IDC EspañaTop 10 Predictions 2012
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Centro Innovación BBVA, Madrid14 de diciembre de 2011
#prediccionesIDC
Compitiendo por el futuro en un mercado cada vez más complejo
AgendaAgenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
Dec-11© IDC 2
Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Revisión de las predicciones de 2011
Predicción Mensaje Métrica Acierto
La incertidumbre se vuelve a instalar en España
IDC pronosticó un crecimiento plano en 2011
TIC crecerán -1,5%, las TI el -3,5%
CIO vs CIOChief Innovation vsIntelligence vsInformation Officer
Principios 2011, 60% CIOscriterio inversión max valor y min riesgo, finales un 68%
Vuelta a las raíces Reinvención de la HP - PSG, Nokia-Microsoft,
Dec-11© IDC 3
Vuelta a las raíces Reinvención de la oferta para crear estrategias de valor
HP - PSG, Nokia-Microsoft, New Fujitsu, Google-Motorola, etc.
La demanda de tecnología consumo en eclosión
Tecnología de consumo, media y contenidos
En 2011, 3 millones más de conexiones móviles a internet frente a 1 millón desde el PC
Eclosión y guerra de los dispositivos de consumo
TIC Prosumer vs TIC Consumerization
Smartphones & tables han crecido un 22% en España
Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Revisión de las predicciones de 2011
Predicción Mensaje Métrica Acierto
Social Business coge velocidad
Tecnologías para la productividad del puesto de trabajo
El 14,7% de las empresas españolas tienen implantadas soluciones social business
Expansión del Universo Digital
Mayor presión en la gestión de la información
La información ha crecido más de un 50% en España
Dec-11© IDC 4
Digital
La batalla de la Nube
La Nube se consolida -comienza la adopción
Más del 15% de las empresas españolas ya utilizan Cloud Computing en 2011
Internet -eCommerce
Del bajo coste y la desintermediación a propuestas de valor
El negocio B2B y B2C ha crecido un 24%. +2 Millones de usuarios redes sociales.
El nuevo rol de la red
Millones de conexiones y redefinición del operador
+2 Millones de líneas M2M en España en 2011
AgendaAgenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
Dec-11© IDC 5
The Essential Equation: Costs Have to be Reduced While Expanding Market Relevance and Operational Excellence
The Essential Equation: Costs Have to be Reduced While Expanding Market Relevance and Operational Excellence
INDUSTRY BASED
NETWORK BASED
UC and collaboration
Rev
enue
Infrastructure rationalisation
and lower cost of
Dec-11© IDC 6
Increase portfolio
and service flexibility
BASED
Telecom market
2000 2015
Infrastructure
Rev
enue
and lower cost of delivery
The Old "Inside-Out" Model Gives Way to the "Outside-In"The Old "Inside-Out" Model Gives Way to the "Outside-In"
TabletsPOP
PCs
CPE
Dec-11© IDC 7
Televisions
Netbooks
Peoplemachine
Smart metres
Shifting demand patterns means a Broader Context for the Telco CIO Shifting demand patterns means a Broader Context for the Telco CIO
TabletTEL
Network Infrastructure
Own
Mobile
Dec-11© IDC 8
LCO
Own Datacentre
IT Infrastructure
Third-Party Infrastructure and Services
TVs
PCs
Smart Metres
BUSINESSES
CIO opening up digital platform: balancing the need
INDIVIDUALS
Lifestyle individual: preferred device(s), anywhere access
HOUSEHOLDS
Domestic household: balancing household
Balance of power shifting to the Demand Side: Balance of power shifting to the Demand Side:
Dec-11© IDC
balancing the need for security and process with the consumerisation of devices, applications and user behaviour
anywhere accessBrand
balancing household members' demands, budget, entertainment, educationTension with egov
9
THINGSvehicles, buildings, meters …
Embedding in process verticals
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mobile Data
Mobile Voice
Fixed Data
Fixed Voice
CAGR1%
Spending by Users on Telecom Services by CountrySpending by Users on Telecom Services by Country
$ Billions
Turkey
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mobile Data
Mobile Voice
Fixed Data
Fixed Voice
$ Billions
Germany
CAGR-2%
30
35
Spain
CAGR-1%
Dec-11© IDC
02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile Data
Mobile Voice
Fixed Data
Fixed Voice
$ BillionsRussia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile Data
Mobile Voice
Fixed Data
Fixed Voice
$ BillionsSweden
02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11
CAGR-1%
CAGR2%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile Data
Mobile Voice
Fixed Data
Fixed Voice
European Telecom Connectivity Market in Transition:What’s up and what’s not!European Telecom Connectivity Market in Transition:What’s up and what’s not!
WE Markets in Decline
150
200
250
WE Markets Growing
80
100
120$ Billions$ Billions
Dec-11© IDC
0
50
100
150
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TDM Voice Other Fixed Data
Mobile Messaging Mobile Voice
11
0
20
40
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ethernet Mobile Data
IP VPN Broadband
Source: WE Telecom Services Database, 3Q11
Fixed and Mobile Spending per Capita (2011)Fixed and Mobile Spending per Capita (2011)
US
JP
CA
AUCH
DK
SGNO
Fix
ed S
pend
ing
per
Cap
ita
Dec-11© IDC
CN
BR
DE FRGBIT
IN
ES
KR
TW
AE
DK
FI
KW
Fix
ed S
pend
ing
per
Cap
ita
Mobile Spending per Capita
12
Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11
Western Europe Client Devices Forecast shows shift to smart phones as new dominant platformWestern Europe Client Devices Forecast shows shift to smart phones as new dominant platform
250
300
350
400
M U
nits
Western Europe Client Devices Forecast
Dec-11© IDC
0
50
100
150
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
M U
nits
Desktop Notebook Mini Notebook Media Tablet Feature Phone Smartphone
Sources: IDC EMEA PC Tracker Forecast Update Q2 2011 , IDC EMEA Media Tablet and eReader Forecast - Q2 2011, Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker - 2011 Q2 - Forecast
The need for Unified communications in the workplaceThe need for Unified communications in the workplace
Dec-11© IDC 14
Security
With all of the digital components routes to Market become criticalWith all of the digital components routes to Market become critical
Dec-11© IDC 15
Key video trends drive consumer choiceKey video trends drive consumer choice
On demand
High definition
Multiscreen
?Digitization
Dec-11© IDC 16
Multiplay Connected TV
Plethora of choices allows personalized experience, but also causes confusion and inconvenience
= opportunity for operators!
Multiplatform competition
The ‘love/hate’ triangle: partners and competitorsThe ‘love/hate’ triangle: partners and competitors
Mobile operatorsControl over network performanceSome control over the user experienceSubsidises and sells mobile handsetsBilling and customer care relationship
Device brand and service brand contend with the operator brand eg: Apple, RIM (Blackberry)
Purchasing power constrains vendors’ freedom over handset features, branding
Established brands and free service model trump operators’ own brands and paid service model
Can make sure that mobile internet users see operators’ brands and services first
Dec-11© IDC 17
Device vendorsControl over device featuresControl over out-of-box software/contentSome control over the user experienceBrand loyalty
Internet service brandsEstablished user base and brand loyaltyEstablished systems & processesExpertise in media-based models
Extending device brands to internet servicesEg: Apple (iTunes), Nokia (Ovi)
Extending service brands to devicesEg: Google (Android), Microsoft (Windows Live)
handset features, branding brands and services first
Managed
Equipment
Integration
Consulting
Outsourcing
Bui
ldD
esig
n
Traditional IT servicepure-play positioning
Networkequipmentproviders
The Telco Advantage in the cloud Eco system for business customersThe Telco Advantage in the cloud Eco system for business customers
Dec-11© IDC 18
Access
Traffic
Maintenance
Managed Services
Run
Basic telecombusiness positioning
More advanced telecombusiness provisioning
Voice Data WANLANHosting/
Data-centre
Desktop/Mobile
BusinessApps
BusinessProcess
Communication services IT/business services
Telcos are One of the Possible Deliverers of the Final ServiceTelcos are One of the Possible Deliverers of the Final Service
MNC
SME
Dec-11© IDC 19
Consumer
Devices
MobileDevices & Apps
MobileBroadband
CloudServices
Big Data/ Analytics
Social Business
Third Platform for Industry GrowthThird Platform for Industry Growth
Millions
Trillionsof “Things”
Dec-11© IDC
& Apps
2011
PC
LAN/Internet
Client-Server
1986
Millions of Users
Thousands of Apps
Hundreds of Millions of Users
Tens of Thousandsof Apps
Billionsof Users
Millionsof Apps
of “Things”
AgendaAgenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
Dec-11© IDC 21
La recuperación tendrá que esperarLa recuperación tendrá que esperar
Escenario 1: Mayor Integración
Escenario 2:Ruptura del Euro
¿Qué quiere ser europa?
Dec-11© IDC
... Con riesgo de recesión... Con riesgo de recesión
Índice R (Recesión)
Dec-11© IDC
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fuente: Google insigth
Mercado TIC en perspectivaMercado TIC en perspectiva
4%
8%
07 08 09 10 13 14 150%
TI
TIC
11 12
Dec-11© IDC
-4%
-8%
07 08 09 10 13 14 150%
C
11 12
Software
IT ServicesHardware
La composicón del mercadoLa composicón del mercado
2011
HardwareIT Services
2012
Software
Dec-11© IDC
2011
Telecom services
2012
Telecom services
>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%
Client system Client system
Zoom en el hardwareZoom en el hardware
2011
2012
Dec-11© IDC
Server system
Periphrals& add ons
Periphrals& add ons
>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%
Storage
Network equipment
Storage2011
2012
Server system
Network equipment
Personal computer Personal computer
Zoom en ”Client systems”Zoom en ”Client systems”
2011
Tabl
ets
& e
Rea
ders
Tabl
ets
& e
Rea
ders
2012
Dec-11© IDC
>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%
2011
SmartphonesSmartphones
2012
2012: Salto digital de los clientes…U
sabi
lidad
LBSRealidad aumentada Nueva era de
Dec-11© IDC
Usa
bilid
ad
Proliferación dispositivosServicios cloud
LBSMedios de pagoApp. MóvilesB.A. Móvil
Realidad aumentada MultitouchReconocimiento vozPatrones movimiento
Nueva era de servicios de
consumo
2012: punto de no retorno de …
+ Redes sociales
+ Adopción de Dispositivos
+ Barrera personal/profesional
Dec-11© IDC
•Infraestructura: Ruptura ciclo de vida
•Estrategia : Mitigación de riesgos
•Operaciones : Complejidad del soporte
AgendaAgenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
Dec-11© IDC 30
4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación
Dec-11© IDC
4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación
Nuevos modelos de negocio
Dec-11© IDC
Crece la madurez en Social Business
Las personas son el centro
Consistencia Cultura
Gestión Conocimiento
5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada
Dec-11© IDC
5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada
Personas con sensores
M2M: el pegamento
Internet of Things
Nuevos modelos de negocio
Dec-11© IDC
e-care-healthSmart grids
Dispositivos inteligentes
6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones
Dec-11© IDC
6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones
No Sí
Dec-11© IDC
Flujo continuo de datos
No Sí
AgendaAgenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
Dec-11© IDC 37
7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales
Dec-11© IDC
7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán verticales
#3 Vijay Govindarajan
Dec-11© IDC
#3 Vijay Govindarajan“Reverse Innovation”
8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TICAn innovation that is disruptive allows a whole new population of consumers access to a product or service that was historically only accessible to consumers with a lot of money or a lo t of skill . Characteristics of disruptive businesses, at least in their initial stages, can include: lower gross margins, smaller target markets, and simpler products and
services that may not appear as attractive as existing solutions when
compared against traditional performance metrics .
Dec-11© IDC
#1 Clayton Christensen“Disruptive Innovation”
compared against traditional performance metrics .
8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC
Outsourced Public CloudOptimization
Low
PartnershipPublic
Service
Business
Zero-Defect, Zero-Defect, Enablers
Service D
elivery S
upply Chain
Gre
ater
Inte
grat
ion
Acr
oss
Clo
ud
(Priv
ate
to P
ublic
)
“Convergence” of Private to Public Cloud Services”
Key to Market Inflexion
Greater Integration Across Public Digital
Services Supply Chain Elements
Dec-11© IDC
HybridService Delivery Maturity
Zero-Defect, Carrier Class,
Automated Delivery
Zero-Defect, Carrier-Class,
Automated Service Delivery
Model
EcosystemPrivate
Low
2010 2020
Outsourced Private CloudTransformation and Optimization
Service Delivery Model Key
SaaS (Operations)
IaaS (Operations)
PaaS (Development)
TaaS (Testing)
Enablers to
Market Creation
Service D
elivery S
upply Chain
Gre
ater
Inte
grat
ion
Acr
oss
Clo
ud
Typ
es(P
rivat
e to
Pub
lic)
Greater Integration Across Private Digital Services Supply Chain
Elements
8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC
Dec-11© IDC
#2 W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne
“Blue Ocean Strategy”
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos
Dec-11© IDC
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos
Dec-11© IDC
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos
Dec-11© IDC
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos
15%Conversión
1.8Meses
201017 meses
201119 meses
Interacción
Dec-11© IDC
Conversión
42% Conversión
31,5% Conversión
50% Conversión
44% Conversión
22,5% Conversión
Meses
3.1Meses
3.5 Meses
5.3Meses
1.3Meses
4.1Meses
Interacción Personal
Interacción Digital
SQL/WIN = 22%
Contacto/SQL = 7%
Exploración
Evaluación
Compra
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la transformación en tiempos complejos
CIO
90’s Actualidad
Grupo Decisión
Dec-11© IDC
Fuerza Comercial
Fuentes Independientes
90’s
Fuerza Comercial
Fuentes Independientes
Actualidad
AgendaAgenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
Dec-11© IDC 48
4 Disruptive Forces Will Drive 2012 Growth 4 Disruptive Forces Will Drive 2012 Growth
Dec-11© IDC
The Third Platform for IT Industry Growth & Innovation
But They Are Connected to Each Other But They Are Connected to Each Other
Dec-11© IDCCopyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
By 2020, when the ICT industry reaches $5 trillion — $1.7 trillion larger than it is today —at least 80% of the industry's growth will driven 3rd Platform technologies and solutions.
2012 Will Be About Competing for 20202012 Will Be About Competing for 2020
Dec-11© IDCCopyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
technologies and solutions.
In 2012, battles to lead the ICT marketplace of 2020 will start to be won and lost.
Emerging Markets Impact Is GrowingEmerging Markets Impact Is Growing
Emerging markets will account for 28% of global IT spending in 2012
�14% growth over 2011
�53% of all 2012 IT spending growth
China will pass Japan in IT spending
Dec-11© IDC Dec-11© 2011 IDC 6
�With 28% of emerging markets spend, and 2012 growth of almost 20%
Emerging markets products and vendors will drive into developed markets
In 2012, It Is Vital to Join the "Lead Pack"In 2012, It Is Vital to Join the "Lead Pack"
2012 will be “like” 2011, but very different:• Mobile devices will have won decisively• Cloud platform battles will be in full force• Social technologies will be a “must have”• Big Data will be next essential capability• Vertical competency will be at the core of
next-generation solutions
Dec-11© IDC Dec-11© 2011 IDC 15
next-generation solutions• Emerging markets are already the new
center of growth, driving new design points• New players will no longer be “disruptors”• Incumbents will face “crossroads” moments
Requires greater urgency, to jump aboard the third platform, and join the “lead packs”
AgendaAgenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
Dec-11© IDC 54
Dec-11© IDC 55
Las cosas están cambiandoLas cosas están cambiando
Dec-11© IDC 56
The Asia/Pacific IT MarketsPriority Geographies
Market Growth
Emerging GrowthThai: $6.6B
9.4% Mal: $6.6B9.1%
Dec-11© IDC
Market Size
AdvancedNZ: $4.2B6.2%
Tai: $6.8B6.1%
HK: $7B8%
9.1%
Source: IDC vQ3 2010 APJ Blackbook, Nov 2010 (All data for 2011 in US$, 2011 YoY)
Este puede ser el momentomás fascinante para estar
en esta industria .
Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
en esta industria .
¡Aprovechémoslo!
Sí, lo es…
Big DataEnterprise MobileNext
ConsumerizationSocial Business
Cloud Computing Adoption Trends
LATAM
Dec-11© IDC
LATAMAPAC
Oriente MedioEuropa del Este
Esto te hace responsable de detectar cada oportunidad, de
liderar tu futuro.
Ghandi decía que no quería seguidores, sino líderes.
Dec-11© IDC
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Dec-11© IDC 62
La oferta de IDC es muy amplia, déjanos que te la expliquemos con detalle!
Feliz Navidad
y
Dec-11© IDC
y
Próspero Año 2012
63
Dec-11© IDC
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