Zoran Major, TE GIS, ICPDR
EDO user meeting09-10 Nov 2017, JRC, Ispra
ICPDR and Climate Changesin Danube River Basin
Danube RiverProtection Convention
signed 29 June 1994, Sofia (Bulgaria)
Protection of water & ecological resources
Sustainable useof water
Reduce nutrients & hazardous substances
ICPDR coordinates implementation of EU Water Framework Directive & EU Floods Directive on basin-wide level
Manage floods& ice hazards
GermanyAustriaCzech RepublicSlovakiaHungarySloveniaCroatia
Bosnia & HerzegovinaSerbiaMontenegroRomaniaBulgariaRep. of MoldovaUkraineEuropean Union
Contracting Parties
Coordination Mechanism
ITCH
PL
MK
AL
DEAT
CZ
UA
MD
HU
SIRS
BG
ROSK
HRBA
ICPDR
Cooperation
Bilateral agreements
Cooperation
Cooperation at sub-basin level: e.g. Sava, Tisza
Drought Flash floods
Extreme Climate events in the Danube River Basin
The population of the Danube River Basin suffered from severe floods in
2002, 2005 ,2006, 2014 …
e.g. Hungary – suffered serious drought events: During the last
century on average each 3-4 years
CLIMATE CHANGE
(…) impacts of climate change will increase and
develop into a significant threat in the Danube River
Basin
ask the ICPDR to develop until 2012 a Climate Adaptation Strategy in the Danube River Basin (…)
and ensure that climate adaptation issues are fully integrated in the second Danube River Basin Management Plan in 2015
Climate change adaptation
Starting point
Danube Climate Adaptation Strategy
Dan
ube
Clim
ate
Ada
ptat
ion
Stud
y
National Adaptation Strategies & National Management Plans
Revision and update of the Danube Study
Using the same methods to make the results comparable: No further model calculations Results are solely based on the analysis of the findings of on-going and finalized
research and development projects, studies and guidances
Evaluating changes in the scientific knowledge base and documenting still existing knowledge gaps
Comparing the findings of both studies and defining commonalities, differences and contradictions
Integrating the experiences of stakeholders
Close collaboration with experts in the Danube River Basin
Approach:
Step-wise and cyclic approach - 6-years planning cycle according to Managament Plans of EU Water Framework and EU Floods Directive
Update of Strategy in 2018 (2012 + 6 years)
ICPDR timetable
Incorporation of climate adaptation measures in cyclic Management Plans according to EU Water Framework and EU Floods Directive for the Danube basin
Some predicted CC impacts (on water related fields)Climate Change will impact the various sub-catchments, and the three Danube catchment areas (upper, middle, lower DRB) differently i.e. regional differences may increaseDischarge: Changes in mean annual runoff: strong decrease in summer, increase in winter
Flow regime modification in particular in the mountain regions due to less snow and to earlier snow melt and reduction of glaciers
Water related energy production:Energy losses due to a decrease in runoff and more low flow and flood events in the far futureIn high Alpine areas compensation of low flows with glacier melt-water in the near future. In the long term, however, the accelerated retreat of the glaciers is expected to result in decreasing water supplyUpper DRB: Mean annual hydroelectric power generation: more or less stable conditions in the near future, a decrease may appear in the far future.Due to an increase in flood events, flood related damages of runoff power plants may increase (especially Middle DRB and Lower DRB)Thermal electricity production: Insecure availability of cooling water for power generation in thermal power stationsHigher vulnerability due to higher water temperatures and lower water levels, especially in summer
Climate Change impacts on the water sector in the DRB
Joint understanding (i.e. on scenarios and related impacts) and shared knowledge base is essential for joint decision making in a trans-boundary basin
Making best use of existing structures and water management instruments
Coordination requirements – climate change is cross-cutting issue requiring interdisciplinary approach
A step-wise, cyclical and adaptive approach is needed to address uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and new scientific findings
Lessons learned andKey messages
Danube Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 14
http://www.icpdr.org/
Thank you for your kind [email protected]