GLOBAL MARKET OF OILSEEDS
AND VEGETABLE OILS:
TRENDS & PROSPECTS OF
2019/20 SEASON.
KAZAKH POSITIONS ON THE
GLOBAL MARKET.
19/20 SEPTEMBER 2019, Istanbul/TURKEY
KAZAKH GRAIN EXPORT 2019
AGENDA
1- OILSEEDS MARKETS GLOBALLY
2– VEGOILS MARKETS GLOBALLY
3- KAZAKH ROLE IN GLOBAL OILSEEDS AND VEGOILS
4– 2019/20 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS
5- PRESENTATION SUMMARY
OILSEEDS MARKETS
GLOBALLY
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT WAS RECORD AROUND
585 MLN T.( 17/18, 565 )
HOWEVER, BY 18/19 SEASON,THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF ALL OILSEEDS
WAS LOWER THAN WHEAT AND EVEN THE HALF OF CORN.
- CORN, record 1.12 MLRD T ( 17/18, 1.08 ),
- WHEAT, 730 MLN T ( 17/18, 765 ),
- OILSEEDS, record 585 MLN T ( 17/18, 565 ),
- RICE, 500 MLN T ( 17/18, 495 ).
SOYBEAN WAS
THE LOCOMOTIVE
OF THE OILSEEDS WITH OVER
60% SHARE.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ OUTPUTS;
- SOYBEAN, record 365 MLN T ( 17/18, 341.5 ),
- RAPESEED, 67 MLN T ( 17/18, 70.5 ),
- SUNSEED, record 52.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 49.3 ),
- COTTONSEED, 43.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 44 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
USA, BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA PERFORMED
OVER 80% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN OUTPUT,
CANADA AND EU-28 PERFORMED
OVER 60% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED OUTPUT,
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA PERFORMED
OVER 50% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT,
INDIA AND CHINA PERFORMED
AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED OUTPUT.
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD OILSEEDS CRUSHINGS WERE RECORD AROUND
485 MLN T.( 17/18, 480 )
SOYBEAN WAS ONCE
THE LOCOMOTIVE
OF THE OILSEEDS WITH OVER
60% SHARE.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ CRUSHINGS;
- SOYBEAN, record 305 MLN T ( 17/18, 300 ),
- RAPESEED, 65 MLN T ( 17/18, 66 ),
- SUNSEED, record 47.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 45 ),
- COTTONSEED, 32.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 33 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
USA, BRAZIL, ARGENTINA AND CHINA PERFORMED
OVER 75% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS,
EU-28 AND CANADA PERFORMED
OVER 50% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED CRUSHINGS,
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA PERFORMED
AROUND 55% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED CRUSHINGS,
INDIA AND CHINA PERFORMED
AROUND 55% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED CRUSHINGS.
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD OILSEEDS EXPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND
175 MLN T.( 17/18, 170 )
SOYBEAN WAS ONCE
THE LOCOMOTIVE
OF THE OILSEEDS WITH OVER
85% SHARE.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ EXPORTS;
- SOYBEAN, record 150 MLN T ( 17/18, 148 ),
- RAPESEED, 15 MLN T ( 17/18, 16 ),
- SUNSEED, record 3 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.5 ),
- COTTONSEED, 850 KMT ( 17/18, 900 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
BRAZIL, USA AND ARGENTINA PERFORMED
OVER 85% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN EXPORTS,
CANADA, UKRAINE AND AUSTRALIA PERFORMED
OVER 90% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED EXPORTS,
MOLDOVA, CHINA, EU-28 AND KAZAKHSTAN PERFORMED
AROUND 70% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTS,
USA, IVORY COAST AND AUSTRALIA PERFORMED
AROUND 75% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED EXPORTS.
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD OILSEEDS IMPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND
175 MLN T.( 17/18, 170 )
SOYBEAN WAS ONCE
THE LOCOMOTIVE
OF THE OILSEEDS WITH OVER
85% SHARE.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ IMPORTS;
- SOYBEAN, record 150 MLN T ( 17/18, 148 ),
- RAPESEED, 15 MLN T ( 17/18, 16 ),
- SUNSEED, record 3 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.5 ),
- COTTONSEED, 850 KMT ( 17/18, 900 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
CHINA AND EU-28 PERFORMED
OVER 65% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN IMPORTS,
EU-28, CHINA, JAPAN AND MEXICO PERFORMED
AROUND 80% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED IMPORTS,
TURKEY AND EU-28 PERFORMED
AROUND 70% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED IMPORTS,
SOUTH KOREA, MALI, CHINA AND MEXICO PERFORMED
AROUND 60% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED IMPORTS.
VEGOILS MARKETS
GLOBALLY
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD VEGOILS OUTPUT WAS RECORD AROUND
206.5 MLN T.( 17/18, 202 )
PALMOIL AND SOYOIL WERE
THE LOCOMOTIVES
OF THE VEGOILS WITH
36 & 27 %SHARES RECPECTIVELY.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ OUTPUTS;
- PALMOIL, record 76.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 72 ),
- SOYOIL, record 56.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 56 ),
- RAPEOIL, 25.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 25.75 ),
- SUNOIL, record 20.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 19 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA PERFORMED
AROUND 85% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL OUTPUT,
CHINA, USA, BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA PERFORMED
OVER 75% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL OUTPUT,
EU-28, CANADA, CHINA AND INDIA PERFORMED
AROUND 80% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL OUTPUT,
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA PERFORMED
AROUND 60% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT.
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD VEGOILS CONSUMPTIONS WERE
RECORD AROUND
206.5 MLN T.( 17/18, 200 )
PALMOIL AND SOYOIL WERE
THE LOCOMOTIVES
OF THE VEGOILS WITH
37 & 27 %SHARES RECPECTIVELY.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ CONSUMPTIONS;
- PALMOIL, record 75 MLN T ( 17/18, 72 ),
- SOYOIL, record 56.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 55.5 ),
- RAPEOIL, 25.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 26 ),
- SUNOIL, record 19.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 19 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
INDONESIA, INDIA, EU-28 AND CHINA PERFORMED
AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL CONSUMPTION,
CHINA, USA, BRAZIL AND INDIA PERFORMED
AROUND 70% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL CONSUMPTION,
EU-28, CHINA, INDIA AND USA PERFORMED
AROUND 80% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL CONSUMPTION,
EU-28, INDIA AND RUSSIA PERFORMED
AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL CONSUMPTION.
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD VEGOILS EXPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND
89 MLN T.( 17/18, 83.5 )
PALMOIL WAS
THE LOCOMOTIVE
OF THE VEGOILS WITH AROUND
60% SHARE.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ EXPORTS;
- PALMOIL, record 53 MLN T ( 17/18, 49 ),
- SOYOIL, record 11.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.0 ),
- SUNOIL, record 11.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 10 ).
- RAPEOIL, 5.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 5 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA PERFORMED
AROUND 90% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL EXPORTS,
ARGENTINA PERFORMED
AROUND 45% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL EXPORTS,
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA PERFORMED
OVER 75% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL EXPORTS,
CANADA PERFORMED
OVER 60% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL EXPORTS.
IN 2018/19 SEASON;
WORLD VEGOILS IMPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND
88.5 MLN T.( 17/18, 83.0 )
PALMOIL WAS
THE LOCOMOTIVE
OF THE VEGOILS WITH AROUND
60% SHARE.
IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ IMPORTS;
- PALMOIL, record 53 MLN T ( 17/18, 49 ),
- SOYOIL, record 11.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.0 ),
- SUNOIL, record 11.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 10 ).
- RAPEOIL, 5.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 5 ).
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
INDIA, EU-28 AND CHINA PERFORMED
AROUND 45% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL IMPORTS,
INDIA, BANGLADESH AND CHINA PERFORMED
AROUND 45% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL IMPORTS,
INDIA, EU-28 AND CHINA PERFORMED
AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL IMPORTS,
USA AND CHINA PERFORMED
AROUND 65% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL IMPORTS.
KAZAKH ROLE IN GLOBAL OILSEEDS
AND VEGOILS
IN 2018/19 SEASON, KAZAKHSTAN PERFORMED
• 2.25 Mln T of global oilseeds output ( 17/18, 585, 0.4% share ), but 650 kmtof global Linseed output ( 18/19, 2.6 Mln T, 25% share ).
• 1.19 Mln T of global oilseeds crushings ( 17/18, 485, 0.3% share ), but 500kmt of global Sunseed crushings ( 18/19, 47.5 Mln T, 1% share ).
• 1.07 Mln T of global oilseeds exports ( 17/18, 175, 0.6% share ), but 500 kmtof global Linseed ( 18/19, 1.45 Mln T, 35% share ) and 375 kmt of globalSunseed ( 18/19, 3 Mln T, 12.5% share ) exports.
• 60 kmt of global oilseeds imports ( 18/19, 175, 0.03% share ), but 40 kmt ofglobal Sunseed imports ( 18/19, 3 Mln T, 1.35% share ).
AS IT’S SEEN ;
KAZAKHSTAN HAS ATTRACTIVELY,
• 25% SHARE IN GLOBAL LINSEED OUTPUT,
• 35% SHARE IN GLOBAL LINSEED EXPORTS
• 12.5% SHARE IN GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTS.
IN 2018/19 SEASON,
KAZAKHSTAN PERFORMED
• 420 kmt of global vegoils output ( 17/18, 206.5 Mln T, 0.2% share ), but 210
kmt of global Sunoil output ( 18/19, 20 Mln T, 1.05% share ).
• 400 kmt of global vegoils consumption ( 17/18, 206.5 Mln T, 0.2% share ),
but 250 kmt of global Sunoil consumption ( 18/19, 19.5 Mln T, 1.3% share ).
• 165 kmt of global vegoils exports ( 17/18, 89 Mln T, 0.2% share ), but 70 kmt
of global global Sunoil exports ( 18/19, 11.5 Mln T, 0.60% share ).
• 150 kmt of global vegoils imports ( 18/19, 88.5 Mln T, 0.17% share ), but 110
kmt of global Sunoil imports ( 18/19, 11.5 Mln T, 0.95% share ).
AS IT’S SEEN ;
KAZAKHSTAN HAS
UNFORTUNATELY NO
SIGNIFICANT SHARE IN
GLOBAL VEGOILS OUTPUT,
CONSUMPTION, EXPORTS
AND IMPORTS.
2019/20 SEASON GLOBAL OILSEEDS
PROSPECTS
IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASON
OUR GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 18/19, record 15.50 ),
- RUSSIA, 12.75 MLN T ( 18/19, record 12.85 ),
- EU-28, 9.9 MLN T ( 18/19, 9.65 ),
- ARGENTINA, 3.75 MLN T (18/19, 3.75 ),
- CHINA, 3.0 MLN T ( 18/19, 3.0 ),
- TURKEY, 1.55 MLN T ( 18/19, 1.43 ),
- USA, 1.0 MLN T ( 18/19, 0.95 ),
- TOTAL, record 53.15 MLN T ( 18/19, 52.75 ), 0.35 MLN T
IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASONOUR REGIONAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 18/19, record 15.5 ),
- RUSSIA, 12.75 MLN T ( 18/19, record 12.85 ),
- ROMANIA, record 3.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 2.65 ),
- BULGARIA, 2.1 MLN T ( 18/19, 1.9 ),
- TURKEY, 1.55 MLN T ( 18/19, 1.43 ),
- MOLDOVA, 950 KMT ( 18/19, 950 ),
- KAZAKHSTAN, 850 KMT ( 18/19, 900 ),
- TOTAL, 36.45 MLN T ( 17/18, 36.18 ), 0.27 MLN T
IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASON
OUR GLOBAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- CANADA, 19.75 MLN T ( 18/19, 20.5 ),
- EU-28, 17.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 20.0 ),
- CHINA, 8.0 MLN T ( 18/19, 7.5 ),
- INDIA, 7.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 8.0 ),
- UKRAINE, record 3.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 3.0 ),
- AUSTRALIA, 2.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 2.2 ),
- RUSSIA, record 2.15 MLN T ( 18/19, 2.0 ),
- TOTAL, 64.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 67.15 ), 2.9 MLN T
IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASON
OUR REGIONAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- UKRAINE, record 3.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 3.0 ),
- RUSSIA, record 2.15 MLN T ( 18/19, 2.0 ),
- ROMANIA, 700 KMT ( 18/19, 1.62 ),
- BULGARIA, 400 KMT ( 18/19, 440 ),
- KAZAKHSTAN, 325 KMT ( 18/19, 400 ),
- TURKEY, 225 KMT ( 18/19, 115 ),
- MOLDOVA, 70 KMT ( 18/19, 70 ),
- TOTAL, 7.12 MLN T ( 17/18, 7.29 ), 170 KMT
IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASON
OUR GLOBAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- BRAZIL, record 122.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 118 ),
- USA, 100 MLN T ( 18/19, record 124 ),
- ARGENTINA, 55 MLN T ( 18/19, 57 ),
- CHINA, 16 MLN T ( 18/19, 15.0 ),
- INDIA, 10.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 11.0 ),
- PARAGUAY, 10.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 8.5 ),
- CANADA, 6.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 7.3 ),
- TOTAL, 344 MLN T ( 18/19, record 365 ), 21 MLN T
IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASON
OUR REGIONAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- RUSSIA, record 4.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 4.1 ),
- UKRAINE, 4.0 MLN T ( 18/19, record 4.75 ),
- ROMANIA, 350 KMT ( 18/19, 350 ),
- KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 18/19, 250 ),
- TURKEY, 125 KMT ( 18/19, 100 ),
- MOLDOVA, 50 KMT ( 18/19, 50 ),
- BULGARIA, 20 KMT ( 18/19, 35 ),
- TOTAL, 9.05 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.64 ), 590 KMT
AS IT'S SEEN;
GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE WILL BE
HIGHER, BUT RAPESEED AND ESPECIALLY
SOYBEAN OUTPUTS WILL BE LOWER
IN 2019/2020 SEASON.
AS IT'S ALSO SEEN;
BLACK SEA SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE WILL BE
HIGHER, BUT RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS
WILL BE LOWER
IN 2019/2020 SEASON.
PRESENTATION
SUMMARY
• SOYBEAN IS THE LOCOMOTIVE OF GLOBAL OILSEEDS’ OUTPUT, CRUSHINGS AND
TRADE.
• CHINA IS THE MAIN DESTINATION OF SOYBEAN EXPORTS AS WELL AS PARTLY OTHER
OILSEEDS AND VEGOILS. THEREFORE, KAZAKHSTAN HAS ALSO ADVANTAGEOUS
LOCATION BEING THE NEIGHBOR COUNTRY OF CHINA.
• EU-28 AND CANADA ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN CANOLA COMPLEX.
• KAZAKHSTAN IS AMIDS THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN LINSEED OUTPUT AND EXPORTS AS
WELLAS SUNSEED EXPORTS.
• SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA AND GLOBALLY BY 2019/20 SEASON WILL BE
LOWER. ESPECIALLY US SOY NEW-CROP SIZE WILL SUFFER HUGE LOSSES DUE TO
HISTORICALLY NON-STOP RAINS DURING PLANTINGS, AND SO ABANDONNED
ACREAGES AND LOWER YIELD POTENTIALS.
• SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA AND GLOBALLY BY 2019/20 SEASON WILL BE
AT RECORD LEVELS.
• RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA AND GLOBALLY BY 2019/20 SEASON WILL BE
LOWER.
• WITH LOWER NEW-CROP SIZE IN SOYBEAN ESPECIALLY, THE PRICES OF OILSEEDS &
DERIVATIVES MAY BE PARTLY RELIEVED DURING 2019/20 SEASON. WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND US/CHINESE TRADE WARS ARE SO CRUCIAL.
Great thanks for your kind attention…
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND
BROKERAGE AS PER 21-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
VEYSEL KAYAhttp://www.sunseedman.com
[email protected] : SUNSEEDMAN
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