Climate change & development
Research & policy in Ghana
IDRC-RIPS
African Adaptation Research Centres
June 2011
Sean DOOLAN, DFID
Climate-development
challenges & opportunities
How communicate, translate, engage, inform, convince?
Challenges
Risks reversing development gains
Weakens future options
Fit for future purpose, not past or current purpose
Going beyond projects & “environment”
Opportunities
New CC focus on development priorities
More integrated development
Longer-term perspective
New opportunities, scaling up
Big picture 1?
Sub-national
National
Sub-regional
Regional
Global
Community
Household
UNFCCC
Negotiations
Sectors
Food &
agriculture
Big picture 2?
HealthWater
Public
Private
Civil society
Attitudes matter
• Find time
• Find contacts
Geoff Barnard (CDKN) The Knowledge Pond
www.researchtoaction.org
www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/
I’m a researcher, not a
journalist
Communication often an afterthought
At worst a distraction from ‘real work’
Language matters
• Translate
• Go behind perceptions
• Understand interests
• Relationships matter
• Find the right words & image
www.researchtoaction.org
www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/
Concepts & words matter
The green house effect?
“Green gases”?
… or trotro effect?
Remote deforestation?
… or trees you can touch?
Climate change & uncertainty – past guide?
“CC models are uncertain, so is the science, let’s wait”
• Economic projections are also uncertain
• Oil & fuel prices?
“I can confidently predict that you will not see oil prices
rising above $30 a barrel in your lifetimes”
BP Chief Economist 2001
• Oil prices: $30-120 per barrel? GHC for a litre?
• Times & contexts change
• “Secure sources” are temporary
• They change as politics & markets change
• So do prices
Climate change & uncertainty – past guide?
Source: www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs
BP prediction• Politics & markets change
• So do windows of opportunity
Climate change & uncertainty – past guide?
Gold prices: $25-600/oz?
Source: http://goldnews.bullionvault.com
Gold prices: $260-1560/oz?
Noisy information – clarify for audience
Sub-basin
Wet
Scenario
Dry
Scenario
Black Volta
Oti Basin
SW Ghana
Volta Lake& SE
White & Red
Volta
-10
+3
+17
+51
+8
-30
-29
+2
-16
-30
• Large transboundary effects
• Uncertainty is substantial
• Need risk management
Uncertainty – rainfall & run-offProjected % runoff changes for major sub-basins in 2050
Source: EACC (WB)
Floods
Transport modalities
Corridors
Shifting vulnerabilities
Hotspots
Livelihoods
Health & education
Facilities & services
Logistics
Market access
Private sector
Exports, balance of trade
Competitiveness
Roads maintenance budget
2020
Temperature Change 0C
High
Low
20502040
High increase in north
“2 oC = Dangerous CC”
Implications?
• growth, agriculture
• N/S divide
• health services, energy?
The past is not a guide Ghana dry scenario - oC change from base
Source: EACC (WB)
2030
Climate & development now – tell the story
“The rains are all late and finish early”
• Repeated climate shocks & stresses affect lives & families
• Children underweight in North, longer hunger season
• Migration evident & increasing across Ghana
• Buruli ulcers - water gathering where aquatic insects live
• Impacts on crops, e.g. cocoa livelihoods & exports
Policy-research & influence/1
• Map networks & decision makers
• Map influences & opinion formers
• Communicate & network
• Make research accessible
• Translate, meet or create needs
• Keep information flowing
• Report & keep in touch
Fast-moving & crowded agenda
Weaving Global Networks
Policy-research & influence/2
• Develop & service relationships
• Cultivate & use intermediaries• Advisors, officials, NGOs, media, Parliament, DPs
• Know your audience - who/what/when?• Votes, budgets, funds, profile
• Livelihoods, lives
• Write press releases & briefs - hooks
• Monitor, reflect, evaluate, report
Fast-moving & crowded agenda
Climate change toolkit
Background information
science, impacts, tackling CC, priorities
Role of Parliamentarians
Representation
Constituency, backbench work
Committees
Scrutiny
Legislation
Parliamentarians can’t act alone
International negotiations
International partnerships
Partners on the groundwww.cpaBranchUK.org
Translate, engage, inform, convince
“Human beings …
underestimate the
importance of situation
and context.”
Malcolm Gladwell
The Tipping Point
Theory of change – focus, what/who/when?
www.researchtoaction.org/theory-of-change-useful-resources/
Translate, engage, inform
Legislators make decisions quickly
Inundated with information
Often generalists dealing with specialist work
Meet an expressed need
Explain complexity in easy language
Present credible, non-partisan research
Present complex information – legible & readable in length & simplicity
Respond to alarmingly short deadlines
Briefs are brief – 90 second pitch
Delhi Parliament - PRS Legislative Research
Briefs no longer than six pages
Soundbites for speeches
Include graphs with written explanations
some look at graphs, others read words
Use ‘friends’ as guinea pigs to ensure can be understood by intelligent reader
Cite sources
Have a brief summary (1-2 paras on front page)
It’s a muddy pond
Research not the only missing ingredient in better policy making
Many reasons why research may be dismissed, ignored or misunderstood
Researchers & communicators need to ‘get their feet wet’ to understand these realities
Learn how to be most effective
Understand the demand side
Climate SMART - disablers
• Denial: someone else’s problem, too busy, too
complex, I’m too small to make a difference
• Lack of demand
• Lack of learning from others
• Political inconsistency or apathy
• Competing & inconsistent demands & needs
• Uncertainty
Climate SMART – tackling disablers
• Apply 80 - 20 rule – what will give most value?
• Clarity – what impact = focus
• Messaging – change the narrative, tell stories of
success, learn from failures
• Benchmarking – for improvement, for peer to peer
pressure & review
• Reframe - in terms of the outcome you want, not the
problem you have
• Use trusted outsiders to kick-start, mentor, encourage
• Alliances – network of like-minded organisations,
community of practice & peers
The future starts now
• International political momentum & negotiations
• Widening debate on climate change
• How ensure development objectives?
• How widen & inform constituency?
• How position?
• How ACT?
• Now
• Differently
• Together