Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)
Joe Cordell
Spencer Timmons
Michael Fleischmann
Overview
Background Problem Abstract Network Overview (Nodes, Arcs) Mathematical Model Scenarios Results Conclusions Further Work Video Link
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Background
State of Alabama Major Cities: Birmingham, Montgomerey, Huntsville,
Mobile, Tuscaloosa Population: 4.7 million
Average 23 Tornados Per Year $13 million in average annual damages
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Background
Tornado Outbreak on April 27th 2011 165 tornados across the
United States 248 fatalities Over $16 billion in
damages over 3 days Listed by NOAA as the
fourth deadliest in United States history
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April 27th, 2011 – Tornados
62 Tornados in Alabama alone
2219 injuries 192 fatalities Only the second day in
history that there were three or more F5 or EF5 tornadoes.
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Background
Cordova Population: 2260 Two tornados Four fatalities
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Problem Abstract
Relief supply flow as a Min-Cost Flow Model Goal: To supply damaged cities in the least
amount of time and determine if prepositioning of supplies will affect total travel time
Key modifications to the basic model Randomized delay Interdiction represented by arc delays
Measures of Effectiveness: Total travel time Access to damaged cities
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Nodes
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Huntsville
Birmingham
Tuscaloosa
Arcs
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Huntsville
Birmingham
Tuscaloosa
Abstract Network
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April 27th, 2011 – Tornados
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We Modeled Jasper, AL Area
Mathematical Model
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MIN-COST FLOWObjective: Move humanitarian supplies to damaged towns in shortest time where costs are hours of movement required to deliver supplies.
There is a demand for supplies at each damaged town.
MATER looks at worst case scenario by implementation of a “smart” tornado which seeks to damage roads so as to inflict the greatest cost on the operator.
AirPort
City
t
City
sC=0
C=20
C=24
C=5
Mathematical Model
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MIN-COST FLOWObjective: Move humanitarian supplies to damaged towns in shortest time where costs are hours of movement required to deliver supplies.
There is a demand for supplies at each damaged town.
MATER looks at worst case scenario by implementation of a “smart” tornado which seeks to damage roads so as to inflict the greatest cost on the operator.
AirPort
City
City
s
-1
C=0
C=20
C=24 tC=50
C=5
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1aDestroyed Roads-Jasper Only
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
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Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2c Delays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
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Scenario 1: Operator Resilience Curve
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Scenario 1 Results
With roads completely destroyed, tornado quickly cuts off access to affected area. 5 Roads knocked out cuts off Jasper from relief supplies Must then use Chinook helicopters to deliver supplies to
the city, and vehicle delivery for surrounding areas affected less
Most damaging path with fewer destroyed roads is south of the city, taking out the roads from 2 of the 3 airports Supplies then flow through Huntsville Airport Main storm actually followed this path
Scenario 2: Operator Resilience Curve
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Scenario 2 Results
With delayed roads, ramp-up in time is more gradual Spikes when moving across multiple delayed roads
Most damaging tornado path remains the same No longer possible to cut off supplies to ground
shipment
Scenario 3: Operator Resilience Curve
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Scenario 3 Results
With supplies pre-positioned instead of flown-in, travel time is decreased, but not significantly Original flown-in supply model does not include flight
time to airport Change in travel time due to proximity of
prepositioned supplies to area
Prepositioned Supplies Comparison
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Model Useability
Model is easily customizable to a given scenario Can be used to show movement of supplies to any
affected city/area Scalable for multiple damaged cities via adding
demands to those nodes Can use flown-in supplies or prepositioned supplies
Useful to quickly formulate delivery plan for FEMA/military responders
Conclusions
Depending on the city, tornado damage can quickly cut off area from relief supplies if roads are rendered unusable Helicopter delivery via US Army National Guard would then be
necessary Best option for high network resiliency is to keep road
network in good repair and clear of neighboring trees Prepositioned stocks of relief supplies would not make a
large difference Must still get vehicles and personnel to distribute Not much closer than airports
Potential Future Work
Model entire state or other areas prone to natural disasters
Adjust model to depict hurricane or earthquake damage instead
Analyze changes in results with a more micro-resolution network (more roads, towns)
References
Map images and road distance maps.google.com
Past tornado path and strength data: www.tornadohistoryproject.com
City statistics/demographic info: www.city-data.com
Consolidated list of information and articles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
April_25%E2%80%9328,_2011_tornado_outbreak
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Questions?