1. Welcome (Monday 7.1.2012: 10.00)– Translation
2. Inception report (10.30)– Purpose and general discussion– Scenarios – Balmorel model– Stream model– Next step
3. Theme discussions: Estonia perspective (14.30-16.30)– Oil Shale (Energy carriers group)– 110% rule (Security of supply group)
4. Summary from day 15. Input from expert groups (Tuesday 8.1.2013: 9.00)
– Consumption– Energy carriers (not covered above)– District heating
6. Next steps7. Bilateral meeting with Elering + WEC about inception report
Increasing amount of details
• Tender– 5 pages
• Project description– 12 pages
• Inception report (draft) + data report (draft)– 28 + 67 pages
• Final inception report + data report + input from expert groups
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale Liberal market
CO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
Single track scenarios
110%
Estonian EE
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale Liberal market
CO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
Single track scenarios
110%
Estonian EE
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale Liberal market
CO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
Single track scenarios
110%
Estonian EE
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale
Liberal market CO2 concern
Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapseEnvironmetal concern
Intenationalorientation
Scenarios• General comment to the scenario set-up• Details about each of the six scenarios (1 reference and
five single-track scenarios)• Agreement on how to describe Russia (CO2 target, import
tax) and the dynamic in the electricity trade with Russia• The expected developed in nuclear generation.• Decision about the inclusion of CCS as an technology
option.• Define the alternative to 110%
– 90%– Capacity value for wind…– 100% for all regions?
Data
• Description of current system (Estonia + Model area)• Development 2010-2020• Technology catalogue • Definition of input 2020-2050 (= definition of scenarios)• Rules, e.g. 110% Estonian capacity
Model
• Optimal solution for each scenario• Time step (2020, 2022,…), Time steps per year (12*6=72 steps per year) • Model based investments from 2020
Results
• Electricity and district heating generation per area per technology• Investments• Electricity prices, fuel costs• Emissions
Time steps: 1, 2 and 5 years
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Predefined capital Model driven investments in generation and transmission
Output
• Raw model results are extremely detailed• Important to maintain overview!– Study aggregated results– Drill down to detailed results• Operation of single unit
Results
• Difference between two scenarios, e.g.: – Marked price for oil shale – Reference– Liberalised market – Marked price for oil shale
• Investments in generation and transmission– Per country: Which technology
• Operation (GWh, emissions, electricity prices)– Per country
Difference: Impact of stepEstonia Other Baltic Nordic German and
PolandNW Russia and Belarus
2030
2050
• Technical– MW installed generation (total)– MW transmission– GWh generated (total)– CO2 emissions
• Economical– Capital costs– Fuel and operational cost– Average electricity price
Difference: Economic overview20302050
Estonia Other Baltic
Nordic German and Poland
NW Russia
Total
Consumer surplusGenerator profitTSO profit
Total xxx
Balmorel
• A broad discussion with the goal to make all stakeholders aware the type of model, the way the model is planned to be used and type of results. This includes the idea of endogenous investments in generation and transmission capacity from 2020 to 2050.
• Updated information about Estonia• Suggested data for the entire model area (outside
Estonia and Russia). • Discussion of how to model Russia.
Stream• Heat demand in household and service sector
– Development of building stock– New buildings (energy standards – are these complied with?)– Demolishment of existing buildings– Rates for renovation of existing buildings (cost and potentials)– Change in composition of building stock (e.g. multistory buildings => single-family house)– Demographic factors (e.g. rural => urban)
• Heat supply in household and service sector– Economic comparison of costs of energy of heat supply using different collective and individual
heating technologies– For different types of buildings: multistory, single-family, new dwellings– To determine scenarios for the expansion or contraction of district heating supply– To determine supply of energy in areas not supplied by district heating
• Electricity demand in household and service sector– Choice of methodology– Historic trends, coupling with GDP, experience from other countries– Bottom-up, vintage modeling: require information about stock of electrical equipment, projections
for their dissemination and development in specific demand
• Energy demand with industry– Sector specific projections– Historic trends per sector coupled with GDP– Input from expert groups on expected future developments for most important
branches• Transport sector
– Growth rates in the demand for transport (personkilometers)– Coupling to GDP (historic trends),experience from other countries concerning
saturation in transport demand– Development in efficiency of conventional combustion engine technologies– Introduction rate for new technologies such as electric vehicles, Compressed natural
gas– Modal-change (car => bus/train/…)– Blending rates for biofuels– Diesel produced from oil-shale
• Model investments from 2018• Allow investments in CHP in heat-only district heating • Nuclear
– Fixed development + Allow investments in nuclear after 2030 • Finland, Poland, Baltic states
• Include CCS– Gradually from 2025– Potential per country. No sites in Estonia
• Storage– Allow investments in
• Heat storage (CHP)• Pumped hydro storage• Other technology (PHES)?
• Russia and Belarus– 3 x 500 MW capacity + 700 MW to Kaliningrad– Carbon leakage…
• Border tax reflecting CO2 price
• Oil shale– Electricity generation from oil shale 100% sold on
market from 1.1.2013– Delete Oil shale at market price?
• Alternative to 110%– 0%
Reference
Liberal marketCO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
110%
Scenarios
Reference
Liberal market
CO2 concern
Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Environmental concern
Internationalorientation
Next stepsPhase Date TasksInitial scenario set-up
16 Jan. 2013 Final delivery from expert groups of input data and assumptions for reference scenario and “single track” scenarios.
30 Jan. 2013 Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering.
Scenario calculations
15 Feb. 2013 Reference scenario note with preliminary results from modelling the reference scenario.
22 Feb. 2013 Skype meeting with expert groups regarding interpretation of the reference scenario
15 Mar. 2013 Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering. 01 Apr. 2013 Interim report with results for reference scenario and single track scenarios.
08 Apr. 2013
Meeting with expert groups:• Discussion of results;• Revision of “single track” scenarios;• Agreement on relevant "combination scenario”.
23 Apr. 2013 Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering.
Conclusions
07 May 2013 Draft final report
14 May 2013
Meeting with expert groups:• Discussion of main conclusions;• Identification of recommendations for important actions in the short-term in
order to achieve long-term goals and identification of important barriers.
31 May 2013 Final report and transfer of data and models.