Talent Dividend MetricsA Progress Report
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Joe Cortright
April 2010
Roadmap
1. The Talent Dividend Calculation
2. Four Key Metrics
3. Years of Post Secondary Education
4. Dynamics: Migration, Retirement
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4. Dynamics: Migration, Retirement
5. Next Steps
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Talent
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The Hypothesis
• Better educated metropolitan areas have higher incomes
• Better skilled workers are more innovative and productive
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and productive
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Raleigh-Cary, NC
Austin-Round Rock, TX Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Denver-Aurora, CO
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-Baltimore-Tow son, MD
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Columbus, OH
Kansas City, MO-KS Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Richmond, VA Rochester, NY
Salt Lake City, UT Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
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Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA Indianapolis-Carmel, IN
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Milw aukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA St. Louis, MO-IL
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytow n, TX Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Pittsburgh, PA Cincinnati-Middletow n, OH-KY-IN
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-New port New s, VA-NC Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Oklahoma City, OK Birmingham-Hoover, AL
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
Jacksonville, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL
San Antonio, TX Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Four Year College
Attainment Rate
The EvidenceEducation Explains Most Differences in Metro IncomeAnnual Per Capita Income, 2005
HAR DEN
BALSAN
MIN
SEA
HOU PHI
NY
y = 763.27x + 16466$44,000
$46,000
$48,000
$50,000
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NO
RAL
ROC
SLC
BIR
BUF
OKC
RIC
LOUMEM
JAC NAS
AUS
MIL
CHA
PRI
VB
IND
COL
LV
SAT
KC
ORL
SACCLECIN POR
PIT
BAL
TPA
STL
SAN
PHO
DET
ATL
MIADAL
CHI
LA
y = 763.27x + 16466
R2 = 0.5846
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006
Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)
Estimating the Gain
• Each 1% improvement in college attainment is associated with a $763 increase in per capita income for the entire metropolitan area
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metropolitan area
• These education gains are the product of a shift in the entire skill distribution, not just moving 1% past the 4 year mark
Make progress at every stage
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Additional Evidence for the Talent Dividend
• President’s Council of Economic Advisors
• Unemployment Rate Differential in the Great Recession
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Educational Gains Stagnating
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For decades, the number of educated American workers grew fasterthan did the demand for them. But beginning with the cohort that completedits schooling in the early 1970s, the growth rate in the supply of educatedAmericans slowed significantly.
Least well educated metros have highest unemployment rates
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“Social Returns” to Education
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Ed Glaeser: Well-educated metro’s had lower unemployment rates than explained by individual educational attainment. Poorly educated metros had unemployment rates 1.8 times higher than explained by individual levels of education.
2. Metrics for improving attainment
• High School Completion
• College Continuation
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• College Continuation
• Adult Post-Secondary Education
• College Completion
Different Sources of Data
– Institutional
• Enrollment records
• Generated by schools
• Aggregated by others (NCES, NCHEMS, NSC)
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– Population
• Survey data
• Gathered by Census Bureau
• Covers entire population; sampling variability
Institutional Measures
• Administrative records from educational institutions
– Diplomas, Enrollment
• Reported to and aggregated by national
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• Reported to and aggregated by national organizations
– NCES, National Student Clearinghouse
• High coverage/ Can drill down; but can be vague and anomalous
High School Completion
• Cumulative Promotion Index
• Product of high school grade level success rates:
– [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th)
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– [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th)
% x (12th to Diploma %)]
• If 90% are promoted each year
– CPI= .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65.1%
• Computed from NCES data
High School Graduation Rates(CPI Method)
WAS
CIN
PDX
DET
SAC
IND
NY
BAL PHI
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BAL PHI
MEM RIC KC
VBN RAL ROC
HOU RIV DEN NAS
ATL OKC LOU MIL
SLC AUS STL SDO
JFL BIR CLE SEA
TSP LA SJO DFW CHI MSP
PHX LV MIA CHA ORL COL SAT SFO BUF
35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85%
Source: Computed from NCES/CCD
College Completion
• Institutions report 6-year graduation rate for four-year institutions
• Data reported by institutions, tabulated by IPEDS
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IPEDS
• We sum by metro area, weighting institutional rates by enrollment for four-year institutions.
College Graduation RatesSDO
COL
LA
SEA
RIC SAC
STL ORL
ATL CLE ROC
JFL BUF AUS
TSP NAS BOS
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TSP NAS BOS
MIA VBN BAL
PDX RIV PHI
OKC CIN HAR
DFW NY RAL
DET NOLA CHA PIT
SLC IND BIR PRO
MEM LOU MIL SFO
LV KC CHI SAT
PHX HOU DEN WAS MSP SJO
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Source: Computed from IPEDS
National Student Clearinghouse
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Population Measures
• Data from American Community Survey
• Two Questions:
– Attendance
– Attainment
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– Attainment
• Asked of 1% Sample Annually
• Use 3-year 2006-2008 pooled sample
MicroData Tabulations
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ACS Attendance Question
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The ACS Attainment Question
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Question
High School Completion (on time)
• What percent of 19 year olds report having received a high school diploma or GED?
• Census question makes no distinction between diploma and GED
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between diploma and GED
College Continuation
• What proportion of 18 to 24 year olds who have completed high school are enrolled in college?
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College Enrollment
SAT
PDX
CHA
HOU
MEM LA SJO
TSP CIN ROC
Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending Post-Secondary Education
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TSP CIN ROC
SEA CLE NAS BUF
SLC SDO WAS PIT
IND BAL MIL PRO
DFW RIC STL HAR
LOU SAC OKC COL
KC BIR MIA AUS
PHX ORL DET PHI
JFL VBN NOLA CHI SFO RAL
LV DEN RIV ATL MSP NY BOS
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Adult Post-Secondary Education
• What proportion of 25-44 year olds, who have completed high school, but do not have a bachelor’s degree, attended college classes?
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college classes?
Adult Enrollment and AgeEnrollment Declines with AgePercent of Persons with Less than a BA Degree Attending College Classes, by Age
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Att
en
din
g C
oll
eg
e C
las
se
s
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R2 = 0.983
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Age
Att
en
din
g C
oll
eg
e C
las
se
s
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Adult Post-Secondary Attendance
RIC
KC LA
PRO TSP
PHX RAL
PIT RIV
25 to 44 Year Olds with No Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes
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PIT RIV
MIL LOU ORL
ROC BOS CHI SEA PDX
NY PHI HOU COL MIA SAT SJO
DFW NAS ATL AUS HAR CLE WAS OKC
NOLA CHA CIN MSP STL JFL BAL SLC VBN
LV BIR BUF DEN IND MEM DET SFO SDO SAC
5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
College Completion
• What percent of 24 year olds report having received a four-year college degree?
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College Completion
CHA
BOS
ROC
IND
OKC
BAL
DEN
ATL
PRO
24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or higher
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PRO
SEA
CLE CHI
SDO CIN MIL
DFW PDX HAR BUF
DET RIC BIR MSP
SAC TSP ORL NAS NY
LV PHX LA STL COL
SAT NOLA MEM SJO PHI
SLC HOU MIA SFO PIT
RIV VBN JFL LOU AUS KC WAS RAL
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Making Use of the Data
• Where am is my region strong and weak?
• Who is doing better that I might learn from?
• Are there special conditions that affect
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• Are there special conditions that affect local performance?
Years of Post-Secondary Education
• Four-year degree attainment rate is too simple to capture the “size” of the Talent Dividend challenge
• How much additional education is needed
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• How much additional education is needed to raise the attanment rate?
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YPSE Weights
Value Years of PSE
High school graduate, or Less 0
Some college, less than 1 year .5
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One or more years of college but no degree 1.2
Associate degree 2
Bachelor's degree 4
Master's degree 5
Professional degree 5
Doctorate degree 7
YPSE v. 4 year attainmentYears of Post-Secondary Education Correlates with BA Attainment
y = 0.2097x - 0.0634
R2 = 0.9763
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
BA
Att
ain
me
nt
Ra
te
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0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
YPSE: Years of Post-Secondary Education
BA
Att
ain
me
nt
Ra
te
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
How much effort?
• Years of Post-Secondary Education
• Portland: About 100,000 person years of additional post-secondary education to raise the four-year college attainment rate
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raise the four-year college attainment rate by 1 percentage point.
Adding Dynamics
• Our talent measures are “snapshots”
• We need to account for movement in and out of the working population
• Movement in time: Retirements
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• Movement in time: Retirements
• Movement in space: Migration
Dynamics
• Migration
– Workers are constantly moving in and out of every metropolitan area
• Retirement
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• Retirement
– Young people are entering the labor force
– Older workers are reaching retirement age
Migration
• About 2.7 million working age persons with four-year degrees move to a different metropolitan area each year
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Talent Migration *
PHI
CHI JFL
MIL BAL LOU SLC
PRO CIN VBN DFW TSP
NY BUF SFO PIT PDX
Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults with a Four-year Degree
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NY BUF SFO PIT PDX
HAR IND WAS ATL PHX
ROC BOS NAS SDO SAT RAL
MEM ORL COL SJO HOU CHA LV
NOLA DET LA MSP KC RIC SAC RIV SEA AUS
-1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5%
* Not adjusted for international out-migration
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Retirement: Boomer Talent Exodus
Number of College Educated Leaving Will More than Double
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Co
lleg
e E
du
cate
d P
ers
on
s T
urn
ing
65
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Year
Co
lleg
e E
du
cate
d P
ers
on
s T
urn
ing
65
Retirement Rate Rising Everywhere
PHINY
CINHOUSJOPDXBIR
PROSEADETDENCHIKC
BOSNASMEMDFW
MILMSPCOLINDRALCHAAUSATL
Last Five Years
Next Five Years
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0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
LVTSPMIA
PHXROCRIV
SACSATJFL
OKCSDOORL
LACLEBUFSFOHARNOLBALLOUSLCSTLVBN
WASPITRICPHI
% BA+ Reaching Retirement
Percent of Working Aged Adults with a Four-Year Degree or Higher Reaching Retirement Age
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
• Career counseling – getting employers involved in supporting college career paths
• Social marketing
• How to account for non-traditional, part-time students
• Value of liberal arts in synergy with vocational
• 2 and 4-year institutions working together; also reconciling data on 2-yr 4-yr grad rates
• Long term pipeline balance with short term results of TD
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• Long term pipeline balance with short term results of TD
• Race and ethnicity; come up with better language
• Tension between TD as initiative and goal; define short-term strategies to help get big-wins; speed as theme with prototyping as strategy
• Compounding value of doing the 1%
• Where are the gaps that business community should take on.
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Typical Improvement
• Can we move Portland (33.3% college attainment to the same level as
• San Diego (34.2%) or Atlanta (34.6%) college attainment?
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college attainment?
• The Portland Talent Dividend
$1.6 Billion Annually
Share of 18 to 24 Year Olds Attending College
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Raleigh-Durham
Percent of 18 to 24 year old residents enrolled in college
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Portland
Las Vegas