In Northern Mists:Bering Climate-Present and Future
James Overland, Phyllis Stabeno,Muyin Wang and Nick Bond
NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Historical Global Temperatures
J. Hansen
20C3M
11 models have decadal signal
PIcntrl 10 models have decadal signal
Wang et al., J. Climate, in press
20th Century Arctic Winter Temperature Anomalies from International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ModelsBlack line is Observations
Change in Bering Sea in 2006Arctic still warm overall
Surface Air Temperature Anomalies
February Ice Anomalies
2000-2005
2006
Bering Sea Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature change compared to 1980-1999
Under IPCC middle CO2 Scenario
Bering Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature Anomaly (Relative to 1980-99 mean)
IPCC A1B emissions scenario
Bering Sea Ice Anomaly (March) relative to 1979-99 Period Mean
Ratio (%) of Ice Area Decrease by 2050
50%
20502000
Difference in Sea Level Pressure2050-2100 Minus 1950-2000
Salathe, GRL, 2006
Summary• Continued warming and loss of sea ice for Bering Sea
• Must consider large natural variability in near term climate projections
• Warming trend due to greenhouse gases as large as natural variability by 2030
• Climate trajectory is important to ecosystem reorganization-Pollock ride out a cold swing?
• Most likely, rate of warming will slow for Alaska and Bering Sea, as we were in local temperature maximum
State of the Arctic Report
●A review of 2000-2005 was conducted by an international group of 20 scientists who developed a consensus on information content and reliability.
●This Report was conceived as an update to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.
www.arctic.noaa.gov/soa2006/