Download - Indie Game Metrics - October 2009 Update

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:The Metrics, Oct. 2009

Simon Carless[Independent Games Festival/Summit Chairman,

Game Developer magazine/Gamasutra publisher.]Digital Distribution Summit, Melbourne

[NOTE: This is the metrics section of a larger speech I gave in Australia in October 2009. See my GDC China slides - also hosted

on slideshare.net/simoniker for the remainder.]

*’Rules’ not actually rules, subject to change.


What are your market’s sales trends? (Note: 30%-50% revenue to most aggregator/distributors.)

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:The Metrics, Oct. 2009 Market Analysis: PlayStation Network

- PlayStation 3 has sold 24.6 million worldwide (August 2009)- 27 million PSN members (as of August 2009) on PS3, PSP, and

PlayStation.com member accounts.- Since Nov. 2006, 105+ downloadable PS3 games on U.S. Store,

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:The Metrics, Oct. 2009 Market Analysis: PlayStation Network

- Flow sold 120,000 copies worldwide between February and September 2007 (cited by Sony in Game Informer.)

- Shatter sold 30,000 copies in first week+ in August 2009, 47,000 on Leaderboards by early September.

- Burnout Paradise (not indie and $30 at the time, but still PSN) sold 20,000 units in first 3 weeks after Sept. 2008 launch.

- Noby Noby Boy sold ‘about’ 100,000 from Feb. to August 2009.

- Battlefield 1943 sold 600,000 copies across XBLA and PSN in first 2 weeks in August 2009 (est. 250,000 PSN).

- Burn Zombie Burn sold 70,000 copies from March to August 2009.

- Astro Tripper - approx. 15,000 on Leaderboards from December 2008 to April 2009, inching up since then.

- Super Stardust has 331,700 on Leaderboards for Arcade mode.- PSN talking points: ‘first party’ indies; rise of ‘true’ third parties;

demo/payment integration issues; regional submission issues, lack of competition?


Worldwide Sales Estimates: PlayStation Network

*Massive disclaimers apply - Sept. 2009 update.

LOW-END: 10-35,000 units, if your game doesn't strike a chord with the public or is poorly marketed. (40% of games)

MID-END: 35-75,000 units, if you get some Sony marketing support (e.g. via PlayStation Blog) or good developer PR.) (40% of games)

HIGH-END: 75,000-300,000 units, if you have critical mass behind you, mass Sony support, and... a great game! (20% of games)


Market Analysis: Xbox Live Arcade

- Xbox 360 has sold 31 million worldwide (August 2009)- Xbox Live has 20 million users (August 2009)- Since Nov. 2004, 248 downloadable XBLA games on U.S. Store,


Market Analysis: Xbox Live Arcade

- Trials HD sold 300,000 from mid-August to mid-September 2009.

- Battlefield 1943 sold 600,000 copies across XBLA and PSN in first 2 weeks in August 2009 (est. 350,000 XBLA).

- Sales _generally_ 80-90% of leaderboard numbers.- Leaderboard numbers as of mid-Sept 2009:

High end: Shadow Complex: 290,000 ; Trials HD - 357,000 ; Castle Crashers: 1.26 million; Splosion Man - 160,000

- Mid: Defense Grid; 52,000 ; Worms 2; 52,000- Low: Lode Runner HD; 19,000; Invincible Tiger:

3,800; Penny Arcade Adventures Ep.2: 23,300.- VGChartz/Fade LLC (fairly) accurate here.- XBLA talking points: Microsoft’s changing whims, high

barrier to entry, increased competition, unified submissions, good demo structure, new quality ratings, Summer Of Arcade, Xbox Live Indie Games?


Worldwide Sales Estimates: Xbox Live Arcade

*Massive disclaimers apply, note long LTD/pricing issues.


MID-END: 50-100,000 units, if you get good developer PR and produce an effective demo. (40% of games)

HIGH-END: 150,000-500,000 units, if you have true critical mass behind you and a... great game! (20% of games)


Market Analysis: WiiWare

- Wii has sold 52.62 million worldwide (June 2009)- Since May 2008, 126 downloadable WiiWare games on U.S. Store,- Also notable: over 310 Virtual Console games on U.S. store (competition).


Market Analysis: WiiWare

-.No public WiiWare download numbers, EVER. (Why?)- My estimates: big hits like World Of Goo = 300,000+ (Top

5 all-time)- Anecdotal: some well-known, well-executed ‘core’ titles

have only done 20-30,000 (mid-range).- Very few titles didn’t make minimum payment rate in U.S.,

other territories. (<6,000 U.S.). - VGChartz/Fade LLC charts better on high end, orders of

magnitude off on low end (estimated dropoff issues). - Some Fade numbers: My Aquarium = 490,000 (20% too

high?); Texas Hold ‘Em Tournament = 88,000 (100s of % too high?)

- WiiWare talking points: payment, demo & storage issues, ease of approval (except physical office), game quality variability, Virtual Console competition, danger in lack of data.

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:The Metrics, Oct. 2009 Worldwide Sales Estimates: WiiWare

*Massive disclaimers apply


MID-END: 25-40,000 units, if you have a good fit for the Wii audience or good developer PR. (30% of games)

HIGH-END: 50,000-350,000 units, if you have a title that fits Wii gamers great, good use of hardware, a familiar concept, and... a great game! (10% of games)


Market Analysis: iPhone

-

- Installed base of iPhone = >25 million est., iPod Touch = 20 million (Sept 2009) = >45 million total.

- Over 85,000 apps/games in App Store across all categories, 2 billion downloads as of Sept. 2009

- >16,000 of these are games! That's an average of >35 per day since launch (and rapidly increasing).

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:The Metrics, Oct. 2009 Market Analysis: iPhone/iPod Touch

- Super Monkey Ball sold 500,000 units as of November 2008 at as high as $9.99 (!!) - MAJOR EXCEPTION.

- iShoot was #1 in the App Store in January 2009 with 17,000 downloads at $2.99 each - in one day - $35,700 to developer.

- Creator of Blocked was selling 5-15 units per day until he price dropped to $0.99, hit #1 and sold 10-15,000 units per day (March 2009 interview)

- Firemint’s Flight Control - over 1.5 million units (at $0.99) from March to October 2009.

- Anecdotal: 20,000-25,000 (with high exceptions)#1, ‘mid thousands’ for top 10, top 100 is ‘mid-high hundreds’ for that day.

- iPhone talking points: gold rush (gold rush, gold rush!), watch success curve, Apple relationship, surprising revenue charts, Top 100 is (almost) everything, portfolios/cross-promotion vital.

- SIDENOTE: My thoughts on Sony’s PSPGo, Nintendo DSi. (iPhone conversions possible, high barrier to entry, but market size + retail competition questions.)

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:The Metrics, Oct. 2009 Market Analysis: iPhone/iPod Touch

*Massive disclaimers apply, there may be outliers, etc.

LOW-END: 100-1,500 units, if your game doesn't break out of the morass. (85% of games)

MID-END: 1,500-5,000 units, if you have some marginal success, perhaps sneak into the Top 100. (10% of games)

HIGH-END: 5,000-1,500,000+ units, if you can break into the top of the charts and sustain interest (5% of games).


Market Analysis: PC/Web Games The PC/web Game market is gigantic (1 billion

PCs worldwide as of March 2008 - Gartner), but let’s split it into:

- Single-player PC downloadable (+retail) indie games.

- Single-player Flash/web browser games.- Multiplayer microtransaction/mini-subscription

funded web browser games, including social network games.


Market Analysis: PC Downloadable Games

- Selling directly on your own website and via Steam and other download sites (Direct2Drive, Greenhouse, Gamersgate) can be a great way to power your game.

- Public examples of non-affiliate sales numbers: Geneforge 4 (Mac/PC, released 2006-2007) sold 4,000 copies at $28 to March 2009.

- Cliffski made $189,000 from direct sales in 2008 for all his games (10,000 downloads).

- IGF finalists with some buzz but not masses of advertising (and no affiliate deals) have sold 5,000 copies directly at $20 each.

- Low-end sales: 100-1,000 copies; Mid-end sales: 1,000-5,000 copies; High-end sales; 5,000-50,000 copies.


Market Analysis: PC Single-Player Web Browser Games

- Massive potential here, but LOTS of free Flash games out there.

- For non-multiplayer Flash games, you can make money via these methods:

- ‘Exclusive licensing’ from free web game portals (high hundreds to low thousands per license, sometimes a lot more - FlashGameLicense.com).

- CPM deals from ads attached to games or shown elsewhere on the page. (not gigantic at regular CPM rates, might add up)

- Microtransactions - THE big area of potential growth (Daniel Cook/Bunni, Fantastic Contraption).

- Just possible to make living from juggling licensing deals and ads + other revenue. LOT of competition.


Market Analysis: PC Online Games

- LOTS of opportunity here for online-connected games in pursuing item sales, micro-subscription models, etc.

- Free to play multiplayer online titles in general - don’t be afraid (Puzzle Pirates! Domain Of Heroes.)

- Selling in-game upgrade and items to a different style of indie game community (Toribash).

- Selling access to a still in-development multiplayer game (Cortex Command)

- Charging for the second episode/expansion of an otherwise completely free-to-play online game (ForumWarz)

- Social network games use unique mechanics to spread games among friends lists, (Pet Society, etc).

- Independents can flourish in this space, but tricky to get started (No aggregators to help -- virality is key!)

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:PC Trends:

Major trends to watch out for in the PC space:- Rise of smaller-team PC games - retail /publisher

slowdown, growth of digital (Steam)- Use of pre-orders to fund full game development

(Cortex Command)- Growth of influential, ‘trendy’ indie game-friendly

press (RockPaperShotgun, Offworld).- Acceptance of ‘play’-based games with a less clear

goal (Blueberry Garden, Line Rider)- PC online teams breaking Flash, online

microtransaction cultural taboos (Puzzle Pirates)- IMPORTANT: rapid prototyping allows freeware PC

hits to become full games (Crayon Physics, Audiosurf)

- Understanding of ‘virality’ as game design key leads to Facebook game growth (FarmTown, others.)

‘Rules’ For Indie Game Success:Console/Handheld Trends

Major trends to watch out for in this space:- Innovative small-team titles can beat more

‘calculated’ games on XBLA, PSN, WiiWare.- Risk/reward per system proportional to a) entry

barriers b) natural ‘connectedness’ of console- Median revenue for published titles: XBLA >

PSN > WiiWare > PSP Minis > DSiWare > iPhone > Xbox Live Indie Games

- BUT revenue curve massively different for each.- iPhone is gigantic, messy ‘gold rush’.- Biggest console (XBLA, PSN, WiiWare) mistake:

team overstaffing (3-5 people, not 10-15!)- Bet-hedging across console and PC SKUs ideal.

Questions?

Contact: [email protected]

http://www.slideshare.net/simoniker (for GDC talk slides, 2D Boy/Wolfire presentations.)

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mailto:[email protected]

http://www.slideshare.net/simoniker


