1
NEWOPERA
MARKET EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTS DIMENSION
by Franco Castagnetti
FINAL CONFERENCE
BRUSSELS SEPT 30TH 2008
F&L
PARTICIPATION FROM ALL PARTNERS &
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EUROPE RAILFREIGHT NETWORK CONCEPT … and then to Russia and China
3
TONS increase faster than values for de-localization CHINA + ASIA enormous Growth in Trade Imbalance
EU ENLARGEMENT + NMS Growth Fast increase of NMS Imports – Enlargement impact on all EU members +EAST Expansion
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
EU PORTS NEW
CRITICAL GATEWAYS
BREAKS IN TRENDS SINCE YEAR 2000
EU RAIL NETWORK NEW CRITICAL BOTTLENECK
4
(1) Delocalisation (2)(3) Transport INCREASE to/from same Family of Industries (4) Transport INCREASE to/from Industries and Logistics Centres (5) Transport INCREASE to/from Logistics Centres & Distribution (6) New Transport Demand
Basic
Products
Intermed.
Products
Distribution
Manufacture
Parts
Final
Products
Semi-final
Products
Delocalisation Specialisation Modular
Production
Post-
Manufactor. Consolidation
(2) (1) (3) (4) (5)
(6) RECYCLING
F&L
Freight mobility increases 2/3 Times GNP
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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The Value Extraction
Supply Chain Evolution-Sophistication
Seamless Chain - Pipeline Effect
SCM
VMI CPFR
F&L
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
COST – COMPETITION – GLOBALISATION - LIBERALISATION
VIRTUAL NETWORK - OUTSOURCING - ADVANCED TECH
DRIVEN BY
COLLABORATIVE
APPROACH
TRANSPORT
MANAGEMENT
EXTERNAL
INTEGRATION
SCE
INTELL APPLIC.
VIRTUAL NETW.
FUTURE TRENDS
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
Logistic&Budget
ratio
Supply chain
extension
Procurement
policies
OSS
Process
automation
Customer
satisfaction
Inventory
warehouse
management
Planning
processes
Event
management
Transport
management
SHIPPERS LSP Small/Medium Size Industries
Traditional Rail not Considered Reliable Supply Chain Partner
F&L
NEW ACTORS LOGISTICS OPER CONSOLIDATORS
INTEGRATORS FORWARDING
AGENTS GLOBAL PLAYERS
SPECIALISTS MULTI CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION
PROBLEM SOLVED
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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REVERSE LOGISTICS
FREIGHT WINDOWS & DEDICATED RAIL
FREIGHT LINES
SEAPORTS DECONGESTION
ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION
TRAVELLING INVENTORIES DELIVERIES
INLAND PORTS AND LOGISTICS PLATFORM
TRANSPORT INDUSTRIALISATION
INTROPERABILITY
PHISICAL AND VIRTUAL NETWORK
COMPANIES
GREEN LOGISTICS
The Rising Of Green Logistics
F&L
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
8 F&L
DIFFERENCES
INCUMBENTS VS.
NEWCOMERS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
THE NEW COMPETITION
INFLUENCING
9
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
The Competition
F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
New Entrants Market Share
EU 25 8%
Hundreds of Licences released in every European Country. Many are operational others waiting Safety Certificates
Source McKinsey
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F&L
DIFFERENT STRATEGIES IN PLAY
COMPETE: NEW ENTRANTS
MAKE: MANY INCUMBENTS
BUY: DB STRATEGY
COOPERATE: SEGMENT ACTORS
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
CONSOLIDATE: ALL
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New Needs
New Roles/Interfaces New Costs for Energy New Environment Prot.
F&L
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIL
New Trade Patterns. New Volumes New Competition
New Service Culture
New Actors New Business Models New Levels of Integration New Bargaining Powers
New Technologies New Interoperability New Operations New Manag. Systems
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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F&L
30,0
Billion � 2005 Estimation With Mergers And Acquisitions
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
DHL+Exel Schenker + Bax
Kuehne+Nagel
TNT
Panalpina DSV+Maas
Geodis
Geopost+Colipost Gefco
Dachser Wincanton
ABX Logistics
Hellmann
SDV Royal Mail
THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes
15 EUROPEAN GLOBAL OPERATORS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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F&L
NEW SEGMENT
OVERLAND INTERMODALITY
CONVENTIONAL FULL TRAINS
MARITIME INTERMODALITY
SINGLE/GROUPS OF WAGONS
PRODUCTS
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
NEW SEGMENT
NEW SEGMENT
NEW SEGMENT
NEW SEGMENT
THE CHALLENGE
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F&L
Product position
Product position
Product position
BEFOREBEFORE
DURINGDURING
AFTERAFTER
Transp
ort Cy
cle
Critical phases of the transport cycle
Product position
Product position
Product position
BEFOREBEFORE
DURINGDURING
AFTERAFTER
Transp
ort Cy
cle
Critical phases of the transport cycle
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification
Critical Phases of Transport Cycle
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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ECONOMIES OF SCALE
WEIGHT
LOADABILITY
BASIC WAGONS
VOLUME VEICOLE
VOLUME WAGON
REVERSE LOGISTICS
WASTE MGMT
VERTICAL STORAGE
AUTOMATED
WAREHOUSING
IT INTEGRATION
ECONOMIES
OF SCALE
HANDLING SPECIALISATION
VEHICLE
SPECIALISATION
CLEANING
LAST MILE
CONSUMER RESPONSE
REVERSE LOG.
IT INTEGRATION
VMI
VERTICAL/AUTO.
STORAGE
PICKING
PRODUCT INTEGRITY
TEMPERATURE CONTROLLED
SPECIAL
VEHICLES
SPECIAL STORAGE
LOW HIGH
HIGH
Complexities
Valu
e a
dd
ed
F&L
EXTENDED VALUE PROPOSITION
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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SEGMENTS SYMBOL Rail
Market Share
Size of
Market
Growing
Potential
Customers
Group
Raw Materials
High Very
Large
Linked to
Growth
Heavy
Industry
Durable Goods
Medium Very Large
High Large Shippers and
LSP
Fast Consumer Very Small
Very Large
Very High LSP
Furniture,Toys,
Household
Very
Small
Large Very High LSP
Process
Industries
Medium Very
Large
High Large
Shippers and LSP
General Cargo
Negligible Very Large
Very High LSP, Optimisers,
Consolidators
Specialties, Dangerous
Medium Medium Medium Large Shippers and
Specialised LSP
F&L
COMBINING COMMON DENOMINATORS OF 16
INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION MULTI PRODUCTS APPROACH
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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INTERMODAL
ROAD
SEA
RAIL
MODE
109 18 19 17 14 18 15 8
71 9 7 10 12 7 12 14
124 18 17 17 17 18 18 19
97 10 10 12 16 16 15 18
TOTAL GENERACARGO
SPECIAL FORNIT. HOUSE HOLD
PROCES
INDUST
CONSUM GOODS FAST
DURABL RAW
MATER.
ABILITY TO
SATISFY
CONSIGNMENT SIZE
CONSIGNMENT RENTABILITY
SEGMENT ACCESSIBILIY
SCALE 1 TO 5
EUROPEAN MACRO SEGMENTATION - TARGETING -
F&L
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION THE MULTI PRODUCTS APPROACH
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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F&L
INTERMODALIT
Y
CONVENTIONAL TRAFFIC
MARITIME
SINGLE/GROUPS OF WAGONS
CORE
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE CORE ACTIVITIES-MULTI CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION
OVERLAND
FULL TRAINS
DURABLE
AUTOMOTIVE
PROCESS IND.
CONSUMER
FURNITURE SPECIALTIES
Raw Materials
General Cargo
GREEN LOGISTICS +
E/FREIGHT +
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THE NEW PRODUCTS
F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification
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NEW MARKETING PRODUCTS MIX
F&L
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
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LONG TERM CONTRACTS
BONUS/MALUS-SERVICE
OPEN BOOK RELATION.
THE CUSTOMERS WANT
CUSTOMERS CONTRACTUAL APPROACH TO BE CHANGED
MULTIPRODUCTS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION
MULTI CHANNELS
NEW ACTORS
SERVICE QUALITY
CHOICES
COMPETITION
TO
F&L
NEW RAIL ECONOMY
WHICH OPERATORS ?
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F&L
INT. INTERMODAL TRAFFIC DOUBLED IN 10 YEARS CONCENTRATED IN FEW COUNTRIES
UIRR UNACCOMPANIED TRANSPORT C ONSIGNEMENTS
YEAR INTERNATIONAL % DELTA
2007 1.668.000 10%
2006 1.512.000 18%
2005 1.280.000 15%
2004 1.114.000 14%
2003 979.000
926.000 2%
2001 904.000 0%
904.000 13%
1999 801.000 1%
1998 808.000 -2%
7%
1997 821.000 14%
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Rail Intermodality Development
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
2000
2002
6%
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Sturovo
Kiskunhalas
Halkali
Ljubljana
Saloniki
Villach
Beograd
Sopron,
Csorna
F&L
A SOLUTION FOR SINGLE WAGONS
FROM 300 TO 1500 TRAINS/YEAR
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Single Wagons - Group of Wagons
24 F&L
A REVISTED HUB AND SPOKE MODERN APPROACH
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
Marshalling Yard
Corridor Hub
Corridor Hub
Traffic Basin 1
Traffic Basin 2
Traffic Basin 3
Traffic Basin 4
Traffic Basin 5
EVERYWHERE TO EVERYWHERE INDUSTRIALIZE TRAFFIC BASINS
MIXED INTERMODAL/CONVENTIONAL
WHEN NECESSARY FOR ECONOMY OF SCALE
+
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Single Wagons - Group of Wagons
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NO CHANGE IN OVERLAND
TRANSPORTATION
Total TEU Average TEU
2008 1.674.227 8.372
2005 1.308.581 6.543
2000 986.608 4.933
1995 733.155 3.666
1990 600.958 3.005
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008 F&L
SOURCE: Port of Hamburg
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION The Maritime Growth
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CONTAINER SHIP
YARD
DUTY CYCLE
PORTS BOTTLENECKS IDENTIFICATION
CRANE
TERMINAL
ROAD AND
RAILWAY
INTERFACE
STORAGE
SHIP
CONNECTIONS
SEA INTERFACE
F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION The Maritime Growth
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2006
264.000
TRAINS
2010
350.000
TRAINS 2015
600.000
TRAINS
2020 1.000.000
TRAINS
2006
6%
2020
16%
Market Share
F&L
RAILFREIGHT CHALLENGE FOR INCREASING MARKET SHARE
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT
2006
1.000.000
TRAINS
2020
4.000.000
TRAINS AB
OU
T
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F&L
Franco Castagnetti, Tel/Fax: +39 02 89423765 Email: [email protected] WebSite: www.newopera.org
THANK YOU!
MARKET EVOLUTION & PRODUCTS DIMENSION
29
NEWOPERA
BRUSSELS -SEP.30th- 2008
Final Conference
THE OPERATING AND TECHNICAL DIMENSION
by Pierre Dersin
30
o ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES
o DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEMS TO INCREASE
CAPACITY & EFFICIENCY WITHIN THE 4 NEW
OPERA SCENARIOS
o CAPACITY: TRACK CAPACITY DEFINITION
TRAINS CAPACITY
o EFFICIENCY: QUALITY/PERFORMANCE
INDICES AND PUNCTUALITY
NEW OPERATING & TECHNICAL SYSTEMS / ASPECTS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
OBJECTIVES
31
HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES
INCREASING TRAINS CAPACITY AND PRODUCTIVITY
WAYS OF INCREASING TRAINS CAPACITY HAVE BEEN RESEARCHED
SCENARIO 2
LONGER TRAINS HEAVIER LOAD ON EXISTING LINES
SCENARIO 3 DOUBLE STACK ON SOME NEW LINES
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
32
o TECHNOLOGY IMPACT ON ROLLING STOCK
WAGONS BRAKING CHARACTERISTICS:
BRAKING FIRST & LAST WAGON SIMULTANEOUSLY
NEEDS IMPROVEMENT TO THE ELECTRICAL BRAKING
CONTROL
WAGON BRAKING SYSTEMS TO BE STANDARDISED
LOCOMOTIVES COUPLINGS NECESSARY
o ON INFRASTRUCTURE: LONGER PARKING YARDS
o ON ENERGY REQUIREMENTS: MORE POWERFUL
ELECTRICAL SUBSTATIONS OR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES
o ON SIGNALLING: LONGER BLOCKS OR ADVANCED
INTERLOCKING ALGORITHMS
ACHIEVING LONGER TRAINS/HIGHER LOADS
HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
33
HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES
FINAL ASSESSMENT OF OPERATING AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND TRADE-OFFS
Energy, environment and technical: • Electric vs Diesel locos
Pollution: • Noise • Dust • Emissions • Vibrations
• Used liquids
MAINTENANCE CONSTRAINTS IDENTIFIED
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRADE OFFS EVALUATION
34
HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES
LT LT MT
SIMPLE
INTRODUCTION
ST SPEC
EXISTS ST
(but: RAMS)
NOW TECH.AVAILABILITY
VERY HIGH IF NOT DESIGNED IN
HIGH LOW LOW COSTS
AUTOMAT.
COUPLING
ECP Distributed
Power
EOT TECH
ROAD MAP
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
35
INSUFFICIENT CROSS-BORDER CO-
ORDINATION FOR SLOT RE-ASSIGNMENT
TRAIN NUMBERING TRACKING/TRACING
HANDLING NOT HARMONISED
LACK OF SUPPORTING TOOLS TO MANAGE
TRAFFIC
LACK OF KNOWLEDGE OF TRAINS PRIORITIES
SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES
INFORMATION PROBLEMS FOR RAIL FREIGHT PUNCTUALITY
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
36
No European Rail company is able to calculate
expected train’s time of arrival in real time
Trains delayed +10 minutes loose their slot.
National IMs find solutions up to their border.
Border IMs unprepared to find a short term slots.
A train pre-announcing system for international freight does not exist in Europe.
SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES
INFORMATION PROBLEMS (CONT’D)
In emergency, most control centres have
no intelligent tools for deciding trains
priorities.
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
37
PROBLEM
SOLUTION
BENEFIT
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
DESCRIPTION OF REAL-TIME TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT POLICIES
HELP THE DISPATCHER RESCHEDULE THE TIMETABLE AFTER A DISRUPTION
A VERY COMPLEX PROBLEM WITH A LOT OF DATA
DECISION SUPPORT TOOL PRODUCING A NEW TIMETABLE WITH MINIMUM DELAY
IMPROVE TRAIN PUNCTUALITY
38
BOTH OPTIMISATION AND RULE-BASED METHODS SHOW ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES:
PERSPECTIVE: COMBINING BOTH METHODS
METHOD ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
OPTIMISAT. OPTIMISE AN OBJECTIVE NO TIME
OPTIMISATION
RULE-BASED OPTIMISE TIME NO OBJECTIVE OPTIMISATION
SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS FOR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
39
OPERATING RULES
IMs to adopt the regular time-headway scheduling system for increasing corridors capacity.
PRIORITY RULES
Freight trains and more so the international ones should not be discriminated against passenger trains.
Priority rules must be the same throughout pan-European freight corridors.
NEW OPERATING RULES
KEY FINDINGS
An independent European body must be set-up on RNE experience. Its role is managing freight train-paths to ensure consistency and transparency.
IMPLEMENTATION RECOMMENDATION
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
40
CONTRACTUAL RULES Performance management contracts to be established between IMs and RUs.
These contracts to be based on KPIs. Example:
Penalties must be applied in case of non-performance.
Penalties to be borne by the non-performing parties. Hence the necessity to have a corridors management neutral body.
IMPLEMENTATION RECOMMENDATION This new operating regime to be experienced on one show-case corridor before wider EU implementation.
KPI = % Number of trains arriving on-time (+/- pre-agreed interval)
Total number of trains
NEW OPERATING RULES
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
RNE MUST MANAGE TRAINS PATHS ON OSS ENSURING CORRIDORS COMPETITION & TRANSPARENCY
41
CORRIDORS’ OWNERSHIP
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
OPERATIONAL RULES
ARE NECESSARY
Define Responsibilities in Rail Freight Traffic
Management TO
RNE IS POSITIVE BUT No Empowerment to Take Decisions
To Evolve Into a Neutral Body Which Can Take Decisions for Maximising
Corridors Efficiency and Productivity
RNE: RAIL NET EUROPE
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
42
Capacity Assessment and Simulation of the NEW Opera Scenarios in a Showcase Corridor and a Showcase Junction.
Implementation of Characteristics Typical for the Scenarios:
Priority Rules
Train Control Systems, Esp. Etcs
Adaptation of Infrastructure and Rolling Stock.
Deduction of Recommendations About Effective Combination of Measures for Future NEW Opera Freight Corridors.
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
SHOWCASE CORRIDOR
43
SHOW CASE CORRIDOR BÉNING- MANNHEIM VIA HOMBURG
•ABOUT 120 KM LENGTH
•TRAFFIC MIX
•LONG-DISTANCE PASSENGER
SERVICES
•REGIONAL & INTERURBAN
PASSENGER SERVICES
•INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT
SERVICES
•NATIONAL FREIGHT SERVICES
•BIFURCATION AT BÉNING
THE CHALLENGE
MIXING/DEMIXING FREIGHT
AND PASSENGER TRAFFIC Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
44
METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS
Default values Freight trains rank below EC Longer freight trains ETCS Level 3 3.3
Default values Status quo Longer freight trains ETCS Level 3 3.2
Default values Freight trains rank below EC Status quo ETCS Level 3 3.1
Default values Status quo Status quo ETCS Level 3 3.0
Default values Harmonisation of speed Status quo ETCS Level 2 2.4
Default values Freight trains rank below EC Longer freight trains ETCS Level 2 2.3
Default values Status quo Longer freight trains ETCS Level 2 2.2
Default values Freight trains rank below EC Status quo ETCS Level 2 2.1
Default values Status quo Status quo ETCS Level 2 2.0
Default values Status quo Status quo ETCS Level 1 2.0.a
Freight trains suffer from less delays
Freight trains rank below EC Status quo Status quo 1.1b
Default values Freight trains rank below EC Status quo Status quo 1.1a
Default values Status quo Status quo Status quo 0.0
Delays at entry Priorities/Dispatching Rolling stock Train control system Scenario
Priority ranking:
• EuroCity • Regional • S-Bahn • Freight • Local
trains
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
45
PRIORITIES IMPACT ON DELAYS (RWTH SIMULATION)
Giving a Slightly Higher Priority to Freight Trains, Overall Delay (Passenger + Freight) Can Be Considerably Reduced
Trade-off Is a Small Increase in Passenger Trains Delay
OPERATIONAL QUALITY DEPENDS ON INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT AND FREIGHT TRAIN’S DELAYS AT ENTRY
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
46
RESULTS EXPLANATION
GIVING FREIGHT TRAFFIC A HIGHER PRIORITY
REDUCES FREIGHT DELAYS
INCREASES DELAYS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC
DECREASE OF FREIGHT DELAYS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN INCREASE OF PASSENGER DELAYS. TOTAL DELAY IS REDUCED
INCREASING FREIGHT DELAYS LEADS TO SMALLER INPUT DELAYS IN THE NEXT SECTION (NETWORK EFFECT)
RUNNING FREIGHT WITH HIGHER PUNCTUALITY LEADS TO CAPACITY INCREASE
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
47
#TRAINS
TOTAL DELAY
PRACTICAL CAPACITY
SERVICE LEVEL
THEORETICAL CAPACITY
CONGESTED INFRASTRUCTURE
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
RESULTS EXPLANATION
48
REDUCED INPUT DELAY DECREASES TOTAL DELAY.
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
PRACTICAL CAPACITY
THEORETICAL CAPACITY
TOTAL DELAY
#TRAINS
SERVICE LEVEL
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
RESULTS EXPLANATION
49
REDUCED INPUT DELAY DECREASES TOTAL DELAY.
PRACTICAL CAPACITY IS INCREASED!
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
RESULTS EXPLANATION
TOTAL DELAY
PRACTICAL CAPACITY
THEORETICAL CAPACITY
SERVICE LEVEL
#TRAINS
50
EQUALISING PRIORITIES LEADS TO LOWER TOTAL DELAYS.
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
RESULTS EXPLANATION
TOTAL DELAY
SERVICE LEVEL
#TRAINS
THEORETICAL CAPACITY
PRACTICAL CAPACITY
51
CONCLUSIONS OF SIMULATIONS
GIVING FREIGHT HIGHER PRIORITY ON MIXED TRAFFIC LINES INCREASES TOTAL PUNCTUALITY.
INCREASING PUNCTUALITY MEANS INCREASING CAPACITY.
FURTHER MEASURES NECESSARY IN ORDER TO INCREASE FREIGHT PUNCTUALITY (PERFORMANCE REGIMES, PENALTY SYSTEMS)
ULTIMATELY ONLY TOTAL RAIL FREIGHT-DEDICATED CORRIDORS SOLVE THE PROBLEM (SCENARIO 3)
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES
52
ETCS LEVELS 1-2-3
INTEROPERABILITY
by GSM-R system
Train integrity position or GPS- Experimental
By track-side equipment
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
53
INTEROPERABILITY
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
ETCS 1- CAPACITY INCREASE 1%
ETCS 2- CAPACITY INCREASE 16%
ETCS 3- CAPACITY INCREASE 50%
LEVELS 2 AND 3 HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON CAPACITY
LEVELS 2 AND 3 DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
WAITING TIMES IMPROVING SERVICE
RESULTS IN SHOWCASE CORRIDOR WITH JUNCTION
54
Pierre Dersin Tel: +33 1 46 29 15 95 Email: [email protected]
THANK YOU!
THE OPERATING AND
TECHNICAL DIMENSION
55
NEWOPERA
BRUSSELS -SEP.30th- 2008
Final Conference
THE NETWORK DIMENSION
By Christian Reynaud
56
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE NETWORK DIMENSION
SERVICES ANALYSIS GENERATION TRAIN
TRAFFIC
FREIGHT ROUTES IDENTIFICATION
DIRECT& INTERMODAL WAGON
TRAIN LOAD
ASSIGNMENT
MODELLING
SCENARIO
SIMULATION
SCENARIOS
DEFINITION
SCENARIOS
EVALUATION
INTERACTION MODELLING / EVALUATION OF N.O SCENARIO
ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT
57
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
NEWOPERA NETWORK IDENTIFICATION 1
DEMAND DRIVEN
SERVICE DRIVEN
INTERMODAL NETWORK INCLUDING LINKS, NODES, POINTS OF INTERCHANGES (PORTS, TERMINALS…)
OPERATION NETWORK DIFFERENTIATING- DIRECT TRAINS WAGON LOAD-INTERMODAL TRAINS (COMBINED TRANSPORT - MARITIME CONTAINERS)
MULTILEVEL NETWORK-REGIONAL-NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL FOR “DOOR TO DOOR” SUPPLY CHAINS - INCLUDING LAST MILE
EVOLUTIONAL NETWORK INCLUDING MAJOR ERTMS CORRIDORS-EXTENDED TO NEW MEMBER STATES-OPEN TO EURASIAN LINKS AND NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES
NEWOPERA NETWORK OBJECTIVES
58
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
DEMAND DRIVEN, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF O/D FLOWS
INTRA EU NATIONAL-INTRA EU INTERNATIONAL-EXTRA EU
FOR 16 TYPES OF PRODUCTS AND THREE MAJOR CATEGORIES
BULK- GENERAL CARGO-UNITISED.
SERVICE DRIVEN, INTRODUCTION OF INTERMODAL SERVICES BETWEEN TERMINALS + PORT CONTAINERS SERVICES
INTERMODAL NETWORK INCLUDING RAIL, ROAD AND IWW NETWORKS, WITH, FERRY, FEEDER ROUTES AND INTERCONNECTIONS
OPERATION NETWORK LOCATIONS OF HUBS-GATEWAYS INTERMODAL TRANSPORT SCHEMES BETWEEN TERMINALS AND MARSHALLING YARDS FOR RAIL FREIGHT ROUTES
IDENTIFICATION FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRAINS.
NEWOPERA NETWORK IDENTIFICATION 2
59
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
SELECTION CRITERIA FOR
NEWOPERA NETWORK
TRAFFIC DENSITY ON SECTIONS OBTAINED FROM UIC INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGERS
MAJOR TERMINALS IDENTIFICATION AND INFORMATION ON SERVICE FREQUENCIES BETWEEN THEM-INFORMATION FROM RAIL OPERATORS AND OTHER SOURCES
FREIGHT ROUTES PERFORMANCES SPEED OF TRAINS OBSERVATIONS (RFF)-FREIGHT TRAINS TIME TABLES(GERMANY)
SLOTS AVAILABLE ON RAIL NET EUROPE CORRIDORS WITH DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL TIME-RNE OFFER COMPARISON WITH PERFORMANCES INFORMATION ON ROUTES
EXPERT ADVICE FOR TRANSPORT SCHEME -INTERMODAL, PORT, WAGON LOAD BETWEEN MARSHALLING YARDS-
MODELLING ASSIGNMENT OF FREIGHT TRAINS ON EU NETWORK ACCORDING TO TIME PERFORMANCES. COMPARISON WITH TRAFFIC DENSITY
USE OF FORMER EU RESEARCH PROJECTS -EUFRANET, IQ, TENSTAC, SPIN AND A SET OF INDICATORS, EXPERT ADVICE, INSERTED IN A GLOBAL GIS FRAMEWORK.
60
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
NEWOPERA CONNECTION EURO-ASIA LINKS
61
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
EU RAIL NETWORK 220,000 KM (EUROSTAT) NEWOPERA MAIN NETWORK 140,000 KM NEWOPERA “FREIGHT NETWORK” 39,000 KM (35,000
WITHOUT EASTERN EXTENSION) 15% OF TOTAL NETWORK, 25% OF MAIN RAIL
NETWORK LENGTH EU RAIL NETWORK 392 BILLIONS TKM IN 2004 NEWOPERA MAIN NETWORK 298 BILLIONS TKM NEWOPERA “FREIGHT NETWORK” 183 BILLIONS TKM 61% OF INTERREGIONAL RAIL TRAFFIC CONTAINER TRAFFIC (EXTRA EU) BY RAIL 33 BILLIONS
TKM IN 2004 NEWOPERA“FREIGHT NETWORK”23 BILLION TKM
72 % OF CONTAINER RAIL TRAFFIC
RAIL TRAFFIC ON NEWOPERA NETWORK
62
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
MODELLING TOOL FOR NETWORK ASSIGNMENT
NESTEAR USED LOGIS MODEL WITH 2 STEPS GENERATION/DISTRIBUTION ASSIGNMENT OF MODAL
CONTRIBUTION GENERATION / DISTRIBUTION (LOGIN)
INTRA-EU: REGION TO REGION “GRAVITY MODEL” IN 16 GROUPS OF PRODUCTS
EXTRA-EU: TREND ANALYSIS FROM “REGIONS” OF THE
WORLD TO NUTZ II REGIONS OF EU
POINT TO POINT DISTRIBUTION OF REGIONAL TRAFFIC USING GIS LOCALISATION OF POPULATIONS / ACTIVITIES (CORINNE LAND COVER…)
63
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
ASIA26
NA40
SA9
MED19 :MEDITERRANEAN & MEAST
19 COUNTRIES
April 2008@NESTEAR
SPECIFIC MODEL FOR SEA CONTAINERS -PORT PRINT -
PORT TRAFFIC
TONS IN CTS COMEXT EUROSTAT
REGIONAL
TRAFFIC TONS
GENERATION
GRAVITY MODELS
ASSIGNMENT ON
INTERMODAL
NETWORK
CONTAINERISATION
RATE PER ZONES
EXTRA-EU ZONES:
:ASIA EXCEPT MIDDLE EAST
26 COUNTRIES
:N. AMERICA & CARABBEAN
40 COUNTRIES
:SOUTH AMERICA
9 COUNTRIES
64
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIO
DG TREN: GDP AND SECTORIAL PRODUCTION PER COUNTRY
DESEGREGATION AT REGIONAL LEVEL ACCORDING TO REGIONAL PAST TREND (REGIONAL DYNAMICS)
ANALYSIS OF EXTRA EU TRENDS: MEDIUM VALUE BETWEEN “ARITHMETIC” AND “GEOMETRIC” TREND ANALYSIS.
REFERENCE TRANSPORT SCENARIO
INCREASE OF ROAD COST BY 20%
NO CHANGE IN RAIL COST
INTRODUCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN THE GRAPH
SCENARIO DEFINITION
65
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
ROAD COST: INCREASE 20% FROM 1€ TO 1.2 € KM INTERREGIONAL TRANSPORT AS REFERENCE
1/3 INCREASE OF PRODUCTIVITY FOR OPERATING COSTS: BETTER USE OF R/STOCK, INCREASE STAFF PRODUCTIVITY, HIGHER AVERAGE TRAINS LOADING
INCREASE OF RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE CHARGES FROM 1.5€ TO 4 € PER TRAIN / KM TO PAY FOR USE OF INFRASTRUCTURE
15% INCREASE OF RAIL PRODUCTIVITY FROM 17.8 € TO 15.1 € PER TRAIN KM INCREASE NUMBER OF INTERMODAL SERVICES
SPAIN, FRANCE, EASTERN EUROPE BETWEEN MAJOR TERMINALS
NEWOPERA SCENARIO
66
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
A)TRAFFIC GENERATION PROJECTION(REGIONAL) AVERAGE GROWTH OF 2.2% PER YEAR (NON BULK 2004-2020) HIGHER INCREASE OF INTERN.TRAFFIC 4.4% COMPARED TO NATIONAL 1.8%. A 5.7 % GROWTH PER YEAR FOR EXTRA EU TRADE. SIMULATION OF NEW OPERA SCENARIO IN 2020 (COMPARED TO REFERENCE SCENARIO)
• RAIL MODAL SHARE INCREASES FROM 20%to29% IN INTERREGIONAL TRAFFIC COMPARED TO ROAD
• RAIL MODAL SHARE INCREASES FROM 28%to47% IN INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC ROAD + RAIL
• NEW OPERA NETWORK CAPTURES MOST OF ROAD MODAL SHIFT (90 %)
• NEW OPERA NETWORK CONCENTRATES 44% OF INTERNAT. TRAFFIC WITHIN EU (ROAD AND RAIL)
RESULTS
67
+78% NEWOPERA NETWORK FOR REFERENCE SCENARIO 2020/2004
+207% NEWOPERA NETWORK FOR NEWOPERA SCENARIO 2020/2004 0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
Reference 2004 Reference 2020 New Opera 2020
To
ns.km
(in
m
illio
ns)
Tk New opera
Tk rail outside New Opera
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
GAINS WITH NEWOPERA SCENARIO IN 2020
TK in
billionsRef.
2004
Ref.
2020
N.O
2020
Tk global
rail298 504 731
Tk New
opera183 326 563
New
opera %61% 65% 77%
68
PROJECTIONS FOR NON BULK PRODUCTS ALL MODES Annual Growth Rate "NON BULK" Traffic Intra & Extra EU
Zone National International Total
EU 15 1.7% 3.4% 1.9% EU10 3.2% 10.1% 3.8% EU25 1.8% 4.4% 2.2%
Intra EU (2004-2020 %)
Zone Import Export Total
EU 15 5.9% 4.0% 5.2% EU10 8.8% 8.5% 8.7% EU25 6.3% 4.9% 5.7%
Extra EU (2006-2020 %)
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
69
RAIL MODAL SHARE NATIONAL & INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC
MODAL SHARE
FOR RAIL (RAIL +
ROAD TOTAL NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL
REFENCE 2020 ALL
RAIL 20 16 28 NEWOPERA
SCENARIO ALL
RAIL 29 16 47
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
70
SHIFT FROM ROAD TO RAIL: INTERMODAL TRAFFIC
144 BILLIONS OF TKM ON THE RAIL NETWORK
131 BILLIONS OF TKM ON NEW OPERA NETWORK (91%)
INTRA EU
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
71
IMPACT ON ROAD NETWORK
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
72
EXTRA EU TRAFFIC: SHIFT FROM ROAD & FEEDER TO RAIL 86 BL /TKM WITH
80 BL/TKM ON NEWOPERA NETWORK
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
73
THANK YOU!
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
THE NETWORK DIMENSION
74
NEWOPERA
BRUSSELS -SEP.30th- 2008
Final Conference
THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIMENSION
by Christophe Keseljevic
75
ASSOCIATE TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS TO FINANCIAL FIGURES FOR PROJECT COHERENCE
SUGGEST MEASURES FOR ELABORATING A REALISTIC IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
THE CHALLENGES
COSTS RELATED TO NEEDED PROJECT IMPROVEMENTS ?
RAIL TRAFFIC:WHICH
EXPECTED EVOLUTIONS ?
WHICH EXPECTED BENEFITS ?
HOW MUCH CAN BE INVESTED ON
THE NETWORK?(TOTAL SOCIO
ECONOMIC JUSTIFIABLE AMOUNT
WHICH MIX OF RELEVANT
REALISTIC INVESTMENTS
CONSIDERING PRIORITIES,
EXISTING PROGRAMMES,
RISKS ?
CONCLUSIONS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
76
Project Appraisal Methodology Definition :RAILPAG
OVERVIEW- LINKS-
METHODOLOGY
SCENARIOS TO BE ASSESSED
SOCIO-ECONOMIC &
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
RECOMMENDATIONS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
WHAT- Infrastructure
Bottlenecks -Priority Rules WHEN- Time Horizons WHERE - Network Corridors
INPUTS FROM
NEWOPERA WPS NATIONAL PROJECTS EUROPEAN PROJECTS OTHERS
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS RESULTS SYNTHESIS MAPS
77
COSTS BENEFIT ASSESSMENT METHOD
METHODOLOGY ELABORATED BY EIB WITH DG TREN
COST-BENEFITS ANALYSIS INTEGRATING NON-MONETISED EFFECT
ADAPTABLE TO NEWOPERA CHARACTERISTICS
- EUROPEAN SCALE PROJECT
- MANY TYPES OF STAKEHOLDERS
- FOCUS ON ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS AS WELL AS ECONOMIC ONES
- ALLOWS TO INTEGRATE EUROPEAN CURRENT WORKS ON EXTERNAL EFFECTS
MAIN OUTPUT A STAKEHOLDER/EFFECTS S/E MATRIX (MAIN NOVELTY OF RAILPAG).
PROPOSITION BASED ON THE RAILPAG APPROACH
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
78
THE SPATIAL DIMENSION
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS ON TRAFFIC FLOW
MORE AVAILABLE DATA
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN MORE REALISTIC
MAJOR EUROPEAN CORRIDOR
GREAT POTENTIAL OF GROWTH
WILL BENEFIT IN A NEAR FUTURE OF MAJOR INVESTMENTS (NEW UIC GAUGE LINE IN SPAIN
LESS SCRUTINISED THAN THE ROTTERDAM / ANVERS – MILANO / GENOA CORRIDOR
NORTH /SOUTH - EAST/WEST CORRIDOR
INTEGRATING WITH OTHER CORRIDORS
PART OF FERRMED AXE
THE ASSESSMENT METHOD CAN BE USED FOR ANY OTHER ONE
ASSESSING THE NEWOPERA NETWORK FOCUS ON STRATEGIC MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR
79
MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST
80
MARKET REGULATION
COMMERCIAL INNOVATION
ROLLING STOCK
OPERATING SYSTEM
INFRASTRUCTURE
NEW Technologies
MARKET PERFORMANC
E
INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION
Planning
RAIL TRANSPORT SYSTEM INTEGRATION FOR SCENARIOS
Juin 2008©NESTEAR
DEFINITION OF A DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
81
SYNTESIS OF MUTATION
PATH SCENARIOS
2010
EUROPE
AN RAIL
REFORM
2015 RAIL
CONSOLID.
PERFORM
ANCE
2020
ENTRY IN
NEW RAIL
CENTURY
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
2010
RAIL SHARE NOT DECLINING RAIL SYSTEM OPEN TO COMPETITION SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS OF NEW ENTRANTS AND PORT SERVICES.
2015
INCREASE IN RAIL PRODUCTIVITY MODERNISATION OF ROLLING STOCK
LONGER AND HEAVIER TRAINS
2020
ERTMS IMPLEMENTATION CORRIDORS MANAG.-CONTRACT RULES FOR SLOTS ALLOCATION
82
TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
-87653 -159299 241747 233736 GAIN/LOSS
162001 1423027 563149 731535
NEWOPERA SCENARIO
2020
249654 1582326 321403 497799
REFERENCE 2020
MM TK FEEDER
MM TK ROAD
MM TK NEW OPERA NETWORK
MM TK GLOBAL
RAIL
TOTAL FLOWS 2020
NEWOPERA NETWORK ABSORBS SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF THE TOTAL RAIL FREIGHT IN TONS/KM IN EUROPE. THE NEWOPERA NETWORK UTILISATION REPRESENTS 59 % OF THE TOTAL RAIL TRAFFIC AND 66 % FOR TRANSPORT DISTANCES ABOVE 800 KM. Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
83
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGIES OVERVIEW USED AT NATIONAL AND
EU LEVEL. REFERENCE TO UNIT VALUE EMISSIONS
RAIL UNIT EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF OPERATING CONTEXT RELATED TO TOPOGRAPHY, GEOGRAPHICAL ZONES, URBAN, RURAL AREAS, TYPE OF ROLLING STOCK AND TRAINS COMPOSITION
ROAD UNIT EMISSION ALSO RELATED TO GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT ON OPERATING SYSTEMS ASSESSING THE REDUCTION OF ROAD ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT FOR TRAFFIC TRANSFER TO RAIL
ILLUSTRATION OF THE PROPOSED ENVIRONMENTAL METHODOLOGY USING GIS TOOL AT DIFFERENT LOCAL - REGIONAL- CORRIDOR OR NATIONAL LEVEL.
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
84
CO2 EMISSIONS FOR ROAD
DIFFERENTIAL OF CO2 EMISSIONS BY ROAD AND COMBINED FLOWS WITH + 30 % ROAD COST ON TRANSALPINE -TRANS PYRENEE TRAFFIC
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
85
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
BY TRANSFER FROM ROAD ON TRANS-ALPINE-PYRENEE TRAFFIC
REDUCED CO2 EMISSIONS 2020
86
EXPECTED REDUCTION ON NOISE LEVEL
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
0 20 40 60 80 100
Number of pass-byes /24h
dB
(A) Today
2020 best case
2020 most probable
IMPROVEMENTS
TO ALLOW HIGHER RAIL TRAFFIC IMPLYING AN ACCEPTABLE NOISE LEVEL
TECHNOLOGY
REACHABLE BUT NECESSITATES ACCELERATION IN THE ROLLING STOCK RENEWAL OR REFITTING
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
87
PRINCIPLES OF A COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
IS THE PROJECT WORTHWHILE ?
COMPARISON WITH/WITHOUT PROJECT
OVERALL ECONOMIC IMPACT
CHANGE IN TRANSPORT USER BENEFITS (CONSUMER SURPLUS)
CHANGE IN SYSTEM OPERATING COSTS AND REVENUES(PRODUCER GOVERNMENT SURPLUS)
CHANGE IN COSTS OF EXTERNALITIES
INVESTMENT COSTS INCLUDING MITIGATION MEASURES
€€€ =
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
+
+
-
88
PRINCIPLES OF COSTS BENEFITS ANALYSIS
ANNUAL BENEFITS OF THE PROJECTS
SCENARIO I
COST OF THE PROJECT PER YEAR
SAVED TIME SAVED COSTS COMPARED TO OTHER MODES EXTERNAL BENEFITS SECURITY & ENVIRONMENT
INITIAL SERVICE OPENING
ADAPTATED SERVICE TO INCREASED DEMAND IN N YEARS
RAIL SYSTEM ADDITIONAL EXPLOITATION COSTS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
89
STAKEHOLDERS / EFFECTS MATRIX
MATRIX FOR MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR IRR 5,5%
ROAD TO RAIL
SHIPPER ROAD
OPER. RAIL
OPER. RAIL
MANAGER
INVEST
MENTS NON
USERS ECON. €
VALUE
Users Change in transport costs 12 251,8 12 251,8 Additional revenues 23 790,9 23 790,9
OPERATION Track charges -7 655,4 7 655,4 0,0 Additional operating costs -13 972,7 -13 972,7 Change in benefit -2 161,2 -2 161,2 ASSETS Infrastructure -13 000,0 -13 000,0 Infrastructure maintenance -7 655,4 -7 655,4 Safety 922,5 922,5 Green house effect gaz emissions 514,8 514,8 Air pollution 0,0 Climatic change 0,0
ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY 12 251,8 -2 161,2 2 162,8 0,0 -13 000,0 1 437,2 690,7
CHANGE IN
TRANSPOR
T COSTS
CHANGE IN
BENEFITS
ADDITIONAL
REVENUES,
TRACK
CHARGES,
OPERATING
COSTS
NEUTRAL
EFFECT
ADDITIONAL
NEEDED
FINANCIAL
CONTRIBUTION
CHANGE IN
EXTERNAL
EFFECTS
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
90
CORRIDOR MADRID - BERLIN RESULTS
WHEN VALUING POSITIVE EXTERNAL EFFECTS INDUCED BY A MODAL SHIFT FROM ROAD TO RAIL IT WOULD BE SOCIO-ECONOMICALLY VIABLE TO INVEST -GLOBAL AMOUNTS IN RAIL FREIGHT INFRASTRUCTURE ONLY-
SUFFICIENT TO IMPLEMENT ALL THE MEASURES IDENTIFIED WITHIN THE NEWOPERA SCOPE SCENARIO ?
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
NEWOPERA ASSUMPTIONS
13 G€ ON THE CORRIDOR
43 G€ ON THE WHOLE NEW OPERA NETWORK
91
NEEDED TO BE DONE ON THE MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN EXTREME SYNTHESIS
GAUGE CHANGE AND/OR 3RD RAIL TRACK ON THE PORT-BOU – BARCELONA SECTION
GB1 GAUGE
750 MT SIDINGS
NEW HIGH-SPEED LINE AVOIDING NÎMES AND MONTPELLIER (2013)
REINFORCEMENT SUBSTATIONS BETWEEN MONTPELLIER AND PERPIGNAN
LYON FREIGHT AVOIDING LINE 1ST PART
ERTMS THROUGHOUT LEVEL 2 ON NEW LINES
LINE UPGRADING BETWEEN SAARBRÜCKEN AND LUDWIGSHAFEN
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
92
NEEDED TO BE DONE ON THE MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR AND PROSECUTION TO WARSAW
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN EXTREME SYNTHESIS
RECONSTRUCTION OF 8 BORDER BRIDGES ON THE ODER AND THE NEISS STARTING 2008 WITH THE ODERBRUCKE IN FRANKFURT/ODER.
MODERNIZATION OF THE TRACK AND ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY BETWEEN BERLIN AND POZNAN
DOUBLING OF THE TRACK FROM KNAPPENRODE TO HORKA AND ELECTRIFICATION THROUGHOUT TO WEGLINIEC IN ORDER TO CREATE A SECOND ALL ELECTRIFIED TRUNK ROUTE BETWEEN GERMANY AND POLAND WITH A HIGH FREIGHT PRIORITY.
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
PROVIDED BY
93
BASEL-MANNHEIM FREIGHT DEDICATED LINE: COMPLETED IN VARIOUS STAGES IN 2012-2015-2020
TWO ALTERNATIVES IN SWITZERLAND: LOETCHBERG/SIMPLON/LUINO/B.ARSIZIO/NOVARA COMPLETED 2007 AND GOTHARD/CHIASSO IN 2015
MONTE CENERI TUNNEL IN COMPLETED 2019
TWO ADDITIONAL TRACKS FROM MONTE OLIMPINO ON COMO-MILANO COMPLETED 2017
GENOA/MILAN THIRD RAIL TUNNEL???? PRIVATE INTEREST OFFERED TO BUIL IT BY 2016 ON 50 YEARS CONCESSION.
GENOA-ROTTERDAM INTERMODAL CORRIDOR IN 2020
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
94
GENOA-ROTTERDAM TECHNICAL DETAILS
FULL CORRIDOR OPENING 2020
HUGE CAPACITY GENERATED FOR FREIGHT
GAUGE “C”
MAXIMUM GRADIENT 12%O
CORRIDOR DISTANCE REDUCTION
REDUCTION 50% ON PREVIOUS TRANSIT TIME
CORRIDORS MANAGEMENT IN OPERATION
HUBS AND TERMINALS ON THE LINE MUST BE ADEQUATE TO NEW CAPACITY (B.ARSIZIO-NOVARA-WOIPPY-MANNEHEIM-RTD-ANTWERP)
LONGER TRAINS 1000 TO 1500 MT
STANDARDISED EUROPEAN ERTMS/ETCS LEVEL 2 SIGNALLING SYSTEM LEADING TO LEVEL 3
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
95
BETUWE LINE INTERMODAL CORRIDOR IN 2020
DEDICATED TO FREIGHT IN 2007 RTD-ZEVENAAR
EMMERICH/OBERHAUSEN BY 2015
GAUGE “C”
TECHNICAL SPECIFICATION DOUBLE STACK
LONGER TRAINS 1500M
CORRIDORS MANAGEMENT
STANDARDISED EUROPEAN ERTMS/ETCS LEVEL 2-3
HUBS/TERMINALS ADEQUATE TO NEW CAPACITY
LINE’S CAPACITY DOES NOT MAKE NECESSARY DOUBLE STACK FOR THE TIME BEING
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
96
NEWOPERA PROJECT
STRENGHTS AND ORIGINALITY
VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES HYPOTHESIS & REAL COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS
SCENARIOS TO BE COMPARED TO A “IF NOT” STRATEGY (IF NOT MEANS NEW MOTORWAYS MEGA TRUCKS CONGESTION, CLIMATE CHANGE etc)
TOTAL INFRA INVESTMENT LIMITED AND REALISTIC MAXIMISE THE USE OF EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE
RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE ENCOURAGED : ROLLING STOCK UPGRADE(EIB ?)
ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVES(INCITATIVE TOLLS ?)
UPGRADING SIDINGS AND EQUIPMENT FOR LONGER TRAINS
INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
97
BASIC CONCLUSIONS IN
EXTREME SYNTHESIS
NO NEED TO BUILD FROM SCRATCH A NEW FREIGHT NETWORK FOR ACHIEVING MODAL SHIFT TO RAIL
PROPER ADAPTATIONS COUPLED WITH THE COMPLETION OF ONGOING PROJECTS - EXISTING NETWORK CAN SUSTAIN A THREEFOLD INCREASE OF TRAFFIC IF PROPER MEASURES RECOMMENDED BY NEWOPERA PROJECT ARE IMPLEMENTED
INVESTING IN RAIL IS THE RIGHT CHOICE FOR DEALING WITH THE FREIGHT TRAFFIC INCREASE. IT IS THE BEST COST-EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR SOCIETY
Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
HARMONISE TECHNICALPARAMETERS
REMOVING BOTTLENECKS
FACILITATE OPERATION
REMOVE ADMIN. BARRIERS
INCREASE CAPACITY
IMPROVE INTERPERABILITY
ELIMINATE DISCREPANCIES
PROVIDE SEAMLESS TRAFFIC
98
THANK YOU! Brussels- Sept 30th 2008
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ON ALL PRESENTED DIMENSIONS ARE
DESCRIBED IN DETAIL ON THE NEWOPERA REPORT BOOK DISTRIBUTED TO ALL OF YOU
ALL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE ON THE 24 DELIVERABLES PRESENTED TO THE EU
COMMISSION
NEWOPERA PROJECT IS FINISHING TODAY
- 45 MONTHS OF RESEARCH -