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In the aftermath of Copenhagen
Reimund Schwarze
Panel presentation at the IGEL conference workshop 2010 session:
The Future of Carbon
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Content
1. International Climate Negotiations2. The Copenhagen Accord
3. Pledges by developed and developing countries
4. Success or failure?
5. Events of the year
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International Climate Negotiations
1. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs to avoiddangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (Art. 2)
Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (Art. 3)
194 signatories, Organ: Conference of the Parties (COP)
2. Kyoto-Protocol
Legally binding commitments of developed countries (Annex B) to emissionsreductions of 6 GHGs until 2012, marked-based instruments (IET, CDM, JI)
190 signatories, Organ: COP serving as the meeting of the Parties to theKyoto Protocol (CMP)
3. Bali-Roadmap Ad hoc Working Group Long Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA)
Ad hoc Working Group Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)
4. Gleneagles-Processes (G8+x)
Heiligendamm, Toyaku, LAquila,
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The Copenhagen Accord
1. 2C-goal
2. Deep cuts in global emissions "as soon as possible"
3. Voluntary commitments to emissions targets for 2020in developed countries (Annex I)
4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)in developing countries (Non-Annex I)
Domestic measurement, reporting and verification (mrv), ifnotinternationally funded
Reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)
5. Scaled up, new and additional funding
$30 billion from 2010-2012, $100 billion per year by 2020
Copenhagen Green Climate Fund/High-Level Panel
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Developed countries pledges
Annex I countryKyoto Target
(baseyear 1990)Aired 2020 reduction
target before CopenhagenCopenhagen Accord (as
of 2/4/2010)
CopenhagenAccord
(baseyear 1990)Australia +8% 5-15-25% below 2000 5-15-25% below 2000 -2 to -22%
Canada -6% 20% below 2006 17% below 2005 3%
Croatia -5% 6% above 1990 5% below 1990 +6%
EU27 -8% 20-30% below 1990 20-30% below 1990 -20 to -30%
Iceland +10% 15% below 1990 30% below 1990 -30%Japan -6% 25% below 1990 25% below 1990 -25%
New Zealand 0% 10-20% below 1990 10-20% below 1990 -10 to -20%
Norway +1% 30-40% below 1990 30-40% below 1990 -30 to -40%
Russian Fed. 0% 10-25% below 1990 15-25% below 1990 -15 to -25%
Switzerland -8% 20-30% below 1990 -20 to -30%Ukraine 0% 20% below 1990 -20%
USA -7% 17-20% below 2005 17% below 2005 -3%
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Developing countries pledges
Non Annex I country Copenhagen Accord (as of 2/4/2010)
Brazil 36.1-38.9% below BAU
China 40-45% below 2005 per unit GDP
Costa Rica significant deviation from BAU; long-term carbon neutrality
India 20-25% below 2005 per unit GDPIndonesia 26-41% below BAU
Maldives 100%
Mexico 30% below BAU
South Korea 30% below BAU
Singapore 16% below BAU
South Africa 34% below BAU
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EU 27
EU27s low ambition target of 20% below 1990
would not meet the proposed long-term target of80-95% below 1990 by 2050
Inadequate
Role model
Medium
Sufficient
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Developed countries aggregate
Developed countries aggregate reductions7-14% below 1990 levels by 2020does not meet 25-40% range consistent with
lowest stabilization scenario in IPCC
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Russian Federation
Surplus emission allowances from Kyoto periodfor all developed countriesestimated to be 9 -11 GtCO2eq
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India
Target of 20 to 25% below 2005emissions per unit GDPequivalent to business as usual
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China
Target of 40 to 45% below 2005emissions per unit GDPequivalent to business as usual
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Brazil
Roughly half of emissions from forestry
Reduction of 36.1-38.9% below BAU,majority from reduction in deforestation
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Can the 2C-goal be achieved?
Source: M. Meinshausen, www.primap.org
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Summing up
1. Copenhagen Accord goal of limiting warming tobelow 2C is not consistentwith current 2020 emission reduction targets
2. Developed country aggregate
does not meet 25-40% below 1990 rangeconsistent with lowest stabilization scenario in IPCC
3. Surplus emission allowances and forestry accountingcan significantly impact the functioning
of global emissions trading4. To achieve stated Copenhagen Accord goal,
countries should adopt longer term emission reductiongoals (at least 50% below 1990 globally by 2050)
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Success or failure?
Important step ahead:
Defining the meaning of Art. 2 UNFCCC (2C-goal)
First time all major emitters involved
but major weaknesses: Purely political decision, not legally binding
Voluntary pledge and review system
Lacking verification for unilateral activities in
developing countries Missing linkages to global emission trading
Missing long-term targets (2050), no peaking year:
inconsistent with 2C goal!
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OUT LOOK: Events of the year
9.- 11. Apr, Bonn, Climate talks (procedural aspects)
2.- 4. May, Bonn, Petersberg Conference,
(Meeting of environmental ministers of 50 nations;chaired by Merkel and Caldern)
31. May - 11. Jun, Bonn (subsidiary bodies)
29. Nov - 10. Dec, Mexico City, COP16 & CMP 6TIME TO ACTDAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS
00:00:00:00