The changing dynamics of east coast gas markets
Sydney
22 October 2013
• 36 downstream energy companies
• The “UN” of gas policy in Australia
• Upstream gas suppliers, retailers,
pipeline owners, customers
esaa
• Australia has been deindustrializing for a
generation – what can/do we want to do
about it?
• East Coast reservation policy doesn’t
make sense
• Preservation or transformation
Outline
2005-13 NEM target demand (GWh)
192,000
194,000
196,000
198,000
200,000
202,000
204,000
206,000
208,000
210,000
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
• Detailed modeling three years away
• Initial estimates of changes:
– 50 per cent – AUD/industrial demand
– 15 per cent – price effect
– 15 per cent – PV
Electricity Demand in Australia - AEMO
Energy price rises – public view
Eastern states annual energy consumption
growth rate 1960-61 to 2010-11
Australian energy intensity
Low growth is a common theme
Historical consumption
Historical east coast gas consumption
Historical consumption
Demand projections continue to be dialled down
Demand projections continue to be dialled down
Demand projections continue to be dialled down
Gas fired generation likely to slow
Judisch: Germany: weak carbon price, high
renewables penetration, high gas price
Gas prices difficult to predict
Future contingent on fuel prices
Existing gas and oil infrastructure – Aus vs US
CSG dominates the supply outlook
• Remaining east coast gas reserves and contingent resources
East coast gas basins and transmission pipelines
NSW is most exposed
4,225
• 0.1 per cent of NSW Senate vote
• 1.4 per cent of CSG community vote
• Half that of the Smokers’ Rights Party and Bullet Train for Australia party
• One third of the Pirate Party
• One tenth of the Sex Party
Mini Antony Green
• It’s been gradually occurring for more
than a generation
• Major energy customers are hurting
• Reservation policy isn’t the solution
• Preservation or transformation?
Deindustrialisation
