Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Overview of Caspian / Central Asian RegionGas Supplies
Mike WoodGaffney, Cline & Associates
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Agenda
Somewhat Turkmen-focussed but Regional context
A look at some significant recent events
What are the opportunities for the future?
Alternative regional options / additions to Turkmen gas
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© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 19623
Caspian Known Resources – 2007BP Statistics
Billio
n Cu
bic m
etre
s
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 19624
Caspian Known Resources – 2008BP Stats S. Yolotan (mid-case) and Shakh Deniz Ph 2
Billio
n Cu
bic m
etre
s
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Top Reservoir Full-Field depth map
Minara
S. Yolotan as Mapped in 2008
x
xx x
x
x
x
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Turkmenistan and the Recent Major Discoveries
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Current & Planned Gas Export lines
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Central Asia Gas Pipeline CAGP 30 BCM (+10?)
Korpej-Iran9 BCM,
Central Asia Europe Pipelines CAE 50-70 BCM
Proposed Pricaspiysky Gas Pipeline 10 + 10 BCM
Dovletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran
Proposed East West Pipeline10 – 30 Bcm
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Turkmen Production & Export – 2007/8
Production Capacity: ~70 Bcm/yrGas supply
–Russia: 45 Bcm/yr–Iran: 7 Bcm/yr–Domestic: 15 Bcm/yr
Total: 68 Bcm/yr
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© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Turkmen Gas Production & ExportIn 2009, export levels dropped significantly due to the termination of supplies to Russia.Export are understood to have resumed, but at much lower levels. Production capability is unchanged.Supplies to China have commenced – from developments in the Amu Darya.Production from South Yolotan is expected to commence in 2014, at 30 Bcm per year, increasing at 10 Bcm per year to 2018.
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© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Turkmenistan Gas Export Potential
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0
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60
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120
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160
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bcm
Year
China
Iran
Russia
Domestic
Production Capacity
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
What enabled the ‘China’ project?A Packaged arrangement:
It recognised all stakeholders (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & Turkmenistan) - each has a 30 BCM/yr export contractIncluded subsurface responsibility and facilities Development
– Sales volumes part sourced from its Amu Darya PSA– part from Turkmengas’s own resources (inc. S. Yolotan)
A pipeline brought to the doorAll necessary funding
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© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline
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© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 196213
What would be required for European supply?
Development of 10-30 BCM/yr capacity on South Yolotan - will take several years
Political agreement on a trans-Caspian route (involving all parties).
Additional work on the Turkmen domestic pipeline infrastructure – but East-West Line is approved by the President.
A unified approach by the potential buyers including a means of funding.
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
What are the Alternatives - IraqRecent Service Contract agreements in Iraq target 10 MMbbl / day within 7 years. The associated gas is the property of the state.After allowances for gas injection, 60 Bcm/yr of associated gas production is possible - excluding any non-associated gas production – target of the 3rd Iraq License Round.Current serious energy deficiencies - domestic power generation is generally oil-fired – so consumption is likely to grow considerably as gas becomes available.
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© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 196215
Iraq Energy StatisticsGas consumption in 2007 was 1.4 Bcm - consumed by industry. Electricity consumption in 2007 was 32 GWhOil is the prime fuel used for power generation. If associated gas were to be used, it would consume 10 Bcm/yr. (at current levels)According to the EIA there was 8.9 gigawatts of installed power capacity in 2006 - equivalent to 26 Bcm/yr of gas. (assumed to grow to 30 Bcm)
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Potential Gas Exports
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0
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70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
BCM
Year
Gas Production
Internal Consumption
Potential GasExports 30 Bcm/yr ??
© Gaffney, Cline & Associates
Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962
Regional Gas Supply Potential ??
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20 B
cm
20 Bcm
20 Bcm
20 Bcm