LONG TERM VISION VERSUS SHORT TERM GAIN
2012 National APA Conference
Monday, April 16
Presenters:
Robin McCaffrey, AICP, AIA - MESA
Jose de Jesus Legaspi - The Legaspi Company
Carissa Cox, AICP - MOSAIC Planning and Development Services
PART ONE: VISION AS VALUE AND GAIN AS TRANSACTION
Robin H. McCaffrey, AICP, AIA
Principal, MESA
Long Term Vision versus Short Term Gain
Two components: 1. Long Term Vision: what we want to have happen 2. Short Term Gain: what happens How and why are they different
All paradises, all utopias are designed
by who is not there, by the people who
are not allowed in. TONI MORRISON, Online News Hour interview, Mar. 9, 1998
The Attributes of Vision
• Vision looks into the future
• Vision seeks a state of completion
• Vision transforms the present
Vision in History
• Equality
• Morality
• Technology
• Order
• Divinity
These are the movements associated with Vision
y
Equality
• Indian Pueblos
• Shakers
• New Harmony
• Oneida
• Utopian Experiments of
the 19th century
Individuality is given over to a collective
Morality
• Picturesque Suburbs
• Garden City Movement
• City Beautiful Movement
Moral Civic Virtue
Technology • Futurists, Sant’Elia
• Fascists, Mussolini’s Rome Universal Exposition
• Hugh Ferris
Scientific Achievement determines Social order and Form
Order
• Beaux Arts
• New Urbanism
• Transit Oriented Development
Powerful Public Domain
Divinity • New Jerusalem
• Jannah
• Plat of Zion
State of bliss
The Common Elements of Vision
• Symmetry
• Axiality
• Towering height
• Clear form
• Hierarchy
• Classicism
• Repetitive components
• Monumentality
• Organic union
• Beauty
An appropriation of the concept
of CENTER
Our Notion of Vision and Short Term Gain are Fundamentally Different
Vision is principally about aggregation • Vision is built on systems of aggregation
– Ports – Islands – Rail heads and other points of convergence – Within defined limits that separate the sublime from the profane
Short Term Gain is about dispersion • Built on systems of dispersion
– Freeways – Arterials – Suburban land – A unitized component of a ubiquitous landscape
Vision is a High State of Potential Energy
• Centralized Control
• Mature state of value
• Fulfillment
• Completion
Short Term Gain
• Equality is replaced by Uniformity
• Morality is replaced by Superficiality
• Technology is replaced by Functionality
• Order is replaced by Repetition
• Divinity is replaced by Secularity
• Endurance is replaced by Disposability
Short Term Gain relies upon speculation
The Forms of Long Term Vision and Short Term Gain
Long Term Vision Short Term Gain
Views the land and what is built on it: • In aggregate terms • Moving toward cooperative experience • Subordination of individuality to Life Style experience
Views the land and what is built on it: • Marginal/ Autonomous Terms • Moving toward commoditization • Subordination of experience to individual consumption
The Forms of Long Term Vision and Short Term Gain
Long Term Vision Short Term Gain
• Center • Village • Park • Town Center • Galleria • Mall • Etc.
• Strip • Sprawl • Pad Site • Box • Grid • Big Box • Etc.
Therefore, Vision is built on Proximity
• Place: Value derived from
location relative to more
distant centers of activity
• Adjacency: Value derived
from connection to corridors
or other features that benefit
market potential.
• Purpose: Value derived from
significance as a center, focus
or other confluence or power
spatial appropriation of
resources.
Proximity: Place
• Rural • Exurban • Suburban • Urban • Core
Proximity Defined
Proximity: Adjacency
• Access • Exposure • Association
Proximity Defined
Proximity: Purpose
• Harbor • River • Rail Head • Freeway Crossroads • Intermodal • Airport
Proximity Defined
Economic Meaning of Urbanism
The Space between Now and Then
• The Foreground to the future cannot lay fallow
• There is a sequential reality that the vision
often overlooks
• The vision is a trajectory not simply a
hoped for outcome
The Sequential Reality
The Development Imbrication
The Space between Vision and Short Term Gain
• Vision speaks in image terms
• Short term gain speaks in transactional terms
• Transactional terms = prioritization of opportunities
• Capture opportunity or portion of opportunity
• Value and risk relative to capture
• Tolerable risk, capacity and return
• Vision (as we practice it) = not risk /capacity, only fulfillment
This says that our vision is of the wrong thing and that implementing that vision through land use and/ or zoning creates conflict not progress
V = Value is Created
C = Value is Captured
T = Value is Transferred
These three activities are constantly interacting, changing and forming the City
Value, Capture and Transfer (VCT), Important Transactional Concepts for
Vision
Value = Perceived Value of Location
The Transactional Aspect of Vision
Transactional Consideration must be in both Vision and Short Term: A Place for all participants
VCT has both a Spatial and Temporal Component
• What is built today constrains or enhances what can be built tomorrow
• Not to recognize this means that the VISION can only be realized if what exists is gone
• This is not Vision, its Negationism
Tools of Negationism:
• Gentrification
• Condemnation
• Other appropriation
Value added Capture: Town Center Project
Absolute Capture: A typical Big Box
Value Loss Capture: Car Dealership/ Fast Food along freeway
Capture is the built response to value, has physical characteristics that express how value is engaged (Transferred)
Definition of Capture
National APA – New Orleans April 12, 2010
Positive Transfer of Value = Vision Present and Future
Our Popular Notion of Vision has left us Impotent to Deal with the
Sequential Reality • Only the top two components are regulated by conventional zoning and/ or land
use
• We must begin to influence the less physical components
Here is how it Lays Out
• Land Development 10 million ac. • Vertical Development 3 million ac. • New Urbanism Projects 70,000 ac. • Total developed land 108.1 million ac.
Land Use and Zoning are Primarily Enforced Through Building Permits
Therefore • Only applies to the Immediate
• Mired in rights, regulating short term return when the forces that define costs have been active without regulation
• Regulating return is always a weak position in a capitalist culture.
• Regulating the cost at that point of decision is also a weak position
• Regulate what makes value so that values emerge to support envisioned outcome.
Vision Vision
City Form
The Vision
The Transaction Ignorant of Vision
If we • Stand at the threshold of the vision moment, the fulfillment of that vision is a
transactional decision
• Put in place the transactional determinants that make fulfillment of the vision possible, it will never be.
• The roots of the vision start at the base of the imbrication and property must move through the sequence and toward the outcomes we desire.
• Transactional determinants – Place
– Adjacency
– Purpose
We do not have a language for the future (vision) that informs the
decisions of the present
There is always a vision…intentional or unintentional because we (as people) are
archetypal…The question is which vision do we serve or notion of a proper world or the
conditions that allow a better world to emerge.
PART TWO: SHORT TERM VISION ASSURES LONG TERM GAIN
José de Jesús Legaspi
Founder and President, The Legaspi Company
A pictorial approach to a vision:
Case Study of La Gran Plaza de Fort Worth and other Hispanic-oriented Shopping Malls.
The Legaspi Company
A welcomed sign…
Elements:
Mercado
Kiosko
Family Lounge Sh
o
p
p
i
n
g
Works Everywhere…
Key
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Am. Indian
Multi-ethnic
THE BROWNING OF AMERICA COINCIDES WITH THE SUNBELT AND COASTAL REGIONS
HISPANICS: AT A GLANCE
TOTAL POPULATION
HISPANIC POPULATION
% OF TOTAL
HISPANIC PURCHASING
POWER IN BILLIONS
% CHANGE IN PURCHASING
POWER’10-’15
US 313,095,256 53,183,325 17% $1,000+ 43.09%
California 37,718,293 14,524,969 38.5% $253 36.89%
Texas 25,897,508 9,986,050 38.6% $175 40.45%
Florida 19,156,005 4,489,763 23.4% $101 47.68%
New York 19,472,874 3,517,174 18.1% $76 33.93%
Illinois 12,901,261 2,116,530 16.4% $43 35.78%
THE HISPANIC CONSUMER
• Brand loyal
• Shopping is a family affair
• Tight-knit unit that stays connected - top consumers
of telecom products
• Young & growing
• Shopping is a daily activity
• Householder spends the most on food at home,
apparel and services than
any other group
• Total Population: 53,183,325
• Median Age: 27.69
• Avg. HH Size: 3.62
• Avg. HH Income: $52,831
Demographics
the statistical data of a population, especially those
showing average age, income, education, etc.
Psychographics
The study and classification of people according to their attitudes, aspirations, and other psychological criteria
“The three main building blocks of culture and patterns of behavior, emotion and knowledge. None of them are created afresh with each new generation. Instead, these patterns have
histories, very lengthy in the case of Latinos.”
What Ties It All Together
1. Language 2. Religion 3. Family (extended)
Working with architects and consultants:
• Consider the market and local history
• Identify current design motifs in the center that can be integrated
• Consider what should change in order to reflect the center’s embracing
of local Hispanic shoppers
• MORE IMPORTANTLY: Who is our community and how do we get
accepted as part of the extended family.
How do we make it happen…
PART THREE: STAYING ON COURSE IMPLEMENTING VISION AND EVALUATING GAIN
Carissa Cox, AICP
Principal Planner, MOSAIC Planning and Development Services
Implementing Vision and Evaluating Gain
The very act of planning for tomorrow assumes a desire to IMPROVE community conditions. So …
How do you implement vision?
How will you evaluate gain?
Implementing Vision and Evaluating Gain
Vision: An image of the future based on community values, priorities, characteristics and preferences
Gain: Improved value…improved quality of life
Evaluating Gain
HOW PROPERTY OWNERS EVALUATE GAIN:
Land Value Value of Vertical Improvements
Evaluating Gain
HOW BUSINESSES EVALUATE GAIN:
INCREASE IN NET INCOME
How does a city evaluate gain???
When Implementation Requires Interpretation…
Why could these planning objectives be problematic?
1. “Improve quality of natural environment: trees and other vegetation, soil, water”
2. “Increase confidence in the future of the study area, particularly with regard to investment in real estate”
3. “Ensure that utilities and maintenance services do not detract from neighborhoods.”
4. “Maximize the investment of private developers while minimizing the cost to the public sector.”
5. “Encourage an appropriate level of density to create a series of neighborhoods.”
When Implementation Requires Interpretation…
Why could these planning objectives be problematic?
6. “Pursue funding to create detailed development plans for the Model Sustainable Community sites depicted in the Vision Plan. Funding options could include grants from the … Council of Governments or other organizations/foundations.”
7. “To clarify the City’s expectations of especially sustainable development patterns … and to provide property owners and developers with certainty that the Model Sustainable Communities will be implemented, prepare and adopt a Zoning Ordinance amendment creating a Model Sustainable Community Overlay District or form-based code and apply it by Zoning Map amendment to the locations identified in the Vision Plan.”
Revisiting the Concept of Benchmarks
Benchmarks are “a standard or point of reference against which things may be compared or assessed.”
As a standard, they should be: • Measurable
• Objective
As a point of reference, they should: • Establish a baseline
• Define a target
With respect to Planning, benchmarks are: • Metrics by which the impact of our plans on overall quality of life can be assessed
• Collectively balanced with regard to community concerns and priorities
• Set for quantifiable community attributes
Pitfalls in Creation of Benchmarks
Pitfall #1: Skewed metrics: An over-emphasis on one area of community concern at the expense of other areas of community concern.
Pitfalls in Creation of Benchmarks
Pitfall #2: Subjective metrics: Reliance on interpretation or opinion for assessing plan success.
Example:
“Improve appearance and aesthetic appeal of housing stock and neighborhoods.”
Establishing Benchmarks: Categorical Definition
Economic Development
Employment
Social Services and Community
Health
Natural Resource Management
Quality of Life
Metrics and Indicators
Economic Development
• Property values
• Sales volumes
• Sales tax revenues
Employment
• New businesses
• Jobs created
• Median household income
Social Services and Community
Health
• Crime stats
• Health stats
• Educational stats
Natural Resource
Management
• Rangeland productivity
• Tree cover
• Water quality
• Water consumption
Use Benchmarks…
1. As you develop your plan…
Use Benchmarks…
2. As you map out your implementation strategy
Use Benchmarks
3. As you evaluate your plan
Example: The Brownsville Downtown Revitalization Plan
Objective: Restore downtown as Brownsville’s value reference point, increasing downtown spending by attracting more downtown visits, downtown stays and downtown residents.
Brownsville Downtown Revitalization Plan Benchmarks
The Revitalization Plan had to bring Planning and Economic Development interests together to improve overall quality of life. Benchmarks included:
• Land Value
• Sales Volumes
• Specialized Sales
• Visitorship/Tourism
• Households
• Median Home Values
• Median Household Income
• Employment
SUMMARY:
• Develop plans that acknowledge community preferences WHILE accommodating market preferences.
• Define benchmarks for monitoring quality of life that are quantifiable and balanced.
• Use these benchmarks as you develop your plan, as you map out your implementation strategy and as you evaluate the impact of your plan on overall quality of life.