João Cleto, Sofia Simões, Patrícia Fortes, Júlia Seixas
The role of cost-effective measures in Portugal for The role of cost-effective measures in Portugal for compliance with the EU climate-energy targets compliance with the EU climate-energy targets
Research work funded by the FCT/MCES and POCI 2010, supported by FEDER
Quantifying the Synergies and Antagonisms Between Energy and Environment Policy Instruments in Place – feed-in tariffs, EU ETS and on-budget aids to gas infrastructures;Energy and GHG Emissions – Evaluation of Long Term Scenarios for Portugal;Renewable Energy Sources Availability under Climate Change Scenarios – Impacts on the Portuguese Energy System;Evaluation of the Energy Savings Potential of the Portuguese Households;Competitiveness of Portuguese Industry in Post-Kyoto EUTS: Sector CO2 MAC;Portugal Climate 2020: GHG Emission Scenarios in the Post-Kyoto regimeH2 technologies roadmap for Portugal for 2050
European Projects
Portuguese Project and Policy Support
Energy demand: • based on 2008 macro-economic and demographic scenarios – industry
(validated)• bottom-up approach to compute residential, commercial and transport energy
service demand
Technology database: • validation of the industry, transport, solar thermal and electricity production
technologies by the Portuguese stakeholders
Delivery Costs EU-ETS
• emissions disaggregated and possibility to model acquisition of allowances at different price and allocation scenarios
What is the contribution of “ cost-effective measures” in the residential and commercial sectors for GHG emission targets?
What are the hidden gains if changes in behaviour and technologies follow a perfect knowledge pattern?
The role of cost-effective measures in Portugal for The role of cost-effective measures in Portugal for compliance with the EU climate-energy targets compliance with the EU climate-energy targets
– 5% biofuels beyond 2010– 31% of renewable electricity in 2010
– 10% biofuels beyond 2010– 45% of renewable electricity in 2010
BAU
BAUeff
PQ
PQeff
Baseline
Insulation, renewable heat, fuel shifts
Evolution based on 2000- 2005 trends (e.g. diesel lessons from past)
“zero cost measures”
- Renew. and biofuels
+ Renew. and biofuels
Analyzed:
Non-trend “zero cost”
Not analyzed:
Trend “zero cost”(e.g. Lighting, refrigeration)
Final energy demand in 2020
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity
Biomass
Heath
Other ren.
Biofuels
Total
Variation in final energy demand with zero cost measures (PJ)
PQBAU
-1%
+15 to +20%
<1%+14 to +7%
0 to +2%
-3%
-18 to 14%-14 to -17%
Sector% variation in sector final energy
demand
BAU PQ
Commercial -15 -11
Residential +10 +8
Fuel and Technology change 2005 – 2020 Residential – heating, cooling, water heating
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 BAU BAUeff PK PKeff
PJ
RSD - renewables
RSD - Insulation
RSD - fossils
RSD - Electricity
2020
31%
21%
37%
20%
43%
49%
Biomass heat
Natural gas
Solar thermal
31%
25%
37%
17%
38%
51%
Fuel and Technology change 2005 – 2020Comercial – heating, cooling, water heating
2020
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 BAU BAUeff PK PKeff
PJ
COM - Renewables
COM - Insulation
COM Fossil
COM - Electricity
31%
21%
74%
47%
31%
21%
74%
47% Oil
Heat Pumps
Solar thermal
GHG Emissions in 2020
-2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000
Energy Supply
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential
Agriculture
National total
Variation in GHG Emissions with zero cost measures (Gg CO2e)
PQ
BAU
-2 %
-63 to -71%
-3 to 0%+2%
-3 to -0%
% variation from 2005
GHG emissions
BAU BAUeff PQ PQeff
EU ETS 5 4 7 8
Non EU ETS 1 -2 -5 -9
National Total 3 0 0 -2
EU proposal for Portugal
EU ETS ?
Non-EU ETS +1
Renewables
EU proposal for Portugal
+31%
PJ2020
BAU BAUeff PQ PQeff
Renewable electricity 111 110 143 142
Renewable heating & cooling 83 114 69 96
Residential 24 51 20 42
Commercial 12 19 12 17
Industry 48 44 37 36
Renewables in transport 16 16 27 27
Total renewable (a) 210 240 238 265
Total final energy (b) 849 848 850 849
% Renewables (a/b) 25 28 28 31
Conclusions & remarks Savings of roughly 3 M€ (0.1% of GDP) Possible bias in results
• Biomass statistical info on biomass may be biasing results for residential sector
• Diesel in commercial sector – trend evolution possible?
Policy implications • Current policies for implementation of these measures are not ambitious enough and do not
realize the full low hanging fruits potential
Next steps• fully evaluate cost-effective options on remaining sectors