IDMP/DMCSEEFOLLOW-UP TOPICS From ideas to proposal
4th WorkshopIntegrated Drought Management
Programme in Central and Eastern EuropeBucharest, Romania, April 19-22, 2015
dr. Andreja Sušnik
Meteorological OfficeDrought management center for SEE [email protected]
IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE
Widden the pool
Main topics
Discussion and ideas
1st round of discussion
Widden the pool4th DMCSEE International Steering Committee meeting and 3rd Global Water Partnership IDMP-CEE workshop,
Hungary, Budapest, 2 – 4 October 2014
Document (project topics) launched by GWP & DMCSEE –February 2015 (deadline for comments, suggestions until31st March 2015).
o IDMP GWP CEE partners & DMCSEE steering committee(including ad hoc working group) were invited to participate;
o Project consultant funded by GWP;
o Content: results of IDMP CEE with the goal to increase thecapacity of CEE to adapt to climatic variability byenhancing resilience to drought;
o Outcomes of DMCSEE projects & operational work.
4 major thematic areas were proposed:
o DROUGHT MONITORING
o UPGRADING DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT (DROUGHT RISK ATLAS FOR CEE/SEE)
o DROUGHT COST ASSESSMENT
o DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
DISSEMINATION
Project topics/ideas
5
3rd PRG comments & suggestions:
o IDMP CEE Activities: Lot of work is half-way, but very valuable and can easily be lost. Follow-up is urgently required.
o Development pro-active Drought Management Plan in an integrated land and water management framework, incl. WFD RBMPs
o Thinking in a two temporal scales modes- Operational mode (ongoing (multiple-year) drought, next
year drought)- Strategic mode (far future drought, prepared for global
change).o Corner stones activities (10 steps of drought DMP)
o How to write winning proposal? (again steps), consortium, core group/coordinator, guidelines…
IDMP wrap up for follow-up
6
IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE
Widden the pool
Main topics
Discussion and ideas
1st round of discussion
Description:o Development of products for improved drought monitoring end early warning
system (operational mode?) in CEE and SEE – connection to DMCSEE and EDO platforms. All types of drought monitoring!
o Focus on REMOTE SENSING (Eumetsat – Land monitoring services,
Copernicus, higher spatial/temporal resolution).o IDMP CEE: demonstration project 5.5 (agricultural drought) & follow up ideas
Implementation in follow-up project:o State-of-the-art analysis (CEE /SEE RS monitoring, case studies).
o Promote new RS products (experimental fields/verification).
o Analysis of existing RS methodologies in the region (case studies).
o Combining various approaches (RS, field measurements, crop simulationmodels) to estimate vegetation drought status.
o Recommendations for operational use of RS in drought monitoring in the region.
Thematic area 1: Drought
monitoring („working title“)
9
EDO key points/next steps
o EDO is implemented as a multi-scale distributed system based on interoperable map servers.
o Core indicators are implemented at all scales. They are complemented by regionally relevant indicators.
o Continuous stakeholder involvement ensures both sound results and the acceptance of the system.
EDO next Steps:
o Increase the number of indicators at European level.
o Enlarge the number of interoperable observatories.
o Improve medium to long-range forecasting
o Hazard & risk analysis (incl. CC scenarios)
Description:o Civil Protection Mechanism, EC decision (No. 1313/2013/EU) requires from
the Member States (in Article 6) to prepare RISK ASSESSMENTS on
national and sub national levels ( by the end of 2015); update every three years.
o Obligation of each government to prepare the disaster risk assessment. List of disasters are left to decision of the member states (next reporting cycle – end of 2018).
Implementation in follow-up project (outcomes):o State-of–the-art analysis. o Promotion of the same approach - drought risk assessment according to ECs
Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management (3 steps approach: risk identification - risk analysis – risk evaluation).
o Cooperation with “Civil protection” - responsible for preparation of the “risk assessment plans” in countries.
Thematic area 2: Upgrading
drought risk assessment
13
Regional multisectoral drought impacts
In past decades the drought-related damages in the region of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) havehad large impact on the economy and welfare, mainly reflected in destroyed crops anddevastaded farmland, disturbed water-supply, hydroenergy, transport, ….
Vir: Tuzla – problemi sa vodoopskrbo. Sutra, 2011
Last DMCSEE projectsmainly focused on agriculture, limited in forestry.
From droughts to floods in SEEWorld Bank. 2015. SEE Regular Economic Report
Obrenovac, Serbia
Obrenovac, Serbia
Description:
o Developing Drought Risk Atlas for SEE and CEE.
o While this process can take up to 3 years (example from USA) it is envisaged to first choose “pilot areas” where foundations for such an atlas will be developed.
o Drought Risk Atlas as a web-based tool that provides visualizations of historic drought data for specific locations.
Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes):o Selection of a pilot areas.o Selections of drought indices.o Climate change projections.
Thematic area 2.1: Drought risk
atlas for CEE/SEE
16
Including climate changeprojections
(EEA, 2012)
Mean relative changes in water-limited crop yield simulated by
the ClimateCrop model for the 2050s compared with
1961–1990 for 12 different climate models projections under the A1B emission scenario.
Description:
o Classification of the costs related to droughts; fixed, direct and indirect, non-market.
o Comparison in different pilot areas, development of commonmethodology.
o Cost of mitigation and climate change adaptation costs.
Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes):o Methodology for assessment of the drought costs will be developed (or
test already developed methodology – CONHAZ project).o Innovative financial instruments for drought risk management (insurance) o Few pilot areas within partners’ countries will be selected where
methodology will be tested. o Cooperation with “economists”.o Common platform for financial instruments.
Thematic area 3: Drought cost
assesment
18
Description:o Some of the information about the current status for CEE countries can be
taken for example from the two IDMP CEE outputs – Review of the current status (act. 1.2) and the Guidelines for preparation of the Drought Management Plan according to the WFD (act. 2.1)
Implementation in the follow-up project:o Proposed scheme would be adjusted for the region CEE&SEE.o Partners within the project/activity will update the scheme according to their
current status.o Policy recommendations for improvement of the current drought
management within each country will be prepared and presented to the decision-makers (on a regional and national level).
Thematic area 4: Drought
management
20
Where to include droughtmanagement?
o The integrated water resources management is advocated in EU WFD, and number of policies however the implementation of that approach is missing;
o to propose management options (decision support for suppliers and authorities).
…based on identified weaknesses
Guidelines for DMPo To launch the initiatives focused on harmonization of methods used
for development of the main elements of DMP:o assessment of historical drought events,o drought indicator system in connection with drought
monitoring,o thresholds for classification of drought stages,o early warning system.
o To develop guidelines for the weakest elements of planning process:o risk assessment (single and multiply risks assessment)o climate change assessment
o To initiate demonstration projects focused on quantitative water management issues (e.g. e-flows, water accounts)
http://www.droughtmanagement.info/
Activity 7.1: Developing a Compendium of good practices
10 Countries that form GWP Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) – 7 steps???
Description:
o New approaches how to get to the end users; how to transfer the knowledge, experiences, products not only to research institutes, ministries, etc. but to the stakeholders which can use the products (farmers, insurance companies, water managers, public authorities, …).
o From experiences in IDMP CEE - still a lot to do also in terms of raising awareness about drought conditions in the region (IDMP Helpdesk)
Implementation in the follow-up project:o Raising awareness campaigns (involving national TVs, radios, social media)o Journalist workshopo Decision makers workshop (WMO, FAO?)o Specialized seminars for end users (e.g. farmers), open dayso Organize a field visit to an already working projecto Social media campaigno Toolbox for children
Thematic area (1-4):
Dissemination – end users
24
Hot spot - short summary, short insight of possible circumstances of drought at the time of issue.
Additional and auxiliary information (such as methodology used, more detailed information on water balance or temperature situation)
Report on impacts (more aboutagricultural drought impacts is missing!)
Outlook
Drought Bulletin for SE Europe (missionof DMCSEE adhocgroup)
IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE
Widden the pool
Main topics
Discussion and ideas (work in groups)
1st round of discussion
1. Monitoring : Early drought warning in Europe/SEE (drought & floods)
o active countries participation in existing platforms (global, regional – EDO, DMCSEE), exchange information inside/outside the countries;
o making best use of existing structures and water management instruments(River Basin and Flood Risk Management Plans, Drought and water scarcity)
o further research requirements – e.g. remote sensing, drought forecast...
2. Drought risk assessment
2.1 Drought Atlas (SE Europe)!!
3. Drought costs
o Economic costs of drought /adaptation
o Financial instruments.
Ideas for discussion – working in
4 groups
32
Ideas for discussion4. Drought management as a part of national legislation (national commitments)
o Europe/WFD/EU policy, UNCCD/NAP/RAP, Danube strategy;
o Joint understanding (i.e. on scenarios and related impacts) and shared knowledge base is essential for joint decision making (flood & droughtmanagement synergies);
o Socio-economic developments should be included;
o How to reach political commitment? Support of WMO, UNCCD, FAO,….
Common projects/calls
o GWP/IDMP, EUMETSAT, Danube, ARIMNET, Interreg, Horizon 2020, LIFE+;
o secondment of staff (WMO support),
o training schools (G-WADI, DMCSEE).
Public awareness and stakeholders cooperation
o drought news/information sharing/campaigns;
o networks/publications .