LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
THE CARIBBEANPART 3: EARTHQUAKES AND
TSUNAMIS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
TECTONIC PLATES
Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s heat flow causes lithospheric interactions, which cause EARTHQUAKES
Natural Phenomena that can Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s Restlessness causes subduction of tectonic plates, which can cause
TSUNAMIS
THE NORTH AM. AND CARIBBEAN PLATES: CHARACTERIZED BY SUBDUCTION
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
The Caribbean: long referred to as the West
Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13
are independent island countries
ISLANDS POSSESSING MINOR VOLCANIC FEATURES
• Aruuba, Barbados, Bahamas, Bonaire, Cayman Islands, Saint Croix, and Antigua
ISLANDS POSSESSING RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES
• Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, ,Dominica, Montserrat, Saba, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint John, Tortola, Grenada, Saint Vincent, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Trinidad and Tobago
ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI RISK AND TSUNAMI RISK
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI RISK AND TSUNAMI RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI HAZARDS
ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND
FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
EARTHQUAKE
TSUNAMI
GROUND
SHAKING
FAULT RUPTURE
FOUNDATION FAILURE
SITE AMPLIFICATION
LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
AFTERSHOCKS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS
UNREINFO
RCED MASO
NRY, BRIC
K OR S
TONE
REINFORCED C
ONCRETE WIT
H UNREIN
FORCED WALLS
INTENSITYINTENSITY
REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS
STEEL FRAME
ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME
VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX
3535
3030
2525
2020
1515
1010
55
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MEA
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AG
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M
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ATIO
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O
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MEN
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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
TSUNAMI HAZARDS
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP, WAVE REGRESSION, COASTAL EROSION
A TSUNAMI WAVE CAN REACH 10 M OR MORE IN HEIGHT
A TSUNAMI WAVE CAN REACH 10 M OR MORE IN HEIGHT
Tsunamis Are Associated with Subduction Zone Earthquakes
• M 7 or larger earthquakes that occur in oceanic subduction zones can cause:
Tsunamis
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES
TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE OR A TSUNAMI INTERACT WITH A
CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE OR A TSUNAMI INTERACT WITH A
CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis,…) intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES—TSUNAMIS IN THE
CARIBBEAN
MAJOR CARIBBEAN EARTHQUAKES--TSUNAMIS
• A major earthquake (some accompanied by tsunamis) occurs on average every 50 years in the Caribbean.
MAJOR CARIBBEAN EARTHQUAKES--TSUNAMIS
• In the past 500 years, a dozen major earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater (some with tsunamis) have occurred in the Caribbean near Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
MAJOR CARIBBEAN EARTHQUAKES--TSUNAMIS
• Before the March 12, 2010 destructive earthquake in Haiti, the most recent major earthquake was the M8.1 quake that occurred in 1946 off the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic, triggering a tsunami that killed about 1,800 people.
THE CARIBBEAN: DYNAMIC LABORATORIES FOR LEARNING
• EACH CARIBBEAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI TEACHES IMPORTANT TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL LESSONS ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE.
HAITI EARTHQIAKE
THE HAITI EARTHQUAKE: MARCH 12, 2010
NO TSUNAMI: THE M7.0 EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ON A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT
THE DEADLIEST DISASTER OF 2010: MARCH 12, 2010
• M7.0 Haiti Earthquake that killed 230,000, largely because of the inadequacy of the building code, left survivors stuck in tent cities battling a hurricane (Tomas), cholera outbreak, and health-care problems for the rest of the year.
DEATH TOLL REACHED AN ESTIMATED 230,OOO+
PUERTO RICO EARTHQUAKE (AKA SAN FERMIN QUAKE)
AND TSUNAMI
PUERTO RICAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
• At 10 am on October 11, 1918, the island of Puerto Rico was struck by a magnitude 7.5 earthquake, centered in the Mona Passage. approximately 15 kilometers off Puerto Rico’s northwestern coast
PUERTO RICAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
• The earthquake killed 80 and caused widespread destruction rated at $4 million across Puerto Rico.
• The tsunami produced wave run-up as high as 6-12 m (20-35 feet) along the western coast of the island, killing at least 40.
THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE--TSUNAMI
DISASTER ISEARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE--TSUNAMI
DISASTER ISEARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
DISASTER RESILIENCE
CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN NATION’S NATION’S
COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN NATION’S NATION’S
COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• WINDSTORM HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
EQ-TS RISK EQ-TS RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
EQ-TS DISASTER EQ-TS DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES-TSUNAMIS
PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES-TSUNAMIS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION AND/OR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES-TSUNAMIS
TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE INEVITABLE
EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE INEVITABLE
• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE—TSUNAMI DIS-ASTER RESILIENT.
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMINMG
WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENT
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMINMG
WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENT
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
• DATABASES • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE
• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)
• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)
• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND
SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP
• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND
SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP
• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM
• FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
• FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION