International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Transboundary Observation Programme on Water and Hazards to the Third Pole
Environment
Hua Ouyang
Tibetan Plateau as Asian water tower
.Xiangde Xu et al.: World Water Tower, an atmospheric perspective. Geophysical Research Letters ,2008.
The ‘Third Pole’
The Big Melt: Glaciers in the high heart of Asia
feed its greatest rivers, lifelines for two billion people. Now the ice and snow are diminishing.
April 2010
Water: a key resource
River Area sq km
Mean discharge
(m3/s)
% of glacier melt in river
flow
Population x1000
Population density
Water per person m3/year
Indus 1,081,718 5533 44.8 178,483 165 830
Ganges 1,016,124 18691 9.1 407,466 401 ~2500
Brahmaputra 651,335 19824 12.3 118,543 182 ~2500
Irrawaddy 413,710 13565 unknown 33,097 80 18,614
Salween 271,914 1494 8.8 5,982 22 23,796
Mekong 805,604 11048 6.6 57,198 71 8934
Yangtze 1,722,193 34000 18.5 368,549 214 2265
Yellow 944,970 1365 1.3 147,415 156 361
Tarim 1,152,448 40.2 8,067 7 754
Total 1,324,800
Possibly up to 70% in the dry season
Disasters in South Asia (1975-2005)
3.5%
7.2%
14.4%
7.5%
0.1%
35.0%
0.3%
6.6%
0.6% 0.6%
24.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%D
roug
ht
Ear
thqu
ake
Epi
dem
ic
Ext
rem
eTe
mpe
ratu
re
Fam
ine
Floo
d
Inse
ctIn
fest
atio
n
Slid
es
Wav
e /
Sur
ge
Wild
Fire
s
Win
d S
torm
Source: OFDA/Cred Database
South Asian countries are most vulnerable to floods
Social-economic stress
• Population growth• Food security• Human health
Climate change will depress agricultural yields most in HKH region in 2050
Sources: Müller and others 2009; World Bank 2008c. The figure shows the projected percentage change in yields of 11 major crops (wheat, rice, maize, millet, field pea, sugar beet, sweet potato, soybean, groundnut, sunflower, and rapeseed) from 2046 to 2055, compared with 1996–2005. The yield-change values are the mean of three emission scenarios across five global climate models, assuming no CO2 fertilization (a possible boost to plant growth and water-use efficiency from higher ambient CO2 concentrations). The numbers indicate the share of GDP derived from agriculture in each region. (The share for Sub-Saharan Africa is 23 percent if South Africa is excluded.) Large negative yield impacts are projected in many areas that are highly dependent on agriculture.
Gaps and Challenges
• Data availability and data sharing is constrained
• Few observation stations in high altitude
• Operation and Quality of the existing stations
• … …
Himalayas: A blank spot in IPCC AR4
Reducing scientific uncertainty
We need to reduce scientific uncertainty!
Under-representation of meteorological stations in the high Himalayas
Elevation (m)
Area ( 10,000 km2)
No. met stations
Density (No./10,000
km2)
Below 300 17.36 419 24.13
300-1000 175.49 146 0.83
1000-2000 175.12 266 1.52
2000-3000 84.95 53 0.62
3000-4000 72.17 74 1.03
4000-5000 141.73 58 0.41
>5000 72.00 16 0.22
Transboundary Observation Plan
Priorities: Transboundary Cooperation
• River basin approaches (transboundary): – East : Yaluzangbu-Brahmputure– Middle: Koshi river basin--Ganges– West: Indus river basin
• Site monitoring and integrated analysis– Existing sites– News sites: high elevation
Wetlands: Upstream-downstream LinkageAfter Falkenmark, 1999
Relevant Projects
Indus water availability, GTZ, from 2009-2011HYCOS, 2010-2012SRE-Himala, USAID/NASA, from 2010-2013Cryosphere, 2011-2015Kosi water resource and poverty reduction,
CAS, from 2009-20011, ESPA/DFID
Scientific vision
Capacity building for improved monitoring of ice and water resources in the region:• Establish systems for monitoring the status and
changes over time of snow, ice and water resources in the region
• Build capacity of relevant key institutions on monitoring of snow, ice and water resources using remote sensing and field based techniques
• Develop water availability scenarios for river basins• Promote data and information sharing
Thank youThank you