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Juha Schweighofer, D.Sc.
PIANC PTGCC Meeting, Koblenz, October 4th, 2012
Inland waterways and extreme weather – EWENT and ECCONET projects‘ results
Source: Aker Arctic
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Content
• via donau
• EWENT - ECCONET
• Extreme weather effects on inland waterway transport
• Climate change projections
• Adaptation measures
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� Priority Project 18: "Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube"
The Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube waterway as TEN-T axis
North Sea
Black Sea
Rhine
Main
Main-Danube Canal
Danube
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via donau sites & course of Austrian Danube
350 km Danube9 Danube locks9 Company locations270 Employees
Passau
Wachau
Bratislava
east of Vienna
• Founded in 2005 on the legal basis of the Austrian Waterway Act
• 100% ownership by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology
Lock
Head office
Site
Office
78% impounded sections2 free-flowing sections
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EWENT – Example Danube
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ECCONET
• Effects of climate change
on the inland waterway networks
• Funded within FP7 by the European Commission
• Duration: 2010 – 2012
• Website: www.ecconet.eu
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ECCONET - Consortium
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Water regime
Based on Moser, presentation given at Kongress der Zentralkommission
für die Rheinschifffahrt, 2009, Bonn.
Source:
via donau
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Drought – capacity utilisation
• Reduced cargo capacity utilisation
• Duration long (2003, 2011)
Draught [m]
Dea
dw
eig
ht
[t]
Draught [m]
Dea
dw
eig
ht
[t]
Source: DST
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Drought – sailing times
• Increase
• Increased fuel conumption
Source: Modified after DST
Low water Sufficient water
Ship speed [km/h]
De
live
red
po
we
r P
D[k
W]
800 KW
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Drought – specific costs
• Increase
• Small vessels
less sensitiveYear
Water depth GMS specific costs Gustav Königs specific costs
Year
Water depth GMS specific costs Gustav Königs specific costs
Development of the specific transport costs of a large motor cargo vessel (GMS)
and a small motor cargo vessel (Gustav Königs) as a function of the water depth.
Transport of bulk cargo from Rotterdam to Basel. Source: DST.
Large vessel Small vessel
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Drought – accidents
• Grounding
Development of grounding events on the Upper and Middle Rhine within 2002 and 2010. Based on WSD Südwest.
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High water – suspension of navigation
• When HNWL reached
• Depending on area
• Often short lasting phenomenon
Austrian stretch
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High water – river morphology
• Sedimentation • Aschach on the Danube:
• 13.8.2002: 1 800 000 m3
• Total in 2002: 5 000 000 m3
• Aggradation
• Damage of towpaths
• Damage of banks and flood protection installations
• Recent example: August 2002
• Costs e.g.:
Austrian Danube: 3 Mill EUR (2002)
and 2 Mill EUR (2003)
Total transport infrastructure: 110 Mill EUR
Changes in the river cross-section geometry of the Danube
at river kilometre 1887.1 in 2002, being partly caused by the flood
in August.
9.1.2002 4.4.2002 10.10.2002
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Ice (1)
• Prevented operation of locks
• Damage of navigation signs
and installations on banks
• Suspension of navigation
• Impact locally different
Ice occurrence in locks on the Danube preventing
their operation. Source: via donau.
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Ice (2)
Rhine: no suspension due to ice since 1970!
0 0DAYS
DAYS
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Ice (3)
Austrian stretch
Main-Danube Canal
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Other weather phenomena
• Wind, storms:
• Increased requirements on maneuverability and
course stability
• Main cause for accidents due to environmental
reasons
• Reduced visibility
• Reduced speed or interruption of navigation
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Climate change in Europe – hydrology (1)
• Floods (end 21st century)
• Finland, Russia,
South Spain:
• 100-year return levels
of river discharge
(floods): decrease
• Rest of Europe:
• almost no changes
or increase of floods
⇒ Consideration of floods
will gain importance
Source: Peseta
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Climate change in Europe – hydrology (2)
• Rhine
• Low water NM7Q
• Summer:
• almost no change till 2050 for all relevant gauges (KLIWAS, ECCONET)
• Significant decrease by 42% by KNMI06 W+ at Lobith
• Winter:
moderate increase in discharge
• Mean discharges: no clear tendency
• 100-year return levels of discharge:
• No changes till 2100 by Peseta
• No suspension of navigation due to ice on the Upper and Central Rhine since 1970!
Source: ECCONET Del. 1.3, 2012
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Climate change in Europe – hydrology (3)
• Upper Danube (till 2050)
• Annual discharge: slightly decreasing
• Maximum discharge: slightly decreasing
• Minimum discharge: almost no change
• Till 2100 changes become significant
• 100-year return levels (floods, Peseta):
• Upper and Central Danube:
No change (A2) or moderate increase (B2)
• Lower Danube:
No change (A2) or significant increase (B2) Source: ECCONET Deliverable 1.3
Danube at Vienna 2021 - 2050
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Climate change in Europe - glaciers
• Glaciers – influence of melting ice on discharge:
• Currently most significant in August 10 % (Achleiten, Glowa Danube)
• Vienna most significant in August 2% (Pöyry Energy GmbH)
• Vanishing glaciers only little or negligible influence on discharge of Danube
• Ice occurrence decreasing
Tem
per
atu
re[°
C]
Tem
per
atu
re[°
C]
Air and water temperature of the
Danube in Austria increasing
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Climate change in Europe – visibility and wind
• Reduced visibility clearly decreasing for most airports in Europe
• Indication for better visibility conditions in IWT
• Wind gusts till 2050:almost no change in the Rhine-Main-Danube corridor Source: ESSL- European Severe Storms Laboratory
(Pieter Groenemeijer), EWENT Deliverable 2.1
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Effects of climate change on navigation (qualitative)
Source: ECCONET, Deliverable 1.4, 2012
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Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (1)
RLWL+0,5
• Measures with significant effect on nature problematic
• Integrative approach recommended (e.g. Joint Statement)
• First measures to be taken now (improved maintenance)
• High potential for improvement related to waterway management and usage of ICT
• On medium and long term:
• infrastructure measures (e.g. groynes)
• local framework conditions
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Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (2)
RLWL+0,5
• Commitment by the EC related to promotion of IWT /TEN-T projects)
• Internationally agreed standards are to be fulfilled =>
• Inland waterway transport will benefit from infrastructure measures
• Fairway conditions expected to be better than today
• Provision of determined fairway conditions allows the economical usage of the current fleet as well as the proper design of the future fleet as framework conditions are known
• High water occurrence and floods need to be considered more in detail
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Summary
RLWL+0,5
• Extreme weather events problem today
• Uncertainties are still high
• Floods are not projected to decrease for European waterways (except Finnland, Russia and South Spain)
• Low water: No convincing evidence for increase in severity till 2050
• Ice occurrence is decreasing
• Visibilty is impoving
• Wind activity in the Rhine-Main Danube corridor: almost no change
• Rhine-Main-Danube corridor:• No decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to
climate change till 2050
• Research need: Central and Lower Danube
• First adaptation measures: infrastructure
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Is there something positive about climate change?
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Juha Schweighofer, D. Sc., MRINAvia donau – Österreichische Wasserstraßen-Gesellschaft mbH
A-1220 Wien, Donau-City-Straße 1Tel +43 50 4321 1624, Fax +43 50 4321 [email protected], www.via-donau.org