
2* 3*
IXa
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
ton
nes
FU 30
FU 28-29
FU 26-27
ICES advice
FU 26-27: Reduce catches to zero
1* -weekend break in West Galicia, 2*- 70 mm mesh size, 3*-recovery plan
Figure 7.4.10.2 Nephrops FU 26+27, West Galicia and North Portugal: Long-term trends in landings, effort, LPUE and mean sizes.
ICES advice
FU 28-29: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t
Landings (males and females combined)
0
200
400
600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Cat
ches
(to
nnes
)
Fishing Mortality
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Fba
r
Males Females
Recruitment (relative to long-term average)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
R (
rela
tive
to lo
ng-t
erm
ave
rage
) Males Females
SSB (relative to long-term average)
0
50
100
150
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
SS
B (
rela
tive
to lo
ng-t
erm
ave
rage
)
Males Females
ICES advice
FU 30: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Abundan
ce s
urv
ey index
(Kg/h
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
LPUE
200-700 m of depth *LPUE
Figure 13.3.3. Nephrops in FU 30 (Gulf of Cadiz). Mean sizes of landings from 2001 to 2007 (mean ± s.e.)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mea
n s
izes
lan
din
gs
(mm
CL
)
Figure 13.3.6. Nephrops in FU 30 (Division Ixa Gulf of Cadiz).Mean size (mean ± e.s) spring botom trawl survey from 2001 to 2008.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mea
n s
ize
(mm
CL
)
??
Mean size
Landings
Survey
Landings
Management considerations
• The calculation of a TAC corresponding to a reduction in F of 10% as called for in the recovery plan was not feasible (fishery indicators too uncertain: FU 25,31, 26-27, 30) or unreliable short-term forecasts (FU 28-29)
• Since the TAC is set for the combined fishery units FU 26–30, a disproportionate amount could be taken from one or the other of the units. This could result in a higher fishing mortality on one of the stocks than had been anticipated. Finer-scale management of catches and/or effort at a geographic scale that corresponds to the distribution of the Nephrops stock should be implemented.
STOCK Advice 2009 comparison to last year
Hake IIIa, IV, VI, VIII, VIIIabd (Northern stock) 51 500 t same basis
Megrim VIIb-k, VIIIabd 1 400 t unchanged
Anglerfish VIIb-k, VIIIabd < 33 000 t unchanged
Sole VIIIabd (Bay of Biscay) < 4 430 t same basis
Nephrops VIIIab
FU 23-24: Bay of Biscay 3 400 t same basis
Hake VIIIc, IXa (Southern stock) 0 unchanged
Megrim VIIIc, IXa < 13 000 t unchanged
Anglerfish VIIIc, IXa 0 or Rplan unchanged
Nephrops VIIIc
FU 25: North Galicia 0 unchanged
FU 31: Cantabrian Sea 0 unchanged
Nephrops IXa
FU 26-27: West Galicia & North Portugal 0 unchanged
FU 28-29: Southwest & South Portugal 200 t unchanged
FU 30: Gulf Cadiz 200 t changed