06/24/2014GEORGAKAKOS INFORM HRC-GWRI 1
Integrated Forecast and Reservoir
Management: The INFORM System
Konstantine (Kosta) Georgakakos(*) (on behalf of the INFORM Team)HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER
(*) Also Adjunct Professor with Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD
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PRESENTATION FOCUS
Reservoir Management in Northern California under
climatic variability and change
A system of reservoirs modulates the climatic and weather variability in order to
produce downstream benefits:
- hydroelectric power production
- flood damage mitigation
- water conservation for municipal, industrial and agricultural supply
- ecosystem benefits
- others
Reservoir effectiveness is substantially influenced by
- climatic variability and trends
- demand variability and trends
- changing water markets
Important target of reservoir management is to
- maximize water use efficiency
(individual uses, individual reservoirs, system)
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The Integrated Forecast and Management Project (INFORM)
for Northern California
Georgakakos et al. 2014: J. of Hydrology, in press (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.032)
Georgakakos et al. 2014: J. of Hydrology, accepted (upstream regulation effects)
Georgakakos et al. 2012a-b: J. of Hydrology, 412-413, 34-46 & 47-62.
Georgakakos and Graham 2008: J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 1297-1321.
Graham et al. 2006: Adv. Water Resources, 29, 1665-1677.
Georgakakos et al. 2005: EOS, 86(12), 122-127.
Wang and Georgakakos 2005: Monthly Weather Review, 133, 3-19.
Yao and Georgakakos 2001: J. of Hydrology, 249, 176–196
Carpenter and Georgakakos 2001: J. of Hydrology, 249, 148-175.
Georgakakos et al. 1998: Water Resources Research, 34(4), 799-821.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/project_reports/CEC-500-2006-109.html
http://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/displayOneReport.php?pubNum=CEC-500-2010-051
http://www.hrc-lab.org/projects (follow link to INFORM)
Prototype Demonstration Project since 2002
(Feasibility Studies in mid- and late-90s)
The Present Talk is an Introduction
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Sponsors:
CALFED Bay Delta Authority
California Energy Commission
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(CPO and NWS/OHD)
Members of Oversight and Implementation Committee:
California Department of Water Resources
California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
GIT
HRC
SPONSORS-COLLABORATORS
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123.5 123 122.5 122 121.5 121 120.5
38.5
39
39.5
40
40.5
41
41.5
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Elevation (meters)
Degrees West Longitude
Deg
rees
Nort
h L
atitude
Major Resevoirs in Nothern California
TrinityShasta
Orovil le
Folsom
Trinity River
Pit River
Sacramento River
Feather River
N. Fork Ame rican RiverOroville
Folsom
TrinityShasta
VISION
Improve reservoir
management in Northern
California using climate,
hydrologic, and decision
science
CHALLENGE
INFORM Region
New Bullards Bar
1 TAF = 1.2 mill m^3
Implement an integrated forecast-management system for the Northern California reservoirs using real-time data and operational forecast models
(Aspects of actual system to be represented were selected in collaboration with Agencies)
Perform tests with actual data and with management input
Demonstrate the utility of climate and hydrologic forecasts for water resources management in Northern California for several years
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INFORM GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
ACTUAL VIRTUAL
Real Time Input
MeasurableBenefits
OtherBenefits
OtherBenefits
Risk-basedTradeoffs
ACTUAL VIRTUAL
Real Time Input
SystemCharacteristics
MeasurableBenefits
OtherBenefits
Operation Rules
MeasurableBenefits
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ATM FORECASTS
Adjustments
HYDROLOGIC MODEL
Ensemble Forecast
DECISION MODELRESERVOIR MANAGERS
Release Schedule
ASSESSMENT SYSTEM
Management BenefitsWater Supply, Flood ControlHydropower, Env. Protection, etc.
ATM DATA
NWS-CNRFCFORECASTERS
Forecast component
Management component
San Joaquin River
San Luis
Clair Engle Lake
Trinity Power Plant
Lewiston
Lewiston
JF Carr
Whiskeytown
Shasta
Keswick
ShastaSpring Cr
Keswick
Oroville
Thermalito
Folsom
Natoma
New Melones
Tulloch
Goodwin
Oroville
Folsom
Nimbus
Melones
Tracy Pumping
Banks Pumping
San Joaquin River
Am
eric
an R
iver
Fea
ther
Riv
er
Sacramento River
Trinity River C
lear Creek
Yuba River
Bear River
Delta-Mendota Canal
California Aqueduct
O’Neill Forebay
To Dos Amigos PP
To Mendota Pool
Sacramento San Joaquin River DeltaReservoir/
Lake
Power Plant
Pumping Plant
River Node
Reservoir/Lake
Power Plant
Pumping Plant
Reservoir/Lake
Power Plant
Pumping Plant
River Node
ISV
IFT
IES,IMC,IYB,ITI
DDLT,DBS,DCCWD,DNBA
DDM
DFDM
DDA
DSF
DSB
Black Butte
New Bullards Bar
INFORM SYSTEM COMPONENTS
Integration with operational agency data, forecasts and models
NCEP(GFS&CFS) and CNRFC(NWSRFS&CHPS)
GFS (0 - 16Days/6hourly) CFS (0 - 41 days/6hourly)
WRF-ARW ICRM
HYDROLOGIC
MODEL
HYDROLOGIC
MODEL
DECISION MODEL
3D ATM 3D ATM
T, PREC, PET T, PREC, PET
Qinflow Qinflow
SM
SN
NWS-CNRFCSnow/Soil States
(Daily)
MAP and MAT Adjustments
Forecast Component Models (0 – 41 Days)
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Version 3.2.1 of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamical core
Boundary Conditions – Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (1o)
Initial Conditions – North American Model (NAM) analysis (12km)
30 km
10 km
(Twice daily out to 16 days w/ 6-hourly resolution output)
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WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (WRF) MODEL
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OROVILLENAME MEANOBS MEANSIM STDVOBS STDVSIM CORREL
PLLC1UP 0.88 2.21 2.69 3.94 0.726 PLLC1LW 0.52 1.35 1.55 2.38 0.699 IIFC1UP 0.59 0.98 2.03 2.15 0.427IIFC1LW 0.71 1.24 2.26 2.01 0.705 PLGC1UP 1.26 2.12 3.32 3.92 0.776 PLGC1LW 1.09 2.13 2.65 3.89 0.801 MFTC1UP 0.89 0.67 3.21 1.87 0.514 MFTC1LW 0.50 0.59 1.82 1.56 0.686 MRMC1UP 1.05 2.26 2.45 4.44 0.761 MRMC1LW 1.04 2.49 2.56 4.84 0.700 ORDC1UP 1.58 3.36 3.59 6.62 0.769 ORDC1LW 1.19 2.25 2.81 4.40 0.773SCBC1UP 1.06 1.58 3.42 2.90 0.657SCBC1LW 1.01 1.79 3.37 3.68 0.548WBGC1UP 1.37 3.45 3.08 6.48 0.831WBGC1LW 1.24 3.28 3.05 6.17 0.794
AVERAGES 1.00 1.99 2.74 3.83 0.698
WRF-ARW Median
20 Ensembles
1 Day Lead Time
Twice Daily Starts
2/20 – 3/15/2011
SHORT-TERM REAL TIME FORECAST EVALUATION - WRF
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Pressure
(hPa)
Z U V PWAT
1000 X G G
850 X X X
700 X G G
500 X G G
200 X G G
X
Available
Pressure
(hPa)
Z T Q U V
1000 X D D X X
850 X D D X X
700 X D D X X
500 X D D X X
400 X D D D D
200 X D D X X
Minimum Required
(2.5 degrees grid; 12 hour resolution)
Principal Component Regression
Upper air Observations (Oakland)
Upper air North American Reanalysis Data (Eureka)
(~ 20 years 12 hourly data)
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM – CFS1
NCEP(CFS) and CNRFC(NWSRFS&CHPS)
CFSSurface P&TProbabilistic
Downscaling(Carpenter &
Georgakakos, 2001, J.
Hydrology)
NCEP CFS
Reanalysis 1979-2010
CNRFC
MAP&MAT
Historical DataMAP & MAT
Basin Snow/Soil/Routing
(Model Uncertainty)CNRFC
Soil/Snow
Initial States
FNF Reservoir Inflow
INFORM
WRF
(0 - 7 days)
Forecast Component Models (1 – 9 Months)
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);,( 0 yiu tttu Ω∈≥=Ω ω
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SHASTA 1995 EVENT
1,000 CFS = 28.3 CMS
Observed
Forecast Evaluation Data
DATA SOURCE COVERAGE
OBSERVATIONS (MAP and MAT) 06/15/2009 – 11/04/2012
OBSERVATIONS (INFLOW) 01/01/2010 – 01/08/2013
ICRM-CFS1 11/26/2010 – 10/23/2012
WRF 11/07/2011 – 11/02/2012
ICRM-CFS2 02/21/2012 - 11/12/2012
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Cross-Correlation and Bias (Folsom)
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Spatial Distribution of Bias and
Correlation
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Probabilistic Performance Measures
(Oroville)
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Probabilistic Bias Adjustment
MAP/MAT
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Inflow Forecasts (Adjusted)
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Water DistributionFlow RegulationHydro Plant OperationEmergency Response
Monthly Decisions• Releases/Energy
Target Conditions• State Variables
Planning Tradeoffs
• Water Supply/Allocation• Energy Generation• Carry-over Storage• Env.-Ecosystem Management
Development Tradeoffs
• Urban/Industrial • Agriculture• Power System• Socio-economic & Ecological
Sustainability
Operational Tradeoffs
• Flood Management• Water Distribution• Energy Generation• Env.-Ecosystem Management
Response Functions• Energy• Flood Damage• Spillage
Scenario/Policy Assessment
Monthly / Several Decades
Actual Hydrologic Conditions
Actual Demands
Climate-Hydrologic Forecasts
Demand Forecasts• Water• Food • Energy• Env.-Ecosystem
Climate-Weather-Hydrologic Forecasts
Demand Forecasts• Water Supply• Power Load/Tariffs• Flood Damage• Env.-Ecosystem Targets
Inflow Scenarios
Development/Demand Scenarios• Water/Energy• Water/Benefit Sharing
Daily Decisions• Releases/Energy
Target Conditions• State Variables
Response Functions• Energy• Flood Damage• Env.-Ecosystem
Short Range / Near Real Time Decision Support
Hourly / 1 Day
Mid Range Decision Support
Daily / Several Months
Long Range Decision Support
Monthly / 1-2 Years
Infrastructure Develpmnt.Water Sharing CompactsSustainability Targets
Management Policy
INFORM DSS ELEMENTSMultiple Objectives, Time Scales, & Decision Makers
Managem
ent
Agencie
s/D
ecis
ions
Pla
nnin
g A
gencie
s/D
ecis
ions
Opera
tional Pla
nnin
g a
nd M
anagem
ent
Off
-lin
e
Ass
ess
ments
INFORM TRADE-OFFS
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INFORM TRADE-OFFS
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Forecasted Inflow Mean Comparison
1727
6988
5108
3139
2511
9184
5174
3578
2009
7195
4067
3482
1802
4805
35883334
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Trinity Shasta Oroville Folsom
Infl
ow
(cf
s)
Historical
F2006
F2007
F2008
Mean Inflow Forecast Comparison (9 Months)(2006, 2007, 2008)
2006 (Wet); 2007 (Average); 2008 (Dry)
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FORECAST UTILITY DEMONSTRATION
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Integrated forecast and reservoir management demonstrates significant capability
for mitigating water resources impacts of climate and weather variability and
uncertainty, particularly for extremes (droughts and floods)
CONCLUSION
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First prototype demonstration project to support the operational use of climate
weather and hydrologic forecasts for operational water resources planning and
management in California
Development of a template for multi agency coordination for adaptive water
management under climatic variability and change
(in conjunction with more detailed simulation systems)
Framework for continued improvement of operational forecast and management
tools
ADVANCESINFORM (2002-2014)
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CHALLENGE AND RESPONSE
Challenge:
Institutional issues for using adaptive management in Northern California:
Management processes are legally and institutionally vested in traditional procedures
and are change resistant
- unintended consequence: constraints the use of key scientific advances (hydroclimatic forecasting,
multi-reservoir optimization, uncertainty characterization, and integrated water resources management)
Response:
INFORM approach is designed to support a truly coordinated, interactive,
and adaptive decision process that consistently reconciles long-, mid-, and
short-term operational objectives and decisions
- institutional and legal processes establish the framework, broad objectives, and criteria for shared water
management rather than policy specifics
- with agency coordination, the adaptive risk-based INFORM approach may become institutional practice as
a real time screening and planning tool for identifying beneficial release policies
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Thank You
HRC
K.P. Georgakakos, PI, Hydroclimatology
N.E. Graham, Co-PI, Climate Science & Prediction
T.M. Carpenter, Hydrometeorological Forecasting
M. Murphy, J. Wang, and F.-Y. Cheng, Mesoscale
Meteorological Modeling
E. Shamir, Hydrologic Modeling
C. Spencer and J. Sperfslage, Computer Science
GWRI
A.P. Georgakakos, Co-PI, Decision Science
Huaming Yao, Hydropower
Martin Kistenmacher, Uncertainty Mgt
Dongha Kim, Routing/Temperature Models
INFORM Contributing Scientists/Engineers
http://www.hrc-lab.org