Download - Jake Crouch - National Climatic Data Center · July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar Temperature: 49.4°F, +1.9°F, 14th warmest year to date 5 Contiguous U.S. Jan-Jun Temperatures 1895-2018

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar July 2018

Jake CrouchClimate Scientist, Climate Monitoring Branch,

NOAA National Centers for Environmental

Information

Crystal StilesApplied Climatologist, High Plains Regional

Climate Center

Matthew RosencransMeteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA

Climate Prediction Center

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar 2

• June: +0.75°C above20th century average

– 5th warmest Juneon record

– 402nd consecutive month above the 20th century average

• Land: +1.06°C

– 6th warmest June on record

– Coolest since 2014

– Noteworthy regional warmth

• Ocean: +0.62°C

– 6th warmest Juneon record The global temperature record dates to 1880 (139 years)

Land and Ocean Temperature PercentilesJune 2018


Jan-June 2018: +0.77°C above average, 4th warmest on record.

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Year-to-date Global Temperaturesfor 2018 and the other nine warmest years on record

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Temperature: 71.5°F, +3.0°F, 3rd warmest June on record

Precipitation: 3.08”, +0.15”, near median June

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• Above-average temperatures in the Southwest, Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast

o Record minimum temperatures across central U.S.

• Below-average conditions in the Northwest and Northeast

• Above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies and Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic

o Significant flash flooding in Upper Midwest, Texas Coast, and Mid-Atlantic

• Below-average rain in parts of the West and South

• Large and destructive wildfires burned across the West

Precipitation Percentiles June 2018Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)

Temperature Percentiles June 2018Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)


Temperature: 49.4°F, +1.9°F, 14th warmest year to date

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Contiguous U.S. Jan-Jun Temperatures 1895-2018

• Large swings in temperature month to month during 2018 east of the Rockies

• January-June was warmer than average for the West and along the East Coast

• Below-average conditions in the north-central United States

• 25th consecutive year with Jan-Jun temperature above 20th century average

Temperature Percentiles Jan-Jun 2018Period: 1895-2017 (124 years)

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31.0% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 4.6 percentage points since late May)

• Improvement: Drought improved in the Northern Plains, Southeast, and High Plains

• Degradation: Drought expanded in the West, South, central Great Lakes, and Northeast

• Outside CONUS: Drought developed in Hawaii and Puerto Rico was abnormally dry

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Crop Update• Generally, corn and soybeans are in

good shape

• Cold April delayed planting season

• Warm May & June crops progressed quickly, may reach maturity early

• High minimum temperatures in Nebraska and Kansas may negatively impact corn yields

• Kansas and southeast Colorado winter wheat production negatively impacted by climate conditions

Corn showing signs of high temperature stress

(Photo courtesy Dr. Ignacio Ciampitti, Kansas State University)

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Flooding & Severe WeatherMissouri River Flooding

• High mountain/Plains snowpack and heavy spring precipitation resulted in 3rd highest monthly runoff in June in 120 years of record

• Higher-than-average releases from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on all Mainstemprojects is expected through summer/fall

• Minor flooding along the river

Severe Weather in North Dakota, July 8-10th

• Large hail/high winds damaged corn, soybeans, and alfalfa, overturned center pivots near Oakes on the 8th

• EF2 tornado struck RV park in Watford City on the 10th, killing 1 and injuring 28

Destroyed manufactured homes and RVs, Watford City (courtesy NWS Bismarck)

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Wildfires in ColoradoSpring Creek Fire

• Location: South-central Colorado, Sangre de Cristo Mountains, southeast of Great Sand Dunes National Park

• Size: 108,045 acres (as of 7/16)

• Contained: 91% (as of 7/16)

• Currently 3rd largest wildfire in Colorado history

416 Fire

• Location: Southwest Colorado, San Juan National Forest, north of Durango

• Size: 54,129 acres (as of 7/16)

• Contained: 50% (as of 7/16)

• Currently 6th largest wildfire in Colorado history

Spring Creek Fire(photo courtesy Colorado Climate Center via @brit_a22 on Twitter)

The monsoon may help drought and fire conditions, but it increases the risk of flash flooding and mudslides

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Sea surface temperatures

• Above normal SSTs in most of the equatorial Pacific

• Small area of below normal SSTs remains in the eastern Pacific

• Away from the equator, above normal SSTs across the Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico

• ENSO neutral conditions are present

ENSO forecast

• ENSO neutral is likely to persist through summer 2018

• The chances of El Niño increase to about70% in winter of 2018-19

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Average Temperature Probability

TotalPrecipitation Probability

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Average Temperature Probability

TotalPrecipitation Probability

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For More Information

TODAY’S PRESENTATION:

• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov

Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu/

NOAA Media Contacts:

• [email protected] ,301-683-1327, (NOAA Communications/HQ)

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

http://drought.gov/

http://www.climate.gov/

https://hprcc.unl.edu/

mailto:[email protected]