h"p://www.c40ci,es.org/
Megacities Carbon Project Overview
9May2012RileyDuren
ChiefSystemsEngineerEarthScience&Technology
JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaIns,tuteofTechnology
collaboratorsfromJPL,Caltech,ArizonaStateUniversity,PennStateUniversity,NIST,NOAA,UCLA,LawrenceBerkeleyNa,onalLab,HarvardUniversity,CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,AQMD,LeLaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetl'Environnement,Scripps,Earth
Networks,ResourcesfortheFuture,NASAGISS,ColumbiaUniversity,Associa,ondesurveillancedelaqualitédel'airenÎle‐de‐France
Allmaterialcontainedhereinispre‐decisional,fordiscussiononly.
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CopyrightCaltech,governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.CL#12‐5384
Outline
• History• Mo,va,on• Projectconcept– Vision– Keyelements
– No,onalarchitecture• Opportuni,es&Challenges• Topicsandworkshopapproach
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History• 20081stGreenhouseGasInforma,onSystemworkshop(DOE/NOAA/NASA)
• 20091stGHGIS/ICOSmee,ng(US/Europe)–megaci,esdiscussionsstart• 2010
– NRCreportongreenhousegasverifica,on– KISSworkshoponQuan,fyingSourcesandSinksofCO2– NISTGHGQuan,fica,onandVerifica,onworkshop– NASACarbonMonitoringSystem(congressionalmandate)
– CARB/NOAACalnexcampaign
– ANRMEGAPARISproject
• 2011– 1st&2ndMegaci,esworkshops(LA/JPL&Paris/AIRPARIF)
– NISTINFLUXexperiment(Indianapolis)
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Also,relatedstudiesbyWofsyetalinBoston,SaltLakeCity,etc
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Relevance:Ci,esma"er75%ofglobalfossil‐fuelCO2
Source:Ci#esandClimateChange:anurgentagenda,WorldBank,2010
Urgency:ci,esareundergoingrapidchange
5
• BothwithStabiliza5on– GreenLAPlan(2007)
• 35%(vs1990)by2030
– ParisClimatePlan(2007)• 25%(vs2004)by2020
andGrowth• Globalurbaniza,onwilldoubleby2050• Explosivegrowthindevelopingmegaci,es popula#on>4%/year emissions>10%/year
h"p://live.c40ci,es.org/
Hes,a,1km
Right:GriddedannualfossilfuelCO2emissionsfromamedium‐sizecity(Indianapolis)showdis,nctgradientsatdifferentspa,alscales.Right:CDIAC2006emissionsfortheCONUSplo"edona1°(~100km)showavgflux200‐600gC/m2/yr.Middle:Vulcan2002emissionsforthe~10,000km2areacenteredonIndianapolisona10kmgrid.Les:Hes,a2002emissionsfortheurbancoreona1kmgrid.TheVulcanandHes,aplotsuselog‐normalscales(typically>20,000gC/m2/yr).
Pragma,sm:measuringCO2fromci,esismoretractablethancountries
CO2atlocalscalesismoreintensethanatlargerscales
CH4isalsoimportant
HsuetalAtmoEnviron,2010
Seealso:
June1(Bloomberg)‐‐FormerU.S.PresidentBillClintonurgedci,esandtheWorldBanktoworkoncurbingmethaneemissionsfromlandfillsandcharcoal,sayingthosestepsfirstwouldbuy,meinthefightagainstglobalwarming.Poli,ciansmayneedyearstoworkoutawaytolimitthecarbondioxideproducedbyburningfossilfuels,anditwouldcheaperandquickertofocusonothergasesfirst,ClintonsaidattheC40mee,ngofmayorsfromtheworld’slargestci,esinSaoPaulotoday.Methanehas25,mestheglobalwarmingimpactofcarbondioxide…
Peischeletal2010,Calnex,LACH4
Challenges• Theul,mateimpactsoflocalmi,ga,onac,onscannotyetbeverified
– InventoriesofGHGsprovidebo"om‐upes,matesbasedonac,vitydata– Reportedannualuncertain,esrangefrommodest(5%)tolarge(>50%)– Nodirecta"ribu,onofatmosphericCO2orCH4toagivenen,ty
• Overthe,me‐spanofemissionpolicies(10+years),theseuncertain,escanexceedtheexpectedtrend(10’sof%)
• Intheabsenceofbe"ermeasures,wedon’tknowifourac,onsareadequateorcost‐effec,ve
• Be"erdataandmodelinghavethepoten,altoimprovethemeasuresthattellusifourlocalac,onsaremakingadifference
• However,weares,llgroundedinexploratorysciencemode– Methodologicalstudieshavenotyetaddressedcomplexmegaci,es– Evolvingcapabilityininstrumenta,on(surface,air,andsatellites)– Perhaps20yearsawayfromtransi,ontoanopera,onalcapabilityatthisrate
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TheU.S.Na,onalResearchCouncilrecognizedtheneedtofocusonurbandomes
(NRC,Pacalaetal2010)
“Recommenda,on.Extendtheinterna,onalatmosphericsamplingnetwork:Toresearchtheatmosphericdomesof
greenhousegasesoverarepresenta,vesampleoflarge
localemiDers,suchasci5esandpowerplants,
Thisresearchini,a,vewouldyielddataneededto
calibratesatellitemeasurementsoflargelocalemiDers,
demonstrateanindependentcapabilitytomonitorlarge
localemiDersfromgroundsta5onsandaircraI,and
documentlong‐termshiIsinfossil‐versusnon‐fossil‐fuel
sourcesinurbanandindustrialregions.Anini5algoal
couldbetodeployinstrumentsatasta5s5calsampleof
largeemiDers(e.g.,5‐10).
9OurconceptstartswithLA,Paris,andTBD3rdcityinSouthAmericaorAsia‐
andisdesignedtobeexpandable
Megaci,esCarbonProject• AglobalmonitoringsystemforurbanCO2andCH4willofferac,onableinforma,onto
a"ributeandevaluatetheeffectsofclimatepolicies– IFthemeasurementsandanaly,calmethodscanbeshowntobeaccurateandcost‐effec,ve– IFtheycanworkreliablyincomplex“emissionsenvironments”(megaci,es)
• Ul,mately,anopera,onalsystemcouldconsistof:– Highaccuracysurfacemeasurementsin20+representa,vemegaci,es
– Densesatelliteobserva,onsofallmajorci,es&otherlocalizedsources
– Improvedbo"om‐upemissionsmodeling
– Analysistointegratetop‐down&bo"om‐updataconnec,ngtrendswithac,on
• Aninterna,onalpilotprojectcanbridgebetweentoday’smethodologicalstudiesandthatfutureopera,onalsystem(ini,ally3ci,es,butexpandable)– Sustained(5+yr)monitoringtodetecttrendsinemissions
– Demonstrateconfidenceinmi,ga,onac,onsbyvalida,ngtheireffects
– Buildtechnicalandscien,ficcapacity(infrastructureandknowledge)
– Transparentdatasharingandcomparisontopromoteconfidenceandtrust
10Allres5ngonscien5ficprinciplesandcredibility
Vision:towardsanopera,onalmonitoringsystem
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2010 2015 2020
Site1
Site2
Near‐termSatellites
Nextgenera,onsatellites
INFLUX(NIST)
Megaci,esCarbonPilot(2012‐2017) GlobalUrban
MonitoringSystem
Exis,ngsurfacenetworksinLA,
Paris,…
Calnex(CARB/NOAA)
CMS(NASA)
Afewcarefullyselectedmegaci,es
Afirststeptowardforminganinterna,onalpilotprojectto:
• Expandthesciencebasenecessarytosupportrobust,reliable,andeffec,veGHGdetermina,onsforci,es,
• Advancethenecessarymeasurementcapabili,esandscien,ficknowledgethroughcontribu,onsfromallpar,cipants,
• Movetowardinterna,onalrecogni,onofstandardmethodologiestomeasureandcharacterizeurbanGHGdomesandquan,fytheirdynamics,and
• AssurethosechargedwithformingGHGmi,ga,onpoliciesgloballythatameansisavailabletoquan,fytheperformanceofthosepolicies.
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LosAngeles Paris SaoPaulo(TBD) Beijing/Tianjin(TBD)
Whilebeingwaryofexpandingtooquickly(walkthenrun);Moreonthistomorrow....
WhyLosAngeles?• Textbookmegacity
– LAcounty:#1CO2emi"erinUS(,edwithHarrisCounty,TX)– LAmegacity(SCAB)islargestCO2emi"erinCalifornia(*)
– Largetransporta,onsec,on– LargestseaportintheUS– 1/3ofthestate’sCH4emissionsfromlandfills
– Significantnaturalgasinfrastructure– Complexmeteorology&geography
• Establishedobserva,onalnetwork(Caltech,Mt.Wilson,PalosVerdes)
• Cri,calmassoflocalresearchins,tutes(JPL,Caltech,UCLA,UCI,UCR)
• Climatepolicyleadership(LAMayor’sOffice,CARB)
h"p://www.c40ci,es.org/13
delaRueduCan,etal(2008)
*
***
No,onalLAMegacityObservingNetwork
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NewGHGsta,onsExis,ng/plannedGHGsta,on
100km
MegacityDomain(SouthCoastAirBasin*)OCO‐2groundtrack
Notillustrated:• Densesurfacemeteorologynetwork• Boundarylayerprofilers• Ex‐urbanfluxtowers
*allofOrangeCountyandthenon‐desertpor,onsofLosAngeles,SanBernardino,andRiversideCoun,es
Preliminaryandpre‐decisional
Keyobserva,onalelements
In‐situsensorsandflasksCalnexresults,Pasadena,NewmanetalAPCD2012
Fixedcolumnobserva,ons,Wunchetal,GRL,2009
Scanningpar,alcolumnobserva,onsfromMt.Wilson(CLARS,Sanderetal)
Airborneobserva,ons(Calnex,Wofsyetal2010)
1
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Boundarylayer&surfacemet(aserLuandTurco1995)
Otherkeyelements
• Nestedtracertransportmodels• Observa,onsofboundary
condi,ons
• Space‐,meresolvedCO2andCH4emissiondataproducts(Vulcan/Hes,a,etc)
• DataQC,calibra,onmeta‐data,uncertaintyquan,fica,on
• A"ribu,onandtrendanalysis• Valida,on• Datasharingandstewardship• Sustainedengagementwith
stakeholders16
D1:Global‐GEOS‐CHEM2°x2.5°D2:N.America‐GEOS‐CHEM0.5°x0.667°
D3:WesternUS‐WRF12kmx12kmD4:SoCal‐WRF4kmx4km
Gurneyetal,Gridded(2500mX2500m)CO2emissions
Pu~ngitalltogether(no,onalsystemarchitecture)
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Surfacein‐situCO2,CH4,CO,others(?)
SurfaceremotesensedCO2,CH4(CLARS&TCCONFTS)
Intensiveobs(aircrasandsurface
mobile)
Satelliteobs(GOSAT,MOPITT,OCO‐2/‐3,MODIS,
OMI)
NestedMesoscaleModelsWRF/chem‐VRPM
WRF/LPDM‐VPRM/CASAWRF‐STILT
CHIMERE‐ORCHIDEE
High‐resurbanCO2/CH4emissiondataproductsVulcan/Hes,a
FFDAS
Meta‐analysis:A"ribu,onandTrend
assessment
priors
Fluxes,mates&uncertain,es
DataExchangesystem
PBLprofiles&surfacemet(varioussensors)
BoundaryCondi,ons
Fluxes,mates&uncertain,es
Reportedemissions&uncertain,es
DataExchangesystem
GlobalModelsCMS(GEOS‐chem)CarbonTracker
LMDZLETKF
Othermethods(e.g.,tracer‐tracer)
Otherci,es
Urban/regionalInventories
CARBAIRPARIF
Valida,on
Towardswell‐posedques,ons
DetectnettrendsinanthropogenicCO2andCH4
emissionsfrommegaci,es(e.g.,10%over5ys)&linktomajorpolicyac,ons
VerifyCO2emissionsfromlargesta,onarypointsources
DetectCH4leaksfromnaturalgas
SurfaceNetworkofIn‐situtrace‐gas
sensors
SurfaceNetworkofPBL&Metsensors
Remotesensingobserva,ons
High‐accuracy,sustainedmeasurementofCO2,CH4,CO,othermixingra5os
Op5malsiteloca5ondrivenbyreceptor
footprintsIntensive
Campaigns(mobile&airborne)
Modelingsystems(fluxinversion,non‐inversefluxmethods,emissionmodels,&ensembletes,ng)
Periodicmeasurementofspa,algradients
Sustainedmeasurementofsystema,ctrends
Top‐downspa,almaps&net,me‐seriesofCO2&CH43Dfields&fluxes,2km,6
hour,formegacitydomains
Bo"om‐upmapsand,me‐seriesofanthr.CO2&CH4emissions,2km,6hour,formegacitydomains
Analysis:a"ribu,on,trendassessment,and
linkagetoinventoriesand
policies Transparentdatasharingsystem
Precisioncolumnmixingra5osofCO2,CH4,CO
withinmegacitydomainsandboundaries
Objec5ves DeliverableProducts Requiredprojectelements
Differentobjec#vesmayrequiredifferentcapabili#es
Highresolu,onancillaryobserva5onsofsurface
temps,3Durbanstructure,NDVI,LUE,etc
Opportunity/Complexityoverlappinginterestsandcapability
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Forillustra,ononly;figureisnotcomplete;overlapisno,onal
MEGAPARISCALGEM
Commercialventures(e.g.,EN)
NASA(CMS)
NOAA(GMD)
Scrippsnetwork
Megaci5esCarbonProject
NIST(INFLUX)
CARB(mul,pleprojects)
Challenges
• Relevantandresponsivetostakeholderneeds• Credibilityinthefaceofrelentlessscru,ny– Transparent(data,models,meta‐data,UQ,protocols)
– Traceableandcalibrated– Validated
• Sustainedcommitment(mul,‐yeartrends)– Con,nuityofcri,calobserva,ons– Guaranteedaccesstodata
Topicsforworkshop• ProjectObjec,ves• Needsfortracegasobserva,ons
• Fixednetwork:Howmany,loca,ons,whichspecies• Intensivecampaigns(surfacemobileandairborne)• Satelliteobserva,ons
• NeedsforABLandsurfacemetobserva,ons• NeedsfordataQC,calibra,on,&datastewardship• Needsformodeling• Analysis(a"ribu,on,trends,linkingtoac,ons)• Valida,on• Integra,on:bringingitalltogether• Programma,cs
• Projectpolicies:Datasharing,Releasingresults/publica,on• Capacitybuildingmechanisms• Interna,onalframeworkforcoordina,on
• Others?
Foreachtopic,consider:howgoodisgoodenough?Andaretherecity‐uniqueneeds?(quan,ta,vewherepossible)
