IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena in Seismically Active Areas
D.Ouzounov1,2, S.Pulinets3, M.Kafatos1, P.Taylor2
1 Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA2 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA,3 Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow,
Russia,4
Sensor Web Approach for Earthquake studies (Taiwan) TIR Anomaly associated with Wenchuan
M7.9,May 12th, 2008 earthquakeTIR Anomaly associated with Abruzzo (Italy) 2009.04.06 M6.3 earthquake
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
1. Earthquake precursory phenomena
2. Hot-spot alerts around M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake
China 2008
3. Joint Model –Space – Terrestrial Framework .
4. Summary
Contents
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Source of the Natural Hazardsand Early Warning Systems
DisasterManagementCycle
Planning
Mitigation
Response
Rec
over
y
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Map showing the locations of earthquake early-warning systems currently in operation (blue) or development (green) around the world. Operational systems include Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and Turkey. Systems are in development for California, Egypt, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Romania, and Switzerland. The locations are overlaid on the GSHAP global seismic hazard map (Giardini et al., 1999). (After Allen, 2007)15-50 sec lead time
Map of earthquake early-warning systems
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
List of possible earthquake precursors
• Planetary positions • Ground deformations • Geomagnetic methods • Energy accumulation rate• Earthquake clouds • Gravity anomalies • Ground water level• Radon concentrations• Meteorological conditions• Thermal infrared• Infrasound• Crustal stress• Abnormal behaviour of animals• Geo-electric pulse
• Historical/statistical data• Ground-based EM field • Tilt meters • GPS• TGFR• MS-Double Time Method• Geo-electricity • Micro-vibration• Earth resistivity• Geochemistry • Seismic gap• Foreshocks• Geodesy• Micro-changes• Ionosphere
After Vandergeden(2005)
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN6
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Earthquake precursor science now…
It is a SES natural time!
It is GPS/TEC anomaly!
It is a ULF signal!
It is a Rn anomaly!
It is a Thermal anomaly!
It is a Seismic precursor!
EQ precursor processes
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Methodology of the precursory signals we are investigating as part of the Sensor Web
Geophysical signature Source Data Thermal infrared MODIS, AIRS LST, SST
NOAA/AVHRR 15,16,17 OLRSurface heat flux NCAR-data center SLHFTotal Electron Content GPS Dual frequenciesIonospheric variability DEMETER VLF/ELF, Te, Ne, Ni, Ti,Radon concentrations ground measurements GammaMeteorological information MODIS,GOES, METEOSAT RGB, Cloud data
• TIR- thermal infrared, LST-Land surface temperature, SST- Sea surface temperature, OLR –Ongoing long wave radiation, NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research.
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Hot-spot alerts around M7.9 Wenchuan EarthquakeChina 2008
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Time-series of daily day-time radiation for (left to right) -(1)May 6th,(2)12th, (3) USGS map for (4)16th of May over the West Sichuan province (Ouzounov et al, 2008)
16th May12th May6th May 12th May
•May 6th (-6 days)- an internal EQ Alert#1•May 16th (-2 days) – EQ Alert#2, M6.0 has occurred on May 17th
•May 23rd (-2 days) – EQ Alert#3, M5.8 has occurred on May 25th
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
(Ouzounov et al, 2008)
Hot spot maps of daily TIR earth outgoing radiation over the epicenter of M7.8 Eastern Sichuan earthquake, China May 5- May 16, 2008
05 May 06 May 07 May 08 May 09 May 10 May
11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May
Alert 1
Alert 2
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Map of GPS DTEC (SHAO) around the time of M7.8 Eastern Sichuan earthquake, China May 5- May 16, 2008
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Faults activation – permeability changesGas discharges including radon
emanation
Air ionization by α-particles –product of radon decay
Ions hydration– formationof aerosol size particlesHumidity drop
Latent heat release
Air temperature growth
Air conductivity change
Atmospheric electricfield growth
Electric field effects within the ionosphere
Earthquake clouds formation
Convective ions uplift, charge separation, drift in anomalous EF
OLR anomalies
Schematic presentation of the LAIC model (v.2009)
Air pressure drop
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Pulinets et al, 2008
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Where we are now?Methodology of the precursory signals we are investigating
Thermal infrared NOAA/AVHRR,AQUA/AIRS OLR
EQEQ
22 ä åê àáð ÿ 2004 ã. 1 2:30 GMT
90 100° 11 0°
110°100°90°80° 90°
° 10
° 0
80°
°
10
°
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°
Jet Stream CurrentNOAA
Ionospheric variabilityDMSP,DEMETER-VLF/ELF, Te, Ne, Ni, Ti
Clouds information MODIS,GOES, METEOSAT
Total Electron Content GPS, Dual frequencies
Geophysical signature/ Source/Example
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
How good we are in the reading of Earth processes from Space…
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
How good we are in the reading of Earth processes from Space…
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Joint Model –Space – Terrestrial Framework (JMSTF)
SatelliteSensor
Detection
SatelliteSensor
SatelliteSensor
Modeling
Monitoring
Alerting
SatelliteSensor
GroundSensor
GroundSensor
GroundSensor
GroundSensor
Data MiningLAICMechanism
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How good we are in the reading of Earth processes from Space…
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Case studies of TIR- earthquake analysis(hind casting mode)
200 M>5.0 (TIR,OLR,GPS/TEC, OLR, SLHF,T/H,DEMETER)
Global analysis of OLR variability prior to major earthquakes 2001-2005 Name Date M, H,(km) EQ mechanism OLRAnomaly W/m-2 Detection time,days Toll Bhuj, Gujarat India 01/26/2001 7.9 23.6 Thrust Fault 12 -25 20,000 Southeastern Iran 12/26/2003 6.6 15.0 Strike-slip fault 8 -25 31,000 Kashmir Pakistan 10/15/2005 7.6 10.0 Strike 12 -15 100,000 Andama.Sumatra, 12/26/2004 9.0 28.6 Mega trust 18 -26 284,000
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
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2-D Plot of NOAA/AVHRR OLR (at 300mb) Jan 1- April 30, 2009 1x1 degree over the
epicentral area, (Longitudinal lock on 12.5E)
Time=10*DaysJan 01-April30, 2009
Abruzzo M6.3 Earthquake , Italy, April 6,2009
IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Summary
§Our Satellite analysis detected in advance to the Wenchuan earthquake the following signals: Thermal Anomaly on May 6th (-6 days): Ionospheric TEC anomaly on May 9th(3-days)
§§Using Using the fundamental principles of atmospheric physics the the fundamental principles of atmospheric physics the LAIC model was updated in order to explain the most of the LAIC model was updated in order to explain the most of the atmospheric thermalatmospheric thermal and ionospheric variations and ionospheric variations observed before observed before the earthquakesthe earthquakes
§§Practical Practical applicationsapplications could could be build for automatic be build for automatic identification of the earthquake identification of the earthquake precursors;precursors;
§ Why we need International cooperation within IDRC: The complex and dynamic nature of the earthquake hazard risk on global scale requires spatial, spectral, and temporal coverage that is far beyond any single method and satellite mission.
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IDRC 2009, D.Ouzounov – Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena
Validation of earthquake precursors VESTO 2009March 26-28, Chiba, Japan
Thank you!