Lecture Summer School Earth System Governance
The Role of Modelling and Scenarios in Earth System Governance
Marcel Kok29-08-2008
Outline
• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
• Is there a role for modelling and scenarios in ESG?
• Some insights in the use of models and scenarios– Where do you need the scenario for
– Bridging spatial and temporal scales (EURURALIS)
– Handling a plurality of perspectives (Sustainability Outlook for the Netherlands)
• Some conclusions
Netherlands Envionmental Assessment Agency: interface between science and policy
• Ex ante evaluations
• Ex post evaluations
• Integrated assessments on different spatial levels
• Environment, nature and spatial planning
• For The Hague, Brussels, Nairobi
Earth System Governance?
• Combines earth system analysis and governance theory
• Earth system analysis: multidisciplinary enquiry of global environmental change at different spatial and temporal scales, using system-based simulation models (‘integrated assessment models’, but mainly natural science)
• (Development of) Earth System Governance theory: analysis of causes and responses to steer human development
� Both strands need to come together in issue specific research
Three components of ESG
• Problem structure pose particular difficult governance challenges:
– Uncertainty
– Functional interdependency
– Spatial interdependency
– Temporal interdependency
• Governance principles:– Credibility
– Stability
– Adaptiveness
– Inclusiveness
• Research challenges– Architecture
– Agency
– Adaptive state
– Accountability
– Allocation
Why use Models and Scenarios?
• Future is uncertain, but necessary to explore
• To allow consistent analysis of different scientific domains
• Helps to identify inter-linkages, both possible trade offs and synergies
• To identify emerging challenges
• Anticipating on (undesirable) trends and changes
• To evaluate possible response strategies and policies
• Stimulate discussion about future trends to support decision making and to foster social learning
• …
Problems with modelling from a social science perspective
• Complexity of social issues
• Availability of strong theories
• Conceptualisation of core social issues
• Reflexivity and learning
• Data problems
• …
Different types of modelling
• System-dynamic models
• Qualitative models
• Agent-based models
• Optimisation models
This presentation mainly focused on:
- system-dynamic modelling and especially,
- scenarios that combine storytelling and quantification
- to be used on the science-policy interface
Some definitions of scenarios:
• ‘archetypal descriptions of alternative images of the
future created from mental maps or models that reflect
different perspectives on past, present and future
developments’
• ‘Images of the future, or alternative futures that are
neither predictions nor forecast, but an alternative
image of how the future might unfold ’
Speculation
Causal
relations
Uncertainty
Projection /Trend extrapolation
Domains of future trends
Exploration& scenarios
Prediction
Lower Higher
Higher
Scenario-analysis
� 1. Where do you need the scenario for
� 2. Bridging spatial and temporal scales
� 3. Handling a plurality of perspectives
Many approaches in scenario development
• By content: business as usualpositive visiona bit of scare-mongeringcontrasting futures1½ or 100 years horizonpolicies included / not includedsurprises included / not includedincremental development / transitions……………..
• By structure: pure quantification dominant narrative computer-aided storytellingrich / simpleregionally diversifiedglobally consistent / top down……………
1. Where do you need the scenarios for?
• Policy optimization
• Advocacy
• Strategic orientation
None of these involves ‘predictions’!
Policy optimization
• Question: what policy variant is most effective, cost-efficient, fast, acceptable, fair …..
• Scenario type: Baseline/reference with variants of less or additional policies
• Time horizon: 15 years ahead or less (some times more, but very debatable)
• Examples:– OECD Environmental Outlook;
– Agriculture Assessment;
– CAFE – programme on clean air in Europe
Advocacy, vision building
• Question: what are the changes we are going to fight for? (Structural changes, value changes)
• Scenario type: reference case and fully developed alternative scenario. ‘Good’ and ‘bad’.
Or: backcast, exploring how to get to the target
• Time horizon: not limited, can be generations
• Examples: – ‘Bending the Curve’ (GSG)
– some African development scenarios
– World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Strategic orientation
• Question: for what alternative worlds do we need to prepare ourselves? What if our current assumptions were wrong? What would be robust strategies?
• Scenarios: sets of rich, contrasting futures. Mix of storylines and data.
• Time horizon: required for everything beyond 20 years.
• Examples:– Shell planning
– IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
– UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-3 and GEO-4)
Examples Scenario Analysis as part of global environmental assessments
• IPCC – SRES
• UNEP Global Environmental Outlook
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• Agriculture Assessment
• OECD Environmental Outlook
Government, Equity,
Emphasis on
sustainability and
solidarity
Market,
Efficiency,
Emphasis on
material wealth
Complete globalization
Stronger regionalization
IPCC Scenario’s
A1
A2
B1
B2
Most important assumptions and different categories of scenarios
Conventional
markets
Reformed
markets
Global
sustainable
development
Competition
between
regions
Regional
sustainable
development
‘Business as
usual’
Examples in the
assessments
IPCC A1, GEO-
4 Markets first
GEO-4 Policy
first, Policy
cases in the
OECD and
Agriculture
Assessment
IPCC B1, GEO-
4 Sustainability
first
IPCC A2,
GEO-4
Security first
IPCC B2 OECD
Environment
Outlook and
Agriculture
Assessment
Economic
development
Very rapid Rapid Slow to rapid Slow From average
to rapid
Average
(globalisation)
Population
growth
Low Low Low High Average Average
Technological
development
Rapid Rapid From average
to rapid
Slow From slow to
rapid
Average
Primary goals Economic
growth
Different goals Global
sustainability
Security Local
sustainability
Not defined
Environmental
protection
Reactive Both reactive
and proactive
Proactive Reactive Proactive Both reactive
and proactive
Trade Globalisation Globalisation Globalisation Trade barriers Trade barriers Weak
globalisation
Policy and
institutions
Policy creates
open markets
Policy limits
market failures
Strong global
management
Strong
national policy
Local
management,
local actors
Mixed
2. Bridging spatial and temporal scales
• Geographical/Spatial scale
– How to describe the issue/process in such a way to capture most important dynamics?
– Provide a feel for the global-to-local link
• Time scale
– What is the appropriate time horizon and time step to capture relevant trends?
Example related to Rural Europe: EURURALIS
Eururalis
► Investigate possible developments of European rural areas to explore effects on
– ecology,
– economy and
– socio-cultural aspects
► European focus, including global context
► Spatially explicit, years 2010 – 2020 – 2030
► Presented by an interactive CD
► … in order to stimulate the strategic discussion on the
future of Europe’s rural areas
MultiMulti--scale approachscale approach
No single model can address all scales � multi-model approach
GlobalGlobal
EuropeEurope
CountryCountry
LandscapeLandscape
ImpactsImpacts
WTO, GlobalizationWTO, Globalization
DevelopmentDevelopment
CAP, expansion, CAP, expansion,
coherencecoherence
CulturalCultural--historic conditionshistoric conditions
BiogeographyBiogeography
Soils, accessibility, Soils, accessibility,
demographydemography
feedbacks
feedbacks
3. Handling a plurality of perspectives: different views on …
• Framing of problem
• Objectives
• Emerging trends
• Role of government
• Relevant actors
• Directions for policy making
Challenge is to identify robust strategies
MNP Sustainability Outlook –II: The Netherlands in a Sustainable World• Explore the relations between Dutch
policy choices ‘here and now’ and consequences ‘later and elsewhere’
• Identify options for policy making
• Synergies and Trade offs
Three related themes
• Poverty and development• Energy and climate• Land and biodiversity
• (Inter)-national agreed policy goals• Trend-scenario towards 2040• Policy options• Synergies and trade-offs with other
policy goals• Support amongst Dutch population
Analysis
Objectives for development, biodiversity and climate …
• Will most likely not be met and especially not simultaneously
• Additional policies are needed
• Political choices required
Global governance for sustainable development
• Global collaboration required, but elusive
• Lack of targets, monitoring, implementation and
enforcement
• Institutions don’t keep up with change
• Too much focus on short term
• Fragmentation of the global governance system
Poverty and development: MDGs will not be met in SSA
Options analyzed:
• ODA
• Debt relief
• Trade reform
• Technology
Trade reform can be beneficial for socio-economic development
• Trade liberalization can result in higher economic growth
• Economic growth is not necessarily pro-poor growth
• Not all countries benefit equally
• Within countries winners and losers
• Flanking policies necessary as safeguard for the most vulnerable and environment
Other factors also important: good governance, ODA, investment climate, social capital, better institutions
Use of world views helps to analyze and structure the debate
• Represent value judgments on how the world functions
• No worldview is true or not true
• Worldviews co-exists
Governement
Global action
Regional action
Global market,Open markets, fewer
agricultural subsidies,
more direct investments,
improve infrastructure,
knowledge transfer
Market
Caring region
helping the poorest,
encouraging civil society,
taking account of climate and nature,
sheltering refugees in own region
Global solidarity
Flanking policies to correct market,
MDG targets realised,
coordinating development aid,
encouraging good governance,
taking into account climate and
nature
Safe region
creating sales markets,
fighting terrorism,
selective knowledge migration,
sheltering refugees in own
region
A1 B1
A2 B2
Worldviews Trade reforms and Development Cooperation
MNP’s Sustainability Modelling Framework
SD Strategies according to worldviews, example of the global market (A1)
• Remove trade barriers asap
• Globalisation and pricing policies deliver eco-innovation, efficiency and technology transfer
• Development cooperation as investment
• Global carbon tax as the efficient climate measure
• Maintaining biodiversity through procing
• Additonal production- and consumption standards are inefficient
Main risk is in timely availability of new technology
MNP’s Sustainability Modelling Framework
Searching for robust options and strategies
• Solutions supported by one worldview are not necessarily supported by other worldviews
• Can we find options that are supported by all worldviews (for different motives)?
• Can we find additonal/compensation measures for options on which no agreement exists to off-set the risks and make them more acceptable?
• Robust strategies need to be identified in participatory and political process?
• No analysis yet of robust strategies in light of agreed goals ?
MNP’s Sustainability Modelling Framework
Yes, there is a role for scenario’s and modelling in ESG…
• Strengthening social & human perspective in earth system modelling and especially scenario’s
• As a method / approach in governance research (actor-based modelling, game theory, quatitative approaches)
• In issue-specific analyses, combining earth system analysis and earth system governance
• …
… but there are many challenges, having to with:
• Trans-disciplinary research
• Combination of quantitative and qualitative research
• Different stages of development in theory building in social and natural sciences
• …